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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 650
    cloaked7 said:

    New Elementary pointed out how high the goats are selling for. 2 of those in the MVR accounts for ~$30-40 right there. It tempts me to sell mine but I have ambitions of a rural setting on my train layout so I think I will hang on to them.

    Do wha.....!!! ? (like the minions say it)

    $15-20 for a LEGO goat? Is that more than a real goat kid would cost? Silly me, didn't even know the set has goats. Is it the only set that has them? Goats! I can't get over that. Goats, you say? :-)
    I would actually really like to own a goat but I can't seem to find any for sale in the US. I think they're cute. :) I'd be willing to pay like $10-$15, if anyone has one, FYI. It is interesting to note the demand for goats, as well as cows, which were also rare. They go for around $15 as well, I think.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Licensed sets saved TLG, I don't think it is killing TLG. As far as resellers, I don't that is the case either.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ True dat.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015

    The only real data point we have to go on for the UCS Tumbler is the UCS Batmobile #7784, which was available for about 2 1/2 months...and the Batmobile is more iconic than the Tumbler. I fully expect the Tumbler to be out less than a year. Orders for the Tumbler are going through "customer service" to ensure a fair distribution and spread the love around. The fact that Lego forced buyers into a store to purchase the Tumbler for the last 3-4 months of 2014 and [email protected] is still limiting the distribution of the Tumbler to one per customer speaks volumes to me. It's also doubtful the Tumbler will ever be featured in another Batman movie. All of this doesn't bode will for longevity...

    Interesting. I didn't know it was that difficult to purchase multiples of the Tumbler. That definitely must figure into the equation. The equation that determines if a set is a must buy with a good ROI.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Class of 2014 officially marked as retired on overseas [email protected] sites. Let the fun begin :)
    Pitfall69
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    #10245 :(
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    You can still order Santa's Workshop in the US. What are your thoughts on this set as it is officially retired in Great Britain?
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    Lucky you ;) , missed this one totally. Probably not the only one!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    Lucky you ;) , missed this one totally. Probably not the only one!

    How did you miss Santa's Workshop?

  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    S&H cancelled all orders when they went on sale in the UK. Oh well it might come back
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    S&H cancelled all orders when they went on sale in the UK. Oh well it might come back

    Interesting. Why did Lego cancel all the orders?

  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    They had none to sell in the first place.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,302
    Pitfall69 said:

    You can still order Santa's Workshop in the US. What are your thoughts on this set as it is officially retired in Great Britain?

    I think this will be available again in the UK in the winter, they did the same with Winter Village Market (although I don't know if it was listed as retired it was certainly not available to purchase) so I think it's a typical [email protected] stick whatever label on it that works scenario.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,548
    binaryeye said:

    ^ That's odd. The BL average for the minifigures and horses alone is $55. I wonder if demand for Merry and the Ringwraiths is influencing sellers to parts these out and sell them separately.

    I've recently parted one out. Merry went for £15 (before BL and paypal fees), ringwraith plus horse plus sword and saddle about £10 each, so that's the £35 / $55. Aragorn and Frodo are not worth a huge amount, maybe £5-6 for the pair. The rest of the bricks according to BL are worth just under £28 using 6-month sold averages. So to sell them, you'd get probably £15-20 maximum without a long wait. That puts the part out value at about £55-60. You can get the same by selling the set in one go. RRP was £50 here.

    The one I parted out cost £25, so I'm happy enough to sell off the minifigs and keep the bricks (which was always the intention) while making probably £5 on it. However, for a set seller that has no interest in the bricks, I doubt that it is worth the effort splitting out the minifigs. Even if they bought at 50% off.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763

    cloaked7 said:

    New Elementary pointed out how high the goats are selling for. 2 of those in the MVR accounts for ~$30-40 right there. It tempts me to sell mine but I have ambitions of a rural setting on my train layout so I think I will hang on to them.

    Do wha.....!!! ? (like the minions say it)

    $15-20 for a LEGO goat? Is that more than a real goat kid would cost? Silly me, didn't even know the set has goats. Is it the only set that has them? Goats! I can't get over that. Goats, you say? :-)
    I would actually really like to own a goat but I can't seem to find any for sale in the US. I think they're cute. :) I'd be willing to pay like $10-$15, if anyone has one, FYI. It is interesting to note the demand for goats, as well as cows, which were also rare. They go for around $15 as well, I think.

    Here is my Amazon review for the Mill set that I left back in 2011, heh. How'd I'd sure love to buy a bunch more at $49...


    sidersddBrickarmor
  • LegoTTLegoTT Member Posts: 483
    Agree with Farmer John on this one- I don't see how the Tumbler goes 'way' up in the future. the biggest thing working against it is the fact that a new Batman Universe is about to kick off....if successful, that Batmobile may have more longevity due to the universe 'existing' longer. Who knows. There is also a huge following the DK Trilogy. Only time will tell....
  • lordzaraklordzarak OH, United StatesMember Posts: 329
    edited February 2015
    Santa's Workshop is still apparently in production, given that I ordered 2 in January, and [email protected] US is expecting more. Has a Winter Village set ever continued production past the winter season? Usually they go into summer hibernation before their second year run.
  • knooseknoose Member Posts: 45
    I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on AA 10937? I have people wanted to buy it on BL for $250.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    The winter sets retire in europe/asia and come back in in the fall. In the USA it is christmas 365 days per year so they remain in production year round.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    cloaked7 said:

    Do wha.....!!! ? (like the minions say it)

    $15-20 for a LEGO goat? Is that more than a real goat kid would cost? Silly me, didn't even know the set has goats. Is it the only set that has them? Goats! I can't get over that. Goats, you say? :-)

    Uh oh...someone let the Aggies loose on Brickset. Quick...someone alert the Mods!

    :wink:
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ ROTFL

    Yup, it looks like it would be an obvious grand slam if LEGO created a farm set with lots of animals. They always have several animal Duplop sets. A regular LEGO farm set with a farm house, barn, silo, tractor, wagon, fencing, and errr.... animals! Lots and lots of goats! And, cows, horses, pigs, chickens, sheep, and a (ahem) rooster.

    And, they have Duplop zoo sets too. So why not a regular LEGO zoo set?

    Sorry, a bit (ok, a way) off track for this thread, but the goats caused it! :-)
    Ronyarwagnerml2Goldchains
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,302
    cloaked7 said:

    And, they have Duplop zoo sets too. So why not a regular LEGO zoo set?

    Sorry, a bit (ok, a way) off track for this thread, but the goats caused it! :-)

    A Zoo is one of my long term MOC plans for that magical time in the future when I have the time, space and parts to work on it. If TLG bought out a small modular zoo line I'd instantly abandon the MOC plans and just buy all of those!

    Damn that distracting goat! (Beware the OT Goat!)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,666
    After seeing that retired list, kinda wish I had gotten a few more of #42006
    But I think something is amiss with that list if the #60064 Arctic Supply plane is already designated as 'retired' (was it an exclusive as I see those sold out at US [email protected] a well) 60058 SUV with Watercraft and #60059 logging trucks retiring area bit of a surprise as well.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    After seeing that retired list, kinda wish I had gotten a few more of #42006

    Yup, construction sets always do well.

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    prevere said:

    cloaked7 said:

    The $64,000 question about the Tumbler is.... when will it retire? Will it be another Death Star? Another MMV? What's to keep LEGO from making it for 5 years?

    I'm thinking 3 years. But if you wait until the near end to buy some, it'll be too late at that point. For serious stock on these big sets, you almost have to set an estimated EOL (extremely difficult to do), and start buying 6 months before that.
    At $200 a pop I can not get aboard the hoard train just yet. This set will be on my radar mid to late 2016. If I miss it, so be it, there are plenty of other sets to invest in. I am not having another stack of sets sitting in storage for 5+ years. I am looking at you death star.

    Pitfall69Farmer_Johnjuggles7Brickarmor
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,666
    cloaked7 said:

    After seeing that retired list, kinda wish I had gotten a few more of #42006

    Yup, construction sets always do well.

    Yeah but it is the price point I like. I mean I know a set like Technic RC excavator does well EOL but it is a huge box and costly initially. This was a much smaller box and for only 79.99 USD Retail, though not on sale much this is one of those sleepers I think.
    cloaked7
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,344
    ^Very happy with the stash I got for £27 each from Asda.
    It was not long after release so they've had to sit for a while but was too good a discount to pass on.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    edited February 2015
    ^ When the discount's good you've got to forget about everything else.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 905
    Same, massive stash from asda :smiley:
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    Was browsing toys r us earlier and the #42023 caught my eye. Three vehicles for a reasonable price. Anyone have high hopes for this one?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    No :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,666
    Regarding the #42023. I think it is too small to generate enough interest in the after market. Will it go up? Maybe but to really maximize the value you would need to buy a lot of them.

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    ^ ^^ ^^^ not worth the investment in my opinion.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Just buy 1 Tumbler. :-)
    TheLoneTensorAdeelZubairPitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The #42023 construction set does have a nice variety of Technic pieces and might be good for parting out. But either way, you probably want to get it at a discount...
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,651
    If I had £250 to spend I would purchase in the order shown:

    1. Modular Building (x2)
    2. The Tumbler
    3. MetalBerard's Sea Cow
    4. Sandcrawler
    5. Ewok Village
    6. The Simpsons House
    7. Sydney Opera House
    8. Tower Bridge
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Exo officially retires on the 25th
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Of February or March? Just to be clear...
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655

    ^Of February or March? Just to be clear...

    February.
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655

    ^Of February or March? Just to be clear...

    Lol love your picture. Victor Quartermaine right?
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,111
    I'm still amazed that they have advertised the discontinuation or retirement whatever you want to call it, of the Exo suit. I mean...why didn't they do this for the TH!
    juggles7AdeelZubairPitfall69Mordoor
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655

    I'm still amazed that they have advertised the discontinuation or retirement whatever you want to call it, of the Exo suit. I mean...why didn't they do this for the TH!

    Too much stock they need to sell. Overproduced due to initial response then sales hit rock bottom once back in stock.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    Lego's CEO picks at a daisy at his desk all day, picking petals one at a time. I love resellers...I hate resellers...I love resellers...I hate resellers...
    cloaked7brickupdateAdeelZubairTheLoneTensorPitfall69dougtsDadMrJ_NY
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    BACbrix said:

    ^Of February or March? Just to be clear...

    Lol love your picture. Victor Quartermaine right?
    Gotta love Victor! If Lego can do the Simpsons and Holy Grail minifigs, they ought to be able to find it in their heart to do Wallace and Gromit minifigs. I would be all over that!
    LostInTranslation
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655

    BACbrix said:

    ^Of February or March? Just to be clear...

    Lol love your picture. Victor Quartermaine right?
    Gotta love Victor! If Lego can do the Simpsons and Holy Grail minifigs, they ought to be able to find it in their heart to do Wallace and Gromit minifigs. I would be all over that!
    Curse of the Ware Rabbit hahaha genius movie. But back on topic so I'm not spam flagged again, if a new Millennium Falcon is made like most suspect, I wonder how #7965 will be affected.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    BACbrix said:

    I'm still amazed that they have advertised the discontinuation or retirement whatever you want to call it, of the Exo suit. I mean...why didn't they do this for the TH!

    Too much stock they need to sell. Overproduced due to initial response then sales hit rock bottom once back in stock.
    There is a simple solution for Lego to get rid of excess sets...including Chima sets, if that's even possible.

    1) Hire some interns who want to work for Lego (or even homeless people off the street in need of some spare change).
    2) Have them build something (anything) out of the parts in the box.
    3) Take a few pictures of the newly built set (and maybe even send a copy to @Huw to post on Brickset for publicity's sake).
    4) Photocopy the pictures onto some big pieces of paper and wrap the original Chima boxed sets, Exo Suit boxed sets, etc. in the photocopied paper (remembering to keep the images pointing outward).
    5) Affix the paper onto the new set with an official Lego box seal (with random numbers on the seal to make it look official). Add a few instructions onto the paper as desired...personally, I think crayons would give it that personal touch.
    6) Mark up the price on the set slightly to offset said interns, homeless people, materials, etc.
    7) Advertise on Lego.com and/or any number of Lego forums (including Brickset) that there is a new special-edition Lego set for sale for a limited time only.
    8) Sit back and watch the mayhem as resellers kill each other trying to scarf up the remaining sets Lego wanted to get rid of in the first place.

    Just remember it's my idea, so I get dibs on the first 10 sets!
    hoyatables
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I've always wanted to hand a homeless person a small bag full of Lego:

    Homeless guy: What am I supposed to do with this?
    Me: It's Lego...it's better than money. You have plastic gold in your hands.
    bobabricksMrJ_NYMathBuilder
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