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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412

    I'm all for divulging general sources of rumors, but not so specifically. It's really not a good idea to give out a name like that.

    I was given permission specifically by Edwin himself stating if anyone had questions and lived near Orlando then it would be okay to come ask him questions. I was trying to help those wanting some information.
    juggles7 said:

    Hey, Brandon, did you buy all 19 of your AAs from the Lego store that you just named? How many did they let you buy at a time?

    We understand about information, but I don't think that TLG would think kindly of Mr. Hammel selling you 19 AA's from his store for resale.

    LegoKipbobabricksAdeelZubairTheLoneTensor
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    edited February 2015
    lol talk about throwing a man under the bus
    bobabricksPitfall69pharmjodAdeelZubair
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88
    It was over time. I could only purchase 2 when I went and ordered the rest at RRP from a mix of stores.
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm all for divulging general sources of rumors, but not so specifically. It's really not a good idea to give out a name like that.

    I was given permission specifically by Edwin himself stating if anyone had questions and lived near Orlando then it would be okay to come ask him questions. I was trying to help those wanting some information.
    juggles7 said:

    Hey, Brandon, did you buy all 19 of your AAs from the Lego store that you just named? How many did they let you buy at a time?

    We understand about information, but I don't think that TLG would think kindly of Mr. Hammel selling you 19 AA's from his store for resale.

    Only 2 were from there. As soon as he told me they were going away I ordered from everywhere.
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88

    lol talk about throwing a man under the bus

    How? He was trying to be nice by letting me in on good info and told me he would love to answer any questions people had regarding discontinuing sets. He did nothing illegal or anything frowned upon. I left the store with only 2 AA and they still had 14 at the time.
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88
    Lol wow you guys. I was trying to help and you all are attempting to either make me or Hammel a villain. Ich hasse Lego Sammler wie euch!!!!!
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,129
    I think the whole thing here is that no one (in my recollection) has ever really been that upfront and provided so many specific details regarding something like this. There are so many different arguments that could go in a myriad of ways with this so needless to say I think it was just a "wow" moment for most. I think we should move on.

    I've always secretly liked the Ewok Village but not being a Star Wars collector and it's pretty high price point in not sure if that's a desire I want to satisfy. Do people think it's aftermarket value will skyrocket or be a steady climber?
    Farmer_Johnpharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    Do people think it's aftermarket value will skyrocket or be a steady climber?

    Great question! Would love to get some feedback from others on this as well...
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    edited February 2015
    My guess is it depends on how large the aftermaket supply is. EW is a set that's not only appealing to sw fans, making it a huge bonus. Add to that the fact that it's a real beaut, you have a real winner in your hands, provided the supply is low... which I honestly doubt will happen.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    The $250 price point sets will be interesting, I think people tend to NOT buy them as that price point is to high to buy and hold. You could buy 3 or 4 copies of other sets for the same money. As a result, the results could be good. I know that I still need to buy personal copies of both Seacow and EV.
    madforLEGO
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    edited February 2015

    Its shelf life has been longer than a real Death Star.

    Ha! So true. I kind of feel as though Metalbeard's Sea Cow is one of those sets that will do EXTREMELY well in the aftermarket, because it is a ship, it is unique, and it is in a price range where many people aren't buying it casually; and where investors may be putting their money elsewhere.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Nothing can be said on the brickset forum without the risk of passive-aggressive judgement
    pharmjodminicoopers11VaderX
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,664
    Maybe the figures could get to new collectors since those ones will probably not be seen after the new movies plus the amount of minifigures in the set may also be another reason. The Ewok tree house set is a classic playset so this will probly follow.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950

    I just not sure about the Death Star, not that it shouldn't have been EOL'd by now. Its shelf life has been longer than a real Death Star.

    How did I miss this quip the first time around? @Farmer_John, you just made my day.

    wagnerml2Pitfall69brickupdateLegoKipPenkid11Ronyar
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,843

    Do people think it's aftermarket value will skyrocket or be a steady climber?

    Great question! Would love to get some feedback from others on this as well...
    Ewok Village would rise, maybe, if not being Ewoks and SW line. 250 dollars is a bit much, and as lacking as I think the set is, it will be enough to get people to want it after EOL. However it is SW, and not really unique to the line in the past (see Battle of Endor) and it is likely that LEGO will do another Ewok related set, like Battle of Endor.
    At least the Dropship when it was out was somewhat unique, even with no real unique characters.
    So I think it could go up, then again it is SW, you will have A LOT of speculators grabbing all they can once it EOLs.
    So this one I think is a crap shoot IMO. Id say if you had to choose between DS and EV, grab a DS.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,843

    Lol wow you guys. I was trying to help and you all are attempting to either make me or Hammel a villain. Ich hasse Lego Sammler wie euch!!!!!

    Wel I think people are not sending the message right, but their point is putting someone name on a message board, whether they said they cared or not, it a bit careless to many. I would not do it, and I have a couple of contacts that I hear whispers from. Otherwise these people could be harassed non-stop which I really think that as much as someone says the do not care, they do. Then you could have LEGO corp employees (which I believe do lurk through forums) see such info and someone could be in trouble. Finally you will have, as often occurs in forums, miscommunications/misinterpretations where someone actually thought you bought 19 AAs from one store at one, or a few, times. It could have been implied in one of your previous posts I guess.
    So I would recommend that everyone is a bit careful with contacts, even if they said it was 'okay' to give out their name. I'm guessing the guy likely meant give out to those friends you know that are in the area, and not to a message forum, but that is just an assumption on my end.
    hewman
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    vitreolum said:

    My guess is it depends on how large the aftermaket supply is. EW is a set that's not only appealing to sw fans, making it a huge bonus. Add to that the fact that it's a real beaut, you have a real winner in your hands, provided the supply is low... which I honestly doubt will happen.

    What do you mean "not only appealing to SW fans"? Wouldn't just the opposite be true? Wouldn't the set ONLY be appealing to SW fans? I just don't see people who don't like Star Wars buying this $250 set just for its ornate trees, regardless of how impressive they are.

    BrandonCarpenter
  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 497
    @juggles7--plenty of LOTR fans, myself included, took one look at EW and shouted "Lorien!" And the price point becomes less of a problem if you're willing to sell off some or all of the SW minifigs to finance the remaining cost of a proper MOC of the Elvish forest-city. Having said that, I still haven't actually bought the set, mainly because I don't like the idea of deliberately breaking up a set in order to reduce its price. I'm a collector, not a reseller...but the serious builder of MOCs wouldn't have that problem, I'm sure.
    LegoKip
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Lest anyone should conclude otherwise...
    Store employees have a terrible track record for predicting sets that are about to retire. Store employees simply do NOT have inside information but are trying to move product, and are not above saying things like "I think they're going to retire Tower Bridge" to shoppers. They've predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions, as the saying goes, in the financial world. And even stopped clocks are right twice a day.

    I suspect the only people with truly inside information would be high in the corporation and would not risk their high-paying job by leaking such information to small-fry resellers or anonymous strangers in internet forums.

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815

    Lol wow you guys. I was trying to help and you all are attempting to either make me or Hammel a villain. Ich hasse Lego Sammler wie euch!!!!!

    Wel I think people are not sending the message right, but their point is putting someone name on a message board, whether they said they cared or not, it a bit careless to many. I would not do it, and I have a couple of contacts that I hear whispers from. Otherwise these people could be harassed non-stop which I really think that as much as someone says the do not care, they do. Then you could have LEGO corp employees (which I believe do lurk through forums) see such info and someone could be in trouble. Finally you will have, as often occurs in forums, miscommunications/misinterpretations where someone actually thought you bought 19 AAs from one store at one, or a few, times. It could have been implied in one of your previous posts I guess.
    So I would recommend that everyone is a bit careful with contacts, even if they said it was 'okay' to give out their name. I'm guessing the guy likely meant give out to those friends you know that are in the area, and not to a message forum, but that is just an assumption on my end.
    ^ This. Anyone else think it would be a good idea for a mod to delete the relevant posts?

    dougtsLegoKipmountebanktamamahmRonyar
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    I love the stereotype that store employees don't know anything; it keeps people from bothering me. ;)
    FollowsClosely
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Ahhh.... playing like Sargent Schultz from Hogan's Heroes - "I know nothing!!!"
    Pitfall69LegoKipbinaryeye
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88
    Mods come and delete my posts from this threads please. I was trying to help but came under fire from every Lego no life known to man.
    cloaked7FollowsClosely
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Nah...you're okay; however, the horse didn't make it.

    "Nothing to see here...everybody, please move along."
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    Mods come and delete my posts from this threads please. I was trying to help but came under fire from every Lego no life known to man.

    @BrandonCarpenter Some on the forum are quick to correct others, based on their perspective of things. Don't let those few 'grammar police' run you off.

    I was chided recently for mentioning a set that had not been released yet. I just said to myself "Oh well." and continued on. Don't let someone else's actions determine what you do. That way you are giving in, they win, and we all lose. You keep on being yourself and don't pay them any mind.

    I for one, appreciated your input and your desire to be helpful. Keep up the good work!
    BrandonCarpenterJP3804
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    edited February 2015

    Mods come and delete my posts from this threads please. I was trying to help but came under fire from every Lego no life known to man.

    You were ok until you said "Lego no life" or maybe you meant to say "low life". Either way, calling us names just makes you sound...well..."dickish". Our comments were far from an inquisition. As a rule of thumb, we generally don't give out names of employees in the forum. We understand you were just trying to help, but your last post kinda pissed me off. I cannot speak for everyone else, but I assure you I have a life and I am definitely NOT a low life.

    LegoKipwagnerml2Sethro3
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    Oh... they meant 'low life'? I didn't really follow the 'no life' comment.
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,091
    cloaked7 said:

    Mods come and delete my posts from this threads please. I was trying to help but came under fire from every Lego no life known to man.

    @BrandonCarpenter Some on the forum are quick to correct others, based on their perspective of things. Don't let those few 'grammar police' run you off.

    I was chided recently for mentioning a set that had not been released yet. I just said to myself "Oh well." and continued on. Don't let someone else's actions determine what you do. That way you are giving in, they win, and we all lose. You keep on being yourself and don't pay them any mind.

    I for one, appreciated your input and your desire to be helpful. Keep up the good work!
    Grammatical errors are one thing, posting other people's names and what they have said and the store they work in is rather different.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    It's a pretty thin pancake that doesn't have two sides. :-)

    I understand the point of not posting a person's name, etc... (concerns about sharing personal information on the internet, don't want to get a person in trouble, etc.) But, if the person gives permission? Also, I've seen it done before and no one commented about it being wrong. Not really taking sides. Just saying that I see, and I think understand, both sides.

    Just curious - Is there an official forum policy against sharing a person's name and their opinion/comment?
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079

    Lol wow you guys. I was trying to help and you all are attempting to either make me or Hammel a villain. Ich hasse Lego Sammler wie euch!!!!!

    Well telling people on a board that you hate them seems not really appropriate, so i don´t understand why you feel offended?! For everybody here not speaking german, the sentence "Ich hasse Lego Sammler wie euch!!!" means "i hate Lego collectors like you"! I don´t know why it was written in german on a english (spoken) board?!
    BumblepantsPitfall69LegoKip
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Well, well, well... My opinion has changed. Here I was taking up for that person.
    Pitfall69
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    edited February 2015
    juggles7 said:

    vitreolum said:

    My guess is it depends on how large the aftermaket supply is. EW is a set that's not only appealing to sw fans, making it a huge bonus. Add to that the fact that it's a real beaut, you have a real winner in your hands, provided the supply is low... which I honestly doubt will happen.

    What do you mean "not only appealing to SW fans"? Wouldn't just the opposite be true? Wouldn't the set ONLY be appealing to SW fans? I just don't see people who don't like Star Wars buying this $250 set just for its ornate trees, regardless of how impressive they are.

    It would be perfect for fantasy/castle fans as an elven village... and even the ewoks could work as little fantasy critters. It's a great display piece regardless of theme. It's also a great playset. It's one of the sets that really attracted the eye of people that are neither into lego and sw. These are just my observations.

    From a personal perspective this is the best set they've released in since 10212, and looking at the latest releases, I don't see them topping it off anytime soon. Had I missed this one, I'd definitely pay a shitload for this before any other set, sw or not.

    I for one can't fault this set in any way, and it's a completely different type of set than all the endor sets that are actually battle based... It's a scene I don't see them making again anytime soon.
    Pitfall69LegoKip
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,904
    Noticed that #40120 VDay Dinner just sold out. I figured that one was never going to make it to discount. It's a little set, but will turn a nice profit for anyone who stocked up. Long-time classic.
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88
    Don't worry everybody. I already requested to get banned. "I hate collectors like you" is a generalization implying that those who stick their nose into everything are bad people and I hate hearing from them. Ha you guys criticize me and you aren't taking my statement into the correct connotation. The hypocrisy is where you guys said I was being to broad with my statements when in fact the shortcoming on all of your parts is the matter that you misunderstood my message and my comment. I intended for this to be a useful addition for the post and instead you guys misutilized the context and blew it way out of proportion. And yeah, I am frustrated so I spoke my native tounge, boo hoo get over it. I hope you all realize that there is absolutely nothing accomplished by trying to emphasize my misdoings. If you fealt that I really should not have said my comment about the sets then you shouldn't be on this thread. It says predictions, Mr. Hammel is predicting based on his information. And he said I could tell everyone his name so but out! If you aren't in my shoes, don't go and put words in my mouth. Pretentious lot of people, makes me sick that I thought I was part of community. Have a good day!
    Haben sie einen guten tag!
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Well, since we're using other languages - Hasta la vista, baby! (Arnold Schwarzenegger - Terminator 2: Judgment Day)
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    Hey, Jesus, lighten up. I think you also misunderstood. It's no big deal, both parties misunderstood then. The guys here were just trying to advise that to name him on a forum such as this was only going to have one outcome and that was to bring heat on him. You name in in the New York Times for me, I don't give a flying shite.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,129
    Ummmmm....I'm still on the fence with Ewok Village. :blush:
    LegoKip
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think the UCS Red Five X-Wing Starfighter #10240 will definitely be gone by year's end (more likely sooner). There have been or will be three UCS SW sets released within the short span of a year (Sand Crawler, Slave 1, and the upcoming Tie Fighter), and I don't think TLG will try to sustain four UCS sets. There has never been a lot of excitement generated by the X-Wing, and I have to wonder how well it's selling.

    Additionally, I have a hunch the Death Star is outselling Ewok Village even though it's a much older set. If I was going to EOL one of the two, it would probably be the Ewok Village...especially with the new movie coming out in 10 months. It will survive us all...
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,545
    Is the new TIE in scale or close enough with the #10240 X-Wing? If so that might breathe some life into the X-Wing with people wanting to pair them in display.
    Farmer_John
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 869

    Is the new TIE in scale or close enough with the #10240 X-Wing? If so that might breathe some life into the X-Wing with people wanting to pair them in display.

    Definitely. I know my mind immediately went there (as a collector).

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Hard to keep up! Or as Pitfall might say, you guys are all over the place. Thanks for the great posts about why the Ewok Village might be a great set for other-than Star Wars fans. Convinced me. Glad I asked!

    Lego has a policy against reselling. Identifying yourself as a reseller, telling where you shop, and naming the store employee who is aiding and abetting your reselling is a really bad idea. Loose lips sink ships (your ship, not mine!) and can also get you a lifetime ban. When people in this forum respond with "You shouldn't do that", they're not attacking you , but trying to help you save your now-endangered VIP account. And keep the store employee out of hot water.

    Sometimes feel I'm in a science fiction movie where people mean well but (self included!) can't communicate clearly and because of it, things go to hell in a heartbeat. Hope I didn't make matters worse!

  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Do Lego have an actual policy against reselling?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    ^I think @LegoFanTexas might be the best suited to answer that one... ;-)
    wagnerml2
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,091

    Do Lego have an actual policy against reselling?

    They only sell to consumers, apparently :-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    Somewhere around here I have a sealed UCS Vader Advanced Tie Fighter #10175. It would look pretty sweet to set it up with two of the new UCS Tie Fighters just behind it on either side chasing a UCS Red Five X-Wing. Tempting...oh so tempting!

    I think the value of #10175 just increased some more...
    timinchicagoaimlesspursuits
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    If the Ewok Village retired this year it would definitely sky rocket in price. Just think of the people that haven't purchased it, thinking it would be around for 2-3 years. "I'll get it next Christmas." I know I'm repeating myself, but a key aspect is how long a set is current.
    bobabricks
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,843
    cloaked7 said:

    If the Ewok Village retired this year it would definitely sky rocket in price. Just think of the people that haven't purchased it, thinking it would be around for 2-3 years. "I'll get it next Christmas." I know I'm repeating myself, but a key aspect is how long a set is current.

    I do not see it going up by leaps and bounds though if LEGO quickly redoes another 99.99 USD LEGO SW set with Ewoks. That is the issue with many of the LEGO SW sets. Do you buy them knowing that LEGO could turn around and put another out there (especially Ewoks)? I dunno. I have one but if I am going to put my dough anywhere it will likely be Mods where they are less likely to redo the exact set.
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651
    Well, if anyone is thinking about buying Ewok Village, now might be the time to do so. Looks like Amazon has it on sale for 68% off, saving you $541.84! o_____o

    ...I think Amazon might be drunk.
    ReesesPiecesRainstorm26Bumblepants
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ The set retired yesterday. It's just that only Amazon knows it! :-)
  • LeonCLeonC United KingdomMember Posts: 364
    So now we've seen pictures of the upcoming Jokerland, what are peoples thoughts on Funhouse Escape - does it go up (more people want it to go with Jokerland) or down (because its too similar / has many of the same figures). I have one stashed away that I bought to build but never got round to and I'm wondering whether to sell it now or keep it stashed.
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