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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    Building a steam shovel now actually. I have the mechanism down, just need to build the rest of the shovel. Once done Ill also be making a Train version of it too.

    Is it going to look like this?

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    Something like that if I can build it properly.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    No, Pitfall, I don't think the website page you showed was wrong or false.

    Either my site or your site was mistaken, that's all. Could be that camelcamelcamel does not catch every Amazon price change. That, in itself, would be good to know. I value your opinions here, Pitfall, as always.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    juggles7 said:

    No, Pitfall, I don't think the website page you showed was wrong or false.

    Either my site or your site was mistaken, that's all. Could be that camelcamelcamel does not catch every Amazon price change. That, in itself, would be good to know. I value your opinions here, Pitfall, as always.

    I was just wondering if there was an issue somewhere "that's all" :)

    You have been here long enough to know that my opinions have no value ;)



    juggles7Ronyar
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,905
    Amazon did price match the Cantina. It was all over brickpicker and I observed it as well. Camelcamelcamel is frequently wrong.
    FollowsCloselyjuggles7
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    Not "wrong", just incomplete. You cant expect cc to catch every price change. They can only scrape so much during a given time.
    juggles7
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,111
    All this talk about the cantina makes me want to visit one.
    chuckpBumblepantshoyatables
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Just watch out for the bounty hunters with itchy trigger fingers...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    Walmart had them on sale for $48.99 around January 20th and Amazon matched them.

    I as able to pick up a copy of #75052 from YoYo last October for $51.19. It was already marked down and I was able to add a 20% off coupon. I didn't think it was a great deal, and still expect it to go lower at some major retail outlets before EOLing. But it was a much better deal than Lego was offering with their double VIP points at the time.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I have (3) right now for my personal collection. I'm waiting for another sale like the Walmart/Amazon sale to purchase for resale.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Architecture Fallingwater is highly-regarded, and one of my personal favorites. It's been available a long time (since 2009), was showing as "sold out" for a while, then back in stock, and now it's "call to check". Amazon's got them, at full retail, limit 2. The Louvre is coming out in September, which could be a factor. Just guessing, but I would think its days are numbered.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    New city trains already gone for good?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    bp10030 said:

    New city trains already gone for good?

    I would say no. They haven't even been out for 9 months. US [email protected] and Amazon still have them. Did you guys have a sale recently? If they went before 9 months, it would be unprecedented.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    juggles7 said:

    Architecture Fallingwater is highly-regarded, and one of my personal favorites. It's been available a long time (since 2009), was showing as "sold out" for a while, then back in stock, and now it's "call to check". Amazon's got them, at full retail, limit 2. The Louvre is coming out in September, which could be a factor. Just guessing, but I would think its days are numbered.

    Man, Fallingwater has been available FOREVER. Glad I dumped mine long ago.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    From the IDEAS theme, I'm wondering if the Exosuit will perform similarly to the original Minecraft #21102 set after it's EOL'd. Both were originally produced in insufficient quantities and then TLG eventually picked up production making them readily available.

    Along this line, I wonder how long TLG will let the Exosuit run. It's been widely available for a long enough period (as compared with other unlicensed IDEAS themed sets). I would expect it to go within the next few months...
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    If the Exosuit sells out within the next few months, it will do much better than the first Minecraft set. The Minecraft set's been out since 2012 and there are a boatload of them out there. I don't know how many are in the hands of resellers, but I, for one, don't have any and wouldn't want any, without a steep discount. Just my opinion!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I'm also wondering if the new Scooby Doo Mystery Mansion will have a resale impact on the Vampyre Castle that was EOL'd about a year ago. Yeah...I understand they are different types of sets; however, the Mystery Mansion might just "scratch the itch" of someone wanting a "haunted" themed set for whole lot less money. Personally, I like the Vampyre Castle better than the MM. Maybe they would be good sets to combine.

    I just noticed (and really like) the jack-o-lantern in the Mystery Mansion set, but all the purple kind of bothers me (as an AFOL)!
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88

    I'm also wondering if the new Scooby Doo Mystery Mansion will have a resale impact on the Vampyre Castle that was EOL'd about a year ago. Yeah...I understand they are different types of sets; however, the Mystery Mansion might just "scratch the itch" of someone wanting a "haunted" themed set for whole lot less money. Personally, I like the Vampyre Castle better than the MM. Maybe they would be good sets to combine.

    I just noticed (and really like) the jack-o-lantern in the Mystery Mansion set, but all the purple kind of bothers me (as an AFOL)!

    You bet it will hurt the Vampyre Castle, right in the vampire's smug little $300 set of fangs. I love the purple, black, dark gray, and purple make for a spooky retroish look.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549

    From the IDEAS theme, I'm wondering if the Exosuit will perform similarly to the original Minecraft #21102 set after it's EOL'd. Both were originally produced in insufficient quantities and then TLG eventually picked up production making them readily available.

    juggles7 said:

    If the Exosuit sells out within the next few months, it will do much better than the first Minecraft set. The Minecraft set's been out since 2012 and there are a boatload of them out there.

    I don't see exosuit doing that well. Minecraft did well at certain times of the year when it was in demand (Christmas), and will probably continue to sell while it still has a fan base with the peak at Christmas. Due to amount of them, I doubt it will rise too much above RRP though. The exosuit doesn't have that fan base, so will struggle to sell. It might be helped if new sets come along with classic space torsos in them (in different colours) since that may kindle an interest from people that don't already have the set. Anyone into lego now that has an interest in it, has probably got it - lego had it on double points for a while didn't seem to shift it. Sure future fans may want it, but this is more likely if it has something available in the future to go with it.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    The LEGO stores are full of them and they aren't shifting.
    LegoTT
  • LegoTTLegoTT Member Posts: 483

    The LEGO stores are full of them and they aren't shifting.

    Yeah, I see countless ExoSuits at my local Lego Store.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited February 2015

    I'm also wondering if the new Scooby Doo Mystery Mansion will have a resale impact on the Vampyre Castle that was EOL'd about a year ago. Yeah...I understand they are different types of sets; however, the Mystery Mansion might just "scratch the itch" of someone wanting a "haunted" themed set for whole lot less money. Personally, I like the Vampyre Castle better than the MM. Maybe they would be good sets to combine.

    I just noticed (and really like) the jack-o-lantern in the Mystery Mansion set, but all the purple kind of bothers me (as an AFOL)!

    You bet it will hurt the Vampyre Castle, right in the vampire's smug little $300 set of fangs. I love the purple, black, dark gray, and purple make for a spooky retroish look.
    300 dollars for a MF castle? I see them on eBay selling for 135. I think you are confusing the castle for the Haunted House maybe?

    I doubt it will hurt the value of the MF castle. The Mansion is hokey looking IMO, as expected for the Scooby line, but I am guessing there will be many of those that want the castle (and haunted house) all the same.
    Pitfall69
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I prefer Scooby Mansion to Vampyre Castle. But I do not think that is significant compared to the massive supply of VC on the secondary market. $300 is many years away if at all for VC IMO. Of course HH wipes the floor with them both.

    Pitfall69
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    What's everyone's thoughts on #10234 SOH when EOL, could this be a winner? as I think will not to stocked up as TB
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I bet it's barely being stocked up at all, but at 320 a pop, never discounted, never going out of stock, supply exceeding demand, I would pass it up entirely. A small, cult-like following won't equate into big bucks on the aftermarket. I'll risk being wrong by saying it's going to be a dud, a dog, a stinker. The smaller Architecture version holds more promise, I think, and it appears to be on its way out of circulation now. If nothing else, the small version is at least affordable for most people. The large Opera House looks to me like a tough sell.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^I've been wanting to pick up a personal copy at some point, but it is a VERY expensive set and I have other expensive sets queued up to purchase first (e.g., Detective Agency, Slave 1, Ewok Village, Sand Crawler, etc.). The problem for me is Lego keeps the stream of new expensive sets flowing (the Avenger's Helicarrier comes to mind) so that I'm falling further and further behind. Because of this, I have no doubt that I will miss out on some of the more expensive and never-to-be discounted sets this year. It's all a matter of priorities, and the SOH just isn't as high on my list as other sets.

    But I do expect it will increase once it's EOL'd, but as @juggles7 says I'm not sure what the demand will be.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    CCC said:

    From the IDEAS theme, I'm wondering if the Exosuit will perform similarly to the original Minecraft #21102 set after it's EOL'd. Both were originally produced in insufficient quantities and then TLG eventually picked up production making them readily available.

    juggles7 said:

    If the Exosuit sells out within the next few months, it will do much better than the first Minecraft set. The Minecraft set's been out since 2012 and there are a boatload of them out there.

    I don't see exosuit doing that well. Minecraft did well at certain times of the year when it was in demand (Christmas), and will probably continue to sell while it still has a fan base with the peak at Christmas. Due to amount of them, I doubt it will rise too much above RRP though. The exosuit doesn't have that fan base, so will struggle to sell. It might be helped if new sets come along with classic space torsos in them (in different colours) since that may kindle an interest from people that don't already have the set. Anyone into lego now that has an interest in it, has probably got it - lego had it on double points for a while didn't seem to shift it. Sure future fans may want it, but this is more likely if it has something available in the future to go with it.
    I kinda agree here. And it makes me wonder about long-term value of Benny's ship. Not apples to oranges - but I don't know if someone will pay $200+ for the ship.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited February 2015
    juggles7 said:

    I bet it's barely being stocked up at all, but at 320 a pop, never discounted, never going out of stock, supply exceeding demand, I would pass it up entirely. A small, cult-like following won't equate into big bucks on the aftermarket. I'll risk being wrong by saying it's going to be a dud, a dog, a stinker. The smaller Architecture version holds more promise, I think, and it appears to be on its way out of circulation now. If nothing else, the small version is at least affordable for most people. The large Opera House looks to me like a tough sell.

    I think it will do OK for the reasons you list: Pricey, not 'sought after' now, as it is all about supply and demand. There will be those that want it and likely not many selling it.
    The questions to ask are:
    -Do I want to pay retail (if in the US as these are not allowed to be on sale) and hope it doubles, or even gets near doubling?
    -Do I have enough space to hold more than one box (as I believe it is a fairly large box as well)?
    -How long do I want to hold these for?
    -How many OTHER people are going to be trying to horde these for sale later?
    -What are the chances LEGO re-does the set, or does a similar set, at a later date? When is that date (this is more common to ask if you are grabbing Star wars LEGO)
    prevere said:

    CCC said:

    From the IDEAS theme, I'm wondering if the Exosuit will perform similarly to the original Minecraft #21102 set after it's EOL'd. Both were originally produced in insufficient quantities and then TLG eventually picked up production making them readily available.

    juggles7 said:

    If the Exosuit sells out within the next few months, it will do much better than the first Minecraft set. The Minecraft set's been out since 2012 and there are a boatload of them out there.

    I don't see exosuit doing that well. Minecraft did well at certain times of the year when it was in demand (Christmas), and will probably continue to sell while it still has a fan base with the peak at Christmas. Due to amount of them, I doubt it will rise too much above RRP though. The exosuit doesn't have that fan base, so will struggle to sell. It might be helped if new sets come along with classic space torsos in them (in different colours) since that may kindle an interest from people that don't already have the set. Anyone into lego now that has an interest in it, has probably got it - lego had it on double points for a while didn't seem to shift it. Sure future fans may want it, but this is more likely if it has something available in the future to go with it.
    I kinda agree here. And it makes me wonder about long-term value of Benny's ship. Not apples to oranges - but I don't know if someone will pay $200+ for the ship.
    Benny's ship is likely being horded by many, and perpetually on sale for 80 USD. If you get it for 80 USD I can see it getting up to 150-160, but only after a while and if the other LEGO movie has benny and his spaceship in it (and LEGO for does re-release it for the next movie of course)
    I have one for myself and that is plenty I think
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    You guys are all over the place. It is like talking to my wife when she is having a bad day; the only difference is that I don't have to duck in the forum ;)

    I don't think that the Scooby-Doo Haunted Mansion will devalue the Monster Fighters Vampyre Castle. I think there are plenty of VC's out there and that will keep the value down. If someone decides that the glow in the dark sticker version is rare, it might add to the value of the VC; otherwise it wil be a slow gainer.

    The Sydney Opera House is too expensive and is a niche collectors set. I don't see it as an investment piece for resale.

    The Exo Suit will perform moderately, just like most Lego sets do, but there are far too many sets to put your money into. Your only hope is that people start building Exo Suit armies and/or really want the Green Spacemen.

    Benny's Spaceship looked great when it first came out and then it went on sale and it went on sale a lot. When Lego announced that they were coming out with Double Decker Couch, it all but squashed BS from being a winner.
    juggles7BrickDancer
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Milne44 said:

    What's everyone's thoughts on #10234 SOH when EOL, could this be a winner? as I think will not to stocked up as TB

    This is my kind of set :)

    FollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    There are thousands more green spacemen than there are exosuits. If people want green spacemen, they won't need the exosuit.

    SOH is too niche. It may go up, but it is going to be a very slow seller with little liquidity.

    The small SOH is plain awful, I cannot see that doing so well.
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88
    Yeah sorry I meant Haunted House not Vampyr Castle. My bad...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    Yeah sorry I meant Haunted House not Vampyr Castle. My bad...

    Either way, Scooby-Doo Mystery Mansion will not even put a small blemish on Haunted House; if anything it will attract more buyers.

    BrickDancermadforLEGO
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    juggles7 said:

    Saturday night, right now, Amazon selling 2015 City, Ninjago and Elves sets. These ads could get yanked any time, as the street date is March 1st. Remember Amazon put the Minecraft sets up for sale early, but took the ads down after just a couple of days, then complied with the official release date. Don't wait, unless you don't mind waiting until March.

    Amazon has yanked them; is no longer selling them. Let me gloat just a tiny bit about getting at least one prediction right in this thread!

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    @CCC,

    What is "awful" about the small Architecture Opera House? I've not built one.





  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited February 2015

    I don't believe TLG could have produced a set any closer to the proverbial haunted house...

    Or to badsneaker's version ;)

    image
    juggles7Farmer_JohnLegoKip
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I'm sorry, but you obviously forgot about this one ;)
    LegoboyAdeelZubairmadforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm sorry, but you obviously forgot about this one ;)

    Its a pink nightmare, like Ralphie in his bunny suit
    Pitfall69wagnerml2Zathras
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    juggles7 said:

    @CCC,

    What is "awful" about the small Architecture Opera House? I've not built one.





    The design. It just looks wrong, it doesn't work at that scale.

    But if you like it, buy it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited February 2015
    I'm not really a comic book fan, but I love Superheroes. What Lego Superheroes sets, that are out right now, do you guys feel are the best investment for resale?

    These are my picks (not in any order)

    #76040 Brainiac Attack
    #76028 Darkseid Invasion
    #76025 Green Lantern vs. Sinestro
    #76023 The Tumbler

    Also, what future and newly retired sets do you think will be aftermarket winners?


  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,651
    ^^I would say:

    #76021 The Milano Spaceship Rescue
    #76025 Green Lantern vs. Sinestro
    #76028 Darkseid Invasion
    #76040 Brainiac Attack
    #76023 The Tumbler
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Is Guardians of the Galaxy that popular? To be honest, I have never heard of them until the movie came out.
    BuriedinBricks
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,302
    edited February 2015
    ^

    The film franchise completely broke the mould for GotG. If comic book popularity matched superhero film sales then Man of Steel should have floored GotG. I'd say the Milano is likely to be featured in a fair few future Marvel films, so the gamble is probably based more on will TLG remake it at any point.
    I love the Darkseid Invasion set as a comic book fan, great mix of minifigures, really nice spaceship. The little Darkseid cannon/craft is the only weakness of the set. However, show that to most Joe Public types and I'd imagine they'd only recognise Superman (maybe Green Arrow at an outside shot)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I just put the Javelin together yesterday. I didn't even know what it was called until I looked it up. Awesome build imo. Great mixture of Minifigures as well. My daughter happened to see Justice League vs. Bizzaro League 2 days ago and recognized all the Minifigures from the Darkseid set. She commented that Green Arrows hood should be on ;)
    brickupdate
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,289
    I would say the X-Men Sentinel set has to be in that Superheros conversation. Big loyal fan base and not likely to get redone and also not likely for many other X-sets to happen. It will likely EOL this summer or Christmas at the latest as well.
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 650
    ^ Most of the characters from Darkseid's Invasion may not be super recognizable to the general public now, but keep in mind that DC is planning to launch it's own film saga along the lines of the Marvel Cinematic universe starting with BvSM Dawn of Justice next spring... They have at least 10 films lined up for the next five years or so. These DC characters may become more iconic and recognizable in the public eye in the coming years. Whether or not these movies are successful, or whether the superhero genre will start to fade from popularity as Hollywood becomes ever more inundated with comic book films seems to be a gamble.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I really enjoyed the GotG movie and ended up purchasing all of the standard sets (down to the Starlord key chain) with a few extra sets thrown in to boot. I also went to BrickLink and grabbed each of the minifigs for the theme, which are now proudly housed in one of my minifig display cases. The set discounts for this theme to date have been minimal (almost "exclusive-ish"), so it's not like Lego is dumping them.

    There's no doubt that there will be another GotG movie (as stated in the movie's closing credits), which in turn may result in additional GotG sets. The question is whether the next movie will drive demand for the current sets. If the next movies is on par or better than the first movie, then these older sets should do well.
  • ChewybricksChewybricks Florida, U.S.Member Posts: 57
    The Simpson house is likely to be high value when it sells out
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm not really a comic book fan, but I love Superheroes. What Lego Superheroes sets, that are out right now, do you guys feel are the best investment for resale?

    These are my picks (not in any order)

    #76040 Brainiac Attack
    #76028 Darkseid Invasion
    #76025 Green Lantern vs. Sinestro
    #76023 The Tumbler

    Also, what future and newly retired sets do you think will be aftermarket winners?


    Stick with the Tumbler. The minifig driven sets will be hurt by the ever growing number of fake minifigs from China. Tumbler is top shelf all the way.
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