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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • pookiepookie Member Posts: 156
    I also tried my luck on that 75060 for $104. We'll see if they cancel the order.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,111
    edited January 2015
    Dougout said:


    I'm curious as why there is not much faith in AA? I view AA as a golden set. It's almost at 2x RRP here in the states. Is the difference really down to region? I'm not a big superheroes fan, but all my friends are, ALL of them. I can see the popularity in the US is only on the rise (until they bleed superheroes dry of all it's value). There's many, many drama tv shows that focus on superheroes, superhero video games and card games are on the rise, superhero merchandise is everywhere, and now they've started making movies that feature multiple heroes, as if only one wasn't pulling in enough $$$.

    Are superheroes/Batman really not popular in the EU?

    Something else that goes against AA is that it is essentially a facade of a building with not much substance (in a modular range sense) to it, although some nice little play features hidden away behind the facade. A decent enough truck and gate. And then of course there are the minifigs.

    Some people clearly want all three, and will probably pay for it.

    For those that want the minifigs, there are alternatives which are often in cheaper sets (especially if they are in current sets). There are also a number of fakes these days which will satisfy a number of people that might have possibly bought it for the minifigs alone. Of course, there will always be some unique figs to this set, but with the number of new superheroes minifigs coming out, I wonder if future buyers will aim to get them all. Sure some will, but will they pay 2x RRP for this set just to get Poison Ivy, Scarecrow and Harleen Quinzel? An alternative jumpsuit Joker is easy enough to make using a plain orange suit, Scarecrow is possible from CMF, Penguin is easy to make by buying the torso and using other parts from the Duck-boat set, Harleen by using a regular medic torso, etc. For people that want the characters rather than the exact minifigs, that is often good enough, especially if it is at a fraction of the price of a large set.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The AA set #10937 has always struck me as an "expensive" set; however, I did pick up a copy when double VIP points were offered just to have one in hand before it EOL'd. What I did grab (via BL) was a couple extra Batman minifigs from this set. My son collects Batman minifigs and I'm not aware of another set that includes the black plastic wings. I also grabbed a Harley Quinzel from this set shortly after it was released for maybe $5 to add to my minifig display. I've finally got in the habit of trying to pick up the minifigs via BL when I'm shopping for MOC parts to reduce my overall cost.

    As a side note, BL always seems to be a much better deal than eBay when it comes to minifigs. I also think that BL has a lower probability of counterfeit parts and minifigs (than eBay) since most people shopping on BL are more knowledgeable regarding Lego. Perhaps a faulty assumption, but I haven't had any issues with BL to date...
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    pookie said:

    I also tried my luck on that 75060 for $104. We'll see if they cancel the order.

    Customer Service opened at 10 am and I was wondering if that would change things. Now it shows sold out.

  • pookiepookie Member Posts: 156
    Per there pricing policy
    While ToyWiz.com strives to provide accurate product and pricing information, pricing or typographical errors may occur. ToyWiz.com cannot confirm the price of an item until after you order. In the event that an item is listed at an incorrect price or with incorrect information due to an error in pricing or product information, ToyWiz.com shall have the right, at our sole discretion, to refuse or cancel any orders placed for the item. In the event that an item is mispriced, ToyWiz.com may, at our discretion, either contact you for instructions or cancel your order and notify you of such cancellation.

  • pookiepookie Member Posts: 156
    So I guess they cancel the order or have you pay more. I'll wait and see.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,860
    GEs will go up, but not by as much as I think some people are expecting. I think FB rose because it was a Fire Station. GE is pretty vanilla both in color scheme and content. It is a corner set, so that may help it, but I just do not see much to it, as opposed to sets like Pet shop, Palace Cinema, etc. Time will tell. Will it go up? Sure, but I think FB is the better bet.

    I tried for a UCS Slave 1 at Toywiz at that 104.99 price. My guess is they will ask to price correct or cancel the order, but I only bought the one. If it sticks, great. If not, then no biggie but it was worth a shot. I'm sure there are those that pre-ordered 20 at that price and they will probably act majorly offended that ToyWiz corrects their mistake.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    edited January 2015
    Cancelled. Was worth a shot.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,860
    margot said:

    Cancelled. Was worth a shot.

    Yeah, cancelled as well. not surprising, but like you said, worth a shot.
  • pookiepookie Member Posts: 156
    Also cancelled.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Mine's cancelled as well. At least they're efficient at one thing.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133

    GEs will go up, but not by as much as I think some people are expecting. I think FB rose because it was a Fire Station. GE is pretty vanilla both in color scheme and content. It is a corner set, so that may help it, but I just do not see much to it, as opposed to sets like Pet shop, Palace Cinema, etc. Time will tell. Will it go up? Sure, but I think FB is the better bet.

    You're probably right about FB and GE. At this point I've been giving equal weight to all the Modulars. I'm a small time investor and the largest quantity of any single set in my collection is 11. So I try to accumulate about 10 or 11 modulars per year, moving from one to the next, year after year.



    Locke
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    I'm just glad I don't "need" any set bad enough to justify paying those horrible after market prices. Good luck to all of you. There will always be someone wanting to pay those prices for something.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    You are right, but there is an aftermarket for everything. Some US $1 coins go for millions of dollars. I think one sold for $10 million USD a couple of years ago. That is for a $1 coin. I don't think paying $250 for a $150 set is all that bad.
  • PurplorosPurploros USAMember Posts: 82
    How much will the Rocket Raccoon polybag likely be worth by October this year?
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,129

    How much will the Rocket Raccoon polybag likely be worth by October this year?

    27x it's RRP
    matticus_bricks
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,905

    How much will the Rocket Raccoon polybag likely be worth by October this year?

    Whatever someone is willing to pay for it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    edited January 2015

    How much will the Rocket Raccoon polybag likely be worth by October this year?

    27x it's RRP
    Thanks for your opinion , but I don't think you can make that claim at all ;)

  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,790
    ^ And your opinion counts?
    Pitfall69
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,348

    How much will the Rocket Raccoon polybag likely be worth by October this year?

    It's not chromed, so it's essentially worthless.


    My victory over @y2josh‌ has not been near as exciting as I thought it would be, considering his absence. Perhaps he noticed he was going to lose, planned ahead, and left the forums 3 months in advance. The shame was just to much to handle...
    pharmjodPitfall69LegoKipBumblepantsBanditwagnerml2RonyarBuriedinBricksjasor
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Does anybody when when the next 2X VIP points month will be. I mean, is there a pattern? Does Lego do these promos at the same time each year?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2015
    ^March or April, I believe. It varies...
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515

    How much will the Rocket Raccoon polybag likely be worth by October this year?

    $10 give or take. Good quantities, around 200 per US store, were generally available. Large amounts scooped up for resale. Movie will fade over the coming months (sequel not coming before Oct). Its not going to drop below retail; I just don't see it rising much over the coming months either.
    Purploros
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    Legoboy said:

    ^ And your opinion counts?

    Pitfall69 said:

    How much will the Rocket Raccoon polybag likely be worth by October this year?

    27x it's RRP
    Thanks for your opinion , but I don't think you can make that claim at all ;)

    Legoboy said:

    ^ And your opinion counts?

    Listen. I was only joking. I was making fun of comment(s) made in the "Hobbit Minifigure Thread" :)

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,111
    PS. His opinion only counts when he's not high on MLP fumes.
    Pitfall69ShibRonyarpharmjodjasor
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    enotoga said:

    Does anybody when when the next 2X VIP points month will be. I mean, is there a pattern? Does Lego do these promos at the same time each year?

    March 14-28. The only pattern I know of is two weeks in March or April, and all month in October, but the exact timing of the two-week double VIP always varies.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Pitfall69 should change his moniker to "Pitfall27". :-) Has a nice ring to it. Then he could say introduce himself something like this... "Hi. I'm Pitfall. Pitfall27."

    I'm almost there myself. Just need to squeeze in the '2'.
    wagnerml2Bumblepants
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,860
    cloaked7 said:

    Pitfall69 should change his moniker to "Pitfall27". :-) Has a nice ring to it. Then he could say introduce himself something like this... "Hi. I'm Pitfall. Pitfall27."

    I'm almost there myself. Just need to squeeze in the '2'.

    Well enough to beat it to death.. whoops too late.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    edited January 2015
    Speaking of MLP. This little gem has liquid inside her. I...Must...Resist...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    There are two freebee sets that are supposed to be given out with select orders from [email protected] this month: #40140 and #30274. However, I added items to my cart (including the new Slave 1) and neither item shows up. Did these extras already sell-out within a few days? If so, I guess I'll have to hold off on my next order from [email protected] until there is additional incentive. I might not be so tight-fisted with my funds if TLG had decent deals from time to time.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @Farmer_John Yes, if you check out the [email protected] thread, people have been reporting on this - both sets seem to have "sold out," and are no longer available.

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/18104/s-h#latest
    Pitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Thanks @brickupdate! Too bad...I had some items I was planning to order. I guess I'll wait until next month when I can get the Han Solo MF... ;-)
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367

    ^Thanks @brickupdate! Too bad...I had some items I was planning to order. I guess I'll wait until next month when I can get the Han Solo MF... ;-)

    If that's the best they can do next month, I'll be waiting a bit longer to pick up DO..
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    iccarus said:

    ^Thanks @brickupdate! Too bad...I had some items I was planning to order. I guess I'll wait until next month when I can get the Han Solo MF... ;-)

    If that's the best they can do next month, I'll be waiting a bit longer to pick up DO..
    They should just mail out Hoth Han Solo to VIP members with a note that says "We are deeply sorry" ;)

    canon03BuriedinBricks
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2015
    iccarus said:

    ^Thanks @brickupdate! Too bad...I had some items I was planning to order. I guess I'll wait until next month when I can get the Han Solo MF... ;-)

    If that's the best they can do next month, I'll be waiting a bit longer to pick up DO..
    Yeah...I'm with you. I was being sarcastic...hence the wink.

    I enjoy Lego as much as the next AFOL, but it's important (at least to me) to get decent deals on such an expensive toy. With the lack of opportunities to purchase at reasonable prices in the USA, the whole thing is losing its shine.
    Pitfall69BuriedinBricks
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    ^The problem is twofold. We want Lego to produce great and desirable sets, but then we all want to buy them and that gets expensive. Just when you think you have caught up, another wave gets released and you are back to square one.
    RonyarFarmer_JohnBuriedinBricks
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    edited January 2015
    With the lack of opportunities to purchase at reasonable prices in the USA, the whole thing is losing its shine.
    I never understand this train of thought as you guys stateside, for the most part, have the cheapest LEGO on the planet.
    RevBluesmargotLegoKip
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,111
    Everything is relative. Lego is cheaper than the EU and Aus in the US, but that doesn't stop someone in the US wanting to get it cheaper still.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    ^ ^ at the monent we here in Australia are actually getting some good pricing when comparing global prices (granted its due to our weak dollar)

    Some exclusive are particular good value when comparing, assuming the right department store stocks it.

    Recently we have seen the following prices during regular sales (I.e. 20% or 25% off):

    Town Hall ($176USD, £117GBP)
    Sydney Opera House ($242USD, £160GBP)
    Fairground Mixer ($121USD, £80GBP)
    Perisian Restaurant ($161USD, £107GBP)
    Palace Cinema ($130USD, £85GBP).

    These are all inclusive of GST (Tax).
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2015
    CCC said:

    Everything is relative. Lego is cheaper than the EU and Aus in the US, but that doesn't stop someone in the US wanting to get it cheaper still.

    And this is wrong because...?

    Frankly, the RRP of a Lego set is irrelevant to me IF I can pick it up from time to time on sale for a reasonable price. We don't have that option in the USA anymore unlike those of you in the EU, UK, etc. Not only does TLG not have sales at [email protected] and in their stores, but they have also stopped all the big distribution companies (Amazon, Walmart, Target, etc.) from having sales on the most desirable sets.
    pharmjoddougts
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    To me the whole thing with LEGO dictating pricing terms to the stores that sell their product just flies in the face of free markets. Make no mistake, it will eventually catch up to them.
    OdinduskVaderX
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    To me the whole thing with LEGO dictating pricing terms to the stores that sell their product just flies in the face of free markets. Make no mistake, it will eventually catch up to them.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,111

    CCC said:

    Everything is relative. Lego is cheaper than the EU and Aus in the US, but that doesn't stop someone in the US wanting to get it cheaper still.

    And this is wrong because...?

    Where did I say it is wrong? It is not wrong.

    I can afford most Lego at RRP. But I'm not going to pay that for it, not when I can normally wait and get a discount.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,111


    Frankly, the RRP of a Lego set is irrelevant to me IF I can pick it up from time to time on sale for a reasonable price. We don't have that option in the USA anymore unlike those of you in the EU, UK, etc. Not only does TLG not have sales at [email protected] and in their stores, but they have also stopped all the big distribution companies (Amazon, Walmart, Target, etc.) from having sales on the most desirable sets.

    Remember too that even though we sometimes get [email protected] discounts, they often don't bring down the prices below US prices. So your unreasonable RRP in the US might actually be less than what others might consider a reasonable sale price in the UK/EU.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    The average American has no idea what the rest of the world pays for Lego. I am sure most don't care. They just know that large Lego set don't go on sale.
    I don't know how this is affecting sales but I have only bought 5 large sets in the last year. Normally that would have be 20 to 30.
    FollowsCloselyBrickDancerdougts
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,111
    ^ Yes, whilst that is true, it currently makes more sense for lego to sell some of it's sets in Europe rather than in the US. Some sets are selling out as fast as they are produced. If the ex-VAT / tax price is significantly more in the UK/EU than the US, then it makes more sense to sell them to Europeans rather than Americans, especially at a discount. Why ship large quantities to the US (with cheaper RRPs than Europe) and need to discount them to sell them all, when they will sell in the EU at little if any discount.

    Indeed, this could be the reason for the US price increases in things like CMFs and baseplates. Your prices are getting close to ours. This type of product doesn't really need to compete with more general toys in the local market. Whereas SW lego and similar sets do need to compete with other similar toys that are on the shelf next to them. So you still get decent prices (compared to the EU) on those type of sets.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2015
    One of the issues with the "no discounts on exclusives" is that Lego can't produce enough sets to meet demand, so there is not a huge amount of incentive for Lego or retailers to give discounts this means that the policy is currently a little moot doesn't it?

    What would be interesting is if Lego actually got ahead on production. My opinion of the no discount policy was that retailers (at least the big ones) got something out of it (such as even better pricing) but maybe they agreed as they knew they were going to be able to move all their stock without discounts anyway..
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,553
    Something about healthcare and taxes comparisons in 3...2...1...
    SirKevbagsLegoKipLegoboycardgeniusLostInTranslationdougts
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 869
    The lack of availability of the Flower Cart is very annoying. It's only a few days into the month! I assume it is sold out in stores as well. I was waiting to go to a store so I could also redeem my coupon for a free LEGO employee minifig from the store calendar.

    But on the other hand, that makes it easy for me to "pass" on new sets at LEGO's RRP. I got the two superhero sets I wanted the most on a great discount at Target, and I'll take the $17+ I saved there over a Flower Cart.
    Farmer_JohnBrickDancer
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,111

    Something about healthcare and taxes comparisons in 3...2...1...

    That's why I mentioned ex-VAT prices (even though it is impossible to buy ex-VAT from lego retail).

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