Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SuperTramp

Anyone know whats happening with #75021, is it just sold out at Lego because of the Christmas sales or is it EOL?

edgarallanpoe14

Myer in Australia were doing a buy 2 get 1 free promotion so I cracked and picked up three #70810 Metalbeard's Sea Cows. I want to keep one to build but I'm wondering whether to flip the other two, or if it might be worthwhile to wait and see what happens. I kind of have a feeling that it's not going to be around for years and years because as the Lego Movie fades into the distance its marketability and the marketability of other Lego Movie merchandise decreases. Very expensive too, and the primary audience of the film being the 14 and under crowd I really wonder whether the set's got legs.

prevere

I think the returns will be very average (1.5x retail), only spiking when a new movie comes out, and then dying down again after the release.

Pepper

Is #10225 gone for good?

stevemack

Yup! 99% likely

Dougout

^^I don't have insider info, but from what has been mentioned here before and by the fact that it has been sold out for a good two months at [email protected], I would say it's time is over with.

edgarallanpoe14 said:

Myer in Australia were doing a buy 2 get 1 free promotion so I cracked and picked up three #70810 Metalbeard's Sea Cows. I want to keep one to build but I'm wondering whether to flip the other two, or if it might be worthwhile to wait and see what happens. I kind of have a feeling that it's not going to be around for years and years because as the Lego Movie fades into the distance its marketability and the marketability of other Lego Movie merchandise decreases. Very expensive too, and the primary audience of the film being the 14 and under crowd I really wonder whether the set's got legs.

I'm not too familiar with Myer cuz we don't have any in the States, but I would say if you have a chance to get more on another 3 for 2 promotion then go ahead and flip them. Keeping one is always smart, but the Sea Cow ship seems like one of those sets that stocking a small number would seem better. You can always risk it and wait to buy extras until retirement. There may not be a reseller buying frenzy with this one.

madforLEGO

waynegg said:

With the talk of Jokerland, I've been thinking a lot about 6857. It retired a year or so ago but can still be found here and there. What are the chances of this being a good short term investment?

I dunno. I would say that if the Jokerland is a real set and comes out, it may be replacing AA in which case it will be about 160 USD like AA was. That would then mean #6857 will be a cheaper alternative However considering it is barely raising, and likely will remain that way as rumors of a similar set are coming out, then not sure what they will do in the long run. My optimistic side says they will rise a bit more anyway due to the constrictive price of anything that is 160 USD; but the negative side of me says there are a ton of them out there and would have normally been a lag for them to rise and will likley be stunted by a competing set, even if that set is expensive.But seeing #8097 still rising/staying at its price now even though the USD Slave 1 is coming gives me some hope. It will also depend on if the figures for #6857 are re-released for that new set.

SuperTramp said:

Anyone know whats happening with #75021, is it just sold out at Lego because of the Christmas sales or is it EOL?

Im guessing it is 'sold out' due to the sale going on at LEGO at they do not want to sell anymore at that price, but that is just a guess. I see the #60026 Town Square is 'sold out' too, but I think TS has another year is it still if memory serves me correctly (both came out in 13, this would usually mean they will be around until mid/late 15) .
So I'm guessing LEGO has them both 'sold out' because they do not want to sell anymore at that sale price.
As always if you want one, buy one when you can get them, or risk them gone when you decide you want one.

prevere

I'd be very disappointed to see a big Jokerland before a proper Wayne Manor w/ secret doors / mini Batcave is done.

Milne44

Do you think it will be game over for VW Camper after the F40 car comes out in July

prevere

Camper has its own timeline. By the end of 2015, game over man!

madforLEGO

Milne44 said:

Do you think it will be game over for VW Camper after the F40 car comes out in July

By last accounts from those who seem to be in the know, VW camper van was extended 1 year only, this means they likely will be done producing the set by late summer/early fall then let remaining stocks sell out.
Then again, LEGO is not always so predictable and may only make VW vans until early summer.
I would say if you are in the US and see a double points offer from LEGO, buy then. Anywhere else, if you see them on sale and want one, buy it soon

waynegg

@madforLEGO‌ I was in the mindset of Jokerland possibly not having that particular construct and 6857 being more of a complimentary (not free, the other definition of complimentary) set to complete the scene.

BrickDancer

Complimentary vs. Complementary. Sorry couldn't help it =P

prevere

I just get the feeling a Joker Wonderland would look like a Winter Village Market in DC Superhero format. But if Batman is disguised as a clown on stilts, I'll let it go.

waynegg

BrickDancer said:

Complimentary vs. Complementary. Sorry couldn't help it =P

Stupid English language XD

Brickarmor

R2 finally switched to "Sold Out" while Orthanc is available again on US [email protected]

BrickDancer

T-minus 30:40 hrs until the heavy weight bout of champions begins. In the brown corner, we have Hoth Han and in the silver corner, we have TC-14.

TC's coach, @samiam391‌ , is ever present. While Han's trainor, @y2josh, hasn't been seen in months. Odds don't look good for Han, but he'll come out swinging.

Let's get ready to rumble!!!

doriansdad

Wasn't Hoth Han going to be given out again this Feb as a promo?

SirBen

@doriansdad Yes, Hoth Han is the free gift with purchase during February with the coupon from the 2015 calendar.

samiam391

LEGO had so many excess from two years ago that they are trying to get rid of them. They've tried countless ways to do this, including giving packets of 100 away to people at LEGO stores. Unfortunately for them, people have refused these polybags citing the disgusting minifigure within the polybag. People have been using them as fuels for fires.

Tommy, age 8, is quoted as saying "I can't believe they made another Han Solo. And in Hoth, a pitiful wasteland? A re-seller came into my local store that was having a 95% off sale and took everything but that polybag. I had the option to pick it up, but instead I spit on it and left."

LEGO has recently heard that sales this February will decrease due to the inclusion of the Hoth Han polybag. This is one freebie that no one wants included in their order.

Thus, LEGO has secretly hidden all their remaining Hoth Han polybags in fireworks that will be launched into the air on January 1st. The shape that will be created in the air will be that of TC-14.

And it will be chrome.

And it will be beautiful.

TheBrickLadd

What's everyone's thoughts on Birds ideas set due for release tomorrow?

Will it be a sell out like the other Exo suit and research institute on first run?

black_towr

TheBrickLadd said:

What's everyone's thoughts on Birds ideas set due for release tomorrow?

Will it be a sell out like the other Exo suit and research institute on first run?

I think it's a great set and should perform just like the sets you had mentioned.

BuriedinBricks

Spotted the "retiring soon" label on #6862. Any increase on this one will likely be slow, given it's one of the few Wave 1 sets to still be around. Superman/Wonder Woman are also in the 2015 wave of sets and it was on sale frequently. Still, it's probably one of my favorite sets out of this theme so far at the $20 price point.

prevere

^It's about time, since that set came out in 1991. ;)

Plell

R2-D2 may surprise you.

BuriedinBricks

prevere said:

^It's about time, since that set came out in 1991. ;)

LOL...oops. I meant #6862-2. Never noticed the -2 before.

Side note - Man, M-TRON era space was weird.

pharmjod

For those that care, R2-D2, Town Hall, Haunted House, Grand Emporium, Arkham Asylum and Horizon Express are all listed on sale now in addition to being sold out. All that's left now is an "official" retired tag.

vasp

Tumbler available on target.com. No limit that I can see right now. can't say how long this will last.
http://www.target.com/p/lego-super-heroes-the-tumbler-76023/-/A-16752456#prodSlot=medium_1_14&term=lego

CoraHarrison

No campers on sale in the Leeds store. Could this be the end for Campers in the UK?

theLEGOman

I take it Leeds is open today then, contrary to what the LEGO website says? they are not going to like the results of the survey window they asked me to fill in.

madforLEGO

Too bad LEGO's CS is not available today. 10228 Haunted house is showing at 161.98 USD and call for availability.
Oh what could have been for [email protected] US if they were not SOLD OUT: GE is showing at 135, and TH is showing at 180 , HE is showing at 116, WVM 90. AA at 143 and change..

mathew

madforLEGO said:

Too bad LEGO's CS is not available today. 10228 Haunted house is showing at 161.98 USD and call for availability.
Oh what could have been for [email protected] US if they were not SOLD OUT: GE is showing at 135, and TH is showing at 180 , HE is showing at 116, WVM 90. AA at 143 and change..

Lego is just saying "Bleep You!" to all of the resellers.

madforLEGO

mathew said:

madforLEGO said:

Too bad LEGO's CS is not available today. 10228 Haunted house is showing at 161.98 USD and call for availability.
Oh what could have been for [email protected] US if they were not SOLD OUT: GE is showing at 135, and TH is showing at 180 , HE is showing at 116, WVM 90. AA at 143 and change..

Lego is just saying "Bleep You!" to all of the resellers.

Hah, More Like typical LEGO system issues where they show sets on discount that are long gone, been happening for a few years now every Christmas/New Years.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is that once retail outlets have run out of their supplies of the sets LEGO can then discount them (like The 10223 Joust) but that is only a guess.

Dougout

^This is more annoying than the actual ban on discounts. Okay, so no discounts..........until the set is long gone, then we add the discount to show what it would have been if we did discounts.

Does anyone really want to see TH for $180 or R2 for $162 when they've been gone for months? It's 2015 already, fake discounts shouldn't exist. I would call it a glitch, but it's obviously not.

Oh my local dealership is doing a 15% discount on last year's models. Oh, but when you get there, full price everything. SMH

Dad

CoraHarrison said:

No campers on sale in the Leeds store. Could this be the end for Campers in the UK?

Leeds store doesn't get everything. Have they had them in the past? I was told once on the phone they never stocked HH as they didn't get everything. I was surprised but wouldn't doubt what I was told.

Buoerny

The reductions on sold out sets makes even less sense when you consider that plenty of people would appear to be willing to buy the relevant sets at full price if any actually remained in stock somewhere.

sweetness34

I think they discount the sold out sets so if someone tries to return one to the store they get less back for the refund.

theLEGOman

Dad said:

CoraHarrison said:

No campers on sale in the Leeds store. Could this be the end for Campers in the UK?

Leeds store doesn't get everything. Have they had them in the past? I was told once on the phone they never stocked HH as they didn't get everything. I was surprised but wouldn't doubt what I was told.

I've purchased a Camper van and HH from the Leeds store before.

legofanfromleeds

Dad said:

CoraHarrison said:

No campers on sale in the Leeds store. Could this be the end for Campers in the UK?

Leeds store doesn't get everything. Have they had them in the past? I was told once on the phone they never stocked HH as they didn't get everything. I was surprised but wouldn't doubt what I was told.

i have a HH and i live in leeds and i shop at trinity so i guess they did have them in store as im living proof

stevemack

sweetness34 said:

I think they discount the sold out sets so if someone tries to return one to the store they get less back for the refund.

Doesn't work like that. If you pay X and return it with the receipt you get X back even if they now sell it for 99% less!

If you lost the receipt however that would be different unless you proove what you paid!

Legoboy

^ But also reduces the amount of store credit given to those trying to return their Argos 3for2 after 20% purchases. Yes, happened before my eyes on Monday.

CCC

stevemack said:

sweetness34 said:

I think they discount the sold out sets so if someone tries to return one to the store they get less back for the refund.

Doesn't work like that. If you pay X and return it with the receipt you get X back even if they now sell it for 99% less!

If you lost the receipt however that would be different unless you proove what you paid!

That's the point of doing it. If you lose / don't have the receipt, they only give you the lowest price it has ever been. Not that they have to refund at all, of course.

Argos do the same thing. They occasionally have sales when things are temporarily OOS for when people take back their Christmas presents without the receipt.

Dougout

There are no Argos in the US, there are no discounts on any exclusives in the US from any retailer. So what is the reason the site shows discounts in the US?

Does that mean some people are still getting discounts here through a loophole while the rest still have to pay through the nose?

pharmjod

It's a 27% discount

flyingpig

sweetness34 said:

I think they discount the sold out sets so if someone tries to return one to the store they get less back for the refund.

This is exactly why the do it. Returns without receipts get less money back.

Ma1234

They are not fake discounts. Lowering the pricr helps prevent fraudulent return activity in stores.

Ma1234

They are not fake discounts. Lowering the pricr helps prevent fraudulent return activity in stores.

Ma1234

They are not fake discounts. Lowering the pricr helps prevent fraudulent return activity in stores.

Pitfall69

I understand some people in this forum are thick headed, but most of us got what you were saying the first time ;)

leego76

Reduced return values are not always the case - we once returned a pushchair (stroller for this across the pond?) without receipt but had to provide a bank statement showing the transaction. Despite showing / telling the store what we paid we actually got significantly more as it had gone up in the meantime. Bit of a result.