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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,727
    I expect that Benny's Spaceship will do quite well. It could EOL like some large sets do after the holidays or perhaps more likely, next summer when the next wave of big sets rolls out. And as long as kids and parents keep watching their copy of the Lego Movie it will maintain desirability.
    brickupdateDanGP
  • AanchirAanchir Member Posts: 3,043
    binaryeye said:

    What are everyone's thoughts on #70803 Cloud Cuckoo Palace?

    I'm not a reseller but thought about putting a couple of these away as trade fodder a couple years down the road. And if they end up worth less than what I bought them for, I can open them and have a bunch of interesting pieces.

    Those were a really hot item earlier in the year (many stores sold out of them completely), but it's possible the LEGO Group ramped up production since then and was able to satisfy some of that demand.

    It's still the only set to include standard Unikitty, a character whose different variants have some considerable value for many collectors. It's also the only set with Executron, a fig which has some value as an army builder.

    Besides that, as you point out, it's loaded with interesting parts, including some recolors we might be unlikely to see again anytime soon. So yeah, good set to hold onto!

    I expect the set to disappear from shelves sometime in 2015. The new Unikitty in the Double Decker Couch set might very easily be aimed at keeping Unikitty available once Cloud Cuckoo Palace reaches its EOL.
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651
    ^It was the most popular set around the movie's release, if I recall correctly, it includes three major characters, and it has a bunch unique pieces. It's also relatively inexpensive so if you only buy a few it's not a huge risk. I would guess it will do well. But I'm not an expert.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I'm liking Lord Business' Lair from the first series. Only "base" from the series.
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    ^That one is also the cheapest way to get the standard Vitruvius. I can see MetalBeard's Duel being sought after too; he's the only main character who won't be in the next wave in any form. Dark horse of the TLM line: Ice Cream Machine?
  • ShibShib Member Posts: 5,477
    ^I've heard a lot of city builders say how they love the Ice Cream Machine for city layouts. Not so much has been said for the Flying Flusher.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp Member Posts: 1,021
    RI out of stock again on S@H UK, ships in 30 days.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I'm curious when the Movie sets will start disappearing for good. Thinking by Q2 next year.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    On the off chance that Orthanc might EOL this year, I ordered some from US S@H when they were "ships in 30 days" around BF. They've shipped now, and it's in stock at Target.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    Brickarmor said:

    On the off chance that Orthanc might EOL this year, I ordered some from US S@H when they were "ships in 30 days" around BF. They've shipped now, and it's in stock at Target.

    It still could EOL, I guess it depends on if it will be seen in the 3rd Hobbit movie, in which case it may either:
    Cause LEGO to leave it out for another year
    Cause remaining stocks to sell out faster
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    edited December 2014
    Also 'Sold out' at S@H (US):
    #21103 Microworld Minecraft forest
    #10223 Joust
    #76000 Batman Vs My Freeze
    #4204 City Mine
    #4203 Excavator and transport
    #4201 Loading and tipping

    Stuff that is call for availability:

    #60056 City tow truck-Call for availability
    #60020 City Cargo truck - Call for availability
    #60019 Stunt Plane, call for availability
    #79003 An Unexpected gathering - Call for availability
    #31009 Small Cottage - Call for availability
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,308
    madforLEGO said:


    It still could EOL, I guess it depends on if it will be seen in the 3rd Hobbit movie, in

    I don't see how that could happen....

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    The Tower of Orthanc is not on the "list" of exclusives to go.
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    was R2 on the list or not... there are so many lists to keep track of!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^Yes.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I honestly don't know how Lego determines when a set goes EOL? Do they have a set production number? Do they have a set date and after that date Lego doesn't make anymore of that set? Supply and demand? Cost of production? I'm curious if they have a tried and true template that they use to determine when they are going to stop production of a set.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    ^My guess is that it is some what variable, they probably have an initial EOL date in mind and how many of a set they plan to make when a set first gets the go ahead.

    I am then sure that some where at Lego HQ they periodically look at sales data, wholesale orders, there market research, production capacity and what new sets are coming out. I would imagine that they adjust schedules accordingly if need be.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    BTW, the "list" is just a list of sets due to EOL and the the information is from reliable sources. I'm sure the "list" keeps changing as more information is obtained, but so far it has been spot on.
  • vaspvasp Member Posts: 73
    madforLEGO said:

    Also 'Sold out' at S@H (US):
    #21103 Microworld Minecraft forest
    #10223 Joust
    #76000 Batman Vs My Freeze
    #4204 City Mine
    #4203 Excavator and transport
    #4201 Loading and tipping

    Stuff that is call for availability:

    #60056 City tow truck-Call for availability
    #60020 City Cargo truck - Call for availability
    #60019 Stunt Plane, call for availability
    #79003 An Unexpected gathering - Call for availability
    #31009 Small Cottage - Call for availability

    Add 7965 Falcon to list of Sold Out at s@H(US)
  • cheekymunk3ycheekymunk3y Member Posts: 108
    Falcon 7965 definitely retired. I got an email yesterday from Lego customer service in response to me asking when they would get it back in.
  • cheekymunk3ycheekymunk3y Member Posts: 108
    (i'm fairly new to the Forums so maybe that was already known)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^Yes, that was discussed not too long ago. Whats was also discussed was how it would do post retirement, when the new one would be released and when the best time to sell it was :)
  • bp10030bp10030 Member Posts: 102
    WVM finally has it end: "Call to check product availability..." for #10235 at S@H EU
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^The Winter Village Market is a tricky one. I'm not sure how it will do post retirement. If it does well; I'm thinking it is mostly due to the fact it is part of the Winter Village series. To me, it is an uninspiring set on its own.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^I am on the fence about it as I think many are. As you stated, stand alone it is a little bit on the cheesy side, but it is a good accompaniment to the rest of the village, and the carousel is cool. I expect it will appreciate the least of any of the series, but that doesn't stop me from buying some:). If you want it, buy it soon. Stock is drying up.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I have a few, but other than the Toy Shop, I don't think any of the other Winter Village sets lasted this deep into December have they? My memory is going a bit. The fact that the Market is still around tells me something.
    FollowsClosely
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    I went light on the Market too, got half as many as Cottages. Hot and heavy as the EOL season has been there were just better places to put money.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^That's part the recipe for a big winner. However, I'm not biting, just have one for my collection.
  • PoochyPoochy Member Posts: 479
    ^ Same here, picked up one for my collection over BF. They still have stacks of them at my local store. If they last until January, I may pick up another to get the freebie.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    The cottage was available into january in store last year! So any WVM i buy will be post xmas (if any at all)
    FollowsClosely
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    Pitfall69 said:

    I have a few, but other than the Toy Shop, I don't think any of the other Winter Village sets lasted this deep into December have they? My memory is going a bit. The fact that the Market is still around tells me something.

    The WVM is the only one of the Winter series that was never on sale in the US since the no exclusive discount kicked-in. I remember seeing the Cottage 30% off in Feb 2013.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    What do you think about the two vehicles that are currently on-sale at Lego.com. The Crawler 4x4 for $156, and the Grand Prix Racer for $103. These are 2 examples of sets that do nothing for me personally, but I wonder about their upside potential.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 Member Posts: 2,101
    21103 Sold out at Lego.com (US). Still available at Walmart for $34.45. Limit 5.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 Member Posts: 2,101
    stevemack said:

    The cottage was available into january in store last year! So any WVM i buy will be post xmas (if any at all)

    Looks like it's now sold out (US).

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2014
    enotoga said:

    What do you think about the two vehicles that are currently on-sale at Lego.com. The Crawler 4x4 for $156, and the Grand Prix Racer for $103. These are 2 examples of sets that do nothing for me personally, but I wonder about their upside potential.

    I already had a Crawler, but just put in an order for the Grand Prix Racer. The GPR looked great in the store display, and I've always wanted to purchase a copy. Fortunately, I was able to order one from TLG Customer Service this morning so that I wouldn't regret not picking one up in a year. I guess now I get to wait and see if one actually gets shipped since it's listed as "check for availability."
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    ecmo47 said:

    stevemack said:

    The cottage was available into january in store last year! So any WVM i buy will be post xmas (if any at all)

    Looks like it's now sold out (US).

    I think the WVM #10235 is done for good and Santa's Workshop #10245 is done for the season (it's currently listed at S@H as "Temporarily Out of Stock"). Why would TLG produce more Christmas sets to sell post-Christmas? Toss in the fact that January is when TLG releases a lot of new sets (DA, Slave 1, and an array of smaller sets), and my guess is that #10245 won't return until next October (assuming TLG is true to form), along with (hopefully) a new WV-themed set. Another thread is mentioning a potential "Holiday Train" as the next WV set...I guess we'll see.

    Additionally, the WV-themed sets all seem to be doing pretty well in general, so I don't think TLG will kill off that particular theme just yet; however, I just have to wonder if having a "Santa's Workshop" is an indication that the end is near for the WV theme. Seems like that idea (a Santa's Workshop) would be the "piece de resistance" for this particular theme. Not trying to start a rumor; just thinking out loud...
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    I agree that the Workshop makes a great capstone to the line. And if you're a freak for semantics, the video does say that the set will "complete" your Winter Village collection. I'm sure TLG can do more sets in the theme, but at the same time it's not inexhaustible, so it may be better to finish it off (before it gets stale) and start something else. And if SW is the last, it wouldn't surprise me to see it back not only for 2012 (that's almost a given) but again in 2016.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited December 2014
    Staples is offering a $20 bonus egift card when you purchase a $100 egift card (deal expires 12/20 or when supplies run out):

    https://staples.cashstar.com/

    You can do a single $200 order and you will qualify for the two $20 bonuses.

    Staples instore sells amazon gift cards. Some cashiers have been trained not to allow you to purchase gift cards with a gift card but their checkout system will allow it. If you frequent your local staples and know the staff it is a great way to get 20% (sorry 17%) off future purchases at amazon. Limit 2 per customer (i.e. email address).
    Pitfall69Thanos75bluedragon
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    What would be interesting to see is for them to finish off the Winter Village line, but to start a completely different Winter display line. I would love a Winter chalet, ski lifts, ski hills, bears, rabbits, tubing, skating, etc. (Yes, I know they have done skating.)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    tamamahm said:

    What would be interesting to see is for them to finish off the Winter Village line, but to start a completely different Winter display line. I would love a Winter chalet, ski lifts, ski hills, bears, rabbits, tubing, skating, etc. (Yes, I know they have done skating.)

    I think there are a couple of Winter them ideas that can still occur. It would be a shame for the line to go, but you only can come up with so many sets before they seem to start overlapping a bit.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^This is true, but a village has more than just one cottage or house. Maybe a few more houses of varying designs could be put out.
  • Legopassion8Legopassion8 Member Posts: 1,181
    I think it's time for a Winter Village Train set. The Depot is a good idea, but how bout a little more. Carry on...
  • goshe7goshe7 Member Posts: 515
    madforLEGO said:

    I think there are a couple of Winter them ideas that can still occur. It would be a shame for the line to go, but you only can come up with so many sets before they seem to start overlapping a bit.

    It doesn't matter to LEGO if sets overlap. That is why we have been offered countless police stations or fire stations to buy. There are always new consumers happy to buy the new variant.

    Giving this about 180 seconds of thought and research, I offer the following ideas for this nearly complete line: candy shop, coffee shop, town square, courthouse, chapel, elf house, ornament shop, flower (poinsettia) shop, train station, barber shop, candy factory, inn, pub, clock tower, reindeer stable, school, art/craft shop, restaurant, tree farm/lot. That's about 20. Let's assume 75% of my list is junk that doesn't make a good LEGO set. That is enough to almost double the lifespan of the theme.
    LostInTranslationJohnnyfinlandia
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    edited December 2014
    For what it is worth, Horizon Express is no longer available at Amazon.com (US). that is Amazon.com is no longer selling it (but 3rd parties have it)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2014
    ^I don't disagree that there are many additional possibilities for the WV-themed sets, but that doesn't mean that TLG will continue the line.

    Another tact that may drive the continuation of this theme is that it drives sales of other sets during the 4th quarter of each year. The freebee sets TLG produces each year generally have tie-ins to the WV theme, and there are a lot of orders that are made just to get those freebees. TLG had a price point below $75 for most of these sets; hence, additional sets were likely added by customers to orders to get the free shipping (and whatever other freebee was available).

    I hope TLG doesn't kill the theme, but there's always that possibility. If I was going to kill it off, the logical time would be after releasing Santa's Workshop.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Farmer_John said:

    enotoga said:

    What do you think about the two vehicles that are currently on-sale at Lego.com. The Crawler 4x4 for $156, and the Grand Prix Racer for $103. These are 2 examples of sets that do nothing for me personally, but I wonder about their upside potential.

    I already had a Crawler, but just put in an order for the Grand Prix Racer. The GPR looked great in the store display, and I've always wanted to purchase a copy. Fortunately, I was able to order one from TLG Customer Service this morning so that I wouldn't regret not picking one up in a year. I guess now I get to wait and see if one actually gets shipped since it's listed as "check for availability."
    Darn......I missed the Grand Prix Racer and now it's sold out. Good job jumping on that one - it might be gone for good. Interesting that The Delorean sold out too. That thing was online at Walmart.com at $26 forever. I think there will be a lot of secondary demand for The Delorean and the GPR.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2014
    ^Yeah...I tried adding the GPR to my cart last night as it showed available, but their system wouldn't let me add it. I think S@H was flaking out a little bit. The lady I spoke to this morning in Customer Service acted like they had quite a few based on her response when I asked. My order currently shows as "in the warehouse," so we'll see what happens. It' my bad for not getting it sooner if they end up not shipping it though; I've been thinking about getting this set for awhile now and just didn't get around to it.

    By the way, it's worth calling customer service to see if they have any left. You never know...
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    The racer looks cool, Technic sets don't stick around too long. I got one racer at RRP a week ago when I noticed other retailers were sold out. TLG only did the 20% discount to get rid of the last bit of stock.

    It will be interesting to see how this one does. Technic sets are starting to look more appealing to me, I don't know why. I've got to get the Cargo plane soon too.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2014
    ^I saw the Cargo plane on display in the store and purchased it right away. It's just awesome looking. Fortunately it's also a new release, so it should hopefully be around through the end of 2015 if you want to purchase one.
  • bp10030bp10030 Member Posts: 102
    edited December 2014
    The GP racer should look cool besides the new Le Mans racer coming out next year #42039 They have the same scale.
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