Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

BuriedinBricks

Heh, grabbed AA during double points earlier this fall because I knew I just couldn't stand to miss it. I guess a lot of people were just as scared they would miss it (and acted in time, I hope).

Pitfall69

AA has been out for almost 2 years. If you missed out...well...I really don't know what yo say?

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

AA has been out for almost 2 years. If you missed out...well...I really don't know what yo say?

@Pitfall69 - I'm still drooling over the images you posted of the GG and CC sets you found buried in your boxes.

I actually had a GG in hand in my house just before it EOL'd, and found out when it arrived that it was drop shipped by a less than reputable company using someone else's credit card. I knew nothing about drop shipping, but smelled a rat. I called TLG about it and promptly returned the set. By the time the dust settled, the GG was EOL'd and I was on TLG's "watch list" just because I was unfortunate enough to use the wrong reseller. I was a pure novice at the time (regarding sellers), but quickly learned what to look thanks in part to this site.

Pitfall69

That's horrible my friend. I feel for you...I really do :(

I didn't post the picture to brag or to make anyone feel bad. The truth is; I was very fortunate to grab a CC. I couldn't fathom paying that much for a Lego set, but I did and felt guilty about it for weeks and almost send it back.

Farmer_John

^Nope...I didn't take it as a brag at all. I just liked the fact that you dug something like that out from a pile a boxes (and I have a lot of those around). It gives one hope... ;-)

prevere

Wonder what large playsets Lego has planned for Batman with AA and Batcave sold out? I'm not counting the Tumbler as one, only because I think that serves a different audience.

Bumblepants

^I expect they will have something ready for the summer '15 launch when the bigger sets tend to release.

Hardrada

I accidentally saw an ordering list for exclusives early summer. Grand Emporium, Sopwith Camel, R2-D2 and SSD were indicated as retiring by the end of this year as it indeed happened. As far as I could see Kingdoms Joust and Haunted House were not even on the list any more so I assume they couldn't be ordered by retailers even back then.

But there were some interesting things in there:
- Town Hall had a retiring date of end of 2015. So probably it was decided to retire it early about half a year ago.
- Arkham Asylum and Winter Village Market had a retiring date of late 2015 and Horizon Express a retiring date of late 2016. I'm not sure what to think about these. There might be a chance that AA and HE are just sold out temporarily and will come back into production after Christmas.
- Death Star had a retiring date of late 2014 on this list but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

SuperTramp

HE is 100% retired, they wouldn't cancel that many orders if it was coming back. they would just get backordered. AA im on the fence about. i think that might make a come back closer to Christmas.

Milne44

My AA Order was cancelled by [email protected] last week , so I think it's gone

Hardrada

I think cancellations could happen if as of now it wasn't scheduled for another production run yet so they wouldn't know the likely shipping date or if it was too far out in the future. Still it would probably be bad business practice as there would be quite a few angry buyers out there if HE turned up again on [email protected] say in April at full RRP. So I have to agree that the cancellations are a strong sign of retirement.

To be honest I never saw anything like this with high profile sets but some fringe sets have already returned after a longer hiatus. The Brick Calendar for example was sold out on European [email protected] sites (and if I remember correctly in the US, too) for about half a year then it came back when I think everyone assumed it long gone.

Basta

I'm not 100% on this, but doesn't [email protected] only like placing things on backorder for so long. So if they know that they are not going to get more in for at least X amount of time, they'll just cancel.

stevemack

I'm curious how many death stars are actually being held by ppl now, I've got 5 personally and won't buy more until it shows a sign of going, how about others?

SuperTramp

Don't own any, but had and sold at least 4-5

Farmer_John

Hardrada said:

I think cancellations could happen if as of now it wasn't scheduled for another production run yet so they wouldn't know the likely shipping date or if it was too far out in the future. Still it would probably be bad business practice as there would be quite a few angry buyers out there if HE turned up again on [email protected] say in April at full RRP. So I have to agree that the cancellations are a strong sign of retirement.

I've never heard of TLG having a set listed as "sold out" for several months only to start re-releasing it again. There is a lot of chatter regarding that possibility. Out of curiosity, which sets has TLG ever done that with? Polybags...Yes! Actual sets...none to my knowledge.

Perhaps just some wishful thinking...

msanders

Farmer_John said:

Hardrada said:

I think cancellations could happen if as of now it wasn't scheduled for another production run yet so they wouldn't know the likely shipping date or if it was too far out in the future. Still it would probably be bad business practice as there would be quite a few angry buyers out there if HE turned up again on [email protected] say in April at full RRP. So I have to agree that the cancellations are a strong sign of retirement.

I've never heard of TLG having a set listed as "sold out" for several months only to start re-releasing it again. There is a lot of chatter regarding that possibility. Out of curiosity, which sets has TLG ever done that with? Polybags...Yes! Actual sets...none to my knowledge.

Perhaps just some wishful thinking...

The #21110 Research Institute is a great example of a set going sold out online to now reappear (at least in the UK). At the time of going sold out, lots of people had cancellations of their orders. So TLG do cancel orders of sets going out of stock that may then reappear at a later date.

Its possible that other sets will be coming back but I'm not saying they definitely will. I think that Horizon express is gone because there is a two year cycle with the creator train sets.

Farmer_John

msanders said:

The #21110 Research Institute is a great example of a set going sold out online to now reappear (at least in the UK). At the time of going sold out, lots of people had cancellations of their orders. So TLG do cancel orders of sets going out of stock that may then reappear at a later date.

Its possible that other sets will be coming back but I'm not saying they definitely will. I think that Horizon express is gone because there is a two year cycle with the creator train sets.

The Research Institute #21110 wasn't sold out for "months"...maybe a month or so. Statistically speaking, the longer a set has been marked as "sold out" the less likely it will ever appear on shelves again.

There's a lot of chatter circulating that TLG will resume producing sets like the TB, GE, etc. again. Again, it's possible...but not probable.

Hardrada

Farmer_John said:

The Research Institute #21110 wasn't sold out for "months"...maybe a month or so. Statistically speaking, the longer a set has been marked as "sold out" the less likely it will ever appear on shelves again.

It was sold out from late August to just a few days ago on European [email protected] (afaik it was about the same in the US, too). And orders for it were cancelled back when the first batch sold out.

ColoradoBricks

#21050 was sold out in Aug 2013 in the US then came back in Feb 2014 (with a $10 increase)

Brickarmor

Batcave, GE, and (if I recall correctly) nearly the entire Castle line was labeled "sold out" late last year, and all reappeared.

prevere

I still find the Tumbler situation pretty humorous. I don't think I've ever seen such an apologetic out of stock response from a retailer before. Ever. Still makes me laugh. It's as if they are begging people not to call and ask about it's availability.

"This is a very popular set and we’ve had a lot more orders than we expected. We’re sorry that we don’t have any in stock at the moment, and we’re working hard to make more. Check back soon!"

legoboy1066

Customer Service informed me that HE is now a retired product.

msanders

Farmer_John said:

msanders said:

The #21110 Research Institute is a great example of a set going sold out online to now reappear (at least in the UK). At the time of going sold out, lots of people had cancellations of their orders. So TLG do cancel orders of sets going out of stock that may then reappear at a later date.

Its possible that other sets will be coming back but I'm not saying they definitely will. I think that Horizon express is gone because there is a two year cycle with the creator train sets.

The Research Institute #21110 wasn't sold out for "months"...maybe a month or so. Statistically speaking, the longer a set has been marked as "sold out" the less likely it will ever appear on shelves again.

There's a lot of chatter circulating that TLG will resume producing sets like the TB, GE, etc. again. Again, it's possible...but not probable.

As @Hardrada said, it sold out in August and its now December so that is months. Also, (slightly tongue in cheek), the winter village sets go sold out (around December/January) and then come back in stock in November time!

madforLEGO

prevere said:

I still find the Tumbler situation pretty humorous. I don't think I've ever seen such an apologetic out of stock response from a retailer before. Ever. Still makes me laugh. It's as if they are begging people not to call and ask about it's availability.

"This is a very popular set and we’ve had a lot more orders than we expected. We’re sorry that we don’t have any in stock at the moment, and we’re working hard to make more. Check back soon!"

Seems like they are doing that a lot lately (too many lines). All that is going to do is frustrate buyers IMO.
I say do not count a set out until it shows on [email protected] as 'retired product'

hoyatables

Research Institute is not a good example at all. That was a very unique situation (though also mimicked the issues with minecraft when it was initially released). LEGO misjudged the popularity of the set.

Architecture Studio is also a poor example. Unique set with limited initial release at just LEGO and one retailer (BN), and it was pulled after a short period of time.

When it comes to mainstream sets, once they are retired and sold out, they are sold out. I think there's a lot of wishful thinking going on here.

Part of the confusion may be LEGO [email protected]'s nomenclature. "Sold out" on the website doesn't necessarily mean "retired" or "not coming back." Perhaps someone more familiar with the details than me should post a list of the various statuses that LEGO uses and what they actually mean...

Brickarmor

madforLEGO said:

I say do not count a set out until it shows on [email protected] as 'retired product'

So there's hope? ;-)

msanders

hoyatables said:

Research Institute is not a good example at all. That was a very unique situation (though also mimicked the issues with minecraft when it was initially released). LEGO misjudged the popularity of the set.

Architecture Studio is also a poor example. Unique set with limited initial release at just LEGO and one retailer (BN), and it was pulled after a short period of time.

When it comes to mainstream sets, once they are retired and sold out, they are sold out. I think there's a lot of wishful thinking going on here.

Part of the confusion may be LEGO [email protected]'s nomenclature. "Sold out" on the website doesn't necessarily mean "retired" or "not coming back." Perhaps someone more familiar with the details than me should post a list of the various statuses that LEGO uses and what they actually mean...

They are examples though! The comments were in response to 'I've NEVER seen a set say sold out for several months and then come back'.

Also, I don't really get the term 'mainstream'? Sold in shops other than Lego shops? Popular demand? Appeal to the masses? Research institute was on 'mainstream' media sources, and other ideas (Cuusoo) sets are sold in 'mainstream' retailers. Are modulars and large exclusive sets 'mainstream'?

Anyways, don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing that some of these 'Sold out' sets will reappear like the examples that have been given, just that there have been examples. Clearly, the terms that Lego use are misleading and even when they give 'will ship on X date' may mean completely sold out.

TheLoneTensor

legoboy1066 said:

Customer Service informed me that HE is now a retired product.

They don't normally do that, and even when they do, they are generally uninformed.

SuperTramp

Ive read that on here since ive joined but who's the person on here that confirmed this for has absolute fact for most to say they don't "normally do that, they are generally uniformed"?

Who told you this?

Lego told me Fire Brigade had retired - Turned out right
Lego told me Grand Emporium had retired - Turned out right
Lego told me Horizon Express had retired - Turned out right

Also why it Lego that this only applies, how come most other outlets can tell you with certainly, for instance my mother can tell you if Birds Eye fish fingers have retired from the frozen section in the Co-op.

Not being awkward, genuinely want to know.

Pitfall69

^There are always anomalies. Jabbas Palace sold out because of the bogus report that Muslims wanted the set banned. Speculators hoarded these sets and sold them immediately for a profit. Minecraft is very similar to RI, but TLG learned from their mistake with Minecraft and is making RI readily available for the Holidays.

HE is on "the list" to retire, so I am not surprised orders are being cancelled, although you are still able to order from US [email protected] So, again, please state where you are from instead of randomly throwing out "Sold Out at [email protected]"!!!

legoboy1066

TheLoneTensor said:

legoboy1066 said:

Customer Service informed me that HE is now a retired product.

They don't normally do that, and even when they do, they are generally uninformed.

In the past, I have called Customer Service about other products and they have told me that a product is retired and they have been correct.

Brickaholic

Did'nt #6858 go retired in the US then come back for a bit? Rings a bell somewhere.

Pitfall69

I think some are mixing up Customer Service at Lego [email protected] with employees at Lego Brand Stores. In my personal experience Customer Service Representatives are more informed than employees at Lego Brand Stores.

binaryeye

hoyatables said:

When it comes to mainstream sets, once they are retired and sold out, they are sold out.

But how are we to know if something is retired? The "sold out" term at [email protected] doesn't seem to be a good indicator, and it seems the "retired" term isn't applied to all sets to which it should apply.

I believe #7939 Cargo Train was recently available after being sold out for several months. The same thing happened last year with #6858 Catwoman Catcycle City Chase. Those are "mainstream" sets, no?

JamesJT

#10211 is "call to check..." on UK [email protected] at 18:51GMT.

It could be "sold out" or "out of stock" or even "available" in 5 minutes....

hoyatables

msanders said:

They are examples though! The comments were in response to 'I've NEVER seen a set say sold out for several months and then come back'.

Also, I don't really get the term 'mainstream'? Sold in shops other than Lego shops? Popular demand? Appeal to the masses? Research institute was on 'mainstream' media sources, and other ideas (Cuusoo) sets are sold in 'mainstream' retailers. Are modulars and large exclusive sets 'mainstream'?

Anyways, don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing that some of these 'Sold out' sets will reappear like the examples that have been given, just that there have been examples. Clearly, the terms that Lego use are misleading and even when they give 'will ship on X date' may mean completely sold out.

I hear you. I'd say modulars and large exclusive sets are mainstream -- they are available both online and in LEGO stores, and also through other retailers (even if only online). I think Cuusoo sets are also generally mainstream - certainly the ones that hit non-LEGO retailers are. But with something like Research Institute and such a limited supply / overwhelming demand scenario, I don't think it is fair to really use it as a predictor of what to expect in future scenario. (As we say in the legal field "bad facts make bad law.")

I'm not sure what to say about retailer exclusives like Architecture Studio. If they are widely available in LEGO stores as well, I'd say they are also mainstream. But I seem to remember that Architecture Studio had very limited availability, and was really only available at BN. Something like the TRU or Target exclusives are more clearly "mainstream" though note there is a history of wonky performance there too. The Funhouse lingered for months, but older exclusives sometimes disappeared very very quickly.

Continuing with the legal analogies, I think at some point you know a mainstream set when you see it, and the exceptions are usually easy to spot.

FollowsClosely

stevemack said:

I'm curious how many death stars are actually being held by ppl now, I've got 5 personally and won't buy more until it shows a sign of going, how about others?

I purchased a dozen or so three years ago BOGO. I have only 5 left, and I will be avoiding it until I see some clear signs.

CCC

If you remove and ignore anything that doesn't fit a particular model/theory then the model/theory is always correct.

madforLEGO

Brickarmor said:

madforLEGO said:

I say do not count a set out until it shows on [email protected] as 'retired product'

So there's hope? ;-)

Sure, though I doubt that one is coming back (due to the whole PCness around that one). However if I am not mistaken typically there is a retired product tag on most items that are gone for good.

SuperTramp

JamesJT said:

#10211 is "call to check..." on UK [email protected] at 18:51GMT.

It could be "sold out" or "out of stock" or even "available" in 5 minutes....

Sold out again

Purploros

How much time does Orthanc have left?

CCC

I doubt they'll keep making them past the end of the Hobbit sets. They'll keep selling them though, until they are out. I doubt they are a fast seller now.

matticus_bricks

Brickarmor said:

So there's hope? ;-)

They sold Jabba's Palace for $30?! O_O I think I'm going to need some Advil....

ecmo47

^ But I'd like to meet a person that got one at that price!

Pitfall69

matticus_bricks said:

Brickarmor said:

So there's hope? ;-)

They sold Jabba's Palace for $30?! O_O I think I'm going to need some Advil....

ecmo47 said:

^ But I'd like to meet a person that got one at that price!

Yeah, I don't know about that one.

juggles7

R2 in stock at [email protected] USA

wrangler6915

^gone again; click on the detail page and says its out of stock

Farmer_John

msanders said:

As @Hardrada said, it sold out in August and its now December so that is months. Also, (slightly tongue in cheek), the winter village sets go sold out (around December/January) and then come back in stock in November time!

Yep...there are a scant few that come back, like the $20 Research Institute #21110 set or a few of the seasonal sets that typically only sell during a few months out of the year for obvious reasons. But if we jump into some actual numbers (instead of a few random anomalies used to provide false hopes), here's what you have for 2014:

Lego's [email protected] website currently lists the following:
1440 total items (including sets) on their website.
227 are listed by TLG as "sold out."
492 are listed by TLG as "retired product."
98 are listed by TLG as "retiring soon."
That leaves roughly 721 items available for sale (including those that are "out of stock" and those that are "retiring soon.").

According to a quick check of Brickset's database a few minutes ago:
722 items were released in 2014
675 items were released in 2013
689 items were released in 2012
593 items were released in 2011

So, a cursory review of this data as found at [email protected] and Brickset indicates there are slightly less items available from [email protected] than were released in 2014 alone. It should be noted that these numbers likely contain a few errors as they are only as good as Brickset and [email protected] have available. However, any errors are not enough to skew the overwhelming conclusion that TLG essentially turns over their entire offering on a yearly basis (on average) to provide new sets. Those of us who read this thread tend to focus on the few that live longer than average because those tend to be the larger, more profitable sets.

My point is that TLG isn't in the business of looking backward to re-release sets that are "sold out"; they are constantly churning their sets and themes. The research institute is a special case because it is in the Ideas theme and TLG historically struggles to gauge interest in sets from this theme (see also Minecraft). The seasonal sets are...well...seasonal sets. Of course some will pop back up annually.

But the rule (not the exception) is that once a set is "sold out," then it's sold. So those holding out for the TH, GE, AA, HH, etc. to be re-released may have a long and disappointing wait.

JMO...

MugenPower

legoboy1066 said:

TheLoneTensor said:

legoboy1066 said:

Customer Service informed me that HE is now a retired product.

They don't normally do that, and even when they do, they are generally uninformed.

In the past, I have called Customer Service about other products and they have told me that a product is retired and they have been correct.

I called about the SSD earlier in the year and was told it was retired. Then a month or so later, it came back in stock for a bit. Granted, that may be a special case, but I get the feeling they base their responses on site availability and how long it's been since they've seen it available.

timinchicago

Did anyone else happen to notice about a week ago that when you clicked on the "Top Sellers" instead of showing just the top 25 best selling items, it showed EVERYTHING.

Unfortunately I did not get a screen capture but I did notice that the lowest mainstream set was #75020 Jabba's Sail Barge.