Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

FatMatt

The chances of finding HH or TH are quite slim. Not trying to be negative, just realistic. Kudos if you do. I advise that you buy R2 if they have it as it is disappearing quickly from B&M. My guess is most stores will be out of it before Black Friday.

CoraHarrison

FatMatt said:

The chances of finding HH or TH are quite slim. Not trying to be negative, just realistic. Kudos if you do. I advise that you buy R2 if they have it as it is disappearing quickly from B&M. My guess is most stores will be out of it before Black Friday.

Got a few R2's... I don't see the potential in them but maybe that's cause I've never seen a SW movie (Gasp!) It's a weird time of year now as I don't know what will go next Lego has thrown me this year... or if any other exclusives will go before the end of the year. :/

ColoradoBricks

For those in the US, Some B&N still have R2-D2 and if are member you get 10% off. There is also a 20% off coupon this week-end for members, while it excludes LEGO, some were able to make it work.

joel4motion

Plenty of R2's in Watford Lego today if anyone is after one. They have posted out to me before so might be willing if you ask.

madforLEGO

CoraHarrison said:

FatMatt said:

The chances of finding HH or TH are quite slim. Not trying to be negative, just realistic. Kudos if you do. I advise that you buy R2 if they have it as it is disappearing quickly from B&M. My guess is most stores will be out of it before Black Friday.

Got a few R2's... I don't see the potential in them but maybe that's cause I've never seen a SW movie (Gasp!) It's a weird time of year now as I don't know what will go next Lego has thrown me this year... or if any other exclusives will go before the end of the year. :/

How have you not at least accidentally walked into a room with someone watching SW? Or even watched it on a dare or something :-)

I think someone else said it, The Horizon Express may be on its way out, it does make sense though given on when it was released (time has been flying). Also I'm guessing the Winter Village Market is done and only has remaining stocks, and Santa's Workshop will likley be gone by or at around next Christmas.
Here in the US there is the Exclusives ban so if anyone wants one they are likely not dropping in price.
I think the question of if the Millennium Falcon going soon is up as well, but even if it it does go, I'm guessing LEGO will have a new one for the release of Episode 7 in '15
PS likely will be gone sometime next year. Possibly earlier than later depending when LEGO decided to stop making them.

I believe there have been mixed reports of the VW Van's demise. One person who has been pretty good with reporting what stays and what goes says VW Van and DS both have been extended a year until 15.
Someone though recently said a guy they talk to who seems to be in the know says 14 is the date for the Van. If you are not in the US you may find it on sale, in which case I would buy at least one.

brickupdate

Stopped by my LEGO Store today, and they had at least 5-6 R2D2's, I bought an extra one. The (very friendly) employee who helped me hadn't heard anything about R2 disappearing, but said that they can't keep Santa's Workshop on the shelves. Every-time they put a new batch out, they disappear within an hour. Just a heads up on that, I suppose.

littlepuppi

thanks for the advice on too chaps, will pick up 2!

jasonord69a

I got a few sets today. The batch numbers do tell quite a story. Winter market, Santas toyshop and RI were all produced in week 42 (2 weeks ago), horizon express however had a batch number for week 33 last year!

ThirdBuckEye

So are u thinking TLG stopped making HE a while ago? Maybe the WM will make it another year? Nice to see a new batch of RI! Hopefully everyone who wants it can acquire one.

Milne44

I got 5 of the Santa work shop sets #10245 , will it be best to sell at Christmas time or after EOL?

littlepuppi

littlepuppi said:

thanks for the advice on too chaps, will pick up 2!

could not afford 2, got one on backorder from s@h...

enotoga

quote - "I'm not saying it is not worthwhile to many to do this, but I think that sometimes people just think buy the set and then in 6 months poof it magically disappears and you have a crisp new wad of 100's."


You raise some really good points in your post. I feel that those things you mention create a very real moat around this venture. When Ebay first got popular in 1998, I used to walk into thrift shops and buy Stephen King books for $1 and sell them on Ebay for $10. It was like shooting ducks in a bucket and I was willing to do the work. Selling Lego for me, with 16 years of Ebay experience is pretty easy. But for most people it's a serious pain in the *ss as you've stated . One of the best things we have going for us is that most people are lazy. It's a very small percentage of the population who's willing to endure all of the work and risk for a couple hundred bucks per set or less - but I sure am.

Now that we've supposedly reached the days when everybody is onto Lego flipping (I don't believe were anywhere close to that day), I've been watching newly retired sets closely. Fire Brigade is skyrocketing percentage wise. TH and HH are doing the same. I think we're still in very early innings with Lego investing but 2015 will be the real test.

I bet Fire Brigade is over $500 by the end 2015 - it's already solidly over $300 in new unopened condition. I guess that HH and TH will track similarly.

madforLEGO

Milne44 said:

I got 5 of the Santa work shop sets #10245 , will it be best to sell at Christmas time or after EOL?

Dunno if you are foolin around, or serious. Assuming you are serious, I will say that unless Santa's Workshop is out of stock everywhere right now, and stays that way though Christmas (when people would want them) I do not see them going over retail right now as they will likely be out (and available at many places) for at least 2 years (judging on past Winter Village sets).

Legoboy

And those left over beyond Christmas will go for 30% less in the sale, probably.

enotoga

........and on the other hand if you forget about your Santa's Workshop until 2016, you might get $175 per set. Compare to the 2012 Christmas Set with 109 pieces retail $14.95. These are getting $45 - $60 on Ebay. That's a 3x return so my $175 figure is low, especially if you get a 30% discount. You'll need to be very lucky to get that, I think.

wagnerml2

@legoboy - I'm not sure they do the 30% off anymore. At least I dont think they did it on WVM last year. Maybe I'm remembering wrong.

graphite

^ I remember getting a couple cottages 30% off the year before but I didn't see any discounts last year on WVM so I wouldn't expect it this year.

Legoboy

@wagnerml2‌ - I managed a Cottage and Market at 30% off last year. I believe it was in-store only though and possibly just the UK (I don't know). :o)

joel4motion

Likewise on the WVM last year between Xmas and New Years. Managed to get a few at 30% off for myself and a few bricksetters.

Pitfall69

Legoboy said:

@wagnerml2‌ - I managed a Cottage and Market at 30% off last year. I believe it was in-store only though and possibly just the UK (I don't know). :o)

Definitely a UK thing. The WV Cottage was out before the US "No Discount" implementation. I managed to get plenty of them at around $77 USD before the "No Discounts On Exclusives" era began.

Farmer_John

wagnerml2 said:

@legoboy - I'm not sure they do the 30% off anymore. At least I dont think they did it on WVM last year. Maybe I'm remembering wrong.

The Santa's Workshop is tagged by TLG as an Exclusive set. Good luck getting 30% or even 20% off on it. In fact, the only way you'll get a discount on this set is if TLG allows you to get a discount on the Black Friday sale, and even then it will be a max of 10%.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

Legoboy said:

@wagnerml2‌ - I managed a Cottage and Market at 30% off last year. I believe it was in-store only though and possibly just the UK (I don't know). :o)

Definitely a UK thing. The WV Cottage was out before the US "No Discount" implementation. I managed to get plenty of them at around $77 USD before the "No Discounts On Exclusives" era began.

Yeah, was lucky to get a few Cottages for 69.95 USD as they were really trying to get them out of the stores back then.
If in the US, you will not see these discounted (unless LEGO changes its policies) but elsewhere in the world you may.

All I know if for the Pre BF event at LEGO store I'm going to get a pet shop and a Horizon express with the double points being there.

Farmer_John

^Yeah...I'm willing to bet you purchased your Cottages in early 2013 before TLG nixed their discounts a few months later (in the USA anyway).

I hadn't heard that they will be offering double VIP points for the per BF event. Is that official?

FatMatt

Does anyone know if TRU online gift cards can be used at FAO Schwarz?

LegoKip

@Farmer_John‌
Yes, plus the train ornament in a red pouch Huw mentioned on the main page.

Farmer_John

^Well, I guess I'll have to crash the party then... ;-)

madforLEGO

Farmer_John said:

^Yeah...I'm willing to bet you purchased your Cottages in early 2013 before TLG nixed their discounts a few months later (in the USA anyway).

I hadn't heard that they will be offering double VIP points for the per BF event. Is that official?

Oh I did get them before the ban. I think it was right near the time they started banning discounts if I am not mistaken.
As for 2x VIP points on pre BF event:
I thought it was actually documented somewhere, but it is not. But I have heard from multiple sources it is 2x points

vasp

Tower Bridge is OOS on s@h usa. Expected to ship Dec 1. Hope this is not a sign of EOL

Farmer_John

^I expected that one to go after the 2012 Olympics in the UK. It's looooong overdue to go...

Billybrown

vasp said:

Tower Bridge is OOS on s@h usa. Expected to ship Dec 1. Hope this is not a sign of EOL

Predict it will be 'sold out' on S@H (UK) by December 20th 2014 ;-)

SuperTramp

I was thinking more the 18th around 10ish.

luckyruss

^ am or pm?

SuperTramp

Sorry am.

Legoboy

Billybrown said:

vasp said:

Tower Bridge is OOS on s@h usa. Expected to ship Dec 1. Hope this is not a sign of EOL

Predict it will be 'sold out' on S@H (UK) by December 20th 2014 ;-)

I bet it doesn't last that long.

Brickaholic

Yes, the sound of the Hoards can be heard starting to rumble on the borders of Bricksetland :)

Legoboy said:

Billybrown said:

vasp said:

Tower Bridge is OOS on s@h usa. Expected to ship Dec 1. Hope this is not a sign of EOL

Predict it will be 'sold out' on S@H (UK) by December 20th 2014 ;-)

I bet it doesn't last that long.

Billybrown

Brickaholic said:

Yes, the sound of the Hoards can be heard starting to rumble on the borders of Bricksetland :)

Legoboy said:

Billybrown said:

vasp said:

Tower Bridge is OOS on s@h usa. Expected to ship Dec 1. Hope this is not a sign of EOL

Predict it will be 'sold out' on S@H (UK) by December 20th 2014 ;-)

I bet it doesn't last that long.

I was being conservative ;-)
For all those moaning that you missed out, buy now ;-)

vasp

Brickaholic said:

Yes, the sound of the Hoards can be heard starting to rumble on the borders of Bricksetland :)

Legoboy said:

Billybrown said:

vasp said:

Tower Bridge is OOS on s@h usa. Expected to ship Dec 1. Hope this is not a sign of EOL

Predict it will be 'sold out' on S@H (UK) by December 20th 2014 ;-)

I bet it doesn't last that long.

Right now available only on amazon (limit 2) and target (limit 5)

madforLEGO

Ugh, I may be kicking myself for saying this down the road, but they can have at the tower Bridge sets, especially when they are retail in the US.
I'd rather throw my money at Pet Shops and Horizon Express train sets.

Farmer_John

If TLG is EOLing the #10214 Tower Bridge in the UK, then what's that say for the other parts of the world? Tick, tock...

If not, then who knows when it will be gone.

Brickarmor

Is it just me or is Horizon Express very, very "meh"? I can't find it in myself to commit to buying any. But since I bought MMVs instead of Maersks I can concede that I don't know jack about squat. I do know that 2, maybe even 4 HE boxes will fit where 1 TB does.

ecmo47

I'd agree with the "meh" evaluation on the HE. One thing is that it just doesn't seem to be "minifig" scale and this is due to the horizontal windows on the passenger car. Of course, I thought the Taj was was just a big box of white pieces and passed on buying any! I'd buy Arkham's.

Brickarmor

^I might have to by BF, everything else will be OOS! Kidding... I'll buy my Arkhams next year.

TheLoneTensor

Brickarmor said:

Is it just me or is Horizon Express very, very "meh"? I can't find it in myself to commit to buying any. But since I bought MMVs instead of Maersks I can concede that I don't know jack about squat. I do know that 2, maybe even 4 HE boxes will fit where 1 TB does.

This is precisely why I love sticking around the $100 mark - less storage & less risk per transaction. I was impressed with the HE's compact box size from day one. Btw, it's a nice train in person, and has a lot of features most don't, including headlight support, catenary system, intermodal cars and a toilet!

Farmer_John

TheLoneTensor said:

This is precisely why I love sticking around the $100 mark - less storage & less risk per transaction.

I don't have a problem with this approach, but I do try to pick up a few no-brainers that are above the $100 mark. But yeah, much less risk per transaction when at or below the $100 mark!

madforLEGO

I would be surprised to see HE hover at its retail once gone. While it is a somewhat pretty 'vanilla' set, at least when compared to the Emerald Night and Maersk freight train, it still is interesting enough I think for people to want one as part of their train collection, if anything just because it is an orange train. I think what kind of hurts it is the new Passenger train which looks really nice, but I have a feeling HE is going to be one of those that goes and everyone wonders where it went and that they did not get one.
In any case I do not mind rolling the dice at one, or even two, at retail before Christmas. Also I think the other intriguing one to watch is Fairgrounds mixer. As it is a 'carnival' set, and not really a 'line' at this time, will it be around for another year, or will it be gone? Common sense would say it will be around for another year, but at 150 USD I cannot imagine it selling gangbusters unless there is a balloon or hotdog cart with it.

Pitfall69

^You really need (2) HE's to make it look complete. Add Power Functions and you are in for a lot of money.

Diggydoes

Brickarmor said:

Is it just me or is Horizon Express very, very "meh"? I can't find it in myself to commit to buying any.

Isn't this what people said when TH came out? Sure HE is not a modular but i'm sure that any train-enthusiast will want it in his collection!

The new pattern seems to be: the more "meh"a set is the more likely it is it will retire before anybody expect it due to bad sales ;)

Since the rumour is out that there will be a another carnival set i guess it makes sense to put some fairground mixers aside! I've the feeling that it's a slow moving set and it can be EOL'ed way ahead of time!!!

Billybrown

Diggydoes said:

Brickarmor said:

Is it just me or is Horizon Express very, very "meh"? I can't find it in myself to commit to buying any.

Isn't this what people said when TH came out? Sure HE is not a modular but i'm sure that any train-enthusiast will want it in his collection!

The new pattern seems to be: the more "meh"a set is the more likely it is it will retire before anybody expect it due to bad sales ;)

Since the rumour is out that there will be a another carnival set i guess it makes sense to put some fairground mixers aside! I've the feeling that it's a slow moving set and it can be EOL'ed way ahead of time!!!

HE and TH remind me of a past relationship. Didn't see the attraction at the same, but sure as hell miss them when they've gone :-)

prevere

How could anyone possibly put the Mixer aside at that price point? Maybe, and it's a distant maybe, that set becomes valuable if they do a rollercoaster and whole theme park series, year-after-year, like Winter Village.

Diggydoes

prevere said:

How could anyone possibly put the Mixer aside at that price point? Maybe, and it's a distant maybe, that set becomes valuable if they do a rollercoaster and whole theme park series, year-after-year, like Winter Village.

And there you have it,nobody buys the Mixer for resale purpose for the above reason,sales are bad,TLG decides to end production,prices sky rocket due to only low stock of hoarded Mixer sets,another carnival themed sets gets released (matching the Mixers "spirit") and boom,you have Cafe Corner II ;)