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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I love the Tower Bridge set but I just don't see it approaching Eiffel Tower or Taj Mahal numbers. Those sets were discontinued back in 2009 & 2010. I've only been back into Lego since late 2011 but in that short time I think the "scene" has changed. Those older sets hold high value because buying/selling sealed Lego wasn't as common as it is nowadays. It's been said many times in this very thread but the days of newly retired sets hitting $1500+ are done and dusted.

    Just my opinion.
    LegoboyDougout
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited November 2014
    You might be right. I'll be interested to see how the influx of new AFOL affects things. When Taj and Eiffel were available, the thought of buying a Lego set was the farthest thing from my mind. I wasn't even aware that either set existed. That said, the scene has changed. Since I've been into Lego, Fire Brigade is the first large set to retire and it seems to be tracking well.

    Grand Emporium will be a better test because I have a feeling that Grand Emporium sold the MAXIMUM number of sets possible based on the false EOLs that happened. Anybody who wanted to load up had multiple opportunities to do so. It will very interesting to see how GE plays out through 2015.
  • koozkooz Connecticut, USAMember Posts: 158
    Sorry to switch gears a bit, but...

    I've noticed the price on ebay of the exclusive store opening minifigure 3 packs has dropped. Seems like with more stores opening, more "exclusives" are out there making the market flooded, even though they are technically all different. Also, anyone who was collecting all the openings will have a hard time with so many new stores. These things used to go for over $100 if I'm recalling correctly, but now they're sitting at half that.

    Also, the NYCC Bionicle masks (only 1500 made) are sitting at $20-25. Is that because they're crappy bionicle masks? Or are exclusives just taking a hit across the board? I wonder if it had been an exclusive DC minifig, for example, if it would be going for like $100.
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    edited November 2014
    Exclusive DC minifig would be like $500.. I'm going with "crappy bionicle".
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,908
    Just because you don't like Bionicle, doesn't mean it's crappy. Now Galidor, that's a different story...
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 511
    ^^Really! I mean what is this, junior high school?
  • koozkooz Connecticut, USAMember Posts: 158
    It seems by the market price that the world hates Bionicle, lol...
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Thoughts on GotG? I would speculate they stay in stores through Christmas, EOL and clearance in early 2015. That would be a similar pattern to Lone Ranger. Only difference is that GotG didn't bomb...
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited November 2014
    ^That sounds like an awfully short shelf life. Wouldn't they stick around for a longer period of time since they are part of the Super Hero line? The Lone Ranger was it's own theme so it only had a single movie to ride that marketing wave. Unfortunately it was a low tide based on the success of the movie.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Not to argue with myself, but one could look at the Iron Man 3 sets as a better example. Those made it about 12 months after the release of the movie before clearance. Probably not being produced, but they can still be found in stores 18 months after movie release.

    So maybe next summer clearance cycle is more likely.
  • Kevin_HyattKevin_Hyatt UKMember Posts: 778
    When i read that there are so many people buying "exclusives" hoping to make a massive profit on resale it reminds me of the early 90s comic "investing" bubble just before it burst.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    edited November 2014
    TheLoneTensor said:

    I'm finding it difficult to understand why the personal belittling of a contributing, nearly 2-year community member is being allowed to continue.

    I'm going on 2 1/2 years of being belittled in this forum. Is there a statute of limitations ;)

    Regardless of the circumstances, there is no need for name calling in the forum. I personally don't care, but if someone else finds it offensive, then I think it should stop for sure.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    I've cleaned up this thread. Sorry it took so long, but I was not on the forum during the weekend. If you've posted anything negative, consider yourself warned.
    Bumblepantslego007Angel_C
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    The Tower Bridge is a great set, but it is one that I am avoiding stocking up on. I feel as though it has been out too long.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm going on 2 1/2 years of being belittled in this forum. Is there a statute of limitations ;)

    But, but... we love you! :)

    Can I have a red doo... aww, never mind... :)
    Ronyar
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Kevin_Hyatt said:

    When i read that there are so many people buying "exclusives" hoping to make a massive profit on resale it reminds me of the early 90s comic "investing" bubble just before it burst.

    Oh not this again....
    Pitfall69timinchicagominicoopers11
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited November 2014
    Kevin_Hyatt said:

    When i read that there are so many people buying "exclusives" hoping to make a massive profit on resale it reminds me of the early 90s comic "investing" bubble just before it burst.

    Oh not this again....

    Think of it this way: tangible items have essentially two values to them:
    1) the value of the item in it's complete form (e.g. the set)
    2) the value of the item when broken down into its components (e.g. the LEGO pieces)

    When the value of (1) drops to at or below the value of (2), then the holder of said item can choose to break the item into its component parts, and sell them off in that manner

    LEGO parts average around 10c per piece or better. So there is your floor value. Heck, chop it in half if you want. That 2000 piece modular is worth - at worst - $100 in raw pieces if you were just going to sell them away at "wholesale"

    The comparison to comic books or baseball cards is invalid because those items have a raw component value of essentially $0 (paper pulp).

    The only scenario in which a LEGO set could see it's value drop much below the cost paid for it is if the world were to suddenly to stop having any interest in collecting and building with miscellaneous bulk LEGO pieces. I suppose it could happen, but if it does, I'm guessing we all have a lot bigger problems to worry about than losing money on sets stored in our attics or garages.
    xeeeejlego007
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited November 2014
    dougts said:

    Oh not this again....

    Oh not this again.

    ;-)
  • Kevin_HyattKevin_Hyatt UKMember Posts: 778
    cheshirecat said:

    dougts said:

    Oh not this again....

    Oh not this again.

    ;-)
    Oh no, not this again.

    :)
  • LegoManiaccLegoManiacc Member Posts: 116
    Kevin_Hyatt said:

    cheshirecat said:

    dougts said:

    Oh not this again....

    Oh not this again.

    ;-)
    Oh no, not this again.

    :)
    Maroon Red 5, standing by.

    MathBuilder
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @pitfall69 - As the resident counselor of this particular thread you will be happy to know that for most intentional torts (someone directly insulting your...*ahem*...character), that the statute of limitations begins to run after each intentional act, meaning that each intentional act is its own separate tort for which you would perhaps have a cause of action.....in other words, the statute of limitations for you will never run.....so you have that to look forward to :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    ^Oh good. That is why I asked? :)
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 372
    ^and @Pitfall69‌, you have plenty of "character" ;)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,869
    edited November 2014
    "because you are a character does not mean you have character."- Winston Wolf
    timinchicagoPitfall69BrewLegoFanTexasRainstorm26
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Grand Emporium nows says "Call to check product availability " in Europe.

  • TarDomoTarDomo FinlandMember Posts: 515
    Series 1 Microfighters? Most likely the market value won't rise a lot even though they would retire.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    SuperTramp said:

    Grand Emporium nows says "Call to check product availability " in Europe.

    That's like the good old days....when you saw that you knew it was dead.
    bp10030
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    @Dad, is that the case then? i thought it could be making a comeback at some point.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,793
    No, it's deaded.
    BumblepantsDadPitfall69
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ I don't know these days but I'd guess it isn't making a comeback. But sure, sets used to just go to 'call to check product availability' then some days later went to 'sold out'.

    You had very little chance of getting one when at the 'call to check product availability' status unless you hit lucky on a return.

    Unexpected Gathering followed that pattern recently. It's the only one I've seen lately although I've not been watching things closely.

    I'm happy to wait until sets are dead and buried now and buy them off those with gazillions of them when they list them at +10% because they need to raise cash due to them not going 3 x rrp within the first month post retirement!!!


    Kevin_Hyatt
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Regarding Tower Bridge: none for me, thanks. I'll let the UK and Europe have the run of it, and I think it'll do fine there. The interest stateside is lukewarm, at best, and it is not a very good candidate for international shipping. I might have picked some up at the sub-$200 mark it hit many times before this year, but I didn't buy any then (glad I haven't been sitting on them!), and that full RRP will be more productively spent elsewhere.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I have a few Tower Bridges, I do plan to get more with Christmas money, assuming it is still around.

    I suspect it will be like Fire Brigade, it will go up no matter how many of them we buy. :)
    FollowsClosely
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    I'm betting TB surprises everyone. There's something about a set that size - it's like a monument to Lego. I heard somebody say that Americans wouldn't have a strong interest in TB as a subject, but I think all the English speaking peoples of the world will have a much stronger attraction to TB than to Taj or Eiffel. To bad it's such a behemoth - the weight of the parts really stresses the box.
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 372
    Shop at Home USA is showing #9493 X-Wing and #75019 At-TE as both "retiring soon".
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    That's a pretty short life for the AT-TE then.
  • edgarallanpoe14edgarallanpoe14 Member Posts: 18
    BrickDancer said:

    That's a pretty short life for the AT-TE then.

    And not short enough it was. Less said about that wave the better.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    AT-TE is definitely my favorite set in the wave. I'll probably JT the AT-AT, AT-TE, and Republic Gunship just to have single copies as things unfold. This is going to be an interesting holiday season. Can't wait to see what they replace the Mearsk Triple E with, if they make a change there.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BrickDancer said:

    That's a pretty short life for the AT-TE then.

    It is a rehash... of an obscure set...

    It might do ok, I have a few... but I'm not jumping up and down about it... I think the new AT-AT is a better buy, in a year. :)
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^and I also didn't find it to be better than #7675 either, aside from the fact that the other is CW. But it has been on quite a long sale, so might take a while just to get back to RRP post-EOL with all the low cost volume out in the wild.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BrickDancer said:

    ^and I also didn't find it to be better than #7675 either, aside from the fact that the other is CW. But it has been on quite a long sale, so might take a while just to get back to RRP post-EOL with all the low cost volume out in the wild.

    Yep, I found it to be worse in many ways than the prior model... They need to hit a specific price point, but that hurts the design sometimes.

    Look at the new AT-AT... Nice, but nothing special... Make it a $150 model and it could be much better... But they are trying to keep that $100 price point.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I just managed to order a Haunted House for $179 on Amazon, sold by Amazon. They went quick though. Third party seller at $360 is now the cheapest again. I wonder what the chances are that it gets cancelled.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Nice job Basta. You'll probably get it. You should check it over carefully to make sure it's complete. You won't lose much on resale if you describe the open box accurately and completely as an inventory validation/
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    BrickDancer said:

    ^and I also didn't find it to be better than #7675 either, aside from the fact that the other is CW. But it has been on quite a long sale, so might take a while just to get back to RRP post-EOL with all the low cost volume out in the wild.

    Wow...I must have blinked and missed something. All along I thought that #75019 and #7675 were the same set and that it was having a really long run. I'm pretty sure I grabbed one or the other awhile ago; I just don't know which one it was that I grabbed. Not really too excited about either to be honest...
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    LegoFanTexas said:

    BrickDancer said:

    ^and I also didn't find it to be better than #7675 either, aside from the fact that the other is CW. But it has been on quite a long sale, so might take a while just to get back to RRP post-EOL with all the low cost volume out in the wild.

    Look at the new AT-AT... Nice, but nothing special... Make it a $150 model and it could be much better... But they are trying to keep that $100 price point.
    Hmm, I really like the new AT-AT. It's actually a pretty decent display model on it's own. Unfortunately it looks odd with the minifig scale snow speeder. Pairs up much better with micro scale snow speeder from the Hoth Planet set. It's a shame that the final planet wave never made it to the states.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^^zzzz....zzzz....zzzz
    A very long run:)
  • TarDomoTarDomo FinlandMember Posts: 515
    edited November 2014
    Some Lego Star Wars sets showing "Retiring Soon" in Europe. There were even V-Wing Starfighter and Vulture Droid from this year ( a bit surprising?). Others were: Jek 14s Stealt Starfighter, A-Wing, X-Wing, Mandalorian Speeder and AT-TE.
  • ericqqaazzericqqaazz Member Posts: 4
    My friend just received a letter from LEGO today saying that they are not making the Town Hall and Grand Emporium Sets any more. It is an official answer for the retiring question. Therefore, If you don't have one, must buy one asap :)
  • edgarallanpoe14edgarallanpoe14 Member Posts: 18
    ericqqaazz said:

    My friend just received a letter from LEGO today saying that they are not making the Town Hall and Grand Emporium Sets any more. It is an official answer for the retiring question. Therefore, If you don't have one, must buy one asap :)

    Wait this is a thing?

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