Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

enotoga

Prevere - do you really think they would re-do one of the early modulars. I haven't been around long enough to have a perspective on this. From what I can gather, it seems more likely that Lego would release an updated design, before doing a copy of a retired set.

Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original? If so, how ofter have they don this?

dougts

I don't see LEGO re-releasing any modular. Makes no sense, there's plenty of "new" modulars to make. Even if they re-hash an old one, it would be significantly different enough to not impact the aftermarket value of the original

pcirone

enotoga said:

Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original?

Lego Legends

JamesJT

enotoga said:

Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original? If so, how ofter have they don this?

It is rare but it does happen, this January for the race truck.
#8041 = #42041
#8459 = #8464 = #8439
#8431 = #8460 = #8438

pcirone

Legends set Original set

#10000 Guarded Inn (2001) #6067 Guarded Inn (1986)
#10001 Metroliner (2001) #4558 Metroliner (1992)
#10002 Railroad Club Car (2001) #4547 Railroad Club Car (1993)
#10021 U.S.S. Constellation (2003) #398 U.S.S. Constellation (1978)
#10036 Pizza To Go (2002) #6350 Pizza To Go (1994)
#10037 Breezeway Cafe (2002) #6376 Breezeway Café (1990)
#10039 Black Falcon's Fortress (2002) #6074 Black Falcon's Fortress (1986)
#10040 Black Seas Barracuda (2002) #6285 Black Seas Barracuda (1989)
#10041 Main Street (2003) #6390 Main Street (1980)
#10151 Hot Rod (2004) #5541 Blue Fury (1995)

enotoga

That is very interesting. I was unaware of those re-releases. I noticed they were all from 2001-2004. Do you think that could be due to Lego having limited design work available during those years. It's been 10 years since the last one, so I wonder why.

BTW - that Metroliner was released at least 2 more times as the passenger train - same design.

Farmer_John

dougts said:

I don't see LEGO re-releasing any modular. Makes no sense, there's plenty of "new" modulars to make. Even if they re-hash an old one, it would be significantly different enough to not impact the aftermarket value of the original

I could see a modular hospital, a modular cathedral (although they'll never do it), and at the rate the economy is going...a modular slum might be in order too.

enotoga

Hospital, Bank, Jail, Bar, Parking Garage, Taxi Stand, Police Station. I guess if they can do a detective agency, they can do any business

graphite

enotoga said:

BTW - that Metroliner was released at least 2 more times as the passenger train - same design.

With different set numbers? example?

enotoga

The same electric train we keep seeing for the last 15 years. The red one was 7938, I think. They just re-released again in white, this year.

david325

Billybrown said:

stevemack said:

Billybrown said:

stevemack said:

I think r2d2 will go in may :)

Brave shout ;- I'll predict that its the next big set to be 'sold out' @ S&H :-) (UK that is)

Don't worry I've got plenty stashed away anyway from Argos 3 4 2s :)

I thought you might :-). Looks like they are going to be very limited or even non existent for the next 3 for 2.

Next Argos 3 for 2 starts Wednesday...

nkx1

enotoga said:

...Lego has no interest in the secondary market. They have far better things to do than search Ebay, get jealous, and plan a sneak attack. Lego LOVES juggletards - the more the merrier...

Lego could very well have an interest in the secondary market. Many people, presumably including many Lego customers, are of limited means. If a person buys a retired set from a reseller, that could potentially result in that person buying less current product from Lego (directly or indirectly). From Lego's perspective, that may be interpreted as a lost revenue.

Of course, one might also argue that there is little appreciable difference between a reseller that purchased a set from Lego two years ago, versus an end-user purchasing a current/equivalent set from Lego. The revenue to Lego might be similar either way, excluding time value of money. After all, the reseller would not have purchased the set if the aftermarket didn't exist.

graphite

enotoga said:

The same electric train we keep seeing for the last 15 years. The red one was 7938, I think. They just re-released again in white, this year.

There are other passenger trains but none that are the same design as the metroliner.

Pacific493

pcirone said:

enotoga said:

Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original?

Lego Legends

And we all know how well that worked out for them.

Pacific493

Farmer_John said:

dougts said:

I don't see LEGO re-releasing any modular. Makes no sense, there's plenty of "new" modulars to make. Even if they re-hash an old one, it would be significantly different enough to not impact the aftermarket value of the original

I could see a modular hospital, a modular cathedral (although they'll never do it), and at the rate the economy is going...a modular slum might be in order too.

I really want to see a modular liquor store or modular marijuana dispensary.

Farmer_John

^Maybe a special set that can be offered at store openings in Colorado or California.

cloaked7

Farmer_John said:

...and at the rate the economy is going...a modular slum might be in order too.

And, the slum set could come out with some new minifigs, the slumlord and the juggletard. The juggletards would hang out in the slum after losing all of their money on bad LEGO investments. And, there could be one holding a sign "Will work for LEGOS". :-) Then, you could build the Detective Agency across the street for investigating all the crimes in the slum.

Farmer_John

^Ouch...

But to that point, the set could come also with a 7-11 and a bunch of minifigs for the flash mob. Might as well keep it real...

prevere

enotoga said:

Prevere - do you really think they would re-do one of the early modulars. I haven't been around long enough to have a perspective on this. From what I can gather, it seems more likely that Lego would release an updated design, before doing a copy of a retired set.

Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original? If so, how ofter have they don this?

I do see a update version to CC or GG in the next 5 years. It makes sense to allow new AFOLs the ability to add those to their cities. The first 3 modulars are just outside of the regular joe's budget to afford. (And FB will soon be there too.)

matticus_bricks

enotoga said:

Hospital, Bank, Jail, Bar, Parking Garage, Taxi Stand, Police Station. I guess if they can do a detective agency, they can do any business

Not sure if most of those measure up to the appeal of the previous modulars, though I agree in that I can't think of much else they could do. Most every modular so far released were places one would go for pleasure (shopping mall, movie theater, restaurant, etc.), so those are exciting and would appeal to both young and adult audiences. I can't really see trying to sell, for instance, an office building set to kids I guess a Hospital and Police Station/Jail have potential.

I would like to see some modular houses or apartment buildings. Almost every set released so far has to be a business, with an apartment upstairs, but real cities have homes too for people to live in. I think an apartment building or a hotel would be nice.

madforLEGO

There are differences between remaking an original brick for brick and doing another design that is similar.
The Legends line did not sell well, at least as well as LEGO was hoping for.
Pretty sure I recall Metroliners being clearance'd for 50% off at some point and even then they lingered (days before all the speculators), same with main streets too I think.

This has been debated endlessly in this and other threads I believe, but people forget that LEGO constantly evolves, so when Main street and Metroliner and even Black Seas Barracuda were re-released they looked outdated. Not to mention they still were not exactly duplicated (Some hair changes, some pieces no longer manufactured).

Cafe Corner, while expensive now , was retailing for 120 because people were not hugely interested in it back then, never mind look at the parts utilized for it. I wonder if LEGO even makes some of those parts needed anymore.
Plus many claim the design is really poor now, and the building was also empty, like Market Street.
Will we see a set 'like' Cafe Corner? Likely, but I doubt you will see Cafe Corner re-released by LEGO again.

BrickDancer

Jamie Berard has already shut down any speculation on rehashing a Modular for variety of reasons, right here on a Brickset thread even. Doesn't anyone remember this?

Dougout

^I remember

Farmer_John

^^Yeah...I would be surprised if they did a rehash. The modulars aren't Star Wars, so TLG has the creative license to release anything they want. I would still like to see a cathedral (or the like) just to mix it up.

mathew

BrickDancer said:

Jamie Berard has already shut down any speculation on rehashing a Modular for variety of reasons, right here on a Brickset thread even. Doesn't anyone remember this?

Yeah sure. But he isn't in charge of the company. Anything is possible if Lego sees an opportunity.

madforLego said:

Plus many claim the design is really poor now, and the building was also empty, like Market Street.
Will we see a set 'like' Cafe Corner? Likely, but I doubt you will see Cafe Corner re-released by LEGO again.

Who claims the design is "really poor"? I personally think it holds up quite well. It has that classic Lego charm about it. Modern designs like Town Hall for example are rather mundane. Even the Palace Cinema which I quite like lacks the same character of the early modulars. Of course I like Market Street so I'm not your typical Bricksetter.

FollowsClosely

It will never happen:
* Pieces would have to be reintroduced, at least 4 of them.
* It would take a spot in the already packed production schedule.
* The repeat modular would start off with a smaller potential audience as many fans already have the original set.
* Design as evolved (so has the piece selection) and the original sets lack something that is seen in the newer modulars (minus TH)
* ...

NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.

Farmer_John

FollowsClosely said:

* Design as evolved (so has the piece selection) and the original sets lack something that is seen in the newer modulars (minus TH)
* ...

NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.

I agree that a rehash isn't going to happen, but am curious about your TH comment. Can you elaborate?

Pitfall69

FollowsClosely said:

It will never happen:
* Pieces would have to be reintroduced, at least 4 of them.
* It would take a spot in the already packed production schedule.
* The repeat modular would start off with a smaller potential audience as many fans already have the original set.
* Design as evolved (so has the piece selection) and the original sets lack something that is seen in the newer modulars (minus TH)
* ...

NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.

Most of the "Legends" didn't sell that well from what I remember. I didn't buy the re release of Main Street because it wasn't really the same as the original. Many of the Legends sets used different parts because the molds for those parts were no longer available.

Releasing rehashes of Cafe Corner and Green Grocer will not happen. Anything is possible, but I think Lego has learned from their earlier mistakes and I don't see it ever happening.

edgarallanpoe14

As someone who missed a lot of great sets during their dark ages, I live in hope of stuff being rehashed, but I doubt *any* large, collectible set is ever going to get a brick-for-brick reissue. It would be tempting though, surely, from the perspective of a Lego exec. The Cafe Corner's lack of an interior dates it considerably, so I wouldn't be inclined to reissue that, but the design and modelling work on the modular sets fully graduated with the Green Grocer, which could be released today and not look at all out of place. And you could re-release it in a limited run of, say, 30,000 at double the original RRP and it'd sell out in days.

CCC

margot said:

CCC said:

I also don't see that there is any difference if they are bought for personal profit or charity. Breaking limits for charity is just as bad as breaking limits for reselling. Circumventing limits to pass on sets to BL members at cost is also just as bad as circumventing limits for personal profit.

How so?

Because breaking limits is breaking limits, no matter what the intention.

Dad

^ Period.

wagnerml2

I believe the limits issues were completely hashed out in the "Circumventing Limits" war of 2014.

http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/7043/the-community-perspective-on-reselling#latest

FollowsClosely

Farmer_John said:

...
I agree that a rehash isn't going to happen, but am curious about your TH comment. Can you elaborate?

All I was trying to say is that I feel the town hall was a step back in the progression of the modular line. But Jamie can't design every set for Lego now can he? It would be interesting to see Lego rerelease a modified TH as Emits apartment EA:) Na, it wouldn't.

Bumblepants

FollowsClosely said:

Farmer_John said:

...
I agree that a rehash isn't going to happen, but am curious about your TH comment. Can you elaborate?

All I was trying to say is that I feel the town hall was a step back in the progression of the modular line. But Jamie can't design every set for Lego now can he? It would be interesting to see Lego rerelease a modified TH as Emits apartment EA:) Na, it wouldn't.

I can see where the TH criticism comes from but after building it myself recently I am extremely glad I bought one. It looks really impressive alongside the others and while I am not the biggest fan of the elevator I appreciate that it isn't another staircase. It also has a lot more depth when compared to the other modulars. It doesn't really come across in photos but the interior is much bigger as well as being taller.

Farmer_John

FollowsClosely said:

All I was trying to say is that I feel the town hall was a step back in the progression of the modular line. But Jamie can't design every set for Lego now can he? It would be interesting to see Lego rerelease a modified TH as Emits apartment EA:) Na, it wouldn't.

I haven't built mine yet and was just curious. I plan to build the TH this Christmas (along with about 50 other sets that I haven't built yet).

Dougout

Two things:

1.) Yes, TH was harshly criticized, a bit unfairly IMO.
2.) No one needs to leave the forum. This is a safe place!!

Renny

So trying to get back on topic :) Do you see a point in holding onto #10227 UCS B-Wing or just call it a day and sell now? I purchased a few when they were 50% off and it seems that a year later after retirement it is finally selling at around retail. At such a slow rate of increase, does it make sense to wait?

prevere

If you're willing to wait 2 years or so for it to gain $50-$100 from today's prices, I think that's what you're looking at.

Farmer_John

^The release of the new B-Wing #75050 didn't help much. If you are going to sell it, Christmas season would be the best time IMO.

Renny

Thanks, I think that is what I will do. Seems like this set is following in Obi Wan's Jedi Starfighter's footsteps.

Legoboy

#10215 seemed small and insignificant, much like the #10026 and I wonder if its size contributed towards it downfall. #10227 on the other hand is a decently sized ship and I think might do better afterall. Look what finally happened to #10026. I'd leave it another year if they were mine.

cloaked7

Renny said:

So trying to get back on topic :) Do you see a point in holding onto #10227 UCS B-Wing or just call it a day and sell now? I purchased a few when they were 50% off and it seems that a year later after retirement it is finally selling at around retail. At such a slow rate of increase, does it make sense to wait?

My plan is to sell mine this Christmas.

enotoga

How many Tower Bridge copies are you holding? I bought 6 copies over the past 18 months. I'd probably buy a few more, but they're heavy and take up a lot of space

Billybrown

enotoga said:

How many Tower Bridge copies are you holding? I bought 6 copies over the past 18 months. I'd probably buy a few more, but they're heavy and take up a lot of space

I'm up to 51 now, so nobody else should buy these now as there will be a huge glut of them on the secondary market ;-)

stevemack

Billybrown said:

enotoga said:

How many Tower Bridge copies are you holding? I bought 6 copies over the past 18 months. I'd probably buy a few more, but they're heavy and take up a lot of space

I'm up to 51 now, so nobody else should buy these now as there will be a huge glut of them on the secondary market ;-)

Very true... I'm around 30! Massively overstocked by a lot of people I think hoping it would have gone last year, should see returns but nothing like the Taj everyone hopes for :(

Legoboy

Just when I thought it was safe to rejoin the thread. My mistake.

enotoga

Billybrown said:

enotoga said:

How many Tower Bridge copies are you holding? I bought 6 copies over the past 18 months. I'd probably buy a few more, but they're heavy and take up a lot of space

I'm up to 51 now, so nobody else should buy these now as there will be a huge glut of them on the secondary market ;-)

Even with a big stash like 30-50 sets, is it safe to say that you'd never offer more than 1 set for a sale at a given point in time? I've been watching both Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium and the numbers look like this.

With search terms: Fire Brigade Lego New - the total number of sets available is about 81. This is down from 105 a year ago.

Grand Emporium is at about 107. I would imagine that in a year it might be down to about 80 as well.

The number of sets a given person has effects the length of time it takes that set to achieve desired pricing, but the total number of sets available at a given point in time is a more powerful impact on price.

The length of time TB has been available makes it natural that it will take longer to burn through early secondary inventory, but I think it definitely catches up with Taj and Eiffel over time. It's expensive and somewhat difficult to pull the trigger on - even more so than Town Hall was.

Renny

I love the Tower Bridge set but I just don't see it approaching Eiffel Tower or Taj Mahal numbers. Those sets were discontinued back in 2009 & 2010. I've only been back into Lego since late 2011 but in that short time I think the "scene" has changed. Those older sets hold high value because buying/selling sealed Lego wasn't as common as it is nowadays. It's been said many times in this very thread but the days of newly retired sets hitting $1500+ are done and dusted.

Just my opinion.

enotoga

You might be right. I'll be interested to see how the influx of new AFOL affects things. When Taj and Eiffel were available, the thought of buying a Lego set was the farthest thing from my mind. I wasn't even aware that either set existed. That said, the scene has changed. Since I've been into Lego, Fire Brigade is the first large set to retire and it seems to be tracking well.

Grand Emporium will be a better test because I have a feeling that Grand Emporium sold the MAXIMUM number of sets possible based on the false EOLs that happened. Anybody who wanted to load up had multiple opportunities to do so. It will very interesting to see how GE plays out through 2015.

kooz

Sorry to switch gears a bit, but...

I've noticed the price on ebay of the exclusive store opening minifigure 3 packs has dropped. Seems like with more stores opening, more "exclusives" are out there making the market flooded, even though they are technically all different. Also, anyone who was collecting all the openings will have a hard time with so many new stores. These things used to go for over $100 if I'm recalling correctly, but now they're sitting at half that.

Also, the NYCC Bionicle masks (only 1500 made) are sitting at $20-25. Is that because they're crappy bionicle masks? Or are exclusives just taking a hit across the board? I wonder if it had been an exclusive DC minifig, for example, if it would be going for like $100.