Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

prevere

I'm still bewildered by sets like the Tumbler, that have an out of stock date so far in the future, TLG can't do anything but say sorry, "we'll have some next year". That set is tailor-made for Xmas, and even TLG will miss out on their own ingenuity.

prevere

... and given this state of hyper-buying on exclusives, I damn well plan on buying UCS Slave I on day 1, or else I might miss out for MONTHS.

CCC

prevere said:

I'm still bewildered by sets like the Tumbler, that have an out of stock date so far in the future, TLG can't do anything but say sorry, "we'll have some next year". That set is tailor-made for Xmas, and even TLG will miss out on their own ingenuity.

They could do something else - remove it from the (online) catalogue if it is not going to be available for a few months. What is the point of tempting someone at Christmas, and not letting them buy it / have it bought for them? They might as well remove temptation and let them choose something else.

Of course, the alternative is to have a decent stock ready at the time of launch,

mountebank

Or they could be happy having warehouses and shops emptied of that product with a decent expectation that when they make more those will sell too.

I doubt that the main goal of TLG is to satisfy the AFOL market.

pumperx

10211 GE is currently available at Walmart. If anyone is interested.

pcirone

Interesting article..

brickset.com/article/454

cloaked7

prevere said:

I'm still bewildered by sets like the Tumbler, that have an out of stock date so far in the future, TLG can't do anything but say sorry, "we'll have some next year". That set is tailor-made for Xmas, and even TLG will miss out on their own ingenuity.

In the U.S. it is my understanding that the Tumbler is only being made in limited quantities due to production limitations. LEGO is shipping them only to LEGO stores in an attempt to try and limit the number of them that might be bought for resell (at a marked up price). LEGO thinks they can control that better in the store where they will know who is buying the set and remember multiple buyers.

theLEGOman

pcirone said:

Interesting article..

brickset.com/article/454

If only they knew.
By iabstract in United States, 30 Oct 2009 18:22

Just got the email for this. Glad I ordered mine some time back. The email also said you can get it with free shipping while it's available, which is a decent deal.

I'll be curious to see how much this one eventually goes for on eBay and Bricklink. Hard to see it having the appreciation of the last Falcon (2004 had an MSRP of $100, but goes for $200-$400 on eBay) given how expensive this one already is.

prevere

pcirone said:

Interesting article..

brickset.com/article/454

The comments are priceless from this article. Thanks for digging it up.

#1
By goldfish in United Kingdom, 31 Oct 2009 05:27

I doubt these are available at £100 when they are £349 from Lego.

On a related point about deleted Lego sets, I have noticed there seems to be a whole cottage industry on ebay of deleted and older lego sets being sold at increased prices. I don't have a problem with this, as I suppose it is people giving the market what they want. Does anybody have any thoughts on this? I have a lot of sealed lego sets in my collection, and it makes me wonder if I should stick a lot of them in the loft for 5 years and watch them appreciate at a greater rate than my actual home. lol.

Does seem luck of the draw a bit on how the value of certain sets appreciate though. For instance, Cloud City has gone ballistic if you want a MISB set, yet some of the smaller sets, like the landspeeder etc, you can still get for not much more than the original price. Same with Harry Potter, where sets like the Castles, and the Shrieking Shack are very expensive and routinely go for over £150 if they come up mint.


#2
By keithkram in United Kingdom, 31 Oct 2009 07:32

Supply and Demand, Lego Sets always have a short shelf life, so once they are discontinued the price will go up if people still want them. And yes I think its down to the minifigs in the Star Wars sets, I collect Minifigs and have had to pay a lot of money for the older rarer ones.

I dont think the UCS MF will go up in price as its overpriced for the standard parts and not so rare minifigs. But I may be wrong and they may go up in price, but if people can not afford £350 now to buy one, I doubt they will pay much more in the future. Now do I buy a couple and put them in storage just in case I am wrong.

btw, I tried to order one and you dont get free shipping in the UK?

TarDomo

Snowman and Reindeer sold out at Lego.shop in Europe already. Seasonal stuff is going fastly so you need to get them always immediately after their release... at least here in Europe

CCC

^ Yes, it seems very embarrassing that lego has Christmas products in it's online store that are out of stock. Hopefully they rectify the situation in the run up to Christmas. If they cannot, they should remove them.

It looks like people on ebay are starting to buy them at £13-14 each inc postage.

With the toy factory set as the freebie, resellers that bought £50 worth of reindeer / snowman will do nicely out of those while lego doesn't restock them.

edgarallanpoe14

"If I had more space at home I'd buy a couple of the last UCS MFs and store them MISB somewhere safe with a view to selling them one day. Same with the Death Star which I think is a 100% guaranteed future classic - definitely my favourite set, and one to make the minifig collectors excited as well due to the huge number of figures."

Well you win some you lose some.

"If they do another UCE, the Slave I would be a great model - especially if they do the wings correct. A model of Executor would be great but not if its on the same scale as the ISD - it would end up having around 20,000 pieces."

Might want to keep going with that piece estimate.

prevere

CCC said:

^ Yes, it seems very embarrassing that lego has Christmas products in it's online store that are out of stock. Hopefully they rectify the situation in the run up to Christmas. If they cannot, they should remove them.

It looks like people on ebay are starting to buy them at £13-14 each inc postage.

With the toy factory set as the freebie, resellers that bought £50 worth of reindeer / snowman will do nicely out of those while lego doesn't restock them.

I remember the mini Xmas train sold out in a week, that might be the record for Xmas sets. (Only to reappear at Target a year+ later, and briefly of course). Honestly, they could do a different mini Xmas train every year and it would still sell extremely well.

bp10030

#630 Brick Separator OOS at [email protected] europe!!!!

pcirone

bp10030 said:

#630 Brick Separator OOS at [email protected] europe!!!!

Uh oh.. in for 99 at SAH USA

pcirone

cloaked7 said:

prevere said:

I'm still bewildered by sets like the Tumbler, that have an out of stock date so far in the future, TLG can't do anything but say sorry, "we'll have some next year". That set is tailor-made for Xmas, and even TLG will miss out on their own ingenuity.

In the U.S. it is my understanding that the Tumbler is only being made in limited quantities due to production limitations. LEGO is shipping them only to LEGO stores in an attempt to try and limit the number of them that might be bought for resell (at a marked up price). LEGO thinks they can control that better in the store where they will know who is buying the set and remember multiple buyers.

I don't know.. I was in my local store yesterday and picked up my limit of 1 tumbler and one research institute. At checkout, I asked the clerk if my limit of one was per day or..? He said it is per day and I could come back every day and buy one of each with no issues as long as they continued to have stock.

graphite

^ Just another inconsistency with the LEGO stores. Just like some won't sell PAB boxes anymore and some still do.

legofanfromleeds

I managed to pick up two #21110 ri's today...one to keep and one to fund my hobby..looks like i could nearly double my outlay if i was to list on uk ebay but just wondered if i should wait till closer to xmas..any thoughts anyone ?

Sethro3

The problem is for the people (like me) who don't have LEGO stores near them so cannot get the research institute. I understand having them available in stores instead of online since they sell out quicker online, but that limits the people who can buy one. I tried ordering both that and the Exo-Suit on day ONE! Both sold out immediately. The Exo-suit sat in my order status for 2 months while it said backordered, and then one day they said not going to make anymore. touch luck...

pharmjod

I don't have a LEGO store near me and I was able to successfully place a 2 orders each containing a RI on day one. Once after midnight and again later in the morning. It lingered for a bit. I agree that LEGO should have probably bumped the production up of that set though.

madforLEGO

Sethro3 said:

The problem is for the people (like me) who don't have LEGO stores near them so cannot get the research institute. I understand having them available in stores instead of online since they sell out quicker online, but that limits the people who can buy one. I tried ordering both that and the Exo-Suit on day ONE! Both sold out immediately. The Exo-suit sat in my order status for 2 months while it said backordered, and then one day they said not going to make anymore. touch luck...

If you have not already done so, I suggest that you check out the Research institute thread as there were a few people there that managed to get more than one and were asking if bricksetters needed one. You can try there in case some stores are still getting them (also helps if you tell them where you are located) http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/15210/21110-research-institute

I'm in the US and the store by me had them in stock for two Tuesdays back to back, but limited them to one per person each of those days. Enough for me to get one for myself and another for my GF as her Christmas present.

TarDomo

May be retiring in the end of this year:
Millenium Falcon #7965
UCS R2-D2 #10225
and does someone know about the Death Star? Will it be available till the new version (if there´s coming someday a new version) or will it retire soon? It´s been available since 2008.

nkx1

^source of information?

enotoga

My local store will let you buy 1 Tumbler per day. I think Lego is just up against some production limitations and decided to use the Tumbler as a way to drive traffic into the stores. I'm guessing that Lego couldn't care less about the secondary market and I doubt they make any strategic decisions with the secondary market in mind. We are of no importance to them, other than being an interesting side effect of their success. To Lego, secondary market sellers are primary market buyers - if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

LegoFanTexas

Shockingly enough, #7965 isn't on any retirement list that I've seen...

It should be, it has been out long enough, but who knows...

No idea on the other two, those no longer show up on the lists that I see...

madforLEGO

Again, DS likely around for another year. I think if it was not going to be out for another year the speculators likely would have run out the stocks of it by now.

prevere

DS will perform like FB once it's retired.

Bumblepants

Surely a new Falcon will be debuting next winter

juggles7

enotoga said:

I'm guessing that Lego couldn't care less about the secondary market and I doubt they make any strategic decisions with the secondary market in mind. We are of no importance to them, other than being an interesting side effect of their success. To Lego, secondary market sellers are primary market buyers - if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Your guess is wrong. You don't know what you're talking about. They've banned many a purchaser from Shop at Home simply for buying too much.

mathew

#7965 has been out of stock since the beginning of October on UK [email protected] My guess is that it's near the end but Lego has probably got enough stock to make it through the shopping season. I have two to sell and I was hoping that we would get a teaser trailer this Christmas for the new movie. That would really boost sales.

piratemania7

Any idea what the remaining stock on Kingdoms Joust might look like?

juggles7

Recall that #7965 was clearanced by Target stores at 30-50% off. I might mention that drone footage appeared on the net recently that showed a Falcon supposedly/probably being used for filming in the 2015 Star Wars movie. Seems the Falcon will be shown in the film. I expect there will be a slightly different/updated version, in a box with new artwork. I wouldn't go crazy accumulating those, if I were you. I expect there will be a short window of opportunity for resellers in between the retirement of the #7965 and the release of a new Falcon. I think their value on the secondary market will be hurt by the release of a new, nearly-identical item.

margot

CCC said:

I also don't see that there is any difference if they are bought for personal profit or charity. Breaking limits for charity is just as bad as breaking limits for reselling. Circumventing limits to pass on sets to BL members at cost is also just as bad as circumventing limits for personal profit.

How so?

goshe7

margot said:

How so?

Limits are a black and white rule. It is very clear when you are violating the rule. Otherwise, you get some gray definition of what is "right". When I have pushed on this issue, it is most definitely a gray area subject to emotion/rationalization/opinions.

mathew

juggles7 said:

Recall that #7965 was clearanced by Target stores at 30-50% off. I might mention that drone footage appeared on the net recently that showed a Falcon supposedly/probably being used for filming in the 2015 Star Wars movie. Seems the Falcon will be shown in the film. I expect there will be a slightly different/updated version, in a box with new artwork. I wouldn't go crazy accumulating those, if I were you. I expect there will be a short window of opportunity for resellers in between the retirement of the #7965 and the release of a new Falcon. I think their value on the secondary market will be hurt by the release of a new, nearly-identical item.

Right. I picked up two of them on clearance. At 50% I don't think I can lose. But consider that the new films will be more reminiscent of the original trilogy so it won't hurt that it's from that era.

TarDomo

nkx1 said:

^source of information?

UCS models have been usually available for 2-3 years. R2-D2 has been available since 2012. Millennium Falcon and the SSD have been available since 2011. SSD retired already, so falcon might follow it in the end of year or possibly even before. I know, Falcon isn't USC but a big set anyway.

Billybrown

TarDomo said:

nkx1 said:

^source of information?

UCS models have been usually available for 2-3 years. R2-D2 has been available since 2012. Millennium Falcon and the SSD have been available since 2011. SSD retired already, so falcon might follow it in the end of year or possibly even before. I know, Falcon isn't USC but a big set anyway.

The time frames are becoming less reliable now though. There is no fixed rule with lego and this has been discussed before. In saying that - personally I think you are correct with your predictions ;-)

stevemack

I think r2d2 will go in may :)

Billybrown

stevemack said:

I think r2d2 will go in may :)

Brave shout ;- I'll predict that its the next big set to be 'sold out' @ S&H :-) (UK that is)

cloaked7

juggles7 said:

enotoga said:

I'm guessing that Lego couldn't care less about the secondary market and I doubt they make any strategic decisions with the secondary market in mind. We are of no importance to them, other than being an interesting side effect of their success. To Lego, secondary market sellers are primary market buyers - if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Your guess is wrong. You don't know what you're talking about. They've banned many a purchaser from Shop at Home simply for buying too much.

Yes, LEGO cares about reselling. Specifically when a person, or group, buys up sets (LTD Ed 4x4) that were supposed to be limited to 1 per person, per household, etc. Only to see the set immediately on eBay going for double or triple RRP. It makes LEGO look bad. And, I believe at its core LEGO doesn't like anyone making what they consider excessive profits off of their product and depriving Little Timmy from a LEGO set he so greatly wants.

But, LEGO brings a lot of it on themselves. Primarily through production limits and the retiring of sets. Two flaws (if 'flaw' isn't too excessive a word) in their business model. It is very interesting, because they know that a lot of the modular and UCS sets become collectible (and soar in price and feed reselling) after they are retired. So, what have they changed to try and combat that? Extend the life of many of them. But, that causes production issues, because they have so many current sets and their product is in demand at an all time high (or so it seems). And, it hurts new set sells. Most people are only going to spend so much $$ on LEGOS. And, modulars and UCS sets are pricey. Joe consumer is probably thinking "On NO!!! Yet another expensive set that I need to buy in order to maintain having all of the theme!" (So, many of us deal with that issue by buying 2-3 of a set, saving the extras for reselling later at a great price when the set eventually retires.) And, LEGO is also trying to combat the above issues by limiting discounts and sales. It is a complex problem with many moving parts. And, you're dealing with a very fickle consumer base. Just as hot as LEGO is now it can become a bane if parents tire of spending lots of $$ on expensive LEGOS sets and buying a lot of sets on top of the high price. Doesn't Timmy have enough LEGOS at some point?

pcirone

cloaked7 said:

Doesn't Timmy have enough LEGOS at some point?

Perhaps, but every day a new Timmy is born and an old Timothy awakens.

CircleK

What the hell is a juggletard?

enotoga

2015 - THE YEAR OF THE MODULAR SET

After the Detective Agency is released in January there will be a renewed interest in the Modular series. It will be followed in April/May by another very cool modular - either a bank or hospital - which will continue the momentum.

Summer 2015 is when you're going to see Fire Brigade push into $400+ range and Grand Emporium $300+

Legoboy

Billybrown said:

stevemack said:

I think r2d2 will go in may :)

Brave shout ;- I'll predict that its the next big set to be 'sold out' @ S&H :-) (UK that is)

I'll do more than predict. ;o)

Dad

^ I remember buying a Maersk train once after reading a similar comment. So very glad I did too.

Legoboy

^^^ Just one? ;o)

stevemack

Billybrown said:

stevemack said:

I think r2d2 will go in may :)

Brave shout ;- I'll predict that its the next big set to be 'sold out' @ S&H :-) (UK that is)

Don't worry I've got plenty stashed away anyway from Argos 3 4 2s :)

Dad

Legoboy said:

^^^ Just one? ;o)

Now now!!......You KNOW I appreciated that. I am wise enough to know who to listen to around this neck of the woods my friend and it certainly isn't the ones who do all the shouting..

prevere

Definitely looking forward to the Detective Agency. However, I think what will rekindle "modular momentum" is a re-do on Green Grocer or Cafe Corner.

Billybrown

stevemack said:

Billybrown said:

stevemack said:

I think r2d2 will go in may :)

Brave shout ;- I'll predict that its the next big set to be 'sold out' @ S&H :-) (UK that is)

Don't worry I've got plenty stashed away anyway from Argos 3 4 2s :)

I thought you might :-). Looks like they are going to be very limited or even non existent for the next 3 for 2.