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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    edited October 2014
    nkx1 said:

    ^Ha, good point! Nothing spectacular, really- multiples of yellow cargo train, 41999, Unimog, Helms Deep, etc. I've unfortunately sold all of the most profitable stuff. AA is almost certain to outperform anything I have in inventory currently. Now that you mention it, maybe I should unload all this stuff now; I've just been too lazy!

    The point I was trying to make was that most of us have been guilty of selling sets too early to make way for the next ones because we needed to release cash or create space.
    And in doing so we've just created ourselves a whole load of work as we've watched the sets we've released soar in value. We feel that we can't miss out on a 'sure winner' but if we are stacked to the brim with winners already then why bother. When all said and done it's just another box with different artwork and contents.
    Sure, we need to keep going, but the more different sets you purchase the more chance that you're going to pick a dud. Unless you've unlimited cash / space the bigger you pile in the sooner you have to offload if you want to go again on the next set.
    If you believe AA will out perform anything you have in your current inventory then you need to get shifting sets now. It's easy to sell the profitable sets, it's the others where the work is.
    My strategy has changed now, I'm buying less and holding longer and not getting involved in selling the first 12 months post eol. Obviously there are exceptions.

    I only bought 4 SSD's because if I'd have bought 15 or more I'd have had to start selling at minimum profit because I can't tie that much cash or space up for 3+ years and can't see the point of taking the risk shipping such an expensive set for say £75 profit. Sure, profit is profit but there's better sets to quick flip. But I'm loaded up on FB, HH, and WVC. The WVC I've only had 2 months yet there is 100% clear profit in them and I have lots so it would be foolish not to sell half of them. And if that profit increases to nearer 150% as Christmas draws closer then I'll sell most of them. Yet FB and HH I'll just watch the market. I'm trying to say that I won't be flipping HH at minimum profit to buy AA's.

    Unimog isn't doing that well. I've always bought 10 of the Technic Flagship sets, 8275, 8043, and 8110. But at present I've got 1 x 8043 and 10 x 8110. History suggests that I sold too early on the other 2 sets to make way for the next ones whereas with hindsight I should have just held my 8275's and saved myself a whole load of work. But of course I'd have been gutted had I not bought any 8043's as I've sold some at 200% profit. But as time goes on and more people are at this game it gets harder as we all know and that's why Unimog won't perform like the others.

    We all play the game how it suits us but I think sometimes we've got to let what we perceive as a sure winner pass us by as it may be better sitting on what we already have for another 12 months. Good luck!



    nkx1
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    stevemack said:

    I bought all my #79111 for about £35 and now selling them at RRP, that's over 100% return for me so I'm quite happy with it so far!

    Who sold them £35? the cheapest i i saw them go for was £45.

    I think i have around 18 left. I sold around 5 for retail a few months back just to free up some cash but for the time being im hanging on till they hit around the £120 mark.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    edited October 2014
    ^ argos with special discount though :)
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    ^^ i completely agree, i have a fair few unimogs, all bought for £100 at the most so ill never lose money on them but profit isnt as expected in comparison to past years as you say!

    My ssd's are all stored now for the long term! Tied up about £5k but should be worth it in a few years!
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    I only manged to pick up 6 SSD's, i honestly don't think though you will need to wait a few years for them to hit there peak. its not going to ever hit the MF money.

    Soon has they are hitting £600 - £700 mine are getting sold.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    edited October 2014
    I guess I just look at LEGO and compare it to other type of investments. An approximately 45% return on your initial investment is considered better than very good in just about any investment, especially in a year or less. There will always be risk and likely work involved. That said, I haven't sold any of the 10 I have.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014
    If someone was starting to invest in Lego today, with Zero current inventory, I would recommend they buy Pet Shop exclusively until they reach 10 sets, then do the same thing with Tower Bridge, then the same with Palace Cinema, then PR. This assumes the investor is comfortable buying just a few sets each month.

    Agree/Disagree?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,545
    edited October 2014
    ^I wouldn't buy PR this soon. It isn't even a year old yet. I also tend to have a pretty fluid buying model. Granted that I am just selling a bit on the side to fund my addiction but I have always done well be having a good price of entry. I made a ton off of Harry Potter because I was able to snag a number of good sets at 50-80% off. Those opportunities are getting harder and harder to come by, but I think leaving room for flexibility in your investment plan can go a long way over just 'I need N of X'
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014

    ^I wouldn't buy PR this soon. It isn't even a year old yet. '

    I agree it's early for PR, but I'm using the assumption that the hypothetical investor can only buy about 3 sets a month, so they won't get to PR until the end of 2015, but I agree with you that now is early for PR.


  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    enotoga said:

    ^I wouldn't buy PR this soon. It isn't even a year old yet. '

    I agree it's early for PR, but I'm using the assumption that the hypothetical investor can only buy about 3 sets a month, so they won't get to PR until the end of 2015, but I agree with you that now is early for PR.


    Your hypothetical invester sure needs to hope that TB is still around until April next year as he isn't going to start buying them until February? Tell him not to hold his breath.

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    stevemack said:

    I bought all my #79111 for about £35 and now selling them at RRP, that's over 100% return for me so I'm quite happy with it so far!

    I also paid £35, however its an unusual one for me as normally I'd be happt to sell at RRP, however I've been holding back as I think there is lot more reselling potential

  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    ^True enough, I needed the funds though hence a few items have had to go... I'll settle on 100% :)
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ Sure, but that's 100% gross profit. Surely you've got your taxes and all other associated business costs to come off that??
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Dad said:

    enotoga said:

    ^I wouldn't buy PR this soon. It isn't even a year old yet. '

    I agree it's early for PR, but I'm using the assumption that the hypothetical investor can only buy about 3 sets a month, so they won't get to PR until the end of 2015, but I agree with you that now is early for PR.


    Your hypothetical invester sure needs to hope that TB is still around until April next year as he isn't going to start buying them until February? Tell him not to hold his breath.

    I agree with you, but with the way things have been going with the modular series I'm not counting on PS being available in April 2015 either. I would say the probability is about equal for both.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Here's a real life conundrum - I stopped at my local Lego store today and bought a Tumbler and an Exo-Suit. So currently I own a grand total of 1 Tumbler and 1 Exo-Suit. I don't think I can purchase another Tumbler. I might be able to purchase a few more Exo-Suits.

    So what is the play with these? Hold or Sell. There isn't much upside on Ebay currently so I'm leaning toward stashing them away for a few years. What are your predictions?

    Why are they only offering these through the store - trying to drive traffic?

  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    Dad said:

    ^ Sure, but that's 100% gross profit. Surely you've got your taxes and all other associated business costs to come off that??

    Gross profits easier to state! There's tax obviously but no business costs as it's all from home!
    Zathras
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    stevemack said:

    Dad said:

    ^ Sure, but that's 100% gross profit. Surely you've got your taxes and all other associated business costs to come off that??

    Gross profits easier to state! There's tax obviously but no business costs as it's all from home!
    100% gross is nice :-) There are still business costs even from home though?

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014

    stevemack said:

    Dad said:

    ^ Sure, but that's 100% gross profit. Surely you've got your taxes and all other associated business costs to come off that??

    Gross profits easier to state! There's tax obviously but no business costs as it's all from home!
    100% gross is nice :-) There are still business costs even from home though?

    That's the beauty of a home based business, the business costs are all soft-dollars that disappear whenever you decide they do. The only soft-dollar expense that ever becomes meaningful is "time".
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    enotoga said:

    Here's a real life conundrum - I stopped at my local Lego store today and bought a Tumbler and an Exo-Suit. So currently I own a grand total of 1 Tumbler and 1 Exo-Suit. I don't think I can purchase another Tumbler. I might be able to purchase a few more Exo-Suits.

    So what is the play with these? Hold or Sell. There isn't much upside on Ebay currently so I'm leaning toward stashing them away for a few years. What are your predictions?

    Why are they only offering these through the store - trying to drive traffic?

    Why on earth would you tie that money up in a Tumbler for some years? Seriously, I don't understand that. If you'd said that you were going to hold it until Christmas and see what the market is like then and if you don't sell it then you'll either build it over Christmas or return to store then sure, I could understand that. But I don't understand you considering putting it away for a few years. And never will.

    stevemack said:

    Dad said:

    ^ Sure, but that's 100% gross profit. Surely you've got your taxes and all other associated business costs to come off that??

    Gross profits easier to state! There's tax obviously but no business costs as it's all from home!
    So when you file your tax return your not reducing your gross profit by claiming for associated costs from running a business from home? That amazes me.

    Pitfall69cardgenius
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,003
    enotoga said:

    ...total of 1 Tumbler and 1 Exo-Suit. ..
    So what is the play with these? Hold or Sell. ..

    You bough the Tumbler way to early to hold. You best bet may be to flip both mid December.
    Pitfall69cardgeniusstarwarfan77
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133


    Why on earth would you tie that money up in a Tumbler for some years? Seriously, I don't understand that.

    You don't have insight into what a Tumbler might be worth 6 months, 1 year, 2 year, or 3+ years from now, so I'm equally perplexed by your refusal to consider keeping one for the long haul. You also have no insight into the availability of Tumbler at these time intervals. Therein lies your answer.
    stevemack said:

    Dad said:

    ^ Sure, but that's 100% gross profit. Surely you've got your taxes and all other associated business costs to come off that??

    Gross profits easier to state! There's tax obviously but no business costs as it's all from home!
    So when you file your tax return your not reducing your gross profit by claiming for associated costs from running a business from home? That amazes me.



    "Gross profits are easier to state" was the reasoning, no formal tax accounting needed.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133

    enotoga said:

    ...total of 1 Tumbler and 1 Exo-Suit. ..
    So what is the play with these? Hold or Sell. ..

    You bough the Tumbler way to early to hold. You best bet may be to flip both mid December.
    Here's the question - is there any history on exclusives that have been released and then offered only through the stores? Why do we assume that Tumbler is setting up for a 2-4 year run? Do you think that after 2014 Tumbler will be offered online again?

    The website states "We apologize, but this item will not be available on shop.LEGO.com for the remainder of 2014. Limited quantities may be available in October in LEGO Stores" Nothing is mentioned about 2015
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    I think you misunderstand my statement.... Gross profits are easier to state here on this forum as it's pretty much available off the top of my head.

    Obviously there are 'business costs' (minimal as I use my day job company van to drop parcels etc which would be illegal to claim anything for) but I don't class them as business costs anyway because it's not a limited business, I'm merely a sole trader, have been for years, I've been down the limited company route once before and the cost of having a LTD name isn't worth the hassle for the additional paperwork in my eyes! I was ltd and vat registered, the only plus point was the vat registration really allowing you to claim vat back on anything bought for the company and great when it came down to buying stock initially as you get a nice rebate :)

    I probably am missing things I should claim for but to me at the moment I'm happy with my input-output without getting into having an accountant to sort things for me again!
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    enotoga said:

    enotoga said:

    ...total of 1 Tumbler and 1 Exo-Suit. ..
    So what is the play with these? Hold or Sell. ..

    You bough the Tumbler way to early to hold. You best bet may be to flip both mid December.
    Here's the question - is there any history on exclusives that have been released and then offered only through the stores? Why do we assume that Tumbler is setting up for a 2-4 year run? Do you think that after 2014 Tumbler will be offered online again?

    The website states "We apologize, but this item will not be available on shop.LEGO.com for the remainder of 2014. Limited quantities may be available in October in LEGO Stores" Nothing is mentioned about 2015
    What answer did you come up with prior to buying it?

  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2014
    Nothing has ever been confirmed (to my knowledge) indicating the Tumbler is limited production, or that it will only ever be available in stores from now on. My guess, as has been mentioned here many times, is that Lego may be maxed out producing cheaper and higher-volume sets for the holidays, and may not have the manufacturing capacity to simultaneously produce more expensive and presumably slower-selling sets like the Tumbler in large quantity.

    This seems to happen every year around x-mas for one or more sets. Last year it was Minecraft, 2012 was city Fire Station, and I'm sure there are many other sets that I'm omitting.

    I would find it quite odd if the Tumbler were not available online in early 2015 and available for several years to come.

    I don't think anyone has any real insight as to how much the Tumbler might be worth around the holidays. If you think it might be worth a lot in the near term, hold onto it! I doubt it will be, but you never know. Minecraft was a winner last year due to similar reasons (restricted supply).
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    It is crazy to assume the tumbler won't continue in production, it was expected to be popular and has been... Very popular. Maybe someone with better knowledge than me can tell us when the license ends too, just to add to the crazy idea :)
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Dad said:

    enotoga said:

    enotoga said:

    ...total of 1 Tumbler and 1 Exo-Suit. ..
    So what is the play with these? Hold or Sell. ..

    You bough the Tumbler way to early to hold. You best bet may be to flip both mid December.
    Here's the question - is there any history on exclusives that have been released and then offered only through the stores? Why do we assume that Tumbler is setting up for a 2-4 year run? Do you think that after 2014 Tumbler will be offered online again?

    The website states "We apologize, but this item will not be available on shop.LEGO.com for the remainder of 2014. Limited quantities may be available in October in LEGO Stores" Nothing is mentioned about 2015
    What answer did you come up with prior to buying it?

    A true Lego fan who gazes at this outstanding set for mere seconds has every answer to every question they could possibly have regarding the procurement of 1 copy. When you look past 1 copy is where the harder questions reside.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    Ps Mine are being held until mid december as was suggested! Flip for Xmas for me!
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    stevemack said:

    Ps Mine are being held until mid december as was suggested! Flip for Xmas for me!

    That sounds like the best play, provided I can get more than one copy. Do you have any advice on how to get more than one from the local store. I heard there was a limit of 1 per customer, but I suppose if someone comes in with cash it's easy enough to get around that. I gave my VIP number on today's purchase, so I don't think I can use the same VIP number or CC for a subsequent purchase.

  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    They don't check your past purchases (VIP, CC or otherwise) at the POS in store.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Dad said:

    So when you file your tax return your not reducing your gross profit by claiming for associated costs from running a business from home? That amazes me.

    Do you honestly believe that even half the posters here are reporting anything on their taxes? :)

    Unless you sell both over $20K and 200 items on either eBay or Amazon, nothing gets reported to the IRS. Few people self report.
    Pitfall69DougoutDanGP
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    pcirone said:

    They don't check your past purchases (VIP, CC or otherwise) at the POS in store.

    Unless they know you by name. ;)

    <- points at self
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,667

    Just a heads up to the folks who sell on ebay and also use the GSP for their sets. You may have noticed (or not) sets listed after 9/24 are no longer eligible to be shipped using the GSP. You can choose the GSP option when you list but when you go to the published auction it will state you only ship to the USA unless you also have alternative shipping chosen in which case you can ship directly overseas on your own outside of the GSP.

    I called this morning thinking this was the usual ebay glitch but the Utah rep stated LEGO requested that new sets not be sold through the GSP on the USA site claiming it is a copyright violation to do so.

    Now there are ways to get around it so you can get the listing to show with GSP as an option (listing in the wrong category etc) but you risk getting permanently banned by ebay so I would not attempt it unless you know how to get around the ebay/paypal bans.

    Just be careful shipping on your own outside of GSP on ebay as now if your buyer claims SNAD you as the seller have to pay return shipping back to the USA along with any customs fees/import taxes. If you don't pay then ebay will refund the buyer and let them keep the item. They will then take that money out of your paypal or send you to collections if the funds are not available. Weigh the risks and adjust prices accordingly to absorb those losses.

    Looks like GSP is enabled again for new LEGO sets, just sold one that way and I noticed my other listings could ship also ship to GSP countries again.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    ^ Lol.... I just get the odd comment of... "you really like lego don't you" .... My response consists of a chuckle and smile to the wife helping me carry it all :P
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014


    quote - "Looks like GSP is enabled again for new LEGO sets, just sold one that way and I noticed my other listings could ship also ship to GSP countries again."

    I ran into this issue once with a book publisher. The publisher didn't have rights to sell the book outside of the USA. They claimed than nobody in the USA could legally sell the book to a buyer outside the USA, and if someone did sell it, it would be a copyright violation.

    The solution for sellers was to list the book as used, and then indicate in the description that it was new. The "used" auction designation prevented Ebay filters from screening for the illegal auctions. This might be similar to what Lego is claiming - you may not have the right to resell new Lego sets in a given territory, but you'll always hae the right to sell a used set.

  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    ^ maybe if you 'use' the sealed box for a bit then that would legitimise your claims, too, whilst keeping the lego itself new...
    Dougout
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    edited October 2014
    TH #10224 and GE #10212 sold out @ [email protected] europe, too. Now it could be really done for both.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    #10212.... Imperial Shuttle?
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    #10211 ;)
  • minicoopers11minicoopers11 USAMember Posts: 104
    edited October 2014
    enotoga said:



    I ran into this issue once with a book publisher. The publisher didn't have rights to sell the book outside of the USA. They claimed than nobody in the USA could legally sell the book to a buyer outside the USA, and if someone did sell it, it would be a copyright violation.

    The solution for sellers was to list the book as used, and then indicate in the description that it was new. The "used" auction designation prevented Ebay filters from screening for the illegal auctions. This might be similar to what Lego is claiming - you may not have the right to resell new Lego sets in a given territory, but you'll always hae the right to sell a used set.

    Except Lego is the only producer of Lego, so the only possible violation would be against Lego's own reselling policies, which do not directly affect third party resellers (except when you buy direct from Lego ;) ).
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    bp10030 said:

    TH #10224 and GE #10212 sold out @ [email protected] europe, too. Now it could be really done for both.

    Being out-of-stock in both Europe and North America is probably the best way to determine if TLG has truly EOL'd a set. How many other sets have shown as "out of stock" in both locations, yet ended up back in stock?
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133

    enotoga said:



    I ran into this issue once with a book publisher. The publisher didn't have rights to sell the book outside of the USA. They claimed than nobody in the USA could legally sell the book to a buyer outside the USA, and if someone did sell it, it would be a copyright violation.

    The solution for sellers was to list the book as used, and then indicate in the description that it was new. The "used" auction designation prevented Ebay filters from screening for the illegal auctions. This might be similar to what Lego is claiming - you may not have the right to resell new Lego sets in a given territory, but you'll always hae the right to sell a used set.

    Except Lego is the only producer of Lego, so the only possible violation would be against Lego's own reselling policies, which do not directly affect third party resellers (except when you buy direct from Lego ;) ).
    I'm not a copyright expert but here's how I think it works. As a resident of North America, when I buy a copyrighted item (like Lego) I agree to abide by whatever is in the copyright terms. In the terms it may state "cannot resell as new outside of North America". But I have no idea what the copyright actually says - just hypothetical
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917
    Off to buy some #10224 :) Thank god for working 5 mins away from a lego store!
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    stevemack said:

    Off to buy some #10224 :) Thank god for working 5 mins away from a lego store!

    Don't forget #10211 or #10228 or #21110 or #10223 or #10221,although I suspect you have these already ;-)

    bp10030DanGP
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Gotta admit...the more I see the #10228 HH set, the more I like it. I'm not into the minifigs, but the house itself is awesome. I only picked up a single copy and now wish I had a couple (one to keep and one to sell to pay for both copies). I really expect this set to perform as well as the GG #10185 within the next couple of years.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    enotoga said:

    I'm not a copyright expert but here's how I think it works. As a resident of North America, when I buy a copyrighted item (like Lego) I agree to abide by whatever is in the copyright terms. In the terms it may state "cannot resell as new outside of North America". But I have no idea what the copyright actually says - just hypothetical

    You're thinking of things that are licensed, not sold...

    The copyright terms are simple:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_law_of_the_United_States_of_America

    They aren't terms that the publisher prints in the front of a book.

    One critical aspect is the first sale doctrine, which "limits the rights of copyright holders to control the distribution and display of copies of their works"

    ----------

    That being said, the issue is far more complex than that, and frankly if you ask 10 lawyers, you'll get 10 opinions. :)

    And if TLG takes someone to court, that is really the only true test.

    I am not a lawyer, but I've paid more than one over the years for their help, and all I know is that I wouldn't want to have to pay for a copyright court case, it sounds expensive. :)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,092
    Dougout said:

    I hope nobody is expecting TS to "pay off" at this point. I was just stating that I think a new movie is inevitable.

    It already has paid off for me. #7593 was £7.49 at tesco, and with vouchers it was possible to get them for about £6.40. Zurg alone sells for £15-20 now.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    I really expect this set to perform as well as the GG #10185 within the next couple of years.

    The Haunted House is a seasonal set. I doubt it was that great of a seller aside from the past few months when supply was drained. It will do well because it is popular with AFOL. But Green Grocer is largely considered one of the best, if not best modular ever produced. It also is part of a continuing theme unlike Monster Fighters.

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited October 2014

    Gotta admit...the more I see the #10228 HH set, the more I like it. I'm not into the minifigs, but the house itself is awesome. I only picked up a single copy and now wish I had a couple (one to keep and one to sell to pay for both copies). I really expect this set to perform as well as the GG #10185 within the next couple of years.

    The HH set is impressive. It is very unique and appeals to a lot of age groups. One of the best LEGO sets currently out. The green color is great. The minifigs are too. The fact that it opens like a doll house is awesome and something I hope we see a lot more in LEGO buildings. I know we've said that sets like MVV, etc would be great for resell. Some we get right, some we miss. I think the HH will resell very well.

    Farmer_John
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 917

    stevemack said:

    Off to buy some #10224 :) Thank god for working 5 mins away from a lego store!

    Don't forget #10211 or #10228 or #21110 or #10223 or #10221,although I suspect you have these already ;-)

    Lol... As with football stickers when I was a kid....

    Got Got Got Need Got :)

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