Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

nkx1

^^Consider yourself fortunate, or simply a better reseller. I went crazy when I first got back into Lego about 3 years ago, and bought a bunch of stuff on sale/clearance (Cars sets, Toy Story sets come to mind). None ever did well (as of when I sold them earlier this year), and I while I technically sold them for more than I paid, most sales were actually a loss after fees/shipping. Overall, reselling has definitely been profitable for me, though it's also a fair amount of work.

I've since refined my buying significantly and will probably only buy one to two sets (in multiples) per year, and hope to avoid any losses in the future.

Farmer_John

^To your point, my inventory is broad and shallow as opposed to narrow and deep. I'm not a good enough prognosticator to go deep on a few sets, so I try to spread the risk.

pumperx

Since you guys were talking about HP, that remind me one of my better hauls at Walmart. Hogwarts was $17.5!!

https://flickr.com/gp/22142799@N03/x6Y46K

https://flickr.com/gp/22142799@N03/x6Y46K

BrickDancer

^I too went broad and shallow to minimize the risk. But looking back, I wish I went the other direction and gone deep on a few guaranteed winners.

Dougout

You can add me to the list of people that REALLY regret not buying any Hogwarts Castles at $60 from Walmart. Pretty stupid considering I had a handful purchased at msrp. I was really hit or miss back then. I had to suffer through two Home Ones and even an Alien Mothership before I finally understood what makes a set good.

I also passed up about 40 Black Pearls at the same WM before grabbing a bunch. I had no idea about BP, I wasn't interested in ships yet, didn't see it as another IF. Good thing I eventually got some sense and grabbed some. Should have listened to everyone's comments earlier.

ThirdBuckEye

I just went with one of each on the HP sets. Luckily I still have a sealed DA and Burrows set. Really impressed at the 350% increase in the Burrow set. On a side note I have a stack of 10 or so different Toy Story sets that I would like to sell. Should I sell them individually or in a lot. Or wait till next Xmas or the next movie to come out.

Bumblepants

Just a friendly heads up: #10237 The Tower of Orthanc is currently 'Out of Stock - ship in 30 days' on S@H USA. Certainly doesn't mean it is on the verge of retirement but if you can't live without one might want to think about sooner rather than later.

Farmer_John

I thought Toy Story would be a winner and have several stashed away. Somehow I doubt TLG will re-release the TS theme if a new movie comes out based on how the first go-around went for them. If another movie is released, the old TS sets may do okay. Problem is, who wants to hold them until TS 4 comes out...

Dougout

^Might be 2015, they are making a new one

ThirdBuckEye

I could wait another year maybe 2 but I also thought they would be a hit especially purchasing them on clearance. Seems like they are reselling for only 25-50% over retail which after seller fees and shipping is basically breaking even considering storage space.

nkx1

Word on the street (i.e. other forums) is that #10937 AA may be on its way out. This set could be a winner, particularly if you can outlast the flippers. Better get one (or 50) before they're gone!

Zathras

I'll one up you tamamahn - I bought my copy of 4842 for $32 (yes it was 75% off) at a Walmart when they clearanced most of the line out. The sad part I picked through 5 copy's of it to find the best one with a pristine box. To give you an idea how they did, all the copies had dust on them from sitting undisturbed for a solid 6 months on the top shelf.

Double sad moment bought a copy of the Burrow at the same time for $18. It was one of 6 copies...

Went back the next night to pick up a second copy of the castle ... All gone. At the time I was mad only about the fact I had missed the train at $20.

Now the math kills me while the sandcrawler and Arkham asylum sit on my wanted list.

Steve_J_OM

Dougout said:

^Might be 2015, they are making a new one

Are you thinking of Toy Story that Time Forgot? That's only a 22-minute TV special airing at Christmas, much like Toy Story of Terror last Halloween. As far as I know, that's the only Toy Story we're getting for the foreseeable future.

stevemack

Gutted, as a 30 year old Toy story is one of the best films ever :)

prevere

^This is true, but TLG may own the "animated toy movie category" for the next 5 years.

Pitfall69

Zathras said:

I'll one up you tamamahn - I bought my copy of 4842 for $32 (yes it was 75% off) at a Walmart when they clearanced most of the line out. The sad part I picked through 5 copy's of it to find the best one with a pristine box. To give you an idea how they did, all the copies had dust on them from sitting undisturbed for a solid 6 months on the top shelf.

Double sad moment bought a copy of the Burrow at the same time for $18. It was one of 6 copies...

Went back the next night to pick up a second copy of the castle ... All gone. At the time I was mad only about the fact I had missed the train at $20.

Now the math kills me while the sandcrawler and Arkham asylum sit on my wanted list.

Yeah, that is bad. I would have bought them all, damaged or not. My problem was having enough money to buy all that could. Like the old saying goes "you need to have money to make money."

tamamahm

LOL! Yes, that is even worse than me. ;-)

Dougout

Steve_J_OM said:

Dougout said:

^Might be 2015, they are making a new one

Are you thinking of Toy Story that Time Forgot? That's only a 22-minute TV special airing at Christmas, much like Toy Story of Terror last Halloween. As far as I know, that's the only Toy Story we're getting for the foreseeable future.

It could just be rumor, but Toy Story is a good franchise and I don't think anyone wants to let it die yet.

Bumblepants

^So what you are saying is we need to hold onto our Construct-a-Zurg stashes just a few more years until it finally pays off?

Dougout

I hope nobody is expecting TS to "pay off" at this point. I was just stating that I think a new movie is inevitable.

prevere

There are few trilogy franchises that end almost perfectly, but TS is right there.

wagnerml2

Two words for anyone holding TS stock.....Part Out.

cloaked7

Pitfall69 said:

As far as reselling goes, I have NEVER sold anything for a loss and I don't think I have sold any Lego set and broke even. The only thing I can think of is maybe some CMF's, but those aren't really sets per se.

When you consider storage costs (or just the logistics and aggravation of storage) and the time value of money I've lost $$ on a few sets, but it rarely happens. If a set isn't doing well at a given time, generally all I have to do it hold onto it for a year and I make a decent profit. It is amazing the difference a year makes with most sets. That is, after supply goes down quite a bit.

Pitfall69

cloaked7 said:

Pitfall69 said:

As far as reselling goes, I have NEVER sold anything for a loss and I don't think I have sold any Lego set and broke even. The only thing I can think of is maybe some CMF's, but those aren't really sets per se.

When you consider storage costs (or just the logistics and aggravation of storage) and the time value of money I've lost $$ on a few sets, but it rarely happens. If a set isn't doing well at a given time, generally all I have to do it hold onto it for a year and I make a decent profit. It is amazing the difference a year makes with most sets. That is, after supply goes down quite a bit.

I know storage is a big issue with some people. I built the cheapest shelves for my Lego last summer. Probably cost less than $150. I did it on a weekend that my wife and kids were away. I enjoyed the time alone building, so I didn't consider the time/money issue.

exciter1

nkx1 said:

Word on the street (i.e. other forums) is that #10937 AA may be on its way out. This set could be a winner, particularly if you can outlast the flippers. Better get one (or 50) before they're gone!

I think this is false, at least until 2016.

Pitfall69

^I heard the same from a very reliable source, but you can wait until 2016 to buy if you'd like ;)

Bumblepants

This has nothing to do with Lego buuuuuut Dodge just ran an ad claiming their Ram engine is 27% more efficient than Ford.

Pitfall69

I saw that ad yesterday. Hahahahaha

matticus_bricks

Zathras said:

I'll one up you tamamahn - I bought my copy of 4842 for $32 (yes it was 75% off) at a Walmart when they clearanced most of the line out. The sad part I picked through 5 copy's of it to find the best one with a pristine box. To give you an idea how they did, all the copies had dust on them from sitting undisturbed for a solid 6 months on the top shelf.

Double sad moment bought a copy of the Burrow at the same time for $18. It was one of 6 copies...

Went back the next night to pick up a second copy of the castle ... All gone. At the time I was mad only about the fact I had missed the train at $20.

Now the math kills me while the sandcrawler and Arkham asylum sit on my wanted list.

This makes me so sad I want to cry. I'm a big Harry Potter fan, but I was in my Dark Ages when those sets were released, so I never got any of them. I can't believe the crazy prices people sell them at now, and I certainly can't pay them. Those sale prices are unbelievable.

edgarallanpoe1422

Luckily I'm not into HP, but SW is arguably worse. It hurt a lot paying market rates for a secondhand #10143. $800 AUD. Ouch.

Farmer_John

edgarallanpoe1422 said:

Luckily I'm not into HP, but SW is arguably worse. It hurt a lot paying market rates for a secondhand #10143. $800 AUD. Ouch.

Speaking of #10143 Death Star, what are your thoughts on that set...good, bad or indifferent? I remember having an opportunity to pick it up, but that was when I was just coming out of my dark ages and I couldn't see paying more than $30 for any Lego set. ;-)

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

^I heard the same from a very reliable source, but you can wait until 2016 to buy if you'd like ;)

Reliable source notwithstanding, the AA set just "feels" like its about to go...just as ToO feels like it's about to go. The AA is one of just a couple sets on my list to get during the BF sale.

prevere

Would they really retire the Batcave and Arkham in the same season? That doesn't make sense to me.

wagnerml2

AA will be a BIG TIME winner. As will most of the post-nondiscount exclusive sets.

nkx1

^I read a lot of people saying this, but I wonder if this will be the case, given how many people may be hoarding it. It could simply be a very moderate winner similar to Fire Brigade. Then again, even if there is similar hoarding, maybe demand is higher than FB which will deplete initial supply quickly and cause prices to rise faster than FB. I'm skipping this one (in large quantity) because I ran out of storage room. Hopefully I don't regret it too much.

madforLEGO

FB cannot be compared to post discount ban sets, as it was discounted and horded WELL before the ban. Even AA was available during the available of Exclusives being on discount (albeit briefly), so my guess is that not many have this piled up yet.
Second, Any post discount ban sets is not likely to be horded as much as FB was, again due to the missing discounts. What will occur however, is even if there is the glint of it ending its production run you are going to have wild speculation and stocks cleared out everywhere.
My guess is that speculators start doing this when stocks at retail outlets are not replenished within 'x' time and the set had been available for 'x' time. Then they going into a frenzy and buy whatever they can get their hands on, running LEGO out of its stocks, like what occurred with Haunted House and TH. Though I think TH may bite these people, like GE I think in some ways, if LEGO is just simply overwhelmed at demand at the moment and will be making more, but just need time (like the Exo Suits).
So really I would caution against those who like to last minute shop the Exclusives in the US. If you want a set that cannot be discounted and it is anywhere near 2 years out, buy it then, and do not wait.

Also, if it means anything I dunno, but I notice on S@H the RI is now listed as 'sold out' AFTER the Mars Rover entry in the Ideas section. It used to be the 2nd or 3rd listing on the page and it is a little move only, but wonder if that means it is now really gone for good and the only stocks that will remain will be any that happen to be at a store now.

Dad

nkx1 said:

^I read a lot of people saying this, but I wonder if this will be the case, given how many people may be hoarding it. It could simply be a very moderate winner similar to Fire Brigade. Then again, even if there is similar hoarding, maybe demand is higher than FB which will deplete initial supply quickly and cause prices to rise faster than FB. I'm skipping this one (in large quantity) because I ran out of storage room. Hopefully I don't regret it too much.

Whether you regret it or not surely depends on what you've filled your storage space with?

nkx1

^Ha, good point! Nothing spectacular, really- multiples of yellow cargo train, 41999, Unimog, Helms Deep, etc. I've unfortunately sold all of the most profitable stuff. AA is almost certain to outperform anything I have in inventory currently. Now that you mention it, maybe I should unload all this stuff now; I've just been too lazy!

Pitfall69

I have noticed that #79111 The Lone Ranger Constitution Train Chase is starting to increase in value. Now that it has been retired for a while; are we going to see nice gains or is this set going to be a long term dud?

Farmer_John

^I haven't check prices in awhile, but I think the #79111 Lone Ranger Constitution Train will do well for several reasons. First, there were some significant discounts on it. Second, it is a versatile set (especially the engine) and is perfect for changing up. I didn't like the color scheme, so I purchased black pieces to replace the green piece...it looks great. Third, I've read that others are using this train set to create a better version of the holiday train #10173. I'm sure theirs look better than the original; the original holiday train just looks to "blocky" to me.

Overall, #79111 was a great set for the price...especially when it was discounted almost 50%.

enotoga

I haven't noticed any change in #79111 yet because there's still a ton of inventory we need to burn through. I'm not looking for this one to show any real gains for a couple more years, but I think it will be a solid performer - a real classic.

pharmjod

If you managed to get them for $50, which many did, you can I think easily sell for $99 now with free shipping. After fees and shipping and all you are looking at close to 45% gain. Not too shabby. I think it will continue to rise, but just slowly. Nothing meteoric, but even a 45% gain isn't anything to scoff at.

madforLEGO

pharmjod said:

If you managed to get them for $50, which many did, you can I think easily sell for $99 now with free shipping. After fees and shipping and all you are looking at close to 45% gain. Not too shabby. I think it will continue to rise, but just slowly. Nothing meteoric, but even a 45% gain isn't anything to scoff at.

45% seems like a lot, but it is not on a 50 dollar set IMO. 99 USD and free shipping.. Figure at least 10 for shipping and hope it does not need to go to a zone that is farther than 1-2 away in terms of PO otherwise it really starts to add up (also more around 15 if you insure, which is a wise thing to do nowadays on eBay IMO) and then tack on another 15-20% in fees if you are selling via eBay, which will be the easiest place to move sets.
So at the end user of the day you make about 20-25 USD, maybe, off each one and IF you happened to find them at 50 USD. Unless you happen to have 50-100 in a shed somewhere AND sell them all in about 1 month, it really is not much IMO. Even if you make the buyer pay for shipping.
Unless you think it is worth it to spend as much time and energy (and possible problems with the shipper and or buyer) to move a set for essentially 25 dollars.

Pitfall69

^Yeah, I was thinking this would be a slow mover, but still end up a winner.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

^Yeah, I was thinking this would be a slow mover, but still end up a winner.

I think it still can, but not right now. And not if LEGO comes out with another Locomotive set like EN after HE, which may or may not be on its way out soon.

Pitfall69

madforLEGO said:

Pitfall69 said:

^Yeah, I was thinking this would be a slow mover, but still end up a winner.

I think it still can, but not right now. And not if LEGO comes out with another Locomotive set like EN after HE, which may or may not be on its way out soon.

From what I have gathered, trains are slow movers for TLG and that is why they don't release more trains than they do.

stevemack

I bought all my #79111 for about £35 and now selling them at RRP, that's over 100% return for me so I'm quite happy with it so far!

Dad

nkx1 said:

^Ha, good point! Nothing spectacular, really- multiples of yellow cargo train, 41999, Unimog, Helms Deep, etc. I've unfortunately sold all of the most profitable stuff. AA is almost certain to outperform anything I have in inventory currently. Now that you mention it, maybe I should unload all this stuff now; I've just been too lazy!

The point I was trying to make was that most of us have been guilty of selling sets too early to make way for the next ones because we needed to release cash or create space.
And in doing so we've just created ourselves a whole load of work as we've watched the sets we've released soar in value. We feel that we can't miss out on a 'sure winner' but if we are stacked to the brim with winners already then why bother. When all said and done it's just another box with different artwork and contents.
Sure, we need to keep going, but the more different sets you purchase the more chance that you're going to pick a dud. Unless you've unlimited cash / space the bigger you pile in the sooner you have to offload if you want to go again on the next set.
If you believe AA will out perform anything you have in your current inventory then you need to get shifting sets now. It's easy to sell the profitable sets, it's the others where the work is.
My strategy has changed now, I'm buying less and holding longer and not getting involved in selling the first 12 months post eol. Obviously there are exceptions.

I only bought 4 SSD's because if I'd have bought 15 or more I'd have had to start selling at minimum profit because I can't tie that much cash or space up for 3+ years and can't see the point of taking the risk shipping such an expensive set for say £75 profit. Sure, profit is profit but there's better sets to quick flip. But I'm loaded up on FB, HH, and WVC. The WVC I've only had 2 months yet there is 100% clear profit in them and I have lots so it would be foolish not to sell half of them. And if that profit increases to nearer 150% as Christmas draws closer then I'll sell most of them. Yet FB and HH I'll just watch the market. I'm trying to say that I won't be flipping HH at minimum profit to buy AA's.

Unimog isn't doing that well. I've always bought 10 of the Technic Flagship sets, 8275, 8043, and 8110. But at present I've got 1 x 8043 and 10 x 8110. History suggests that I sold too early on the other 2 sets to make way for the next ones whereas with hindsight I should have just held my 8275's and saved myself a whole load of work. But of course I'd have been gutted had I not bought any 8043's as I've sold some at 200% profit. But as time goes on and more people are at this game it gets harder as we all know and that's why Unimog won't perform like the others.

We all play the game how it suits us but I think sometimes we've got to let what we perceive as a sure winner pass us by as it may be better sitting on what we already have for another 12 months. Good luck!

SuperTramp

stevemack said:

I bought all my #79111 for about £35 and now selling them at RRP, that's over 100% return for me so I'm quite happy with it so far!

Who sold them £35? the cheapest i i saw them go for was £45.

I think i have around 18 left. I sold around 5 for retail a few months back just to free up some cash but for the time being im hanging on till they hit around the £120 mark.

stevemack

^ argos with special discount though :)