Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

LegoFanTexas

stevemack said:

Can we chill out on the reseller money chat.....

Why? This is the thread for it...

Brickaholic

blockquote>
Lego does what, 70% of their business in the 12 weeks leading up to Xmas?


92.7% in the Cranberry sauce business apparently :)

Istokg

Good points all... I wasn't trying to paint a doom and gloom picture... LEGO is like coin collecting... you can always spend it! (Although I'm sure the return on a parted out set is much more than coinage).

I like the comments about the modulars... at what point does room to display them become a problem, and cause future problems for demand?

Also, I agree about resellers sticking to the latest LEGO product.

Back in the early days of the internet, when all that was available online was RTL and LUGNET... many of the 1970s and 1980s sets were hot. But the more into the future we get, the less interest there seems to be in the older LEGO items. And a lot of that stuff is really what is rarer than today's LEGO production.

And the farther back in LEGO history we go... the fewer collectors there are out there. I know of many old time collectors who find old LEGO from the 1950s and 1960s at what could be bargain prices (compared to today's LEGO).... and so some of these folks are quite happy to continue to buy up bargains. Some of these could be the "52 Mickey Mantle Rookie Cards" of LEGO...







The hoarding instinct is almost as bad as Bricklinks John Patterson buying 39 copies of the 1965 USA Samsonite Gear Set 001.... because they were cheap!! ;-)

prevere

I'm surprised to see how many BL sellers are not really lego builders/collectors, especially among the bigger ones..

They spend all their time sorting. That's a hobby in itself. It can be difficult for one to understand how a person can spend an hour or two a day sorting parts. For me, it's the equivalent of a nap...quiet and mindless.

graphite

^ I mostly watch movies while sorting and listen to music while picking orders. I'm probably in the 3-4 hours a day average for maintaining my BL store. Haven't really sat down and figured out what that is paying myself and don't care either. I enjoy it and it helps somewhat with stress relief from my full time job.

CCC

prevere said:

I'm surprised to see how many BL sellers are not really lego builders/collectors, especially among the bigger ones..

They spend all their time sorting. That's a hobby in itself. It can be difficult for one to understand how a person can spend an hour or two a day sorting parts. For me, it's the equivalent of a nap...quiet and mindless.

For some, it is not a hobby though. It is a job. They don't care for the parts, they are investments. By sorting them they add value to what they have. That is the motive for some.

enotoga

Juggles7 - I apologize, I didn't realize the specifics of your situation. There is no shame in personal challenges. In some ways the internet is the great physical equalizer - we're all the same in that regard. The downside is that we're often not aware of each others personal challenges.

What's going on with Delorean Time Machine? Someone said it was sold out in Australia. Does anyone have thoughts on this?

I think Time Machine is going to be a fast double once it's gone.

Istokg

I want to go back and clear up something I stated earlier... my analogy about paying for your kids education and the Beanie Babies analogy... If you are buying and selling LEGO towards that goal, that is much different than just buying and hoarding Beanie Babies... A capital turnover of reinvesting your money in LEGO sales is another animal altogether (short term versus long term).... ;-)

Cheers,
Gary

asherkobin

I just signed up for a brickpicker.com account but I can't log in (404 error). I was wondering if my 4557 (train loading station) sold for around market price. It sold for $68 with auction starting at $10).

Anyone else have a problem logging in?

edgarallanpoe1422

So anyway about that Lego stuff, I have a set of four Minecraft Micro-Worlds I recently got at 20% off (TRU still had some in stock and were doing a 20% off weekend). Given that there's a new range of Minecraft sets coming out that are by all accounts larger, better, and cooler, is it worth just flipping them for whatever I can get and maybe make 30% on them, or will their investment performance be aided by the new sets?

enotoga

edgarallanpoe1422 said:

So anyway about that Lego stuff, I have a set of four Minecraft Micro-Worlds I recently got at 20% off (TRU still had some in stock and were doing a 20% off weekend). Given that there's a new range of Minecraft sets coming out that are by all accounts larger, better, and cooler, is it worth just flipping them for whatever I can get and maybe make 30% on them, or will their investment performance be aided by the new sets?

I think Micro-Worlds is going to have its day at some point in 2015. The new sets look great. I was in Barnes and Noble yesterday and very impressed with their Micro-Worlds display. I wouldn't flip at this point.

rocao

If you're looking to continue the discussion about wages and worker replacement, I've moved it to the Off-Topic category: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/16995/wages-and-worker-replacement

rocao

If you're looking to continue the discussion about 'retarded', I've move it to the Off-Topic category: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/16996/retracing-the-redefinition-of-retarded

flyingpig

Healthcare talk is on topic but wages and the developmentally disabled isn't?

And since when did this thread ever care about staying on topic.

Steve_J_OM

[S@H Europe] After a week of processing, my card has now been charged for my Town Hall order, the VIP points have been added to my account, and the promo set has been dispatched. With this in mind, I should be reasonably confident that the order is going to be fulfilled, right? The product page still shows back order rather than sold out.

enotoga

If they gave you the VIP points, I'd say your Town Hall in the process of being shipped to you. I think they wait until they've received payment from your credit card company before posting points, and they only charge the cc when shipping is imminent.

bp10030

Hobbit set #79003 listed with "Call to check product availability..." at [email protected]
ToO #10237 OOS with ship date January 31st at [email protected]

Farmer_John

^Yep and yep...

I wouldn't be surprised if both of these sets #79003 Unexpected Gathering and #10237 ToO are gone in the USA within the next couple of months. A few weeks ago I mentioned there were a couple sets that I was concerned about waiting to purchase in order to get the free Black Friday Christmas set; ToO was one of them. I went ahead and purchased it, and it took awhile to fulfill. I was half expecting it to go out of stock then.

The only reason I could see TLG leaving them for sale is the imminent release of the third Hobbit movie. But I doubt that really matters anymore...

juggles7

bp10030 said:

Hobbit set #79003 listed with "Call to check product availability..." at [email protected]
ToO #10237 OOS with ship date January 31st at [email protected]

S@H USA is now showing Tower of Orthanc #10237 at out of stock, but shipping within 30 days.

madforLEGO

juggles7 said:

bp10030 said:

Hobbit set #79003 listed with "Call to check product availability..." at [email protected]
ToO #10237 OOS with ship date January 31st at [email protected]

S@H USA is now showing Tower of Orthanc #10237 at out of stock, but shipping within 30 days.

Yeah, saw that, but I just cannot bring myself to buy one.

littlepuppi

out of interest why is that? I think #10237 is a brilliant set.

madforLEGO

littlepuppi said:

out of interest why is that? I think #10237 is a brilliant set.

The price, not the design, which is nice. I just cannot justify paying 199.99 USD for a LEGO set at this time. Same reason why I did not buy Town halls recently (even though it appears you can flip them pretty easy for a quick 40-50 dollars), and the same reason why I'm waiting until the new Cargo train hits around 150 USD before I buy it.

jdylak

Walmart.com has the Creator family house for $59.99. I missed any when they were on clearance. Thing is I didn't have a Walmart credit card and they have an offer where a $75 purchase, you get $25 credit. So picked the houe and the Car Transporter set for $25. $85 minus the $25 credit, $60 for the two sets. Since the car set is $30 rrp, I basically got the house $30. I'm happy with that as I planned on getting house with my stockpile of VIP points, then it sold out.

bp10030

bp10030 said:

Hobbit set #79003 listed with "Call to check product availability..." at [email protected]
ToO #10237 OOS with ship date January 31st at [email protected]

ToO is now OOS in europe, too.

Farmer_John

What are the general thoughts on the second round of Harry Potter sets? I just did a sort by theme in my spreadsheet and just discovered that I have several copies of #4736 Freeing Dobby. It's just a small set, and I remember getting them at Walmart for about $7/set after getting tired of looking at them set on the shelf for over a month. Those things would not move and had a layer of dust on them when I put them in the cart.

HP is the only theme I've ever purchased for the sole purpose of reselling; not to open even one. We just never got into HP around our house...but I figured it should have been a fairly obvious resell play.

Pitfall69

I still have a couple of Hagrid's Huts, Diagon Alley's and 1 Forbidden Forest. Other than DA, all my Harry Potter Lego went really quick. Hogwarts Castle is the gem of the wave. Hogwarts isn't too shabby either.

goshe7

Pitfall69 said:

Hogwarts Castle is the gem of the wave. Hogwarts isn't too shabby either.

Brilliant! Is the castle also the stinker of the wave? :P

I like the theme to hold value with perhaps modest gains. I'm am surprised that Indiana Jones has held its value with no real ongoing marketing & movies. Harry Potter is fresher and a much more recognized character among younger people. So you've got to think it would do at least that well.

As with many sets, the potential for reissue is one that can seriously decrease the value. Dobby has already been done twice. Does that mean LEGO is a huge fan of his or that they will consider it saturated? I would guess the former as he is a strong good-guy character. Something like Hogwarts and the train are bound to be done again if LEGO does another release. Those are the ones I'd be a bit more worried about losing value.

Pitfall69

goshe7 said:

Pitfall69 said:

Hogwarts Castle is the gem of the wave. Hogwarts isn't too shabby either.

Brilliant! Is the castle also the stinker of the wave? :P

???

Ronyar

@Pitfall69‌ He doesn't understand that you are referring to #4867 Hogwarts in addition to #4842 Hogwarts Castle. I was just coming out of my dark ages and in the middle of selling my house/moving into a temporary apartment when all of the last wave of Harry Potter went on clearance. I remember staring at the various sets on sale and thinking they'd be great to pick up if I wasn't putting most of my stuff in storage. I so should have done that anyway!

Pitfall69

Ahhhh, I thought I was misunderstanding British humor again ;) I guess I thought everyone would know what I was talking about.

goshe7

Shame on me... I completely overlooked that as a different set. I stand humbly corrected and withdraw my sarcastic comment.

Pitfall69

^No worries. You just made me scratch my head that's all :)

CCC

goshe7 said:

Dobby has already been done twice. Does that mean LEGO is a huge fan of his or that they will consider it saturated? I would guess the former as he is a strong good-guy character.

The second Dobby minifig is much better than the first. And that is where the value is in the Freeing Dobby set.

Farmer_John

I have a few of the purple bus sets, and one or two of each of the other sets (except for Dobby, which I have several copies). I may try to at least get rid of the Dobby sets before Christmas then. Thanks!

rocao

My copies of #4736 Freeing Dobby have sold briskly for a profit of about $20 apiece. As @Pitfall69‌ has said, most of last wave of Harry Potter sets -- hogwarts castle, hogwarts express, hogwarts, the burrow, quidditch match -- have done well, both with how much they've appreciated and how quickly they sell.

Pitfall69

^Yes. I sold my last Hogwarts Castle for $378.95. Most of my Hogwarts Castles were purchased while on sale, but I bought as many as I could before EOL at RRP or Clearance. Average purchase price was $94. I got an average return of $200 net.

cloaked7

^ Awesome. That is the kind of return I like to make. After fees, etc. it ends up being a ROI that makes it worth the trouble.

JamesJT

#79003 UG is "call to check.." on UK S@H. 1000s were available for £30 at TRU this summer but it has been selling for just under RRP on ebay in October. Its got to be one of the best looking sets of all time and the new movie is out soon.

cloaked7

I agree. The Hobbit Gathering sets is one of the best LEGO sets ever, all aspects considered. I think it will do well after it retires. Along the same lines as Hogwarts Castle I hope. :-)

Farmer_John

I just checked...I do have two Hogwarts Castles, but only one Diagon Alley. I'll try to sell at least one of the castles in the next month...

Pitfall69

cloaked7 said:

I agree. The Hobbit Gathering sets is one of the best LEGO sets ever, all aspects considered. I think it will do well after it retires. Along the same lines as Hogwarts Castle I hope. :-)

Farmer_John said:

I just checked...I do have two Hogwarts Castles, but only one Diagon Alley. I'll try to sell at least one of the castles in the next month...

One can hope, but I don't see UG doing anywhere close to HC. LOTR is popular, but not nearly as popular as Harry Potter.

cloaked7

^ Probably not as well as HC. Looks like you got close to a 400% return. That is rare. If I get a 200-250% return, which I think is possible, I'll be happy.

Pitfall69

cloaked7 said:

^ Probably not as well as HC. Looks like you got close to a 400% return. That is rare. If I get a 200-250% return, which I think is possible, I'll be happy.

I am so mad at myself too. The other Hogwarts Castles did very well and I knew this would do well, but never expected that sort of return.

tamamahm

Yes, my one regret with never going into reselling... I could have easily picked up about 5 a Hogwarts for $50 each. At a minimum, I should have picked up one extra, and I do regret I did not. It is just such a fun set.

Pitfall69

tamamahm said:

Yes, my one regret with never going into reselling... I could have easily picked up about 5 a Hogwarts for $50 each. At a minimum, I should have picked up one extra, and I do regret I did not. It is just such a fun set.

Hogwarts Castle or Hogwarts? I never saw them for $50!!!

Pitfall69

As far as reselling goes, I have NEVER sold anything for a loss and I don't think I have sold any Lego set and broke even. The only thing I can think of is maybe some CMF's, but those aren't really sets per se.

Brickarmor

^I bought some AC Alien Motherships one time. I know, my own fault.

prevere

Ac earth defense tanks for me. Great set, but not for reselling.

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

As far as reselling goes, I have NEVER sold anything for a loss and I don't think I have sold any Lego set and broke even. The only thing I can think of is maybe some CMF's, but those aren't really sets per se.

I don't know. It seems like there's a lag with the CMFs, but they all seem to be going up. Probably because TLG is now charging $4 a pop, so even the bad ones are expected to cost that much.

On a related point, I saw yesterday that the Bunny Suit guy from Series 7 is going for roughly $20 MSIB. That was a definite "filter out" for me when I was frisking bags. Another one is the Skier from Series 2. I only kept enough of those to make the skiing scene for my WV theme more interesting. Now it's going for nearly $20 as well MSIB. Even the librarian (a librarian???) from Series 10 is doing very well.

My point here is that if many of the CMFs I passed over at the time are some of the best performers, do I dare trust myself with larger Lego expenditures????

tamamahm

Pitfall69 said:

tamamahm said:

Yes, my one regret with never going into reselling... I could have easily picked up about 5 a Hogwarts for $50 each. At a minimum, I should have picked up one extra, and I do regret I did not. It is just such a fun set.

Hogwarts Castle or Hogwarts? I never saw them for $50!!!

Sorry. Hogwart's Castle. 4852 1/2 price in the days of great Walmart sales. I ran across a Walmart with a great stash still.
The stupid part on my part... I believed that they would go up in price a ton. There was no question in my mind that the castle would do very well. I still did not buy them because I do not resell.
As said, I should have bought at least one, and realistically I should have bought them all. I do have an extra Hagrid Hut around here.