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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Hmm, there is a business idea...

    UCS Falcon set rental... :)
    I've thought about that as well. The logistics would be very tough. But how many moms get frustrated that "Johnny" cries for that expensive Lego set. Only to build it in 2 hours, and never plays with it.

    For large sets, it would be a very popular business model from a consumer side. But reverifying sets over and over, and replacing rare and missing parts/minifigs...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    And now for something completely different...

    For those of us who sell on eBay, I find their Lego set categories hysterical. Soooooo outdated. Personally I love the Exo-Force category. Why not Znap then?

    The categories are:
    Agents
    Batman
    Castle
    City, Town
    Creator
    Exo-Force
    Harry Potter
    Indiana Jones
    Pirates
    Police, Fire & Rescue
    Racers
    Space, Mars
    SpongeBob
    Star Wars
    Trains
    Other
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    Just curious, but what do some of you think would be a reasonable rental/build rate for the 10179?
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    @Pacific493 - where did you buy them and return them, if I may ask?
    Walmart...their 90 day return policy is awesome this time of year.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    There is not a "reasonable" rate for rental. How long will it take you to verify you got all the pieces back? Cost of arguing when something is missing?
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    150?!?! :-O
    150 is nothing, I left a lot of them on the shelves at Wally World... Every place I went, they had some of this, some of that, and tons and tons of that set. I would have had 500 at least had I taken them all, maybe a thousand. There are ALOT of this set out there...
    That is one of the sure signs (at least to me) that the set is unlikely to do anything in the secondary market. The sets that rise are the ones that are EOLed without ever going on discount or only being discounted for a short period of time. Any sets that sit around in large quantities at a 50% discount are going to have plenty of supply out there for a while. Look at the Home One set...it was on a 50% discount for a few weeks at the end of its run and, after a year, is only now getting close to RRP.

    That is why I was surprised that you had sold off sets like IF and were talking about selling off some of your EN sets. IMHO, you'd be better off returning those ATVs and hanging on to the better sets.

  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    I think I would take a lot of them back too, if you still can. UNLESS you are also into parting out sets. There are lots of others out there (any HP) that will almost surely be double+ msrp before the ATV's are 75% of retail.

    $0.02
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ I'm with LFT with this. Would not want to go return them either. Eventually he'll get something for them, birthday presents, drive more traffic to his other items, etc.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    That is one of the sure signs (at least to me) that the set is unlikely to do anything in the secondary market. The sets that rise are the ones that are EOLed without ever going on discount or only being discounted for a short period of time. Any sets that sit around in large quantities at a 50% discount are going to have plenty of supply out there for a while. Look at the Home One set...it was on a 50% discount for a few weeks at the end of its run and, after a year, is only now getting close to RRP.
    Yep, learned a powerful lesson this year... On the plus side, the price point of this set does mean it has the chance to go up more over time, Home One may never be double RRP, simply due to the original $130 price point, $260 is simply too much for that set.

    On the other hand, $25 RRP for 2518 means that $50 in two years is not completely crazy. Or maybe it is. :)

    Since I got them for 50% off, even getting RRP for them 6 months from now, or next Christmas, would be just fine with me.
    That is why I was surprised that you had sold off sets like IF and were talking about selling off some of your EN sets. IMHO, you'd be better off returning those ATVs and hanging on to the better sets.
    Returning the sets means I do double the work, for nothing. True, sometimes better to do that and end up back at zero than to lose money, but generally it is pretty hard to lose money buying Lego at 50% off RRP.

    As for IF, being able to double my money in less than 2 months, that is darn good... You need to remember that I have other things to invest in besides Lego, so what I did was take profits off the table, making some of the other sets (like 2518) basically "free" since I have all my original money back, so if it takes a year or two to get $25-35 for that set, times 150 of them, I'm doing just fine.

    Also keep in mind that IF was right here at home, ready to be shipped, 2518 was packed away in storage (and still is), it takes time and effort to go pull them out of storage, my time is better spent on other things.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ I'm with LFT with this. Would not want to go return them either. Eventually he'll get something for them, birthday presents, drive more traffic to his other items, etc.
    Yep, if they aren't worth at least $25 each next Christmas, I might just donate the lot of them to Toys for Tots, take the tax write off for the end of the year, and move on with life.

    Whatever else I do, taking them back to Wally World is not on my list. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Changing topics...

    Clone Turbo Tank - 8098 - This is on sale right now from Amazon for $92.26, 23% off...

    It has now been out almost 2 years... Will it survive to Brick Friday? Will it end up 25% off? If so, will it be gone in a day? (or 5 minutes)

    This is not a set I've watched very closely, I own one, built it a year ago, one of my very early sets when I just came out of my dark ages, but it seems no one talks about it. So either it isn't worth talking about, or it is flying under the radar.

    Same thoughts for 8095 - General Grievous Starfighter. Today, my son started to build this himself, or rather I should say he put the minifigs together and started to play with General Grievous and his 4 lightsabers. :) This set is $36.67, or 27% off.

    Deals, or duds? Interested in other's opinions... I'm on the fence personally...
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ 8098 is down to $87.23. I think it's a good deal. It's frickin ugly as all hell, but it's compatible with the AT-OT and kids seem to like the thing.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ Note, people have been finding this set at 50% off at their Wally's. No luck for me though.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ That is 27% off... Not bad, so long as it isn't still sitting here a year from now. :P

    You're right about the 50% off deals, the question is, how many have moved at that price? I've scanned this set at more than one Walmart, always full price. If only a few hundred sets have moved at 50% off, I'm not worried about that, those will be absorbed quickly... If thousands are at that price, then this is a terrible deal.

    My son likes the tank, but it breaks every time he tries to play with it, I've grown tired of fixing it, so it is just a display set right now.

    I'm somewhat tempted at this price to buy one for him to build himself... A bit advanced for him, but why the heck not. Actually, Amazon has "used" sets for $80.27 that are really still sealed, just damaged box, might get one of those for him. Then he can build it, break it, whatever and put the parts into his collection if he wants.

    Hmm...

    What about 8095? Is General Grievous rare? I haven't seen him before, but one thing I did notice was he was in the plastic bags that look like they are from China, the plastic doesn't "feel" right either. Unless I'm just mistaken of course...
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ I suppose you could say he's "rare" - that particular version of the fig is only found in that set. It typically sells for around $20 on Bricklink.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    @sidersdd Where do you get $87.23?

    Saw the Amazon thing. Was about to buy 5 (the limit) but just bought a couple instead. Its a repeat offender, but it will do well anyway imo. Just see 7676, AT-AT's, AT-TE's, Falcons, etc. Although these are always repeated they still do well in the interim. Anyone getting into Lego during a dry spell will want the iconic vehicles.

    I will probably wind up getting 10 to 15 of them but am trying to concentrate more exclusive sets.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B003F7V7XE
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I wouldn't buy ships like the Grievous. In my experience, these mid-level sets do not do well. At 50%? Absolutely, but not less than that. So many better bets out there.

    I don't think there were that many Tanks at Walmart to be had at 50%. If there were, there were only 1 or 2 at most. Heard of a "few" rare exceptions otherwise here, but nothing I'm concerned about. Looks like most people who got the 50% off tanks are blowing them out now anyway.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    Here's what I'm seeing.
    image
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ I suppose you could say he's "rare" - that particular version of the fig is only found in that set. It typically sells for around $20 on Bricklink.
    $20 on bricklink? The whole set is only $36... That is nuts! :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    edited February 2012
    ^^ I see what @sidersdd sees as well

    edit: see the used copies... In my experience, those are usually pretty good, if you want one to build, they are often a safe bet.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Lol, changed right after I bought some :P

    I know LFT has done it before. What happens if you make separate transactions to by-pass the limit?
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    edited February 2012
    ^^^ Well, it's $36 on sale, yes. Normally $50. The kids these days gotta have their Grievouses I guess. Dunno, I usually buy these sets on clearance, sell the figs, and keep the parts.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^^ I see what @sidersdd sees as well

    edit: see the used copies... In my experience, those are usually pretty good, if you want one to build, they are often a safe bet.
    Yeah, I may buy some of them at $80. Can sell the figs, weapons, and the big wheel thingies for around $55. That'd leave ~$25 for almost 1100 parts. Nice bley parts pack.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Lol, changed right after I bought some :P

    I know LFT has done it before. What happens if you make separate transactions to by-pass the limit?
    So go cancel the order and replace it... :)

    Or e-mail Amazon and ask for a price adjustment. It is not their policy, but every time I've asked, they do it anyway.

    It won't let you bypass the purchase limit, at least on one account... It will let you do it on more than one account... but I'd never, ever have multiple accounts on Amazon, nope, never... ;)

    Actually, my wife has an account, so I have purchased 10 of something, did that on Police Station a week or so ago when it was $71 a copy, but I don't push my luck with more than that. Also did that with MMV when it was below $90 a copy, but I don't normally do it. I purchased 5 Clone Tanks tonight, but didn't bother going over and buying 5 more, too far out I think...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404

    Yeah, I may buy some of them at $80. Can sell the figs, weapons, and the big wheel thingies for around $55. That'd leave ~$25 for almost 1100 parts. Nice bley parts pack.
    Sheesh, those items are worth that much? Sounds like a lot of work, but fair enough...

    BTW, today UPS showed up with Hogwarts Castle, bought it "used" for $100 from Amazon, darn thing looks brand new, has 2 very minor box blemishes, but it looks better than half the stuff Amazon ships me new. Bought it for the wife, she likes HP and needed a cool set to build, I have a habit of taking the good stuff to build, so I have to make sure to give her some neat stuff from time to time. :) I think I'll save DA for her as well, ordered that tonight from Amazon for $129 "used", I expect it to be just as nice as Hogwarts was. Since that set is almost never on sale, I figured $20 off was a fair deal.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Ok, maxed out at 5.

    Remember, Walmart had tons and tons of the Grievous ships anywhere from $35 to $25.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited February 2012
    I bought all my DA's from Lego. 15% off plus another $15 for the HE poly's and another $5 for the monthly poly. Little extra work for selling the poly's but not a big effort just stuffing them in envelopes :P
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    What is strange is that the Grievous Ship is limited to just 3, unlike most Lego where the limit is 5.

    BTW, I just noticed something... I'm clearly an Amazon addict... In 2011, I had a total of 694 orders for stuff. I don't know a way to see the actual item count, but that is a heck of a lot of orders. :)
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    haha almost 2 per day.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    I am going to order a Fire Brigade from Amazon soon, and I have a few questions. If I sign up for the free trial of Amazon Prime, which shipping courier do they normally use? I am shipping my item to Washington State. And do they guarantee 2 day delivery?
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,275
    ^^ @LegoFanTexas how many orders on your wifes account?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^^ @LegoFanTexas how many orders on your wifes account?
    Maybe a dozen total...

    To be honest, at least half of that, if not more, is due to their subscribe and save program... We have a lot of stuff coming on that, from dunny paper to paper towels, from crackers to coffee and tea. Even the Cheerios comes from Amazon, so that really is the reason why. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I am going to order a Fire Brigade from Amazon soon, and I have a few questions. If I sign up for the free trial of Amazon Prime, which shipping courier do they normally use? I am shipping my item to Washington State. And do they guarantee 2 day delivery?
    They use whatever carrier they want, depends on the day and location... UPS is the most common, but for Saturday delivery they usually use FedEx. Sometimes it even comes USPS.

    Careful with the Prime, it is VERY addictive! :) I signed up for a "trial" almost two years ago, never looked back!
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    Amazon does wonders to my friends from the US :) So its not hard to imagine so many orders @LFT.

    As for Clone Tank, I have been trying to get 2 of these, one to build and the other to resell to this kid I know over here who is a bit crazy for this set but he won't pay nothing over 100 USD for it which is not going to help. But no luck so far, yet I have heard from a few friends that the tank keeps breaking apart and you have to keep fixing it which is not a good idea for me as my kid will keep on calling me at work every time it breaks :P So I might drop the idea of this set and maybe LEGO will make a new better one in next 2 years....

    For the General Grievous, excellent ship, excellent building fun, but yes the General mini figure is cheap plastic, though the 4 lightsabers are a great fun to play with. And this set was produced in past as well so there won't be much value in after market I guess.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    Picked up a Clone Tank to build with the kids at $87. I already have one to resell. My credit card is also throwing in 5% cashback from Amazon for the first quarter of this year, so I don't think I could have done much better (for a change). :-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Looks like the price of the Clone tank jumped back over $104. Glad I was able to get one early. Definitely going to build with the kids. This one should be gone this year.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I figured that wouldn't last long at $87. That set seemed rarely discounted and typically is seen via TRU and company for $120+. $100 is about right for it. I think it'll be a good aftermarket set - much like the AT-AT.

    What are everyone's thoughts on the Cad Bane Speeder? Love the figs, but it's been hanging around TLG's clearance section for awhile now. Bounty hunters not named Fett don't seem to garner nearly as much value.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    ^ I like the Cad Bane Speeder. It's one of the sets I have two of. I love the Blue Republic Senate guards.
    In terms of secondary market value, maybe the figures might give it a lift?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ I hope you can make a profit if you got them at the discount price, because I bought several. But, yup... that it is still available is disconcerting.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited February 2012
    When Target had their online LEGO clearance during Nov/Dec of last year, the Cad Bane Speeder was the absolute last set to sell out at 50% off MSRP. It was the only set available for days and days after all of the other Atlantis and World Racers stuff finally sold out.

    I guess that means either:

    A) Target had a bazillion Speeders to dump (but they were selling at a good rate).
    B) It was a very undesirable set (and wasn't selling well even at half off).

    Just forwarding my notes!

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Will be interesting to see what it sells for at Christmas once they are out of stock. Right now each senate commando and Cad Bane are selling for around $10, and the ship for $15. So, just from that it looks like a person should at least make their money back if they got the set for $30. Getting it below retail may be the key, as it is with some sets.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I love Bane's hat. It reminds of the guy from Jeeper Creepers. Agreed on the Commandos, those are not available in many sets. Once retired, those could be $15-20 each, and thus being able to double $ on the set.

    The same question applies to the Bounty Hunter Assault Gunship. Still available - but to be retired soon I imagine. At the surface, a great aftermarket set, but could be a slow value gainer.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    It looks like the MMV has dropped in price on Amazon. Last I checked it was at $130, but now it is down to $120. May just be someone trying to unload some sets.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    It looks like the MMV has dropped in price on Amazon. Last I checked it was at $130, but now it is down to $120. May just be someone trying to unload some sets.
    By the time you figure in Amazon's fees that's pretty much a wash for a reseller. Why even bother reselling unless you can double your money?

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    By the time you figure in Amazon's fees that's pretty much a wash for a reseller. Why even bother reselling unless you can double your money?
    I agree completely...maybe they need the money or something; otherwise it doesn't make sense. I like the MMV, but it's time for it to go.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited February 2012
    Having just got back into Legos and seeing the ridiculous amounts that discontinued sets go for, I jumped on the bandwagon and bought the MMV set. My wife wasn't happy, but I told her that it was an "investment" and eventually will go up value since it's being discontinued. I'm not sure what it will be eventually worth. I'm not even sure I want to invest in Castles as a theme considering that there isn't even a proper castle currently available (I don't count Harry Potter). If you look at their current and future line-up, it appears that Lego has the Kingdoms series on "hold" in favor of LOTR. There's a chance that after MMV is gone that we won't see another "village" type set from Lego for awhile.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    By the time you figure in Amazon's fees that's pretty much a wash for a reseller. Why even bother reselling unless you can double your money?
    For a hobby reseller, you would be correct...

    For a professional reseller, cashflow is everything... Moving out older inventory, even if it gets replaced by the same inventory, but "newer" actually makes sense to a business.

    Also, consider that few serious resellers are paying retail prices. I bought most of my MMV from Target or Amazon at $90 or less, but I know that if I was willing to buy pallets of them, I can get them for $80 each delivered. I just don't care to play that game. For the sellers with millions of dollars in capital to invest, you can make money $10 per set on something like this, you just have to move a truckload of the stuff.

    Different animal to the hobby sellers.
    Amanda1983
  • weaponxdeadpoolweaponxdeadpool Member Posts: 4
    edited February 2012
    Out of the current crop of Large sets yet to be retired the best investments are:

    Diagon Alley
    MMV
    Black Pearl

    By carefully modeling trends we've calculated Diagon Alley to exceed up to 10 times its MSRP within 2 years of retirement.

    Making it quite possibly the best Lego investment of the 21st century.
    Black Pearl is a distant second...but you'll have to sell before another Pearl is released. And there will be a Pearl again. but not another Diagon Alley.
    MMV is also important to pick up.

    Avoid modulars, Tower Bridge and other non liscensed sets for the time being(except for maybe VW)
    Some tend to think that just because a set is big and cool, and limited, it obviously will be a good investment. Which it usually is! But, do you want to hit a homerun or bunt your way on base?

    I'd say put all your money into Diagon Alley but Lego is limiting how many you can buy. So, put all your money into Diagon Alley once every week.. lol.
    there are so many reasons, see for yourself how awesome the set is, regardless of the liscense, the 3 buildings are more charming than most of the modulars lego has made. And they fit good beneath a Christmas tree, better than the holiday sets, in fact.

    PS- dont use credit cards to buy Invest product unless you can pay your balance asap!!!
    thats my pro tip of the day.

    I do Math bio research at UPitt and have a phd in Applied Mathematics. I am pubished in several journals, and am considered a leader in my research. I eat bankers and investors for lunch. Yes, my math is sound, and Im giving advice that firms pay millions for. your welcome. good day,
    -your humble servant
    Stanhope
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited February 2012
    ^If Diagon Alley hits $1500 within two years of retirement, I will buy you a Coke.

    Though, I'm finding it difficult to tell if you're being serious or not.
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