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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    enotoga said:

    The sellers (many of them "average Joe's") that are offering the 92 Research Institutes at Ebay and the 63 Research Institutes at Amazon sure didn't face any "significant barriers to entry."

    If the presence of 155 recently sold out inexpensive small sets seems unsettling, you may be demonstrating one of barriers to entry I'm referring to. Is it safe to say that there are 3 Research Institutes being offered in each of the 50 United States. That doesn't sound like very many. I wonder how many bedrooms in the average 3/4 bedroom home it would take to store 155 Haunted Houses.



    Those sellers certainly did face significant barriers to entry, but they managed to surmount those barriers by virtue of timing. They didn't get 92 copies of RI because it was widely available...they got them because they got lucky and found themselves in a position to buy large quantities of the set.

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    goshe7 said:

    ^With pictures? I think there is indeed a lot of talk.

    I haven't seen pictures of those, but, in at least one instance, I think that the number was identified based on the seller's inventory that was available.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,269

    I wonder how many bedrooms in the average 3/4 bedroom home it would take to store 155 Haunted Houses.

    Based on the volume a 10 x 10 x 7 (ft) room can hold 853 Haunted houses.
    nkx1thenosDadFollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014
    For the average Joe who fell into the beanie baby or baseball card bubbles, there were warning signs all along the way. You'll see those same signs with Lego if and when we get into that space. Lego investing may remain stable for a very long time. Or we could see insanity take hold, and if that happens, I think it will be anything but boring.

    I do believe there is a significant barrier to entry for many of the more popular Lego lines. Anyone wishing to procure and store 100 copies of Pet Shop or Haunted House is going to need to need to commit $15,000, incur storage, handling, resale, and shipping costs. If that's not significant than I'm not sure what is. And never underestimate the Average Joe's passion for laziness.

    That's what I mean when I say Lego investing is in it's infancy. When any appreciable number of people undertake this kind of commitment, we'll all hear about it from major news sources. And Lego itself will see a huge surge in popularity directly attributable to this activity which will keep the train moving, for a while longer, leaving plenty of time to jump off - especially if you're in for the long haul.

    We're nowhere near anything that looks like a red flag at this point IMO. What is your biggest concern at this point?
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Couldn't disagree more, enotaga. The major media outlets are always the last with the news, and they are increasingly irrelevant in terms of how most people get their news and information. Although the mass media may be silent about Lego investing, the number of resellers and the number of sets being offered continues to grow, until at some point the number of resellers could be greater than the number of people willing to overpay for a retired set. At that point, the game will be over.

    I've been reselling online since the early days and have seen different markets for collectibles develop, overheat, and then crack. Before prices for other collectibles headed south, there were signs of growing competition and a glut of product. We're seeing the same thing with many Lego sets. Due to the fierce competition, the reseller's profits are falling, not rising. We are closer to the end of this cycle than we are the beginning. My best guess is that we are in or about the seventh inning.

    There will always be anomalies, like MF Zombies, which retired early, and manufacturer screw-ups like Research Institute, but those are the exception. The Lego investor is going to have an increasingly hard time making a buck in the years to come.





  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    enotoga said:

    .

    That's what I mean when I say Lego investing is in it's infancy. When any appreciable number of people undertake this kind of commitment, we'll all hear about it from major news sources.

    Boy, you set great store by the mass media, don't you? As for me, CBS knows nothing about my inventory and I plan to keep it that way.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Juggles7 - those are fair statements, and you've obviously been doing this for a long time. However let's look at a few recent examples over the past 12 months using just large sets. FireBrigade - retired up 100%, GE - sold out and up 50%, HH - sold out and up 50%. There are a ton of sets like Space Centre and Sopwith that are retired and sold out, up 30%-40%. These don't strike me as bubble or astronomical prices.

    If we take investing out of the picture, Lego itself is having a BOOM year. The movie was a huge success and the number of Lego fans keeps growing.

    You mention a glut of product - I've had to wait weeks to get Pet Shops. I couldn't get a Tumbler, EXO Suit, or RI. We may be in different markets but I'm not seeing a glut of product. I'm seeing Lego struggling to meet demand for it's products.

    Example - if you bought a Fire Bridage for $149 in October 2013, and you're willing to sell it today for a 50% profit ($225) you have No Competition. Fire Brigades are going for $300 on Ebay, so at $225 you'd have NO COMPETITION. That's not really fierce competition.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    juggles7 said:

    enotoga said:

    .

    That's what I mean when I say Lego investing is in it's infancy. When any appreciable number of people undertake this kind of commitment, we'll all hear about it from major news sources.

    Boy, you set great store by the mass media, don't you? As for me, CBS knows nothing about my inventory and I plan to keep it that way.
    I don't know what you mean by that, but I don't put any stock in conspiracy theories. You'd be surprised what people know.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    No conspiracy theories here, either. Just noticed that your ideas are largely influenced by what's being covered, or not covered, by mass media. I wouldn't rely on that if I were you.

    We disagreed about barriers to ENTRY. There is none to ENTRY, entry meaning just beginning, just getting started. Anyone who lives close enough to a Lego store can show up on a Monday morning (or Thursday in some places) and buy a Research Institute, and resell it on ebay or Amazon. No barrier, aside from the $20. And, yes, it would takes lots of money and storage space to invest in modulars, but that's not ENTRY, that's not just "getting started", that's swinging for the fences, with all its risks and rewards.

    Your examples of success stories don't say anything about the cost of doing business; the fees, the shipping costs, and the other resellers underselling you, forcing you to lower your price. That's getting worse all the time. And the glut of product that I mentioned is the sheer number of sets being offered for sale in the aftermarket at both ebay and Amazon.

    I can offer examples of sets that are doing nothing on the aftermarket, to counter your examples of success stories. But that doesn't sound like much fun. In general, the large, expensive sets are still working out, yes. That may be the last thing to go. And that will work until it doesn't. But I wouldn't be loading up on Kingdom Jousts if I were you...

  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2014
    ^I tend to agree with you that for the more expensive sets, for example $200 and up, the number of people reselling them might thin out quite a bit. It will be interesting to see how this all works out over the next 5+ years. I figure that on the worst-case end of the spectrum where resale prices take a dive (excluding catastrophic economic collapse or a fire at my house or something), if I only invest in the more expensive and very desirable sets, I will probably break even more or less.

    Based on the number of out-of-stock products currently, I agree that Lego is struggling to have its manufacturing capabilities meet product demand (there are worse problems to have, I suppose). From an armchair quarterback point of view, they need to increase manufacturing output capabilities or do a much better job of sales forcasting.

    Regarding the FB example: A $225 sale price for a $150 RRP set is unlikely to be a 50% profit unless you can sell the set on CL. If you use ebay, you'll need to deduct 13% for ebay/paypal fees, and you'll also need to ship the set for, let's say, $15. Doing the math, that's $180.75 net. Not taking into consideration VIP points or other insignificant percs, that's only a $30.75 profit at best. In my case, I would have had to pay sales tax (currently 8% in OC, California) on the $150 purchase price, so I would only net $18.75. And that net profit is not even including income taxes, which some people pay and some don't (another argument for another day).

    I guess my point is that for many people (like me), a $150 set will need to increase in value much more than 50 percent to make reselling worthwhile. An obvious exception to this is if you can buy the set at a discount (sometimes I can, other times not). Is the FB a worst case scenario for Lego resale, considering reseller hording of this set? Hard to say...
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Juggles7 - we have common ground on Kingdom Joust. Skipping that one for sure. I thought the Apple Tree House might be have been up a few bucks too, but no.

    nkx1 - my example on FB may not have been 100% accurate, but here's my point. The last NIB FB sold yesterday for $299 with free shipping. After shipping, Ebay and Paypal fees maybe the net to the seller was $250. That's a 40% profit I think. You could basically eliminate your competition by dropping your net percentage to 35%, but I'm not recommending that anybody sell FB at this point - I think it's a hold. Some might feel that 35% is a great 10 month return on investment.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    For larger set like Modulars, I think that anybody should wait to see at least a 100% ROI before selling. The length of time you're willing to wait to achieve that is a personal decision. But because of the classic and substantial nature of the Modular sets (as an example), I think at this point in the game there is very little risk in holding these sets. That could certainly change.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    Auction for a complete, used #10197 Fire Brigade on eBay Australia just closed, went for $382.88 + postage, which I found incredible for something that cost $250 new barely a year ago. I paid like $100 + $25 for parts and a manual for a SH set of my own about 18 months ago. Is it on its way to crazy GG, MS, and CC prices, despite how many extra people leapt on the reselling bandwagon in the meantime?
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    I would have to think a HUGE part of LEGOs marketing strategy would be ensuring the Christmas demand is able to be met? I see a lot of stories I the mainstream about concerns relating to Christmas supples and meeting demand. The manufacturing burden of the new Minecraft sets and Chima and Ninjago lines would surely take precedent while the Tumbler and Slave 1 are taking up UCS slots. The lack of other 'Big Ticket sets' will help Opera House and Architecture movements. I think a few we will see quite a few of these suspected EOL sets getting at least on more major run over the next 6 months.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133

    Auction for a complete, used #10197 Fire Brigade on eBay Australia just closed, went for $382.88 + postage, which I found incredible for something that cost $250 new barely a year ago. I paid like $100 + $25 for parts and a manual for a SH set of my own about 18 months ago. Is it on its way to crazy GG, MS, and CC prices, despite how many extra people leapt on the reselling bandwagon in the meantime?

    I think it's going to be extremely fun to find out the answer to that question, and the more patient we are the more fun it's likely to be. The funny thing is, back when FB retired it was almost 2014 and all the fears of the enormous legion of Lego investors was going full blast, and the set doubled in price in the USA in just 10 months. The number of NIB FB sets on Ebay seems to dropping by just a few each month. If that turns into a real trend.......we'll see big increases. If not, that's ok too.

    FollowsClosely
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    I wonder if the effect of large reseller inventories is being cancelled out by the fact that most resellers aren't offering theirs for sale until the price gets over a certain point, throttling supply and pushing up the price. I've got four or five stashed away myself and looking at market trends I'm certainly in no hurry to sell them. I mean how many resellers offload inventory the day after EOL? A week? 6 months? A year? Most are looking 2-3 years down the track. Since there's no more stock coming from Lego in the meantime, thin supply inflates the price. I'd predict that as rising prices cause more and more resellers come out of the woodwork, you'll see the market plateau at perhaps 50-75% of GG and CC values as those larger reseller inventories start to bite.
    TXLegoguyFollowsClosely
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Thing is, there are resellers that are glad with a 10% return. And, the other extreme, those that will hold out for a 200-300% return. So, it's near impossible to know how many are sitting in a closet and when they'll be put on eBay. Also, there's the aspect of holding onto a set another year. Not a big deal if it is less than 10. A huge deal if it is 100's.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    edited October 2014
    Given what the average returns are in the stock market, a fairly consistent 10% return is actually wonderful. At least with LEGO I have SOME understanding of the investment and there aren't large billion dollar hedge funds mucking the entire system up so that they can make money when everyone else is losing it. People just need to re-adjust their expectations and realize that for the time being, LEGO is still a fairly decent investment especially when compared to others (barriers to entry, knowledge of the product etc).

    100% returns are phenomenal, but not necessary for it to be considered a success IMHO.
    ThirdBuckEye
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    enotoga said:

    Auction for a complete, used #10197 Fire Brigade on eBay Australia just closed, went for $382.88 + postage, which I found incredible for something that cost $250 new barely a year ago. I paid like $100 + $25 for parts and a manual for a SH set of my own about 18 months ago. Is it on its way to crazy GG, MS, and CC prices, despite how many extra people leapt on the reselling bandwagon in the meantime?

    I think it's going to be extremely fun to find out the answer to that question, and the more patient we are the more fun it's likely to be. The funny thing is, back when FB retired it was almost 2014 and all the fears of the enormous legion of Lego investors was going full blast, and the set doubled in price in the USA in just 10 months. The number of NIB FB sets on Ebay seems to dropping by just a few each month. If that turns into a real trend.......we'll see big increases. If not, that's ok too.

    that my fried is the reseller effect. the mad rush right at the EOL pushing the price of the set is what's happening these days because of the flippers and resellers.

    as for myself, i thought that SSD was such a bad seller just like B-wing that it would get on sale but apparently reseller effect made it go away so fast. TRU still had loads from 2011.

    if it were normal times then most of these exclusives would get on sale and/or reduction in price from LEGO but now forget that. just a slight wind/mention on a particular website will wipe out inventory of major retailers within few days in US.

    FB probably was the start of the transition so may be many were hesitant. but look @ future, GE, TH, SSD or simply exo-suit, RI, GB .. the number of listing on amazon in US itself should be a hint that there are many more new comers that are testing water.

    over 100s sellers on exclusives that's in my book is huge.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Every time somebody says "Fire Brigade!!" I feel obligated to retort "MMV." DA has been slower than expected, so was IF for that matter, HD and GE will be the same. I think a lot of folks looking at the longer term prospects of "Lego investing" began dumping their FBs anticipating MMV/DS scenarios, and by thus preparing to get out of the game entirely depleted the legendary deep supplies. So no, I don't believe that FB's performance is any indication of a stalwart aftermarket.

    My budget used to be split 50/50 between sets to hold and sets to part out, now it's closer to 10/90. Very few sets are worth holding anymore, and you have to hold for longer. Plus Ebay and Paypal are making it terribly easy for scammers. So if you're okay with dwindling returns between the increased competition on one side and swindlers on the other, more power to you. Hobbyists will be alright overall, but they'll be getting less and less for the few sets they choose to stow away, not to mention that getting ripped off once or twice pretty much wipes out any gains. But whatever, let the rose-goggled keep laying in, I'll err (if at all) on the side of caution. Buying Lego is easy and fun, selling it is hard and gets harder the more you rely on the income, and merely talking about selling Lego is a poor substitute for actually doing it.
    Thanos75Dadstarwarfan77Dougoutcloaked7prevere
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I agree, if you're doing it to rely on the income it's not the best idea. I don't and never will do it for a steady income stream. For me it is simply a great way to pay for the hobby and make a decent extra amount of income on the side to boot.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Everyone always points to the sets that have performed well in the aftermarket, but no one ever talks about the low performing sets. What about the B-wings or Obi-Wan Starfighters? Not much of LOTR had great returns. Technic usually doesn't do too well. Most sets that appreciate well into the aftermarket, like SSD, have limited supply with a good demand. FB has good demand, but because there is so much supply the price won't rise as fast. It's all about supply and demand and with more and more people jumping into reselling, the supply will only increase leading to lower returns.

    It's also true that eBay and Paypal are taking more money each year while letting their sellers take all the risk. TLG themselves are taking more and more power from resellers and retailers. Good luck buying 100s of exclusives without getting banned in the future.

    Picking lots of guaranteed "winners", avoiding all the losers, constantly looking for deals, buying at the right times, getting cheap as possible prices, purchasing enough packing materials, protecting Legos in storage for years, listing your sets at the right times, handling all customer services issues, avoiding scammers, being forced to compete by eBay, packing sets with care, accepting all TLG's rules. It's really not as lucrative as it seems when looking at what recently retired Lego sets are worth now and what they were being sold for 3 months ago. There are tons of hidden fees. It is really only worth it to the hobbyist and even then it is a lot of work. I am sticking to 2-5 sets from here on out.

    If I could go back and prevent myself from buying heavy into Lego, I definitely would. It is too time consuming even if you pick 100% winners. The knowledge you learn from Lego investing is really a niche thing that will not apply to many aspects in the rest of your life. Unless you plan to be an economist or toy marketer, it may be much more beneficial to spend your time learning about engineering.
    nkx1cloaked7juggles7BrickarmorBuriedinBricks
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    Generally I think the aftermarket is in for a long, slow decline, but they'll still be sets worth investing in and there'll still be money to be made. I don't trade in volumes anywhere near high enough to actually make it really worth my while; based on how much work I put in I must make like $2 an hour or something, and the trade off is I have to live in a 4x5 meter room boxed in by 20k worth of Lego, but as a Lego fan I can't stand to feel like I've 'missed out' on a set. I don't know if anyone else feels the same way, but for me one of the main benefits of investing is to feel like I've got a slice of the action, that I'm not the poor chump who has to shell out half a used car for 3 kilos of coveted plastic.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    edited October 2014
    Also worth noting is that MMV and DA were from lines marketed to children. This applies to Star Wars sets as well, but the average age of the Star Wars fanbase is considerably older than that of Harry Potter. I think as long as you're buying sets marketed to adults from lines marketed to adults you'll find it hard to go wrong. I mean, it's clear that the adult fanbase for the Modular houses, for instance, is considerably larger and more enthusiastic than the adult fanbase for Harry Potter or Castle, regardless of how nice the sets are. I think anyone investing seriously in MMV badly (and avoidably) misjudged the nature of the Lego aftermarket.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014

    Every time somebody says "Fire Brigade!!" I feel obligated to retort "MMV."

    I can't see any similarities between FB and MMV so I would expect a big difference in performance, but I agree with you that Ebay can sometimes pose problems - but what a market! What scam do you feel threatened by the most? In some respects I think it's healthy for Ebay to shake people out of the game - it's a jungle as it should be.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133

    I don't know if anyone else feels the same way, but for me one of the main benefits of investing is to feel like I've got a slice of the action, that I'm not the poor chump who has to shell out half a used car for 3 kilos of coveted plastic.

    I feel exactly the same way. I'll never own more than 10 copies of any given set and probably never more than 100 total sets. Small time - fun, collecting, and extra cash. At this scale, it an exciting little stock market.

  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Dougout said:

    If I could go back and prevent myself from buying heavy into Lego, I definitely would. It is too time consuming even if you pick 100% winners. The knowledge you learn from Lego investing is really a niche thing that will not apply to many aspects in the rest of your life. Unless you plan to be an economist or toy marketer, it may be much more beneficial to spend your time learning about engineering.

    I often think the same thing (going back in time and not buying every Lego set I could find at a discount for resale). I go back and fourth with myself whether or not I should bother reselling. Sometimes it seems like a lot of work with little reward for the reasons mentioned by you and others. However, other times I look at sets like IF #10210, QAR #4195, BP #4184, EN #10194 etc and think that if I can only pick big winners like this, it would be well worth my time.

    Lately, I've been thinking I might just load up on one or two sets per year (for example 10-20 Tower Bridges this year). That would seem to streamline packing and listing quite a bit, hopefully wouldn't take a ton of time overall if there are only 10-20 sets to sell, and would probably net a halfway decent profit after a couple of years.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Changing topic here for a moment, there was a lot of talk in this thread about how the #10197 Fire Brigade was vastly overstocked, resellers had warehouses full of them, it had been out for too long, and so on. But anyone who bought them for investment purposes has to happy about where the market for that set is at the moment.

    I have to raise my hand here. I honestly am surprised at how fast Fire Brigade has gone up. I sold all my copies months ago at $250, thinking it would hit a wall there, maybe going to $300 by Christmas, then drop in the new year, rising to $350 by next Christmas.

    How little did I know...

    Now, does this mean the next one should be hoarded? Meh, Fire Brigade is a fire house, that is special and those are always in demand. They won't do another one again for a long time, if ever. Pet Shop? Town Hall? Those could be done again in something close enough to not matter.

    I'm split on those to be honest, but I'd bet on Pet Shop over Town Hall any day of the week, however that being said, it is the obvious choice, Town Hall might surprise.

    What can I say? My Magic 8 ball is on the fritz! :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited October 2014
    I've been selling on eBay for over 15 years. The comments mentioning higher fees and more rules and more fraud are dead one. When I first started people paid me with cashier's checks. And, LEGO's were always on sale somewhere. We ain't in Kansas any more! :-) The fun of reselling is gone now that there are more 'hassles'. I'm selling all that I can this Christmas and not stocking back up. Personally I wish I were already out of the LEGO reselling business.
    juggles7LegoFanTexas
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,023
    I have yet to unload any of my FBs. The pile is getting ripe though! Christmas 2015 I will sell off half.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,438
    I'm very surprised at a lot of the comments here. It almost as if saying one thing and doing another hoping people get out of the biz, so they can possibly stay in and clean up. I have had no trouble selling sets recently on Ebay. I was actually surprised at some of the crap I sold over the last few weeks. Everyone seems to have their own selling model. Some wait 2-3 for sets to mature before they sell. Some are quick flippers. Some do both. You cannot forget the parts and Minifigure sellers. The market is not as strong, but it certainly isn't dead.

    I do have to agree that for every winner, there are losers, but that's an obvious observation. What this thread lacks at times, is talking about the losers and what other sets NOT to invest in.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Well, there was a lot of discussion some time ago on how FB was going to do poorly since it had been out so long and resellers had loaded up. The point is that we can speculate, but at the end of the day nobody really knows.

    Now that I said that, I think Legend of Chima is a loser theme and will do poorly. ;-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,438

    Changing topic here for a moment, there was a lot of talk in this thread about how the #10197 Fire Brigade was vastly overstocked, resellers had warehouses full of them, it had been out for too long, and so on. But anyone who bought them for investment purposes has to happy about where the market for that set is at the moment.

    I have to raise my hand here. I honestly am surprised at how fast Fire Brigade has gone up. I sold all my copies months ago at $250, thinking it would hit a wall there, maybe going to $300 by Christmas, then drop in the new year, rising to $350 by next Christmas.

    How little did I know...

    Now, does this mean the next one should be hoarded? Meh, Fire Brigade is a fire house, that is special and those are always in demand. They won't do another one again for a long time, if ever. Pet Shop? Town Hall? Those could be done again in something close enough to not matter.

    I'm split on those to be honest, but I'd bet on Pet Shop over Town Hall any day of the week, however that being said, it is the obvious choice, Town Hall might surprise.

    What can I say? My Magic 8 ball is on the fritz! :)
    ...and my crystal ball has a, huge crack in it ;)

    I'm with you on the Fire Brigade, but what I did was not panic and I kept all my FB's I'm lucky, that's all it is. I got everyone on sale too. If they are going for $350 around Christmas; that would be great, but who knows?

    I enjoyed putting the Fire Brigade together and when I had it on display at my home; that was all my daughter and nephew (when he was visiting) would play with. It is a great set, but I had no idea it would be going for what it is today.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,438

    ^Well, there was a lot of discussion some time ago on how FB was going to do poorly since it had been out so long and resellers had loaded up. The point is that we can speculate, but at the end of the day nobody really knows.

    Now that I said that, I think Legend of Chima is a loser theme and will do poorly. ;-)

    Oh yes, I remember all the speculation about the Fire Brigade. I was part of all of that as well. I even posted that I offered all my FB's to my dad at RRP before FB retired snd my dad declined ;)



    Farmer_John
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    An interesting thing to do is track availability of GE and FB on Ebay to see what the current supply looks like. I'm using the following search terms for GE - Grand Emporium NIB Lego - current total = 101. For FB I'm using - Fire Brigade NIB Lego - current total = 86. We'll see how the supply changes over time.
    prevere
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^That might give you a general idea, but only in very relative terms. You could be missing quite a few listings. For instance, I've never used "NIB" in my listings.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 929
    ^ Snap, just the word new and sealed is enough for me, I hate all these acronyms lol!
  • xeeeejxeeeej Member Posts: 71

    Changing topic here for a moment, there was a lot of talk in this thread about how the #10197 Fire Brigade was vastly overstocked, resellers had warehouses full of them, it had been out for too long, and so on. But anyone who bought them for investment purposes has to happy about where the market for that set is at the moment.

    I have to raise my hand here. I honestly am surprised at how fast Fire Brigade has gone up. I sold all my copies months ago at $250, thinking it would hit a wall there, maybe going to $300 by Christmas, then drop in the new year, rising to $350 by next Christmas.

    How little did I know...

    Now, does this mean the next one should be hoarded? Meh, Fire Brigade is a fire house, that is special and those are always in demand. They won't do another one again for a long time, if ever. Pet Shop? Town Hall? Those could be done again in something close enough to not matter.

    I'm split on those to be honest, but I'd bet on Pet Shop over Town Hall any day of the week, however that being said, it is the obvious choice, Town Hall might surprise.

    What can I say? My Magic 8 ball is on the fritz! :)
    I thought you were getting out of the game?
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342

    I thought you were getting out of the game?


    " Just when i think i am out, they drag me back in again" ( Michael Corleone)

    juggles7BillybrowndougtsspicemindDougoutLegoFanTexasGothamConstructionCo
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133


    I thought you were getting out of the game?

    " Just when i think i am out, they drag me back in again" ( Michael Corleone)



    LOL!
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm very surprised at a lot of the comments here. It almost as if saying one thing and doing another hoping people get out of the biz, so they can possibly stay in and clean up. I have had no trouble selling sets recently on Ebay. I was actually surprised at some of the crap I sold over the last few weeks. Everyone seems to have their own selling model. Some wait 2-3 for sets to mature before they sell. Some are quick flippers. Some do both. You cannot forget the parts and Minifigure sellers. The market is not as strong, but it certainly isn't dead.

    I do have to agree that for every winner, there are losers, but that's an obvious observation. What this thread lacks at times, is talking about the losers and what other sets NOT to invest in.

    I may have came across as overly negative about the current reselling process. My thoughts were primarily due to my personal comparisons of how eBay & LEGO used to be vs how they are now. And, what the future trend appears to be. Sure, eBay is still a viable way to sell stuff and given the number of potential buyers you can definitely sell an item on eBay for more than you could in a yard sale. My point was that the hassles, requirements, and fees are now greater. The profit margin, deals, and fun are now smaller. Each person much weigh all of that for themselves and at some point it may no longer be 'worth' it, considering the time, money, storage space, etc. required to turn what you consider an appropriate profit.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm very surprised at a lot of the comments here. It almost as if saying one thing and doing another hoping people get out of the biz, so they can possibly stay in and clean up.

    That would be nice, but it's far too late for that. Nor would I waste my time even trying to do that. When others post their rosy projections here I think they need to be countered, just as a public service to those who might be considering taking up Lego reselling. A word of advice: don't quit your day job.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    I appreciate everybody's comments - both bullish and bearish. There are many ways to skin this cat so all the info is helpful. Please don't take things personally or feel like there's a nefarious motive - we're passionate about this stuff or we wouldn't be watching this board. Everybody's got something to teach and something to learn.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    I wonder if the effect of large reseller inventories is being cancelled out by the fact that most resellers aren't offering theirs for sale until the price gets over a certain point, throttling supply and pushing up the price. I've got four or five stashed away myself and looking at market trends I'm certainly in no hurry to sell them. I mean how many resellers offload inventory the day after EOL? A week? 6 months? A year? Most are looking 2-3 years down the track. Since there's no more stock coming from Lego in the meantime, thin supply inflates the price. I'd predict that as rising prices cause more and more resellers come out of the woodwork, you'll see the market plateau at perhaps 50-75% of GG and CC values as those larger reseller inventories start to bite.

    I usually get rid 6 - 12 Months post EOL
    pharmjod said:

    Given what the average returns are in the stock market, a fairly consistent 10% return is actually wonderful. At least with LEGO I have SOME understanding of the investment and there aren't large billion dollar hedge funds mucking the entire system up so that they can make money when everyone else is losing it. People just need to re-adjust their expectations and realize that for the time being, LEGO is still a fairly decent investment especially when compared to others (barriers to entry, knowledge of the product etc).

    100% returns are phenomenal, but not necessary for it to be considered a success IMHO.

    Depends on perception of whats a good return, commitment to reselling etc. I keep below the 20% VAT threshold, so for me I wouldn't get out of bed on a 10% return. If I can hit 50% - 100% net then that's good. But I
    juggles7 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm very surprised at a lot of the comments here. It almost as if saying one thing and doing another hoping people get out of the biz, so they can possibly stay in and clean up.

    That would be nice, but it's far too late for that. Nor would I waste my time even trying to do that. When others post their rosy projections here I think they need to be countered, just as a public service to those who might be considering taking up Lego reselling. A word of advice: don't quit your day job.

    Ok I won't quite my day job of making £25,000 nett per finanacial year on lego.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Wont't let me edit any of the above, some of it wasn't finished. There is still plenty of money to made on reselling, with good research, time and money to build on. When folk dampen down reselling potential it reminds me of an oil company I invested in. There was panic selling, negative comments etc, but I bought in and now stand at 5 x my original purchase. I tend to do the opposite.
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342

    I tend to do the opposite.

    I agree, better to be a Shepherd than a sheep!

    Unless the price of Lamb falls through the floor that is!

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Not sure a falling price for lamb is good for the sheep either. :-) I'd prefer to never be the sheep.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2014
    ^^Well, the Shepard can always eat the sheep, although it might get tiresome eating sheep after while.
    minicoopers11
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    I never understood the mint sauce with a rack of lamb...
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