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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    prevere said:

    Maybe we'll see a 1980s-something Fabuland character in the second movie with a speaking part. That would be sweet. Complete with a loose fitting head that always faces down.

    I would like to see interactions between Fabuland and Chima characters discussing their similarities and differences

    prevere
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349

    I'm really annoyed. All month long I've wanted to order TH, but I decided to wait until the 15th because of their decision to not release the promo set for the first half of the month. When the 15th finally came around, the website crashed and was down all day, meaning I couldn't order as planned. A day later, the site is back online and the set is OOS. Pissed right off at that.

    I'm putting my order through regardless, it's giving a ship date of November 4th so hopefully this is a temporary shortage.

    @Steve_J_OM‌ where are you located? Try calling the Lego stores, they might ship it out to you.

  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,411
    prevere said:

    Maybe we'll see a 1980s-something Fabuland character in the second movie with a speaking part. That would be sweet. Complete with a loose fitting head that always faces down.

    I hadnt even thought of that but now you've put the idea in my head it must happen!
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 961
    edited October 2014
    Dad said:

    I'm really annoyed. All month long I've wanted to order TH, but I decided to wait until the 15th because of their decision to not release the promo set for the first half of the month. When the 15th finally came around, the website crashed and was down all day, meaning I couldn't order as planned. A day later, the site is back online and the set is OOS. Pissed right off at that.

    I'm putting my order through regardless, it's giving a ship date of November 4th so hopefully this is a temporary shortage.

    Annoyed with yourself or [email protected]?
    With the situation in general. In hindsight I might have ordered it earlier when I saw what had happened in the US, but I didn't want the hassle of eBay for the promo. Being locked out of [email protected] on the first available day - why we had to wait until midway through the month is beyond me - and missing out as a result is just grating.
    nkx1 said:

    I'm putting my order through regardless, it's giving a ship date of November 4th so hopefully this is a temporary shortage.

    How do you do that? A [email protected] representative I spoke with recently said I couldn't order HH via phone (when sold out online), so I can't imagine TH would be any different.
    On the European [email protected] It seems to be on back order rather than sold out, which brings me to...



    I say if you only saw it as out of stock or back order, it is far better than 'sold out' where you cannot even order it. So late vs not available, I would take 'late'.

    True, so long as the order is fulfilled I'll certainly take late over never.
    EKSam said:

    @Steve_J_OM‌ where are you located? Try calling the Lego stores, they might ship it out to you.

    Alas no brand store has reached our shores yet.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^Can't you just buy TH from Amazon.fr, Amazon.de or Amazon.it now that it's in stock* there?

    *Shipping October 28th
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Almost dead certain TH will be back. Production lines are simply busy pumping out Xmas best seller's and 2015 sets, they can't just halt all that for one set. I don't have a "source," just common sense. I wouldn't go into panic buying mode unless you absolutely had to have one for your personal collection.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    Shipping date for TH keeps slipping. I'm wondering if this is going to follow the pattern of the HH and SSD and in short order display 'Sold Out', or whether TLG have no plans to discontinue it and it's purely the expectation that they will which has left them short of stock.
  • pumperxpumperx Member Posts: 106
    6860 is probably done, what do you guys think?
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    pumperx said:

    6860 is probably done, what do you guys think?

    'Probably' is putting it mildly. Showing up as retired on [email protected] everywhere outside the US.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    Shipping date for TH keeps slipping. I'm wondering if this is going to follow the pattern of the HH and SSD and in short order display 'Sold Out', or whether TLG have no plans to discontinue it and it's purely the expectation that they will which has left them short of stock.

    [email protected] USA does display 'Sold Out.'

    GE had just sold out and everyone (including me) assumed TH would be available for at least another several months to a year. And because there wasn't any expectation that TH was going to sell out as soon after the GE as it did, there was no rush to get it. But I do think it's done. I only hope that TLG has another modular in the queue to replace the two that were just EOL'd.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    pumperx said:

    6860 is probably done, what do you guys think?

    It hasn't been available in the UK for ages.
  • LeonCLeonC United KingdomMember Posts: 364
    So what about Pet Shop? Its also showing as OOS shipping Nov & I assumed it would go before TH as its older, but with all the panic on here over TH I plumped for getting that first and now I wonder whether PS will go and I'll miss it?
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    edited October 2014
    finally #10223 KJ listed with "Call to check product availabilty..." [email protected] europe

    wow: That are really many exclusiv sets retiring this year. Can't belive it...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    LeonC said:

    So what about Pet Shop? Its also showing as OOS shipping Nov & I assumed it would go before TH as its older, but with all the panic on here over TH I plumped for getting that first and now I wonder whether PS will go and I'll miss it?

    I think PS and PC will be out of stock before December. I just wish I hadn't bought some of the current modulars out of order.
  • drlmiles1drlmiles1 UKMember Posts: 191
    Why do some people think PC is near EOL - it's not even 2 years old. (I've not bought one yet!)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    drlmiles1 said:

    Why do some people think PC is near EOL - it's not even 2 years old. (I've not bought one yet!)

    He's probably thinking that it will be a hot Christmas gift this year. I tend to agree. The Palace Cinema is a popular modular (currently the only one I own) and it will be even more popular with Town Hall, Grand Emporium and possibly Pet Shop being scarce.
    pharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Personally, I think of the most recent modulars the TH is the least popular of the lot. I remember a lot of negative talk about TH when it first came out PLUS it's the most expensive modular to date. The most interest I've ever seen in the TH has occurred since TLG decided to EOL it.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,844
    ^Yeah I wouldn't be surprised at all if they decided to keep Pet Shop over the Town Hall. PS almost certainly outsells it (outside of panic EOL buying) so it would be sensible to keep the better seller longer.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,061
    'Sold out' and 'out of stock...' are two very separate things for LEGO IMO, but people use them interchangeably which causes confusion.
    Out of stock to me implies more to come, but right now none in the warehouse. Sold out can mean gone completely.
    I think it can be said that a lot of LEGO sets tend to become out of stock around the holidays. The question is will that generate a feeding frenzy for the sets that cannot be found before Christmas?
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452

    'Sold out' and 'out of stock...' are two very separate things for LEGO IMO, but people use them interchangeably which causes confusion.

    Don't blame the people. Blame Lego for using them interchangeably. They're showing the series 12 minifigures as sold out, although, by your definition, they're simply out of stock. Likewise for the series 5 Friends Animals. It's Lego that's causing the confusion.

    TXLegoguy
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup. LEGO's inventory statuses are all over the place, very confusing, some seem to mean the same thing or overlap in meaning, and sometimes a set will 'come back from the dead'. So confusing to almost being meaningless and un-useful. Also, the Retiring Soon status is completely skipped for most sets. I wonder if it is still used?
    TXLegoguy
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    edited October 2014
    the next one:
    BTTF set #21103 listed with "Call to check product availabilty..." [email protected] europe
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    In just recent memory, Batcave and GE were "Sold Out" on US [email protected] for various durations, only to be restocked. I'm sure there are more examples. It happens every year around this time.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I haven't noticed it being limited to seasonality, or any time of year. They have prematurely applied the "sold out" label to past minifigure series, to the second series Mixels, to the Catwoman Catcycle, and to Architecture Willis Tower. All those items came "back from the dead" and the dates ranged throughout the calendar year.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    My hh just shipped :)
    FollowsClosely
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    Wow...that was pretty fast. The HH I got from Amazon just got delivered.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    cloaked7 said:

    ^ Also, the Retiring Soon status is completely skipped for most sets. I wonder if it is still used?

    No need to wonder. Just go to [email protected] and type "retiring soon" in the search engine. They only seem to use it to sell slow-moving items, like anything Chima-related. It's probably a marketing ploy.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    I just got the Lego Holiday 2014 catalog in my mailbox this week. There was a two page spread on the modulars and interestingly, both GE and TH were missing. They only showed PS, PC, and PR.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    All my five #10221's were cancelled, bought 4 from Bricklink for a slightly higher price. Bit annoyed but if you've missed the bottom of a market I guess it shouldn't put you off from buying on the upswing.

    On a side note, TRU Australia have 20% off the #21103 Cuusoo DeLorean. I've put in an order for two but I wonder whether it's worth increasing that based on the fact it's now Call to Check on [email protected] If it retires before the end of this year, what are its prospects?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    ^ The jury's split on this one. Personally I think it will do fine but wouldn't have paid rrp.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    Changing topic here for a moment, there was a lot of talk in this thread about how the #10197 Fire Brigade was vastly overstocked, resellers had warehouses full of them, it had been out for too long, and so on. But anyone who bought them for investment purposes has to happy about where the market for that set is at the moment. Are the other modulars thought to be retiring soon (PS, GE, TH), despite large reseller inventories also going to be worth getting 10-20 units each? If I had to make a prediction on how they were going to go relative to the FB, I should think that the GE and PS will do at least as well, and assuming it actually is on the way out the TH may even do considerably better owing to the higher price, large size and piece count, and (possibly) shorter lifespan.
  • drlmiles1drlmiles1 UKMember Posts: 191
    There are more and more people getting into Lego, and a fair number of those AFOLs will look for a while at the expensive modulars, and then eventually be tempted to buy one. Once they have bought one, they will be hooked. This describes me. I bought PS & GE, then decided I was going to get as many as possible. GG & CC were far too pricey, but FB was available at a modest premium from eBay. If the new detective modular is attractive and popular (and we should be seeing what it is like soon) then there will be a surge of modular buying in the new year. Newly retired modulars (? GE & PS) should do well, although I think it will take a lot longer for TH to appreciate in value (IMHO)
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    Personally I think TH is an underrated set, it's effectively the centerpiece of any serious Modular collection. It's a bit boxy but that dark orange on white colourscheme and the sheer scale of it make it seriously worthwhile. And if it retires now it'll take a lot of people by surprise, and limit the available aftermarket volume.
    Bumblepantsjasor
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    I'm that confident TH will be back I'm not bothering to stock up yet. GE on the other hand...
    TXLegoguy
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2014
    m

    Personally I think TH is an underrated set, it's effectively the centerpiece of any serious Modular collection. It's a bit boxy but that dark orange on white colourscheme and the sheer scale of it make it seriously worthwhile. And if it retires now it'll take a lot of people by surprise, and limit the available aftermarket volume.

    It is not underrated but appears as over priced IMO. I think people see 199.99 USD and do ont care about price per part, it is near that 200 mark
    This is what will keep people from buying them when available via retailers and cause the secondary price to jump, even with speculators buying many. Heck look at its price on eBay (at least in the US) even though many think it will be back.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    What are peoples expectations for #10228 - interested in 12 month time frame..

    One of my friends has 7 and he asked me what I thought and (TBH) I don't really know!

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Disagree. Consumers in the know will snap them up now that the "eol scare" has happened. 200 may be steep for the consumer, but if they think they ever might want the set, they'll wisely grab one at retail (if they get a chance) rather than pay 300 or more for one later. The price point will no longer keep people from buying them when (and if) available from retailers. That was then, this is now.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited October 2014

    What are peoples expectations for #10228 - interested in 12 month time frame..

    One of my friends has 7 and he asked me what I thought and (TBH) I don't really know!

    Well seeing as they have 7....I think they already have a good idea of how they will do ;-)

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Yep....that extra $50 made a difference I'm sure, for TH sales. I believe that 3-4 years after retirement if you can hold that long, you'll be looking at a $500-$600 set. My admittedly primitive research tells me that the average Joe is light years away from investing in Lego - we haven't even scratched the surface yet. There are significant barriers to entry. By the time Taxi drivers start telling you to buy the Death Star, we'll still have a couple good years left.

    Edgar......I've been looking for some discounted DeLoreans. I think those and VW Vans are going to be great investments and easy to store.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^I think you're right that there is currently little threat from the average Joe investing in Lego. However, as the years progress and Lego makes more and more sets (600+ per year recently), future buyers of after market sets will have a profuse number of sets to choose from. That alone may slow the sales of individual aftermarket sets, as the demand for any one set may be slowly diluted year after year. Of course, there are only a small number of large and desirable sets released each year, but the same principle might apply.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014
    That's a good point. I'm amazed at the number of sets currently available - all sizes. Today I stumbled across the Hobbit Ultimate Kit. I never knew it existed. I think my strategy is to stay with the classics whenever possible. Classic themes.
  • msandersmsanders Member Posts: 1,005
    #10223 kingdoms joust is call to check availability on the UK lego shop. On its way out? It's such a lovely set
    Pitfall69
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    enotoga said:

    My admittedly primitive research tells me that the average Joe is light years away from investing in Lego - we haven't even scratched the surface yet. There are significant barriers to entry.

    The sellers (many of them "average Joe's") that are offering the 92 Research Institutes at Ebay and the 63 Research Institutes at Amazon sure didn't face any "significant barriers to entry."
  • AsterickedAstericked Member Posts: 36
    For anyone in or around Nashville looking for a Town Hall, I went to the store today, and the TH display was taken down, and there were none on the shelf. So I assumed I wasn't going to be able to find one, then a clerk asked me if he could help me find anything, and I jokingly said "Yeah a Town Hall"...To my surprise, he grabbed one from the back and said he got a small shipment in on Thursday, but are limited to 1 per person, and he thinks it'll be gone soon. So luckily, I was able to get one! :)
    Renny
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452

    What are peoples expectations for #10228 - interested in 12 month time frame..

    One of my friends has 7 and he asked me what I thought and (TBH) I don't really know!

    This post shows that the average Joe is already investing in Lego.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    juggles7 said:

    What are peoples expectations for #10228 - interested in 12 month time frame..

    One of my friends has 7 and he asked me what I thought and (TBH) I don't really know!

    This post shows that the average Joe is already investing in Lego.
    And the non-average Joe is going f'ing crazy...although they are simply anecdotal, I have heard talk on other message boards about people putting away 300+ copies of the VW T1 van and 100+ copies of Town Hall.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    ^With pictures? I think there is indeed a lot of talk.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    The sellers (many of them "average Joe's") that are offering the 92 Research Institutes at Ebay and the 63 Research Institutes at Amazon sure didn't face any "significant barriers to entry."


    If the presence of 155 recently sold out inexpensive small sets seems unsettling, you may be demonstrating one of barriers to entry I'm referring to. Is it safe to say that there are 3 Research Institutes being offered in each of the 50 United States. That doesn't sound like very many. I wonder how many bedrooms in the average 3/4 bedroom home it would take to store 155 Haunted Houses.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133


    juggles7 said:

    What are peoples expectations for #10228 - interested in 12 month time frame..

    One of my friends has 7 and he asked me what I thought and (TBH) I don't really know!

    This post shows that the average Joe is already investing in Lego.
    And the non-average Joe is going f'ing crazy...although they are simply anecdotal, I have heard talk on other message boards about people putting away 300+ copies of the VW T1 van and 100+ copies of Town Hall.


    The research I've done focuses on the volume of information available on the internet to people seeking info on Lego investing. It's miniscule. Aside from a very small group of people who love Lego and populate great sites like this one, there is nothing out there. None of the major media outlets, except USA Today a few years ago have even touched the subject. This ride hasn't even started yet IMO. It will have a cycle like others we've seen. But I believe we're in the infancy of Lego investing.

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    enotoga said:

    The research I've done focuses on the volume of information available on the internet to people seeking info on Lego investing. It's miniscule. Aside from a very small group of people who love Lego and populate great sites like this one, there is nothing out there. None of the major media outlets, except USA Today a few years ago have even touched the subject. This ride hasn't even started yet IMO. It will have a cycle like others we've seen. But I believe we're in the infancy of Lego investing.

    We'll see, but I think that the secondary market is going to shift dramatically over the next few years. If you have the money and believe that the past performance of already retired sets is a reliable indicator of how similar sets will perform in the future, buying 100 copies of one of those sets is a no-brainer. The only problem is that there is no way for any of us to reliably gauge the depth of the secondary market demand for sets either now or in the future. Sure, there are various data points you can pull together based on the marketplaces that make sales figures publicly available in one form or another, but all of the data that I have seen clearly indicates that demand is not a bottomless pit. As a result, it will only take a small group of people in the "no-brainer" crowd sitting on 100 copies of a set to skew secondary market pricing dramatically when they begin to realize that the pot of gold they thought they would be sitting on is not quite so valuable.

    If Lego investing is in its infancy, the whole endeavor is going to be pretty boring by the time it reaches maturity with very few of the breakaway hits of today and yesteryear.
    TXLegoguy
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