Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Farmer_John

^Now that you bring it up, I was talking to my wife yesterday about the EN. I LOVE that set. To me it's the best Lego train set ever made. TLG could make some serious bucks (from me at least) releasing a bunch of older style trains.

That said, they probably just print the instruction files without any thought of updating the adds. Now if there's an error in the building instructions, that's another story...

prevere

A bunch of different train styles for $75 a pop (engine), and $30 for cars....yup that would fly off the shelves. A rekindling of "My Own Train" theme...

Pitfall69

Did "My Own Train" sell very well? I only bought the "Hopper" car. I love trains very much and almost every train in a must buy for me.

I heard they are making "Ghostbusters 3" and this time it will be female ghostBusters. This will make @tamamahm‌ happy I'm sure ;) I can see this as a replacement for Monster Fighters (if Lego makes any sets for the movie). The movie will also draw interest in the current Lego Ghostbusters set.

tamamahm

LOL! If it is done well, I would be happy, but it is really hard to surpass or equal the first movie. The second movie couldn't do it, but a well done revamp would be nice. Revamps are often hit and miss, though.
I do not to see Lego doing sets based on it.

prevere

Pitfall69 said:

Did "My Own Train" sell very well? I only bought the "Hopper" car. I love trains very much and almost every train in a must buy for me.

I don't know, but they are really nice. Most of the current trains are somewhat generic and made for universal use (kids and adults), but an advanced line of detailed trains (akin to the modulars) would be fabulous ... and insanely popular.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

Did "My Own Train" sell very well? I only bought the "Hopper" car. I love trains very much and almost every train in a must buy for me.

I heard they are making "Ghostbusters 3" and this time it will be female ghostBusters. This will make @tamamahm‌ happy I'm sure ;) I can see this as a replacement for Monster Fighters (if Lego makes any sets for the movie). The movie will also draw interest in the current Lego Ghostbusters set.

The Tanker was the first to sell out. The rest? They were put on sale a lot. Great idea but LEGO was charging too much for them for what they were, they did not even come with any figure(s). They were solely just cars, which also explains why LEGO is not doing just train cars now and you only get them if you buy a set.

dougts

prevere said:

Pitfall69 said:

Did "My Own Train" sell very well? I only bought the "Hopper" car. I love trains very much and almost every train in a must buy for me.

an advanced line of detailed trains (akin to the modulars) would be .... and insanely popular.

I know this premise is promoted a lot by AFOL and LEGO train enthusiasts, but it is actually not the case according to the few snippets of internal information we get on the topic. Jamie has gone on record that the sales and interest data are not great, and that it was a hard sell to get the EN approved

Of course everyone loves the big elaborate train layouts at shows, but only a tiny subset of those people have the time, interest, money, and space to do their own setups, add rolling stock ,etc. It really is a niche product for LEGO, one in which they currently don't see enough potential sales in to invest in

Pitfall69

^This is the main reason Lego Trains do so well in the Aftermarket; especially 9V trains and parts.

stevemack

Thoughts on #10233 Horizon? Doesn't seem to be a big seller in my eyes?

Pitfall69

It is a great set, but you really need (2) to make it look right. Add the PF and you are looking at $300 USD.

Farmer_John

^It doesn't compare to riding in the real deal. That thing books...

The down side is that getting to ride in the real deal probably costs as much as the two sets and the power functions, and you've got nothing to show for it at the end of the day except a ticket stub.

madforLEGO

The problem I find with the HE is that it just seems a bit 'pedestrian', especially when it comes after the Maersk train and Emerald Night before it. It is a pity because it is a great set, but it just seems like something is missing from it.

prevere

That's interesting. Price point is key. The words detailed and inex

dougts said:

prevere said:

Pitfall69 said:

Did "My Own Train" sell very well? I only bought the "Hopper" car. I love trains very much and almost every train in a must buy for me.

an advanced line of detailed trains (akin to the modulars) would be .... and insanely popular.

I know this premise is promoted a lot by AFOL and LEGO train enthusiasts, but it is actually not the case according to the few snippets of internal information we get on the topic. Jamie has gone on record that the sales and interest data are not great, and that it was a hard sell to get the EN approved

Of course everyone loves the big elaborate train layouts at shows, but only a tiny subset of those people have the time, interest, money, and space to do their own setups, add rolling stock ,etc. It really is a niche product for LEGO, one in which they currently don't see enough potential sales in to invest in

I wonder if TLG doesn't put much value on aftermarket prices as "sales and interest data" when considering product development. When people are willing to fork over $350 for the EN that tells me that audience, albeit small, is way under-served.

edgarallanpoe1422

Can't believe TLG hasn't twigged on to the idea of doing a 'LEGO Trains' line of sets, essentially mimicking adult model train collecting, except in Lego form. The problem is that there's this 'gap' in TLG's model train offerings, inasmuch as an integrated system of tracks and functions is only available under the City badge, and is therefore marketed at the 10-15 age group, which the design of the trains as well as the overall presentation of the sets reflects. (Think #60051, #60052, #7938, etc). So despite loving model trains and Lego none of those City sets appeal to me in the slightest.

Then there are the model trains aimed at an older, collector demographic, (#10219, #10194, #10233, the Santa Fe sets, and so on), but they don't have an accompanying system of track or functions to run them on. Sure you can purchase track separately, but to make the kind of intricate model train set ups like you see in hobby shops would require a lot of MOCing. Otherwise, all you'd have would be a plain, flat circuit of track on your dinner table.

I really wish they'd bring out a range of train (and track/scenery/buildings) sets designed to be used together in a modular fashion with power functions, aimed at a hobbyist/collector level, imitating the Architecture range in terms of presentation as well as the way those sets take pride in the history and artistry of their subjects.

Astericked

Does anyone know the official status on Town Hall? All major retailers here in the
US are sold out online, and LEGO [email protected] is sold out. I checked the local LEGO store here in Nashville this morning, and they're sold out. Hope I didn't miss out on this set. :(

And if anyone has a spare one in the US they're willing to sell, PM me, It'd be much appreciated. :)

stevemack

Still plentiful on Europe [email protected]

wagnerml2

I think that the My Own Train was ahead of its time. Building techniques have developed significantly since then. I think a MOT offering geared towards adults would sell well.

Ronyar

Has anyone heard anything about the Master Builder Academy sets being retired soon? Last i had checked, they were gone from Toys R Us and Barnes and Noble. Today at a Lego store, they were in a pile with galaxy squad sets marked as "last chance to get them" (but not on sale of course...). Sales rep thought they were done, but for all I know the store may just not have shelf space for them anymore. Any insight? I haven't seen a ton of secondary market interest in them, but I also haven't seen them on sale in quite awhile so I haven't been paying much attention to them.

edgarallanpoe1422

I've been pretty relaxed about the Town Hall so far, but I'm beginning to wonder whether EOL might be nigh, and that European availability (and availability in those countries which draw from European stock) has simply been more resilient thus far because the higher price has 'rationed' it a bit more. In Australia for instance it's priced at $300 dollarydoos, which makes what is a nice (but not outstanding) set a little bit unattractive. I still think it's going to be around for another year, but I've noticed recently that a similar thing happened with the Haunted House and SSD; US stock was exhausted before European stock. Not sure though whether to make anything out of it.

Shib

Pitfall69 said:

I heard they are making "Ghostbusters 3" and this time it will be female ghostBusters. This will make @tamamahm‌ happy I'm sure ;) I can see this as a replacement for Monster Fighters (if Lego makes any sets for the movie). The movie will also draw interest in the current Lego Ghostbusters set.

assuming there's no licencing issues i think TLG would be stupid to pass on the chance of a ghostbusters theme with a new film. Considering there are other Ideas projects getting good interest, a couple of sets from the older films, maybe ball room (with the much desired moulded slimer) for the first film and a sewer type set for two, could really sell well even if the new film turns out a bit of a dud. As much as I'd love a Stay Puft marshmallow man, Ghostbuster's HQ and/or giant walking Statue of Liberty sets I think theyd need to be too big for TLG to be really good.

bp10030

stevemack said:

Still plentiful on Europe [email protected]

Right, but from retailer like amazon.fr/it/uk/es not restocked since months...

Bumblepants

So Series 12 CMF are showing up as sold out on [email protected]H U.S. So they lasted two weeks?! Probably plenty still in stores and they could easily reappear online as well. The $4 price tag clearly hasn't been much hindrance to these selling.

lordzarak

Town Hall may very well be done. My [email protected] order has been cancelled. Oh well, at least I got a free Holiday set out of the deal which already shipped.

SuperTramp

^What was the reason for the cancellation?

lordzarak

"The demand for the item(s) listed below has exceeded our expectations and the item(s) are no longer available. We regret to inform you that the order for these item(s) has been cancelled from your order"

I have never ordered the Town Hall from any place, so it is not an issue where they think I've surpassed a limit.

enotoga

Yep, I just got the same email cancelling the Town Hall I bought on October 8th. Same reason - demand exceeds supply. This is the same email Lego sends out when an item retires and they need to cancel orders after running out of stock.

SuperTramp

What was date of the backorder when you placed the order?

prevere

Weren't we getting that email response when GE "looked" like it was going to retire in July/August?

madforLEGO

Wow a bit surprising if TH is really gone. I know it was a heavy price point, but one would think that it would go in order with the other Mods. I guess because of the higher price point it did not have to follow the production values of the other mods.

lordzarak

I think the backorder date was the 20th when I ordered. I ordered it during a small window when it reappeared on [email protected]

SuperTramp

Be a massive surprise to me if its gone, especially with GE looking like its going as well.

Its not even been out two years has it?

iso3200

Weird. Still listed as available on [email protected] UK.

Shib

I'd imagine the shortage in the US is mainly down to double VIP points at a time when people are speculating about it's retirement. As US and EU use a different stock pools it's not uncommon for one to run out before the other.

binaryeye

SuperTramp said:

Its not even been out two years has it?

Two and a half as of early September.

Diggydoes

I guess it's time for people to realize that the usual "lifecircle"of a (exclusive)set doesn't apply anymore!

pumperx

My TH ordered on 10/8 just shipped. Here is the email I got after i placed order.

Thank you for ordering from shop.LEGO.com. Unfortunately, the item(s) listed below are currently out of stock and it will be a little longer before we can ship them to you.

If you made your payment via credit card, please note that while we will authorize your card shortly. It will not be charged until your item(s) ship(s). You will receive an email notification at that time.

We apologize for any inconvenience this delay may cause. If you’re worried your order will not arrive in time and you would like to change or cancel it, please contact us at 800-835-4386.

Best regards,
The LEGO® Customer Service Team

CircleK

Well, I haven't received the message from Lego yet, but it appears my TH order from the 8th has also been cancelled. When I checked online, the status of my order was "Customer Service", but the status indicator beside the TH line item itself is "Cancelled"

Oh Well... The TH is my least favorite modular anyways and I still got a free xmas promo out of it. I'll sleep alright tonight.

enotoga

When I ordered TH during that brief window on October 8th, the backorder ship date was Oct. 20th. Here's my guess on what's happening - TH is following the same phase-out pattern as GE. First it sells out, only to reappear briefly when a stash of unsold units is found in the supply chain. Once that stash runs out, all unfulfilled orders are immediately cancelled. Why would they cancel these orders if they were planning to make more? I think TH and GE are both very close to permanent "retired" status. Same with HH.

madforLEGO

enotoga said:

When I ordered TH during that brief window on October 8th, the backorder ship date was Oct. 20th. Here's my guess on what's happening - TH is following the same phase-out pattern as GE. First it sells out, only to reappear briefly when a stash of unsold units is found in the supply chain. Once that stash runs out, all unfulfilled orders are immediately cancelled. Why would they cancel these orders if they were planning to make more? I think TH and GE are both very close to permanent "retired" status. Same with HH.

They probably could cancel orders if they cannot deliver by a certain date. So if more TH's take about 30-60 days more to replenish they may just cancel the orders instead of trying to keep track of all the back orders.
Im guessing we will likely know if in 30 days if they are back or gone for good.

enotoga

Put another way, in the corporate world orders are gold. Orders are all that matters. It costs a lot of money to get an order so there is a strong aversion to cancelling orders - it's taboo and requires several levels of approval to make it happen. Its so ugly in fact that nobody wants to approve the request, so when it happens it's usually tied to a desire to leave the product behind. That's the only way you could justify it.

tdhbr

Has #10220 Volkswagen Van been discussed recently? I skimmed back a little and didn't notice anything. Seems to me like it could be on the way out - it's been 2 years, and the Mini Cooper could be a "replacement." I'm considering picking up a few to hopefully finance next year's purchases. Anyone know anything definite about it?

Farmer_John

^Last month you could get two free sets just for ordering the #10220 Volkswagen Camper: the mini Camper #40079 and the DC Retro Spaceman #5002802. That would have been a good time to grab it.

Dad

tdhbr said:

Has #10220 Volkswagen Van been discussed recently? I skimmed back a little and didn't notice anything. Seems to me like it could be on the way out - it's been 2 years, and the Mini Cooper could be a "replacement." I'm considering picking up a few to hopefully finance next year's purchases. Anyone know anything definite about it?

It's been 3 years, not 2. And every man and his dog have a stash of them.

tdhbr

Well, since I have neither an operational flux capacitor nor a Delorean to put one in, I can't go back to last month, so I'll have to go with the best I can right now. Double VIP points and an extra #40106 are good - maybe I'll order several and make an elf army.

Farmer_John

I was in Target today and saw the new SW B-Wing set #75050 on the shelf. Releasing this set so soon after UCS B-Wing set #10227 was retired seems like a strange decision to me. I just can't see #75050 selling that well. TLG should have waited for some pent up demand (if there was ever going to be any).

Observer

I enjoy reading all the posts from all the armchair quarterbacks. Lego should have done so much and are stupid for not doing other things. Last I heard they are doing just fine.

JP3804

I saw #75050 on the self @ WalMart last week.

nicoyagomez

^ Exactly what I was thinking. Aren't they the largest toymaker in the world now? Seems like they know what they're doing.

binaryeye

Farmer_John said:

I was in Target today and saw the new SW B-Wing set #75050 on the shelf. Releasing this set so soon after UCS B-Wing set #10227 was retired seems like a strange decision to me. I just can't see #75050 selling that well.

I don't see it selling well, either, but not because of #10227. The two serve different markets.

nkx1

Although Lego has achieved top toy maker status for now, and obviously they've made some smart decisions to get there, don't assume they can't make a poor decision. Many large and successful companies have come and gone (or are on their way out) due to numerous reasons, including poor decision making. Not listening to their customers comes to mind as one such poor decision.