Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

LegoFanTexas

^ Oh sure, just go THERE why don't you? :-)

LegoFanTexas

BTW, Death Star is back in stock at Amazon... was wondering when that would hit...

Anyone want to bet when it is going out?

Dad

FatMatt said:

^How about a rubber hose, a spatula, and a 9v battery?

Where's @Pitfall when you need him around?

SuperTramp

Anyone know how long the GE has been ''sold out'' for in the states?

Pitfall69

madforLEGO said:

vasp said:

madforLEGO said:

lulwut said:

Hard to believe we're no longer seeing the cutthroat price slashing seen two years ago on big sets: $120 Town Halls, $280 Death Stars, $260 SSDs. WoW!

In the US, there are no more discounts on DS, TH, or other 'exclusive' sets. So if you want one you are likely paying retail for em. The best you can likely do is get them with 2x VIP points when LEGO is running one of those promotions to get something back.
Plus pretty sure TH is still at the store by me, though that was on Saturday, not sure if they are still hanging around.

Also interestingly enough, the #31012 Family house is back to Sold out again.. Wonder if this is only due to low stocks of the set though as I think it has not been out that long.

#31012 is done. The only place available currently is tru. Not sure how long it will last there.

#3185 is done at tru also. May be sporadic stock in store. That's it.

Where is the source for #31012 is 'done'? Because it is a bit of a surprise if this is the case, the set has only been out for about 1 year.

It is still available on Amazon for less than RRP and PRIME.

madforLEGO

SuperTramp said:

Anyone know how long the GE has been ''sold out'' for in the states?

It has been gone for about a week.. and before that went into and out of sold out status a week and few days at a time.
I think the popular guess is it is finally gone from LEGO warehouses with no stock to replenish, but I'that is a guess that right now. If it eventually changes it tag to 'retired product' it is gone for good.

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

rocao said:

LegoFanTexas said:

Boo! I'll bet you're loads of fun at parties too. :)

It depends on what the criteria is. I bet ours differ wildly.

:) Does yours involve a toga?

Dad said:

FatMatt said:

^How about a rubber hose, a spatula, and a 9v battery?

Where's @Pitfall when you need him around?

First off; I would NOT want to go to a toga party hosted by @LegoFanTexas‌ or @rocao‌ for that matter.

Believe me, there are some interesting things you can do with a rubber hose, a spatula and a 9V battery, but that is for another forum ;)

Brickarmor

SuperTramp said:

Anyone know how long the GE has been ''sold out'' for in the states?

Just a few days now. It bounced around all through Sept, came back for a quick 2x VIP run, and just disappeared again.

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

It is still available on Amazon for less than RRP and PRIME.

:) For 70 cents less, yes...

And not from Amazon, but from YoYo which they own...

It might be gone, it might be back, hard to say... I can't imagine it costs THAT much to make, it sells nicely, and unless they have something similar to replace it, why not just continue it?

That being said, I have a feeling it is done. Time will tell.

vasp

walmart.com sold #31012 for 59.99. Its still on their website but only for pickup. Picked up all they had. Surprisingly no limit on it. The worst part is wm shipped 1 per box

madforLEGO

Yoyo.com has #31020 still for 69.29 USD and free shipping

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

Pitfall69 said:

It is still available on Amazon for less than RRP and PRIME.

:) For 70 cents less, yes...

And not from Amazon, but from YoYo which they own...

It might be gone, it might be back, hard to say... I can't imagine it costs THAT much to make, it sells nicely, and unless they have something similar to replace it, why not just continue it?

That being said, I have a feeling it is done. Time will tell.

madforLEGO said:

Yoyo.com has #31020 still for 69.29 USD and free shipping

Yes. My point was: 1) It is available elsewhere other than Toys R Us. 2) It is cheaper than RRP. When a set is SOLD OUT, the price usually shoots up. When HH sold out at US [email protected], HH shot up to 270 on Amazon. 3) If you don't like to pay sales tax, that $.70 turns into almost $5.00 in savings depending on where you live.

bri4jenn

@FollowsClosely What website monitoring software are you using?

SteveB73

stevemack said:

#10221 Call to check availability on UK [email protected], just managed to order 2 over the phone for delivery next week (weird as the website was giving dates in december last week when it was in stock on the website), they also informed me that it's still in production until the end of the year but beyond that they aren't sure if it will be available after new year!

I called the UK [email protected] myself yesterday after seeing this, to enquire about the future availability of #10221, and was told that it was uncertain as to whether any more would be available, but I could put one on backorder, which I did.

However, today I received an email from LEGOshop.com, to inform me that "The demand for the item listed below (#10221) has exceeded our expectations and the item is no longer available. We regret to inform you that the order for this item has been cancelled from your order."

So it looks unlikely that it will be available again, unless it's just the odd one randomly appearing from a cancelled order or something. I might just put the money in some modulars instead, as the Town Hall and Grand Emporium are still available here...

lordzarak

Town Hall back on US [email protected] (though backordered)

enotoga

Thanks Lordzarak. I just ordered one.

SuperTramp

SteveB73 said:

stevemack said:

#10221 Call to check availability on UK [email protected], just managed to order 2 over the phone for delivery next week (weird as the website was giving dates in december last week when it was in stock on the website), they also informed me that it's still in production until the end of the year but beyond that they aren't sure if it will be available after new year!

I called the UK [email protected] myself yesterday after seeing this, to enquire about the future availability of #10221, and was told that it was uncertain as to whether any more would be available, but I could put one on backorder, which I did.

However, today I received an email from LEGOshop.com, to inform me that "The demand for the item listed below (#10221) has exceeded our expectations and the item is no longer available. We regret to inform you that the order for this item has been cancelled from your order."

So it looks unlikely that it will be available again, unless it's just the odd one randomly appearing from a cancelled order or something. I might just put the money in some modulars instead, as the Town Hall and Grand Emporium are still available here...

Like I said "gone"

lol

monkeyhanger

Steve B73: Best bet is to get to a Lego shop - Newcastle (acually Gateshead) were still selling SSD last week, with their tatty empty display box on the shelf. If you are desperate to get one I could see if they have any left.

Amazon.fr has someone selling them for 429 Euros (£340) delivered.

enotoga

Town Hall just went to "Sold Out" again on US Lego.com. No future ship date and no way to place a back-order. Luckily, I got a backorder yesterday but it might get cancelled. That was quick.

prevere

It'll be back. I am absolutely convinced of that.

mathew

I just don't see Town Hall being retired out of order. The Brickpicker guys are going nuts about it. Lego is a pretty conservative company (except when it comes to the Ideas theme). Following the pattern of previous modulars I'd say that the Town Hall still has at least another year.

Billybrown

mathew said:

I just don't see Town Hall being retired out of order. The Brickpicker guys are going nuts about it. Lego is a pretty conservative company (except when it comes to the Ideas theme). Following the pattern of previous modulars I'd say that the Town Hall still has at least another year.

Yes TH should still have a long way to go. I still think there will be another batch of HH as well (UK)

Farmer_John

While logic would dictate that the TH should still have some time, there are a lot of things that TLG is doing these days that aren't logical. If you really want this set, I would pull the trigger as soon as possible to keep from paying an exorbitant aftermarket price.

bri4jenn

I asked LEGO yesterday if they will be making more Haunted Houses and it was a shame they would not be available just before Halloween. This is the reply I got for what it is worth.


Thanks for getting in touch with us.


It's great to hear you like the LEGO® Haunted House 10228.

It’s a very popular set and we’ve had a lot more orders than we expected. We don’t have any in stock at the moment, and we’re working hard to make more.

We know it's very disappointing that this set is out of stock currently for Halloween which we agree would be the perfect set for this time of year. We're working very hard to get this set back and available as soon as we can.

If you don't want to wait for this particular set, we have plenty of other great sets that might inspire the LEGO builders in your family.

To see all the LEGO toys that have available now, visit LEGO.com/shop.

We want to make sure we're doing a good job for you, so you’ll always find the link to a four-question survey in our emails. Please tell us how we did today:

LEGO Survey link

Please let us know if you need anything else.

prevere

Very interesting, and by the way, Soundwave rules.

enotoga

I agree that it would very unusual for Town Hall to retire so close behind the presumed near-term retirement of Grand Emporium. However, it seems like there's been a substantial expansion in the number of (large) sets currently available, so unless production and distribution also expanded we could be in for a new normal. It just seems like Lego has taken on a huge number of new commitments over the past couple years. It's evident that their having difficulty keeping up with demand. Regardless of what the truth is, I think this all bodes well for the secondary market.

goshe7

mathew said:

I just don't see Town Hall being retired out of order. The Brickpicker guys are going nuts about it.

Agreed on the former. On the latter, is any other response in their best interest?

nkx1

^I think it bodes well for the secondary market only if you are a reseller that stocks up on sets extremely early on. Otherwise, if you are a reseller that normally waits until within a year or less of expected EOL (like myself), you will lose out. You will also lose out if you are a consumer on the secondary market, since less supply generally equals higher prices.

Come to think of it, that seems like the ideal situation for Lego because:
1. Less resellers with product (less competition)
2. Consumers will be more inclined to buy current Lego sets because secondary market prices will be higher than what is is palatable

Dougout

I think the designs of the modulars started getting more detailed from the Pet Shop on. IMHO, they look better with slightly more pieces being used on detail for the inside and out rather than larger bricks being used on the actual building structure. That being said, out of the PS, TH, and GE, I think they rank in order from best to worst as: PS, TH and then GE. They are all good, but the detailing of PS and TH are superior to GE and make the buildings more lifelike and playable.

I'm interested to know why people think TH is intended to be discontinued now by TLG rather than just being in a brief temporary out of stock situation due to double VIP? Was the $200 price point really making it not sell well? GE seems like it is almost begging to leave at this point. It's been in and out of stock more times than I can count, and it seems a bit outdated for lack of a better word.

vasp

ToO is out of review on amazon. Not sure how long this will last as the only other place u can get it is at Lego.com

Farmer_John

It may be obvious, but the best time to get a set is when it's released if you can't live without it. The HH has been out for a couple years now and the TH has been out even longer. There have been a lot of opportunities to pick either set up for double VIP points or even triple VIP points...and with free sets to boot. And I remember the TH going on sale for roughly $150 (25% off) at Amazon a least a couple times.

A person almost needs to make a plan when a set is released and stick to the plan. For example, I knew ahead of time that I wanted to get the UCS Tumbler and was willing to pay full Lego retail (but never TRU retail ;-) ). When it was released, I purchased it from [email protected] and received a couple free sets with it. I didn't expect to ever see it on sale (and still don't), so I just grabbed one at the outset. I also figured I might want an additional Tumbler set to give as a gift to one of my kids when they're older, BUT I wanted to wait for more Lego incentives. I was able to get a second Tumbler in the store for double VIP points PLUS a free Christmas set. Even though there could be better deals coming down the pike, I'm satisfied with the purchases I made...

There are always at least a couple sets on my list nearing EOL that I want to get but don't have the funds, want to wait for double VIP points, want to wait for a special free giveaway set, etc. In fact I currently have at least two sets in that category now, but plan to wait until BF so I can get the second holiday set with it. I recognize that waiting is always a gamble...and sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. At that point I have to decide whether to quickly grab the set from a reseller before prices escalate OR to just forget about it. But I don't complain about it and I don't begrudge others who gambled and won.

dougts

^ exactly. With exclusives in the US now, the entire "wait for a good discount" strategy is dead and gone, so there really is no excuse not to buy in the first 12 months. Wait for double VIP, wait for a cool freebie, wait to save funds - whatever. Beyond that, it's on you if you don't get it.

enotoga

"Was the $200 price point really making TH not sell well?" - I think it's had an impact. There we're many times over the past couple years when I thought about buying another TH and instead opted to spread the money over a couple less expensive sets. Also, the design doesn't scream excitement and playability the way other sets do.

It might be off and on repeatedly over the next 6 months or so. Same with HH, but who knows. If I was Lego, I would deploy the off and on strategy repeatedly like they've been doing with GE. Every time they put these sets back on sale, they sell a huge number in 24-48 hours.

It's a new day.

enotoga

The dream sets for people who don't mind stashing them away for 5 years are The Delorean and Ghost Busters. Small - easy to ship. The Delorean was on Walmart at $27 forever - it seems like a commodity now. But when it's gone, it will be sorely missed. Ghost Busters is just the coolest thing I've ever seen, except for the Tumbler (which I didn't get)

goshe7

^ who will be the buyers? Both are based on movies from the 80s. So the kids who grew up with then are in their 20s to 40s right now. That demographic isn't likely to significantly change their ability to afford the set relative to now and is well out of the typical dark age emergence window. Neither movie seems to have the significant "always on TNT" that would drive a new generation of consumers.

But in fairness, I never saw the allure of these sets in the first place.

madforLEGO

enotoga said:

The dream sets for people who don't mind stashing them away for 5 years are The Delorean and Ghost Busters. Small - easy to ship. The Delorean was on Walmart at $27 forever - it seems like a commodity now. But when it's gone, it will be sorely missed. Ghost Busters is just the coolest thing I've ever seen, except for the Tumbler (which I didn't get)

Use the Ghostbusters at the Haunted House before 'rehabbing' it

stevemack

I need some deloreans, havent got any :(

Billybrown

madforLEGO said:

enotoga said:

The dream sets for people who don't mind stashing them away for 5 years are The Delorean and Ghost Busters. Small - easy to ship. The Delorean was on Walmart at $27 forever - it seems like a commodity now. But when it's gone, it will be sorely missed. Ghost Busters is just the coolest thing I've ever seen, except for the Tumbler (which I didn't get)

Use the Ghostbusters at the Haunted House before 'rehabbing' it

For the finishing touch a UCS marsh mellow man, might be a boring build though :-)

stevemack

Anyone think the Tumbler will be available outside of Lego? Or will it be strictly exclusive?

monkeyhanger

^ If anyone gets it, it will likely be Smyths in the UK.

cbaker1974

^^TRU has a product page for the Tumbler

stevemack

^ I meant the UK :) I doubt TRU UK will get it

enotoga

I put the Delorean and Ghostbusters in the same class as the modulars. They just seem so solid, cool, and high quality. Kids aren't driving demand on Green Grocer or the Taj, yet the demand is there. I guess it's all a matter of personal preference in the end.

vasp

stevemack said:

Anyone think the Tumbler will be available outside of Lego? Or will it be strictly exclusive?

wb shop

Billybrown

enotoga said:

I put the Delorean and Ghostbusters in the same class as the modulars. They just seem so solid, cool, and high quality. Kids aren't driving demand on Green Grocer or the Taj, yet the demand is there. I guess it's all a matter of personal preference in the end.

Delorean just doesn't have the wow I'm in love factor for me. It looks ok, but looks a bit too clunky, yes the original delorean looks clunky, but its clunkier than I feel it should be. Seems I'm in the minority to say that as its a popular set.

As for Ghostbusters, well I could drool all day over that, more so than good ole' slimer himself :-)

enotoga

I agree......there is just something about Ghostbusters that hits on all cylinders. Even the box is a work of art. The Delorean is one that I think will be appreciated more after it's gone. I'm interested to see how the Heavy Lift Helicopter does now that it's retiring. I've always like thing and thought it was a great value under $50
.

Brew

I've finally started building my first modular, GE (only because my 3 year old is obsessed with escalators right now). To give perspective why this needs to go EOL; I was amused to see advertised on the back of book 2 the GC. On the inner back cover was EN.

I bought my GE some time ago, do they update these ads or do they all have these reminders of the good ol days in the instruction books?

Farmer_John

^Now that you bring it up, I was talking to my wife yesterday about the EN. I LOVE that set. To me it's the best Lego train set ever made. TLG could make some serious bucks (from me at least) releasing a bunch of older style trains.

That said, they probably just print the instruction files without any thought of updating the adds. Now if there's an error in the building instructions, that's another story...

prevere

A bunch of different train styles for $75 a pop (engine), and $30 for cars....yup that would fly off the shelves. A rekindling of "My Own Train" theme...

Pitfall69

Did "My Own Train" sell very well? I only bought the "Hopper" car. I love trains very much and almost every train in a must buy for me.

I heard they are making "Ghostbusters 3" and this time it will be female ghostBusters. This will make @tamamahm‌ happy I'm sure ;) I can see this as a replacement for Monster Fighters (if Lego makes any sets for the movie). The movie will also draw interest in the current Lego Ghostbusters set.