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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    March + Disney/Lego land = the WIN!
    Remind me what the combo is here? Double VIP from Mar 1-15, plus season pass discount at these parks?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Aye
  • willkfwongwillkfwong Southern CaliforniaMember Posts: 44
    edited February 2012
    Any current promo codes for Target? Best I found was $5 off of $50 with free shipping. Thanks.
    There is a $5 off star war items of $20+ at target: http://www.ultimatecoupons.com/coupons/target_coupons.htm

    This includes SW Lego sets.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    I typically keep an eye on what Target, Amazon, TRU, etc. are doing with their lego sets, prices, etc.

    After seeing @LFT's stash, I have to add him to the list. I think he might be the only person I know that can single-handedly impact the lego aftermarket just by his comments. Is @LFT the "Warren Buffet" of Legos? We might even see his face on the cover of Time Magazine one day. :-)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas - How many UCS Millennium Falcons do you have? (asking seriously)
    Or is that a set that you would only get rid of since you feel the market for it is peaking?

    I'll be adding more MMV, Fire Brigades, and I think Imperial Shuttles to the stash this year. But some sets have to go to make room for them!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    @brickupdate - I have two of them, one to build and one to sell... I should probably sell them both, since they are worth so much money, but I really, really want to build one. :)
  • littletokilittletoki Member Posts: 519
    ^ @LegofanTexas - you big dodo. You mean you haven't built it yet?!?

    Well, that's probably better than building, throwing it in the corner in some room and then bumping into it while vacuuming.

    Uh, the wind blew it over.

    image
    3.jpg 45.4K
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    Don't you hate it when the vacuum cleaner picks up your LEGO pieces?
  • toyz4metoyz4me Member Posts: 7
    edited February 2012
    No. Target does not have physical stores in all 50 states.
    Never would have guessed... Seems all over the place, just like the WM.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited February 2012
    March + Disney/Lego land = the WIN!
    Remind me what the combo is here? Double VIP from Mar 1-15, plus season pass discount at these parks?
    Yup. Effectively a 19% discount, but only at Disneyland/Disney World. No VIP points at LEGOLAND.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    @littletoki You know, whenever I want to see what a house looks like without kids I just have to look at your pics :P

    No marks on the walls or baseboards, clean carpet and "no clutter".

    And a dedicated Lego "room" instead of a dedicated Lego "house".
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    No marks on the walls or baseboards, clean carpet and "no clutter".
    Exactly...I was wondering what that tanish material was that the lego parts are laying on was. Then I remembered...oh, that's what carpet looks like!

    Nota Bene: Not posting against the wife....just saying.
    Amanda1983
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ @LegofanTexas - you big dodo. You mean you haven't built it yet?!?

    Well, that's probably better than building, throwing it in the corner in some room and then bumping into it while vacuuming.

    Uh, the wind blew it over.
    "That blast came from the Death Star! That thing's operational!"

    No, I haven't built it yet, and it has been in my closet for over a year now... I have actually bought and sold several of them in the past year, but never built it myself, always had something else to do...

    I keep focusing on the less expensive sets, or the used sets that I have to build (such as the recent UCS X-Wing and UCS TIE Interceptor), figuring that cracking open such an expensive set when I have other things to build would be foolish!

    Of course, using that logic, I'll never open it... Grr...

    I have actually sold off several expensive items that I thought I was going to build, but I figure this will be the one *grand* exception, my biggest indulgence to insanity, opening a $2K Lego set to build from scratch...

    Of course, I have the same problem with 10189 as well, and did with 10181 until I sold my last MISB of that set (sold it for $1,500, bought a used copy for $550, not a bad trade). I'd do that with 10189 and 10179 if I could find used copies of both sets for a reasonable price, but I have not been able to.
  • stephenvwstephenvw Lexington, KYMember Posts: 89
    what do you guys think of 10198 tantive iv? it's sold out on [email protected] but amazon still has a bunch of them. Do you think it will go up in price? I already have one but should i buy more?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited February 2012
    ^It is a good looking ship. Figures are nothing special. It will go up with time once the major retailers are out of them, but it will probably be a little while. If you read through the posts, it was already talked about in this thread.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Stopped by Target Valentine aisle today and picked up a bunch of 30105s, a 30071, and a 7802, all for $1.19. The latter two sets will probably never amount to much, but the former could.
  • littletokilittletoki Member Posts: 519
    @Farmer_John - that Note Bene was a smart move. ;)

    @LegoFanTexas - I guess by now, it's virtually impossible to look at the UCS Mill Falcon and not see it as a 2K model.

    It is probably one our favorite builds to date. Crack it open! It's worth it.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    @LegoFanTexas - I guess by now, it's virtually impossible to look at the UCS Mill Falcon and not see it as a 2K model.

    It is probably one our favorite builds to date. Crack it open! It's worth it.
    Grr, just make it hard on me why don't you...

    So, do I break open the mint condition 2nd revision set that is in perfect condition, but is not the first run series...

    Or do I break open the 1st run set that I have, even if it is beat up... Has the COA and everything with a below 1,000 number printed on the certificate.

    Seems like such an act of decadence to just cut the seals on something so expensive... :)

    Hey!!! Just had an idea... Why don't you lend me your set? It was damaged anyway, take it all apart, ship it to me, I'll rebuild it for you and ship it back! :)
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited February 2012
    Hey!!! Just had an idea... Why don't you lend me your set? It was damaged anyway, take it all apart, ship it to me, I'll rebuild it for you and ship it back! :)
    If @LFT pays for shipping both ways, that wouldn't be a bad idea at all. It'll be a whole new way of sharing!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Hmm, there is a business idea...

    UCS Falcon set rental... :)
  • littletokilittletoki Member Posts: 519
    edited February 2012
    Hey - so that's what that big envelope is? The COA? I just opened it now after umm.... 5+ years.

    Does the 1st run or 2nd run matter to you if you're keeping it? It might matter to a collector though - anyone spending that much money is truly dedicated.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @Farmer_John - that Note Bene was a smart move. ;)
    Beats sleeping in the garage... ;-)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    @littletoki 1st run commands a little more money.
  • littletokilittletoki Member Posts: 519
    ^ Good to know. I think I'll rebuild the Falcon and post a series of photos to taunt LFT.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Gotta ask: Is the Friends 30105 EOL'd? It doesn't show up that way here on Brickset, but it isn't an item that [email protected] sells either. I figure since they were going for $1.20 at target, it might be EOL'd.

    It is probably too early to say, but I am wondering what Friends will be like once it's EOL'd. I figure it will be on either end of the spectrum...especially since it seems to be politically incorrect with some crowds.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    ^ Brickset cannot automatically track EOL dates for items not sold directly by LEGO. And it would be impossible to know when any poly is truly gone as retailers release them at multiple different times and in no logical way. For example, Target Clearanced the Venator pollies months ago and yet they're now still for sale but back to the regular price. Additionally, the police helicopter came, went away and then returned in a different sized bag late last year.

    As for guestimating the aftermarket value of Friends sets once the theme is EOL, I'll assume you're kidding. While we're at it, we can discuss the resale value of Helms Deep. :o)
  • parkerwilsonparkerwilson Member Posts: 142
    edited February 2012
    Very surprisingly, Friends holds the #1, #3, and #6 slots on best selling Lego sets @amazon us
    The first Star Wars set doesn't come in until #5 and then #13
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    My local Lego store reports that Friends is selling very well. Not as well as Star Wars or Ninjago, but it is doing much better than you'd think.

    The only complaint I heard was that they were stuffed full of sets, TLG loaded them up on sets to make sure they would not run out, and the whole back of the store is crammed with them. This is understandable, since TLG spent millions of dollars advertising them, I've seen the commercials multiple times, the first time I recall seeing a Lego commercial period.

    That being said, my local store is begging for Ninjago, the spinners more than anything else. They got extra shipments of them in, then another express order in, and are STILL sold out of them, every single spinner is sold out, those sell like hotcakes... Shame, with the recent spinner tourny, they could have sold even more...

    The green boxed sets are doing just fine, but it is the smaller sets that seem to do well there.

    BTW, they also just restocked Fire Temple again, 2507, thought that red box set was going away, but I guess not... :) It is sitting right next to 2518, the ATV that is 50% off. Go figure...
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    What does the LEGO store stock room look like? And I'm surprised that Ninjago is doing so well. I was never interested in the theme, but I am glad to hear that many people are. I guess it is because the spinners is so similar to Beyblades.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited February 2012
    ^^ I went ahead a bought several Fire Temples. The price did well while they were out of stock and the Ninjago brand is a strong one -- especially since they still have more sets coming out later this year. Part of my reasoning was the dragon but looks like another one is coming . . .

    ^ My kids really got into Ninjago from the get go. Neighborhood kids really like the whole spinner thing. Haven't had much interest in the green boxes, however . . .
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    The Fire Temple and that new robot that is going to be released in the second half of 2012, are the only Ninjago sets that interests me.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    What does the LEGO store stock room look like?
    Like a stock room full of cardboard boxes full of plastic widgets... :)

    Seriously, when you see that many sets piled from floor to ceiling, it does change the view a bit, from "oh look, really cool Lego set", to "oh look, piles of inventory that have to be moved and stocked".
    And I'm surprised that Ninjago is doing so well. I was never interested in the theme, but I am glad to hear that many people are. I guess it is because the spinners is so similar to Beyblades.
    I don't know because I don't get the appeal, but my failure to understand the appeal does not mean I don't invest in it, I can see the possibilities.

    Take a look at the retail price, then the selling price currently of 2260 to see an example...

    2507 will do very well when it retires... Kids love dragons... Look at the current price of the larger blue dragon, 2521... That set was, what, $79? Now $150 on Amazon...

    Most of the rest of it will do ok, but not amazingly well, because there will always be something else to buy and parents will only spend so much. I think the dragons are the big exception, but we'll see.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ That was along the lines of what one of my boys said this morning. He was moving his displays around and I questioned why he was putting the Ninjago stuff where he was since he didn't really play with it anymore. He immediately got all animated about the dragons and said he couldn't wait for the new one to come out.

    Wow, never checked out the dragon prices. Picked up a few of those 2260's for $7.50.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    $7.50? Grr... Was that a wally world deal? That is DARN cheap... Wish I had a hundred of them...
  • bahnstormerbahnstormer Member Posts: 180
    ^^ I just picked up a stash of 2259 at 50% off, this is now on run-out as the ninja's have a bike for 2012.

    This one is way cooler and will have biker interest long-term

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    ^ Brickset cannot automatically track EOL dates for items not sold directly by LEGO. And it would be impossible to know when any poly is truly gone as retailers release them at multiple different times and in no logical way. For example, Target Clearanced the Venator pollies months ago and yet they're now still for sale but back to the regular price. Additionally, the police helicopter came, went away and then returned in a different sized bag late last year.
    Interesting and useful information since I often use this Brickset's EOL data as a reference.
    As for guestimating the aftermarket value of Friends sets once the theme is EOL, I'll assume you're kidding. While we're at it, we can discuss the resale value of Helms Deep. :o)
    Since I wasn't aware of the information you presented in the first paragraph, it is a valid question. The sets within themes (at least from what I've noticed) come in waves. There are sets that are EOL'd while the theme is still active. A simple example of this is the SW theme, which has seen probably hundreds of SW sets that have been EOL'd; yet Lucas/Lego just renewed their license for 10 more years of (hopefully) new sets. Furthermore, this forum/thread is full of valid speculation of SW DS, UCS MF, etc. that could be or were EOL'd from a continuing theme. I was referring to particular set within a given theme (Friends), and since it is the only Friends set I have purchased to date I was curious about the future prospects of the Friends theme in general as I may be interested in purchasing other sets.
    Very surprisingly, Friends holds the #1, #3, and #6 slots on best selling Lego sets @amazon us
    The first Star Wars set doesn't come in until #5 and then #13
    Thanks @parkerwilson...good info!
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    speaking of 2260 and 2259... I'm able to get 66394 superpack (2506 + 2260 +2259) for around €40. What do you think?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    @Farmer_John - It is a valid question, but trying to guess at the aftermarket value of Friends right now would be useless. Star Wars has A LOT of precedent for basing estimations of how current popular sets will perform once they're EOL, whereas no such data exists for Friends. So to try and guess how Friends will do at this point would be speculating in the worst, most uninformed sense of the word.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Whilst I am not a huge fan of the Friends line, I am actually glad it is doing well, especially with some of the unfair criticism. No doubt I'll be getting some soon for my young daughter, so can make a more informed judgement then.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    It is probably too early to say, but I am wondering what Friends will be like once it's EOL'd. I figure it will be on either end of the spectrum...especially since it seems to be politically incorrect with some crowds.
    I responded to this portion of your post which indicates that you are talking about the secondary market value of the entirety of the theme once the theme reaches EOL. Apparently that's not what you meant to say, though. In either case, pontificating about the aftermarket on brand new sets in brand new themes would be futile as @y2josh points out.

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    @LegoFanTexas Never paid attention to the Ninjago stuff for the first couple weeks after Christmas but I only found two or three of 2260. That and a few earth dragons.

    And yes it was Walmart.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    The other end of Ninjago is 2218...

    2260 is probably the best example, 2218 is the worst...

    153 offers on Amazon, while it has a great rate of sales, it also has a million and one copies for sale... and in the Walmart thread, people are still reporting today that they are finding Walmarts with dozens, if not a hundred copies on the shelf.

    Plus S&H is still selling them for 50% off... and there are still dozens of copies at my local Lego store, 50% off...

    Way, way, way too many of these were made... not enough of 2260 were made...
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    I returned all of the 2518 sets that I bought. Anything that sits as long at 50% off on [email protected] as that set has is a complete waste of time in the secondary market...those probably won't recover to rrp for many years, if ever.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    To be honest, 251 should of have cost $12-15 in the first place. This set is definitely not worth $25.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    2518, that is what I meant to type... but you knew what I meant... Yes, it was way over priced to begin with...

    :)

    @Pacific493 - where did you buy them and return them, if I may ask?
  • parkerwilsonparkerwilson Member Posts: 142
    Walmart won't let your return yours LFT?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Walmart won't let your return yours LFT?
    Not worth my time or trouble to do that...

    In storage they'll sit, until they do become worth something. :)

    150 of them don't take up THAT much space... They are not large boxes...
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    150?!?! :-O
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    150?!?! :-O
    150 is nothing, I left a lot of them on the shelves at Wally World... Every place I went, they had some of this, some of that, and tons and tons of that set. I would have had 500 at least had I taken them all, maybe a thousand. There are ALOT of this set out there...

    After 3 or 4 stores, I figured that it wasn't worth taking every one of them.

    Do keep in mind that I have thousands of Lego sets in storage, this is, at the end of the day, pretty minor... (for me anyway, I know that isn't the case for everyone)
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    And if nothing works, you will be able to create your very own UCS Nuckal and turn the whole game around @LegoFanTexas :P I am a proud owner of 3 of those by the way, and 2 each of the 2259 and 2260.

    As for playability, I trust my 8 year old's judgement when it comes to playing. When the red line came out and by sheer luck my kid found this huge carton of LEGO his dad had ordered and opening it he found all the Kingdoms, Ninjago, City and Star Wars which were released in those days. BUT he immediately picked out the one of each of the Ninjago red spinners, and one of each of 2259, 2260 and the Dojo set. Now that is love at first sight :P

    Nowadays, the spinners are stored away, the Ninjago characters are resting in his big box of mini figures along with the new wave, and is awaiting to get the new spinners. The sets are all packed away as well. So for playability, its a single thumbs up. For after market, maybe they will fetch a good return. Or @LFT can donate it and make hundreds of kids very very happy :D


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