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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651


    To be fair on this one, it is included in the set description: "Accessories include shovel, pickaxe and a sausage" :)

    Of course. Because we all know that the secret weakness of an AT-AT is sausage.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    mathew said:

    It would be kind of stupid for Lego to EOL a Haunted House six weeks before Halloween.

    Kind of like EOLing the Research Institute set the first few days it's offered...
    The Research Institute is not EOL:
    "We apologize, but this item is not currently available on shop.LEGO.com. Limited quantities may be available in October in LEGO Stores"

    A cryptic way of saying that it will be available again. It wouldn't surprise me to see this sitting on shelves come Black Friday... if you want to risk the crowds.
    CoraHarrison
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,965
    ^ Isn't that like saying the guy stabbed through the heart isn't dead because he has two more breathes left? If the only availability of a set is that it might appear somewhere in some store with just limited quantitites, as opposed to offering any online, or any backorder...this phrasing makes it seems more likely that there were some sets left in the pipeline from an EOL-ed run.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    mathew said:

    mathew said:

    It would be kind of stupid for Lego to EOL a Haunted House six weeks before Halloween.

    Kind of like EOLing the Research Institute set the first few days it's offered...
    The Research Institute is not EOL:
    "We apologize, but this item is not currently available on shop.LEGO.com. Limited quantities may be available in October in LEGO Stores"

    A cryptic way of saying that it will be available again. It wouldn't surprise me to see this sitting on shelves come Black Friday... if you want to risk the crowds.
    Crowd surfing through Lego stores is what I live for!! :)

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    tamamahm said:

    ..this phrasing makes it seems more likely that there were some sets left in the pipeline from an EOL-ed run.

    We shall see. I don't believe it though. They resurrected the Architecture Studio after a hiatus.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^is that the new new new new anti-reseller tactic? Run out of stock, give resellers a short run, and then flood it back in?
    BrickarmorDougoutLegoKip
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,129
    TLG has active users here on the forums reading everything we write! As we wrythe with pain over missing something they laugh with joy and then throttle back even more. As we forget about set XXXXX they release another batch of it to pull everyone back in!
    jasorLegoFanTexasLegoKip
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    TLG: 'so....what if we sell 1XXXXX for 6 months, run out of stock, soft EOL, then wait another six months after the buying frenzy to flood the market until next May....? GENIUS!'
    Dougout
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,548
    ^, ^^ Yes. All of that is very extremely true makes no business sense whatsoever.
    jasor
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,904

    Or including a sausage in Battle of Hoth.

    But...the Battle of Hoth was a sausage-fest. Let's be honest here.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    edited September 2014
    So the big names being discussed for a near-future EOL are:

    Haunted House
    Super Star Destroyer
    Camper Van
    Pet Store
    Grand Emporium
    Town Hall

    I'm torn between just buying a handful each at the best market rates available (or even just on [email protected] itself) as soon as possible or, on the other hand, trusting that they'll be around for a few more months to take advantage of retail sales, [email protected] offers, and good local deals on ebay/Gumtree, picking up sets here and there. I seem to always interpret the former as the better strategy but always end up doing the latter (with mixed results).
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,848

    So the big names being discussed for a near-future EOL are:

    Haunted House
    Super Star Destroyer
    Camper Van
    Pet Store
    Grand Emporium
    Town Hall

    I'm torn between just buying a handful each at the best market rates available (or even just on [email protected] itself) as soon as possible or, on the other hand, trusting that they'll be around for a few more months to take advantage of retail sales, [email protected] offers, and good local deals on ebay/Gumtree, picking up sets here and there. I seem to always interpret the former as the better strategy but always end up doing the latter (with mixed results).

    Pet store and Town Hall are the likeliest of that list to be around for a while longer, guessing until about summer, like GE was this year (and still is apparently available, at least in the US at [email protected]) Tower Bridge is likely to go to by end of this year as well though that is just a guess, same with Sopwith Camel.
    But if you want to know the typical list of things likely to go then check a couple of pages ago in this thread. :-)
    HH is on its way out (gone from major retailers in the US and 'sold out' on [email protected]).
    As for the VW Van there are rumors that it is sticking around for another year (same with DS) but like anything else that is only on educated guess made by someone in this thread (from those with wholesaler product availability lists for '15 I'm guessing)


  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,548
    Sopwith Camel is listed as Sold Out on [email protected] US.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,129
    I think thats all most if not all of us can really do is make educated guesses, but out of that list just a post or two above I would say GE and obviously HH. The rest I have heard grumblings about an end next year, so even before it begins 2015 is shaping up to be quite the EOL year.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    ^SSD is retired in the US, surely that won't be around much longer in the EU. Def won't be around at the end if next year.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    With the special mini-camper set now being offered with the VW Camper Van, I expect TLG is in the process of EOLing it. It actually was released roughly 6 months before the Sopwith Camel and that one is now gone. It's just a matter of time before it is gone too...
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    #21103 Delorean is back from the dead, going from "sold out" to "temp out of stock" with a ship date of 10-4. Why did they say it was "sold out"?
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    Because at the moment it was sold out.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    I can't see #10226 sold out anywhere.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,548
    ^well it was this morning. Now it is just backordered a week. Probably heading out the door soon.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited September 2014
    I almost wonder if TLG's sputtering method of EOLing sets is due to some sort of consolidation of inventory across their system. Perhaps they don't really have a good way to check inventory, so they have to have individual stores provide feedback to some central point ([email protected]) that can then turn the spigot on and off accordingly. Toss in what's still in the pipeline (either at Billund or in the process of being shipped from Billund), and I could almost see how TLG's EOL process has the broken spigot effect...
    juggles7
  • JdurgJdurg Member Posts: 18

    ^SSD is retired in the US, surely that won't be around much longer in the EU. Def won't be around at the end if next year.

    About a month back or so, for a VERY short period of time the SSD was available again on the US [email protected] site. I was debating making the purchase, and by the time I had enough beer in me to say yes, it was sold out again. I'm guessing they may have found some old stock and had it up for sale, or it was a temporary mistake on their site. I eventually had to pay $675 from a seller on Amazon to get it. A bit more than I wanted, but I can't see the price getting any cheaper any time soon. I'm very glad I made the purchase. Can't fit it in with the rest of my Lego sets, so it's on the dresser in my bedroom and it's the first thing I see when I wake up, and the last thing I see before I go to bed. :)
  • MugenPowerMugenPower Member Posts: 505
    ^^ The SSD wasn't a mistake because I purchased mine from [email protected] during that time I received it. =)
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    How the hell is Kindoms Joust still around, but HH is sold out? That's almost blasphemy.
    tamamahm
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 954
    Pitfall69 said:

    Figuring out what is going on with Lego [email protected] is like trying to figure out my wife.

    You leave yourself open to much more.....but hey, I'll be nice and not comment. ;)
  • iluvmyelementiluvmyelement Member Posts: 52
    Dougout said:

    How the hell is Kindoms Joust still around, but HH is sold out? That's almost blasphemy.

    and I'll be honest - the Tumbler selling out so fast took me by surprise. I only had money in the budget for either HH or Tumbler and I thought Tumbler would be around for a while since it just came out.....then BOOM! It's gone. :-(
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Tumbler will be back, don't worry
    TXLegoguy
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693

    Dougout said:

    How the hell is Kindoms Joust still around, but HH is sold out? That's almost blasphemy.

    and I'll be honest - the Tumbler selling out so fast took me by surprise. I only had money in the budget for either HH or Tumbler and I thought Tumbler would be around for a while since it just came out.....then BOOM! It's gone. :-(
    The Tumbler isn't gone. It has a good 3+ year shelf life ahead of it.
    TXLegoguy
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,520
    Ma1234 said:

    Dougout said:

    How the hell is Kindoms Joust still around, but HH is sold out? That's almost blasphemy.

    and I'll be honest - the Tumbler selling out so fast took me by surprise. I only had money in the budget for either HH or Tumbler and I thought Tumbler would be around for a while since it just came out.....then BOOM! It's gone. :-(
    The Tumbler isn't gone. It has a good 3+ year shelf life ahead of it.
    The question is will they do a limited edition camo version.
    TXLegoguyFarmer_JohnMathBuilder
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    The question is will they do a limited edition camo version.

    What, a limited edition, numbered 1 of 20,000 run? :)

    Those wouldn't last very long... :)
    TXLegoguy
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,520
    Limited run of 27.

    Limited run out model with different minifigs, each individually numbered.
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,520
    edited September 2014
    Basta said:

    Out of Stock on the UK and Australia sites, US is expected ship date 6th October. It makes sense to try and keep it avaliable for Halloween in the US where it is a much bigger "thing" then here in Australia.

    It says, "Out of stock, expected ship date 21 Oct 2014" on the UK site at the moment.
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,520

    Limited run of 27.

    Limited run out model with different minifigs, each individually numbered.

    More realistically 250-500 per sales region.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,264
    Jdurg said:

    I eventually had to pay $675 from a seller on Amazon to get it.

    That in the US? Because it has been and still is cheaper than that on BL.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Are we talking about a Tumbler or some other set here for $675?
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,520

    ^Are we talking about a Tumbler or some other set here for $675?

    I think they were talking about the SSD back then.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Thanks...
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    Great

    Amazon is holding all of my 21103 hostage (reserved with no reason)

    Not able to put in a removal order - message is : inv not available to be removed.


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Open a ticket...

    They might be in transit from one warehouse to another... Amazon sure does like to move stuff around...
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    opened a week ago. I get an email once in 2 days saying the issue has been forwarded to appropriate team and they will get back to me with a resolution soon. "They love their sellers"

    I guess I just have to wait.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I feel for you...

    I've used FBA from time to time, it has its ups and downs... During Christmas it is very helpful to move volume, but the downsize is you're turning over your inventory, customer service, and a lot of control of your business to Amazon, who doesn't have your own best interests at heart. :)
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    Estimated shipping date for the #10221 SSD has dramatically blown out on [email protected] AU to the 20th of November. I just know I'm going to regret not buying it but it's $700...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,904
    Can't imagine there are a lot of resellers in Australia with those prices.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    No, almost everyone is trying to sell it above retail. I'm torn on whether to buy it now or wait for double VIP.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    There are a lot of sets that I regret not having purchased, but the SSD #10221 isn't one of them.
    TheLoneTensorpharmjodAngel_CLegoFanTexasBuriedinBrickstiminchicago
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    There are a lot of sets that I regret not having purchased, but the SSD #10221 isn't one of them.

    I regret not purchasing it when it was on sale at Target for $287 or something like that...

    SSD gets a lot of flack on this forum but I think it's going to hit $900-1000 this Christmas on the aftermarket. Kind of strange looking back how all of the "resellers" on this forum were poo-pooing it last year.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    mathew said:

    There are a lot of sets that I regret not having purchased, but the SSD #10221 isn't one of them.

    I regret not purchasing it when it was on sale at Target for $287 or something like that...

    SSD gets a lot of flack on this forum but I think it's going to hit $900-1000 this Christmas on the aftermarket. Kind of strange looking back how all of the "resellers" on this forum were poo-pooing it last year.
    I managed a couple of SSD's when Amazon.fr had them discount. From a re-selling point of view it just about justified it for me, but there are plenty of other sets that will bring in better profits EOL.

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