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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    You can wait. Tumbler will be two years minimum, more likely closer to three or four as things go these days
    Pitfall69vitreolumcloaked7
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/14693038657/in/contacts/

    Read the first comment, the exo-suit is clearly not gone. :)
  • SupersympaSupersympa Member Posts: 534
    Dear LEGO customer,

    Thanks for ordering the LEGO® Exo Suit.

    We’re sorry you haven’t received any emails from us about your order. Due to a hiccup in our system, a number of emails haven’t been sent in the past few days. The LEGO Shop team is working very hard to solve the problem and hope to have it fixed soon. You can always find out the status of your LEGO Shop orders online by visiting:

    http://shop.lego.com/account/orderStatus.jsp


    The Exo Suit has proven to be a very popular set and we’ve had a lot more orders than we expected. We don’t have any in stock at the moment, and we’re working hard to make more.

    Our warehouse is expecting a new delivery around the 11th of September. If you were planning to give the set as a present, we’ll be happy to send your LEGO builder a message from the team to explain the delay.

    If you’d like to cancel your order, please let us know and you won’t be charged. At the time you place an order with us your credit card is sent out for a temporary pre-approval authorization on the entire amount of the order. The actual charge won’t be made until your order ships.

    Please let us know if you need anything else.

    Kind regards,
    Your LEGO Service team
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,481



    I think RI will definitely be back, although I do hate it when TLG does these sorts of things (aka, minecraft). Not to be sexist, but I think TLG wants to get girls into Lego as much as possible (a huge revenue opportunity for them) and won't let this type of set die easily.

    For what reason? They don't have any other similar sets (that is, female minifig sets) they can buy once they get this one. If that is their intention, then they need to start producing lots of other small city type sets that are female minifig based to cash in while the going is good.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,404
    ^The reason (as given in my post) is that there is a huge financial opportunity getting more girls into Lego. TLG has done very well with the Friends theme, and I see the RI set as a foray into non-Friends themed sets for girls. I wouldn't have purchased an RI set except that it was a set I thought my daughter would like; I can tell you my sons have zero interest in the set. The Exo suit will be long gone by the time the RI set is EOL'd.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,481

    ^The reason (as given in my post) is that there is a huge financial opportunity getting more girls into Lego. TLG has done very well with the Friends theme, and I see the RI set as a foray into non-Friends themed sets for girls.

    I agree, but which sets are the female minifigure set going to get them into? There aren't any similar sets - which seems to be a mistake on lego's part. The hype over this set will die down, lego should capitalise while it is hot.

    Unless, of course, longer term they do want girls to stick to Friends.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    6862 is now showing sold out at [email protected] US. Target & Amazon were just recently restocked.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^Edit, now showing a future ship date:)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,654
    CCC said:

    ^The reason (as given in my post) is that there is a huge financial opportunity getting more girls into Lego. TLG has done very well with the Friends theme, and I see the RI set as a foray into non-Friends themed sets for girls.

    I agree, but which sets are the female minifigure set going to get them into? There aren't any similar sets - which seems to be a mistake on lego's part. The hype over this set will die down, lego should capitalise while it is hot.

    Unless, of course, longer term they do want girls to stick to Friends.
    Male or female.. Money is money, and that RI set is obviously in demand, even if they are being bought by resellers. I would be surprised if LEGO does not make more and make them in larger quantities, they are not expensive and I'm guessing 20 USD for 3 figures and some parts and LEGO is cleaning up on those in terms of profit.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,986
    CCC said:



    I think RI will definitely be back, although I do hate it when TLG does these sorts of things (aka, minecraft). Not to be sexist, but I think TLG wants to get girls into Lego as much as possible (a huge revenue opportunity for them) and won't let this type of set die easily.

    For what reason? They don't have any other similar sets (that is, female minifig sets) they can buy once they get this one. If that is their intention, then they need to start producing lots of other small city type sets that are female minifig based to cash in while the going is good.
    I think the reason is simply publicity. It is good publicity for them. Look, they are a great company because they made 3 female scientists. It makes more sense to ride it as long as they can. It is a fine line, though, that Lego will have to balance with both RI and exosuit. Do not overstock, but supply the right amount of stock.

    ^The reason (as given in my post) is that there is a huge financial opportunity getting more girls into Lego. TLG has done very well with the Friends theme, and I see the RI set as a foray into non-Friends themed sets for girls. I wouldn't have purchased an RI set except that it was a set I thought my daughter would like; I can tell you my sons have zero interest in the set. The Exo suit will be long gone by the time the RI set is EOL'd.

    Personally, I do not see this as a foray at all into non-Friends themed sets at all. (As an aside, my son actually was very disappointed that I built the vignette with the dino.) All my kids have liked the set, but it isn't going to lend itself to hours of play. I usually have that feeling about any set that is $20 and under.

    Yes, it is a nice little set to display, or to have a bit of fun with as a small set.
    I would argue the one true foray into non-Friends/non-lady figs themed sets for girls was HP.


  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,654
    Oh, and GE is back for purchase again at [email protected] US, but on backorder. Interestingly enough, so is the Pet Shop (on backorder that is)
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    For the record, they are called minidolls, not ladyfigs

    In any case, the Harry Potter theme predates the introduction of the minidoll, so at present we simply have no idea whether LEGO ever intends to introduce any girl targeted themes using the minifigure. As it stands, aside from a marketing/publicity one off set like the RI, all of LEGO's sets targeted specifically to girls feature minidolls, while those targeted to boys utilize the classic minifigure, as do those that are more gender-neutral

    Only time will tell what will eventually happen, but all signs currently point to LEGO being "all in" on the minidoll when it comes to girls

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,404
    While girls are and can be scientists, they are not the overwhelming majority of scientists (as is seemed to be indicated by the RI set). When you look at other themes (with the exception of LotR and the Hobbit), there is usually a mix of the sexes (some more, some less). So my conclusion is that the RI set is either targeted to sell to girls (my opinion) OR it's just a PC set (due to its one-sided chromosomal representation). Perhaps TLG also released a "boy scientists" set somewhere in the past, but I'm unaware of it.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    edited August 2014
    I think it's a bit of both. An opportunity to earn some free positive publicity and weaken the arguments used against them previously was probably too good to pass up. And if they could bring more females into the fold by selling this set to them, even better

    I do think it's targeted much more towards adults than children however, whether that is adults buying it for themselves to display or to adults buying it to give to their daughters or nieces or whom ever
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,986
    dougts said:

    For the record, they are called minidolls, not ladyfigs

    How about that! Thanks. Ladyfig is so commonly used, that I had thought that was what they were called.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    ^ it seems to be a term used primarily by the "anti-Friends" crowd in a mostly derisive manner. I'm not lumping you into that groups, just noting the places I've seem the "ladyfig" term thrown about.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^You can't just say "ladyfig" anyway since there are male "minidolls" included in the Disney Princess sets and at least 1 in a Friends set.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,438
    You can just add Manfig to the mix. That doesn't sound terrible at all
    Pitfall69tamamahm
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,793
    ^ I propose gentlefig.
    Rainstorm26tamamahmFarmer_JohndougtsCoraHarrison
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,986
    edited August 2014
    dougts said:

    ^ it seems to be a term used primarily by the "anti-Friends" crowd in a mostly derisive manner. I'm not lumping you into that groups, just noting the places I've seem the "ladyfig" term thrown about.

    It is interesting, dougts.

    From my quick googling, it looks like in the beginning people were not quite sure what to call them. Ladyfig was used on Lego sites when Friends started coming out, which is where I heard the term.
    http://brickset.com/article/2209

    What I had not realized...It looks like once Lego Friends became more established, minidoll was used by Lego and subsequent Lego fan sites began to use it. It does look like ladyfig continued to be used by anti-Friend sites. At the same time, it was used by some mainstream sites as well, which confuses the matter some.

    I always enjoyed this BusinessWeek article. It uses the terms lady minifigures, ladyfigs and mini-doll figures. While they have quotes and input from Lego representatives, there is never quite the direct quote of them referencing the name. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/lego-is-for-girls-12142011.html#p4

    Anyway, interesting.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,481
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^You can't just say "ladyfig" anyway since there are male "minidolls" included in the Disney Princess sets and at least 1 in a Friends set.

    I think ladyfig describes the male characters quite well.
    Pitfall69BumblepantsRainstorm26
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    There are 6 more new minecraft sets out this year. Will #21105 be the most sort after as it EOLed first or will it be forgotten when there are so many other minecraft sets available?
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Arent the new ones the minifig scale ones?
  • PoMoPinkPoMoPink Member Posts: 275
    I've just run to Toys R Us in a panic to pick up a #21105 (along with a free Geoffrey and packet of Refreshers to tip it over £30 to use a £5 off voucher) just in case they really disappear.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Sand green supernova just spotted.
    Bumblepants
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Ebay Uk member n***l (31) spent yeaterday buying 20+ #21109 at £45 each.
    Reminds of the guy who bought 100s of #41999. How much higher can the #21109 go? There should be another batch in September but I bet they sell out fast.

    Today a lego store employee told me to expect more #21110 in September.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    @JamesJT: I can't fathom why anyone is selling 21109 for £45 delivered (as some are). You're talking £4 to post this signed for, almost £6 cut between ebay and paypal. So there's a fiver left in it, and you've got to pack it and take the time to post it (and maybe go out to a Lego shop to buy it in the first place).

    Is the Sept batch pretty much spoken for already with all the backorders we have outstanding?
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    #21109 was available yesterday on UK [email protected], sold out again now. Limit was 5 with an end of September delivery date. Was that the 2nd batch?
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    ^ it might be the 2nd batch delayed further (was expecting start of Sept), might be a third batch.
  • legodudelegodude Member Posts: 137
    6866 is gaining value fast. I was hoping 6862 would too but it hasn't. Any recommendations on the current SH lineup? I am thinking X-men again.
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,274
    ^ #6862 is likely to be a slow climb since along with the Batcave it has been out longer than most of the SH sets. It has also been $13-15 regularly and is still found in places. Didn't just up and disappear like #6866. Long term it might gain some good value if the Superman and Wonder woman stay exclusive to it, but will have to see.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    JamesJT said:

    #21109 was available yesterday on UK [email protected], sold out again now. Limit was 5 with an end of September delivery date. Was that the 2nd batch?

    I really, really wish Lego would have an "email when the item is back in stock button" like TRU and other sites have. It would be sooooooooo helpful.
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic Member Posts: 342
    SSD #10221 marked as retired in the US
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337

    SSD #10221 marked as retired in the US

    Thanks brickaholic! It was deleted from the site for awhile. First retirement for what is going to be a bumper 2014. Xmas 2016 is going to be fun :)
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic Member Posts: 342
    Why, apparently it is out for another 3 years in the EU ;)
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    edited August 2014

    SSD #10221 marked as retired in the US

    Thanks brickaholic! It was deleted from the site for awhile. First retirement for what is going to be a bumper 2014. Xmas 2016 is going to be fun :)
    Why wait for 2016? If you pick right, 2015 should be awesome based on what should be leaving us this year.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    For the first year all the weak hands give their sets away for next to no profit on ebay. 2016 and beyond is the optimal time to liquidate 2014 retirees. Just look at all those sellers who gave away their Harry Potter sets already and those giving away FBs right now.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    I don't have many FBs but mine are boxed up for 2-3 years minimum :)
  • jonboy2000jonboy2000 Member Posts: 259
    I still think in 2+ years time there will be plenty of FB's around and that the price will not have risen that much(at least by other larger sets of the same era).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454

    For the first year all the weak hands give their sets away for next to no profit on ebay. 2016 and beyond is the optimal time to liquidate 2014 retirees. Just look at all those sellers who gave away their Harry Potter sets already and those giving away FBs right now.

    Yeah, I'm actually unloading the rest of my HP right now. FB is locked away for awhile longer :)

  • ShibShib Member Posts: 5,453
    ^i think that's a smart move. If TLG do sets based on magical creatures when it comes out I can see the logic for them in doing a couple of HP rehashes to make the most of the licence.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    For the first year all the weak hands give their sets away for next to no profit on ebay. 2016 and beyond is the optimal time to liquidate 2014 retirees. Just look at all those sellers who gave away their Harry Potter sets already and those giving away FBs right now.

    If you're looking to squeeze every dollar possible out of every purchase regardless of how long it takes, I guess that makes sense.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Shib said:

    ^i think that's a smart move. If TLG do sets based on magical creatures when it comes out I can see the logic for them in doing a couple of HP rehashes to make the most of the licence.

    That is my reasoning as well. I'm certainly not giving them away, but I'm just listing them here and there and see how it goes.

    For the first year all the weak hands give their sets away for next to no profit on ebay. 2016 and beyond is the optimal time to liquidate 2014 retirees. Just look at all those sellers who gave away their Harry Potter sets already and those giving away FBs right now.

    If you're looking to squeeze every dollar possible out of every purchase regardless of how long it takes, I guess that makes sense.
    If you have the patience and the storage; that is the best way to get top dollar.

  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited August 2014

    For the first year all the weak hands give their sets away for next to no profit on ebay. 2016 and beyond is the optimal time to liquidate 2014 retirees. Just look at all those sellers who gave away their Harry Potter sets already and those giving away FBs right now.

    Sometimes high volume and inventory turnover is preferable and more profitable overall than maximizing the profit of each item. So it's not simply the case of being "weak" or "noobish". In fact, I think you'll find that a lot of the biggest resellers operate this way.

    All you need to do is look at the reseller challenge, and you'll see quick profit-taking has resulted in a working capital 3-5x more than initial investment.
    dougtspharmjodmadforLEGOCircleKxeeeejMathBuilder
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,404
    ^Certainly not TRU...they go for aftermarket prices right after sets are released, which is a novel approach I guess. ;-)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited August 2014
    rocao said:

    All you need to do is look at the reseller challenge, and you'll see quick profit-taking has resulted in a working capital 3-5x more than initial investment.

    So in this reseller challenge do the resellers have a set hourly rate that they pay themselves for listing, packing, shipping and follow up customer service that they make sure to take out of the profits?

    You won't grow broke taking profits but you won't grow rich taking a small profit on your winners either (unless of course you have infinite time and free labor).
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    ^ If you take a small profit per set but are able to increase volume, it stands to reason that you could, in fact, do quite well. This concept isn't new as it's the fundamental principle of retail in any competitive environment.

    I think we all recognize that there is an initial price spike when a set retires and appreciation after that typically slows. The strategy of quickly turning over inventory would hope to always ride this spike and becomes dependent on there always being the next thing to reinvest in.

    At any rate, my main point was to counter your claim that selling within the first year was indicative of weakness and yielded next to no profit.
    MathBuilder
  • xeeeejxeeeej Member Posts: 71
    ^^
    There is no one correct way to resell LEGO. You don't know it; I don't know it; it doesn't exist. Everyone's budget and goals are different, and thus strategies will differ as well.

    I buy as much as I can afford on clearance for quick flips to build capital. Then I reinvest some % of that back into quick flips, and another % into long-term holds (exclusives). I cash out as needed to pay off credit cards, etc, and continue to grow my inventory of (hopefully) long-term winners.

    As for the labor/hourly rate, I don't track it. Why would I? It would take me more TIME to track my time, thus eating into my profits. As for the reseller challenge specifically, I have purchased 9 unique sets for quick flipping for 102 sets total. I've sold about 70 of them. I'll let you do your own fuzzy math on how long to list each one (5 minutes/unique) and pack/ship each (3 minutes). The initial amount is now worth $3,800. Such a waste of time. :(
    SirKevbagslego007dougtsCircleKmonkeyhangerBumblepantsEKSam
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    edited August 2014
    ^ and then we have the very small fish, like me, I don't really count my time, I just resell enough to subsidise what I buy for me. I got shot of 3 x Mars Rovers for £70 each on ebay last month, and after fees and postage my UCS Tumbler is more than covered. With my logic, I got a Tumbler for £68. It's enough for me. Stops wor lass moaning when she is in agreement that I only "wasted" £68 (£3 x £25 spent on the Rovers yielded £168 after fees and postage expenses) instead of £160.

    There is a point at which I do register my time - at the point where people ebay new sets for coppers more than RRP after fees and expenses are considered. Like those selling Exo suits for £45 delivered and making £4. In my mind they are crazy, but they still do it. I am a quick flipper, I tend not to keep anything longer than a year, but am happy to double my money after fees.
    xeeeej said:

    ^^
    There is no one correct way to resell LEGO. You don't know it; I don't know it; it doesn't exist. Everyone's budget and goals are different, and thus strategies will differ as well.

    Spot on!

    xeeeej
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,481
    Especially on the reseller challenge, time / wages should not be included. It is not really any different to volunteering for your favourite charity.
    Pitfall69
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