Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

stevemack

Interesting... #21105 retired maybe? I would have though #21102 would have gone first?

CCC

#21102 just keeps on selling and selling. I guess because of the figures with it. Aren't the other sets just seen as an add on to the first? Or do people see them as stand alone.

doriansdad

brickupdate said:

So The Brick Show on YouTube is reporting from a "very reliable source" that the Death Start is slated to retire in Q1 2016

A certain hot selling camper van also got extended.

prevere

It was pointed out to me that both Research Institute and Exo-Suit cannot be purchased at all right now from [email protected] Could these really be done for good already?

doriansdad

If they were a limited number run then yes both could be done for good already.

madforLEGO

I doubt the Research institute and Exo suit are gone for good. My guess is they have too many orders to process that were back-ordered and instead of trying to do backorders until 2015 they probably are going to stop and allow the factory to catch its breath. Just a guess, but I fail to see how LEGO would not want to keep selling these as they are both wildly popular. And please do not compare it to the Rover. The Rover is not minifig scale and was a License with NASA and maybe NASA only wanted x built, or that is what was agreed to. But I do not think the rover is a good comparison here.

In any case, as nice as there are, they are not nice enough to overpay on eBay for them (to me) so I'm not freaking out and just am being patient.

Shib

Seeing as there isn't anything to stop TLG doing second production runs of either I would also be surprised if thats it now. To run out so quickly and not make more would not make much finical sense when they could just do another batch as they are clearly still in demand.

cheshirecat

I suspect the line between in demand and stock sitting on shelves is fairly narrow and perhaps less than a production run, with that harder to judge with speculators buying up stock. I suspect a second batch of 20 something thousand exosuits might end up with most sitting on the shelves. If lego are considering a second run of either I would expect it to be the research institute just because of the bad publicity of having that one sold out.

CCC

If it is mainly investors buying them up and if another batch is produced, then there is also the possibility of bad publicity of having the Research Institute sitting on shelves not selling and having to discount it to move it. That's if it doesn't sell to the more general public at RRP.

There's obviously a lot of ifs in deciding how many to produce.

If further batches are produced, it will clearly be less of a good investment. And that may deter investors buying on release at RRP on future Ideas sets. And I'm not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing for lego.

cheshirecat

I don't think lego would mind the research institute sitting on shelves, as its low price would make it a nice slow burner steadily selling the odd one in store. More importantly it helps justify their approach to friends. Conversely having it sold out within a week suggests (to the public at least) a huge demand for these kind of sets with increasing voices demanding it.

Where as a sold out exo suit is just an ideas success with most wanting them having got them and lego having all the money. Six months time it will be largely forgotten about (so long as they don't advertise it in a brochure!) in terms of demand.

tamamahm

I agree that determining how many to make can be a very tricky thing and there are many factors that go into it. It really is a balancing game, which can be very difficult to gauge when resellers are in the field. (Not a ding.) The 19.99 price tag, though, is very nice. It is right at that line where I will pick up more than the one set I started with, whenever it comes back into stock.

madforLEGO

I'm guessing the Exo Suit sold out due to speculators and those looking to army build for the green Space guys.. err guy and gal.
Same I think for the Institute, speculators and also those who wanted to get the set for their kids. However not making more due to speculators make no sense. LEGO has reported they do not worry about the secondary market (as they have said in the past) if a newly released set sells out they have no problem making it and making it and making it until there is a wealth of them on the market (I think it took the Minecraft set for them to realize that).
Again, LEGO has tripped up our theories and speculation in the past, but I do not see them saying 'Well that was it' for both of these sets when they sell out with about 1 week of release.

ecmo47

On the Exo-suit and Research Inst, I wonder if Lego has limited the amount of royalities that they pay out to the creator. Perhaps when the amount is reached, the set is done. Sure would be interesting to see the contract that the creators have to sign.

Brickarmor

^Now that's an intriguing theory. Or a theory of intrigue.

madforLEGO

ecmo47 said:

On the Exo-suit and Research Inst, I wonder if Lego has limited the amount of royalities that they pay out to the creator. Perhaps when the amount is reached, the set is done. Sure would be interesting to see the contract that the creators have to sign.

The amount a creator makes is miniscule compared to the amount LEGO makes on each model so I doubt it is that.

Shib

I think the old Cuusoo site said that he creators receive a percent of the profit, and I think it was something between 1% and 5% but I might have imagined that. As a percentage though it would mean that there no reason for TLG to stop selling a set because of the royalties to be paid.

CCC

cheshirecat said:

I don't think lego would mind the research institute sitting on shelves, as its low price would make it a nice slow burner steadily selling the odd one in store.

My point was more if it is overproduced (from not really knowing the true demand), and needed to be sold at a discount it may be damaging for the view that more female minifigs in general sets are wanted. If lego gets the feedback that they produced loads of the female minifig set and they sit unsold, it could be damaging.

cheshirecat said:

More importantly it helps justify their approach to friends.

I don't think they need to justify their approach to Friends. There was a hole in the market and they have filled it exceptionally well. Many girls love the Friends range. I don't think it matters what adults say about it being sexist, it is no more sexist than any other pastel coloured toy. And it sells to that proportion of the market that want pink construction toys.

cheshirecat said:

Conversely having it sold out within a week suggests (to the public at least) a huge demand for these kind of sets with increasing voices demanding it.

Yes, I agree with that. Although it would be interesting to know who is demanding it. Resellers just wanting it to sell it on at a profit, adults wanting it for display, adults wanting it to prove a point to lego, or kids actually wanting to play with it (and whether they are boys or girls).

Shib

While it's impossible to know what peoples intentions are for a set they are buying it does seem to me that both the eco suit and research institute are being bought predominantly by adults. I've seen a lot of comments on exosuit sales of can't wait to build this and a lot of similar comments on the RI but also far more often hear stuff along the lines of 'can't wait to give this to my 7 year old" said of the RI.
The one thing that does stick in my mind is that I can see the point in buying multiple exosuits. people who want to have an army of exosuits and the green pseudo-classic space minifigures (I don't like calling them neoclassic because of the yellow faces) but the RI seems to be more a one off type purchase. I think the bigger draw for the RI is to add more scenes, which doesn't give much incentive to buy multiples.

cheshirecat

^ I agree, they don't need to justify friends, but there are people out there who vocally say they do. Having the RI sitting on the shelves would help shut down their arguments, the exact reverse of how having it sold out strengthens those same peoples arguments. And whilst it might be interesting to know who is buying the RI it has no weighting on the impact that having the RI sold out causes LEGO.

Of the exo-suit and the research institute I actually see the exo-suit as a much more niche product, and whilst its likely that both would gather dust on the shelves if LEGO doubled production, one of those has a not-inconsiderable political upside for LEGO.

CCC

I'd much rather them not produce another run of Research Institute yet at the same time increase the number of female heads (and, as I've said many times elsewhere, gender neutral torsos where appropriate) across the range of other sets. That would be a great legacy for the set and also aligned to the original female minifigs proposal on the cuusoo site - to increase the variety of female minifigs.

It would probably be completely missed by the press of course, and no doubt hardly anyone from the general public would notice that there was an increased number of female minifigs in sets.

juggles7

It's not being missed by the press. USA Today covered the story 2 days ago, and the focus was on female minifigures.

CCC

What story? The release of the set or the inclusion of more minifigs across other sets?

prevere

My 9-year-old daughter just finished science camp this week. Time to break out the RI and create a modular building around it for the city.

juggles7

CCC, rather than me posting a link, just google these terms: usa today lego research institute.

JamesJT

#21110 now selling for £35 on ebay UK!

theLEGOman

One at £59.99 on ebay on the brickset link above, yikes.

dougts

I can't help but feel that LEGO has brought far too much of this male/female no-win situation upon themselves by their continued shift in emphasis from the BUILD toward the FIGURE. I get the emphasis, at least to a degree, in the IP-related themes but on the in-house lines, I think the shift has been unfortunate. LEGO is moving closer and closer toward being action figures with nearly pre-fabbed playsets and farther and farther away from their roots as building kits with a wide variety of creative potential.

but of course, this has all been good for the bottom line, as it seems I'm clearly in the minority here, and most LEGO fans seems more interested in the accessories (figures), rather than the construction sets themselves

pharmjod

@dougts I agree, which is why I still prefer the creator sets ultimately over nearly every other line. Closer to "pure" LEGO for me.

Pitfall69

I see the Research Institute arguments have spilled into this thread. I'm not surprised ;)

I never purchased it. It didn't appeal to me. I do agree that the minifigures are becoming more popular than the build themselves.

May I ask a question that derails this conversation? I'm wondering how long the Kings Castle and Kingdoms Joust will last?

dougts

I thought joust was done a year ago but here it still sits. My guess is it goes end of this year along with castle

Thanos75

Target still has the Joust set online for $120....

tamamahm

Honestly, I am surprised Joust is not gone already. I like dougts theory about end of year for both of those sets.

Pitfall69

One would think, but they are both still hanging around.

bp10030

#21110 labeled with "sold out" at [email protected]

vwong19

I bought 2x Exosuits and 2x research institutes on Day 1 to bump my order above the $100 threshold. My intention for RI's was to use that as a neat little birthday gift in the future to no one in particular. Now if the RI is gone, it will move from the spare bricks/future gifts pile to potential investment/resale section of my collection. It certainly would be dissapointing for RI to be done.

Dougout

After what happened with the Rover, I won't be surprised if the Exo Suit and Research Institute don't stick around much longer.

CircleK

^ I think the Exo Suit will be around for a bit, especially with reports of it momentarily showing up on Amazon and being available from places like Target. TRU even had it on their site although it was never available for purchase. The RI may already be history though. Not sure if it means anything, but [email protected] has it listed as sold out in the US.

I wonder how many people bought RI while getting the EXO Suit not b/c they really wanted it, but b/c they were just trying to hit the free shipping limit. That's why I bought one anyways.

mathew

Dougout said:

After what happened with the Rover, I won't be surprised if the Exo Suit and Research Institute don't stick around much longer.

I don't know about the Research Institute, but the Exosuit is available on Amazon now (well not right now because resellers have cleared it out). My opinion is that both sets will be around for awhile, but in extremely limited supply. As I said, both will be pulling Minecraft numbers this Christmas on the aftermarket.

tamamahm

CircleK said:

^ I think the Exo Suit will be around for a bit, especially with reports of it momentarily showing up on Amazon and being available from places like Target. TRU even had it on their site although it was never available for purchase. The RI may already be history though. Not sure if it means anything, but [email protected] has it listed as sold out in the US.

I wonder how many people bought RI while getting the EXO Suit not b/c they really wanted it, but b/c they were just trying to hit the free shipping limit. That's why I bought one anyways.

The later point is something I considered. On the flip, in store sales of both sets were going strong when I was in their buying mine. In that case there free shipping did not matter. ;-)

vwong19

Also 2x Exosuits + 2x RI to get free mini coupe poly.

pharmjod

Research Institute has already been on TRU's site and wiped out in minutes because they had no limits.

bp10030

Both sets Exo and RI are sold out at SH.europe...

Diggydoes

I see some crazy prices ahead for RI! On ebay.de the cheapest is 69.99€ (retail 19.99€),don't know if it sells but this is getting (already) insane!!!

madforLEGO

pharmjod said:

Research Institute has already been on TRU's site and wiped out in minutes because they had no limits.

And this tells me that more are on the way as retailers would likely not have them. Alos Exo Suit is back on Amazon (from Amazon directly) in the US as of this time.

cheshirecat

Although remember tru had #41999.

madforLEGO

cheshirecat said:

Although remember tru had #41999.

#41999 was also championed specifically as a 'limited edition' set, RI has had no such billing

piratemania7

I think Joust is EOL this winter; whether it be end of 14 or beginning of 15 who knows; but I think it will go silently unlike say the GE.

As for kings castle we still have time on that; I think another year or so until LEGO at least begins setting the stage for the next Castle ensemble.

edgarallanpoe1422

I was very surprised to see #10211 Grand Emporium spontaneously go back into stock on Lego S&H Australia, where it had previously been listed as 'sold out'. When I noticed that you could no longer add it to your cart I was 100% convinced that that was the end of the road for it, in Australia anyway. But no, I visit a department store and they've got a dozen on the floor and it's 'Available Now' on S&H. This greatly confounded my expectations. Is it a normal thing to happen?

stevemack

Yes quite normal :) It's not gone until it says it's retired :(

Farmer_John

cheshirecat said:

Although remember tru had #41999.

I think RI will definitely be back, although I do hate it when TLG does these sorts of things (aka, minecraft). Not to be sexist, but I think TLG wants to get girls into Lego as much as possible (a huge revenue opportunity for them) and won't let this type of set die easily.

To be honest, I didn't even know they existed until I went to order my Exo Suit and saw them there in the list. The chemist looked like a great gift for my daughter, so I grabbed a set.

The main thing going through my head these days (Lego-related anyway) is whether I snag a Tumbler right off the bat (pardon the pun), or wait until the potential double VIP points in October. Does anyone think the Tumbler will be a short run for TLG or be around for a year or two? In short, is it worth trying to be greedy and wait for the extra VIP points on the Tumbler?