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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,188
    wilbur said:

    2

    Thanks!

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,657
    MathBuilder said:


    My fifth question was: Will Arkham retire before Orthanc? And the answer was: Ask again later.

    They now have data.

    Unfortunately it seems inconclusive though.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Another set that I'm surprised to see still out there is #6862 Superman vs. Power Armor Lex. It's been out 2.5 years now...

    I also noticed that there's another wave of new Technic sets being released in the next week. I wouldn't be surprised if the older Technic sets are on the way out. TLG is usually pretty predictable in their schedule to EOL Technic sets.
  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    TLG US has Super Star Destroyer as limit 1 " Out of stock, expected ship date 14 Sep 2014".
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    It appears that the PotC sets are really starting to appreciate. Even the smaller PotC sets have gone up dramatically. It should be interesting to see where PotC and the Imperial Flagship go before the release of the next Pirate theme early next year.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,112
    edited July 2014
    Farmer_John said:

    It appears that the PotC sets are really starting to appreciate. Even the smaller PotC sets have gone up dramatically. It should be interesting to see where PotC and the Imperial Flagship go before the release of the next Pirate theme early next year.

    Are you referring to prices in US or other? Because I do not see PoTC really increasing all that well in the US. At least, I see them very little, if over, retail. Im sure if you got them on sale they are probably OK, but Aside from the ships of course, I do ont see any of the other sets taking off.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    legogregors said:

    TLG US has Super Star Destroyer as limit 1 " Out of stock, expected ship date 14 Sep 2014".

    Scooped some more but to be honest I would rather sell modulars at the $350 price point than attempt to move a large amount of $800 sets.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    madforLEGO said:

    Farmer_John said:

    It appears that the PotC sets are really starting to appreciate. Even the smaller PotC sets have gone up dramatically. It should be interesting to see where PotC and the Imperial Flagship go before the release of the next Pirate theme early next year.

    Are you referring to prices in US or other? Because I do not see PoTC really increasing all that well in the US. At least, I see them very little, if over, retail. Im sure if you got them on sale they are probably OK, but Aside from the ships of course, I do ont see any of the other sets taking off.
    Both ships have done really well and are around $40 (USD) higher than when I sold mine off earlier in the year. As far as the smaller sets; if they went up in price, the increase is negligible.

  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    TLG US has GE as "Out of stock, expected ship date 15 Sep 2014". Has anyone seen this level of stock fluctuation recently? I would have guessed the molding machines would be working on new inventory for the holidays.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    legogregors said:

    I would have guessed the molding machines would be working on new inventory for the holidays.

    The molding machines are working on the new modular to be released this Jan.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,112
    legogregors said:

    TLG US has GE as "Out of stock, expected ship date 15 Sep 2014". Has anyone seen this level of stock fluctuation recently? I would have guessed the molding machines would be working on new inventory for the holidays.

    My guess is they still have packing material (ie Boxes) and instructions for these sets as most parts I think to the GE are not really set specific, so I'm sure they can make more. I still think has one foot out the door.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,657
    Farmer_John said:

    Another set that I'm surprised to see still out there is #6862 Superman vs. Power Armor Lex. It's been out 2.5 years now...

    It's a strange one, it has been gone a long time in UK and Europe.
    Pitfall69
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    CCC said:

    Farmer_John said:

    Another set that I'm surprised to see still out there is #6862 Superman vs. Power Armor Lex. It's been out 2.5 years now...

    It's a strange one, it has been gone a long time in UK and Europe.
    This was due to go but they postponed the batman vs superman movie so TLG could not release the new sets from that movie...batcave also came back for this reason. The superheroes line is the best selling line in the USA that is why they were brought them back here.

    Pitfall69
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    doriansdad said:

    CCC said:

    Farmer_John said:

    Another set that I'm surprised to see still out there is #6862 Superman vs. Power Armor Lex. It's been out 2.5 years now...

    It's a strange one, it has been gone a long time in UK and Europe.
    This was due to go but they postponed the batman vs superman movie so TLG could not release the new sets from that movie...batcave also came back for this reason. The superheroes line is the best selling line in the USA that is why they were brought them back here.

    Interesting. I picked up another Lex Mech from Target on clearance and think it's a great set. I still see Batcaves everywhere. They don't seem to be moving but that might change this upcoming Christmas.
  • luckie_reubsluckie_reubs Member Posts: 299
    edited July 2014
    CCC said:

    Farmer_John said:

    Another set that I'm surprised to see still out there is #6862 Superman vs. Power Armor Lex. It's been out 2.5 years now...

    It's a strange one, it has been gone a long time in UK and Europe.
    It's out there, but it's hard to find. It's not in any of our Walmarts or Targets around here; I want to pick up a second one for parts and figs, but I can't put my hands on it anywhere!
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    edited July 2014
    Farmer_John said:

    It appears that the PotC sets are really starting to appreciate. Even the smaller PotC sets have gone up dramatically. It should be interesting to see where PotC and the Imperial Flagship go before the release of the next Pirate theme early next year.

    I didn't think the IF did as well as most thought it would. I expected it to be £400 by now but you can still pick them up at less than £300. The BP was a far better performer considering you could pick 2 of them up at the right times for the same price as an IF and not have to hold them as long. That was one which I still haven't worked out.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^I was able to get an IF for less than $130 during the BF sale of 2011. I do think the BP and QAR will go up even further with the release of the next wave of Pirates.

    The reason I thought the PotC sets have done so well is that I can't get any of the non-ship sets for less than double RRP. Some like the #4181 Isla de la Muerta are even higher...probably because of the minifigs.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, I think the PotC sets have some of the nicest minifigs of any theme. I got the sets for that very reason.
  • chuckpchuckp NYMember Posts: 684
    The Grand Emporium is back in stock (US) with a ship date now of Oct. 4th.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited July 2014
    Farmer_John said:

    ^I was able to get an IF for less than $130 during the BF sale of 2011. I do think the BP and QAR will go up even further with the release of the next wave of Pirates.

    The reason I thought the PotC sets have done so well is that I can't get any of the non-ship sets for less than double RRP. Some like the #4181 Isla de la Muerta are even higher...probably because of the minifigs.

    cloaked7 said:

    ^ Yup, I think the PotC sets have some of the nicest minifigs of any theme. I got the sets for that very reason.

    As with many licenced sets, the minifigures drive the sets. That being said; the Black Pearl and QAR are nice ships. I have a hunch that The Black Pearl will get rehashed, but with new minifigures from the new movie(s). I don't think this will devalue the current BP all that much.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    It really helps to understand the value of a set if you actually build the thing for yourself. I just remember building IS and QAR and thinking, these are magnificent ships and well worth the money to purchase, even at double RRP or higher.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    I haven't built my IF yet but the QAR and BP are my favorite of all the pirate ships (and I have them all). They were both really well done. I like the classic Pirate stuff but it just doesn't look real to me but the PotC ships were fantastic. Glad I was able to get them cheap because I would have to buy them now even with how much they are.
    Pitfall69
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited July 2014
    CCC said:

    Farmer_John said:

    Another set that I'm surprised to see still out there is #6862 Superman vs. Power Armor Lex. It's been out 2.5 years now...

    It's a strange one, it has been gone a long time in UK and Europe.
    #6862 must have been a stinker.{amazon lists it as #6 best seller so people are hoarding on it} they produced so much thinking that it would be like the #4526 ; #4529 series... and it went bust hence still hanging around :D

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    The Iron Man 4529 is one I still kick myself on. If I remember correctly, I was waiting for clearance and it never made it that far. One day, every store and website were just out.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    prevere said:

    It really helps to understand the value of a set if you actually build the thing for yourself. I just remember building IS and QAR and thinking, these are magnificent ships and well worth the money to purchase, even at double RRP or higher.

    I have built the IF, but not the QAR or BP. The IF was a lot of fun to build, but being a perfectionist I had to complete its armament by adding four additional cannons and a lifeboat. I mean, what's an Imperial Flagship without a full compliment of cannons?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited July 2014
    Farmer_John said:

    The IF was a lot of fun to build, but being a perfectionist I had to complete its armament by adding four additional cannons and a lifeboat. I mean, what's an Imperial Flagship without a full compliment of cannons?

    I see people say this a lot, but if the IF were real, four cannons would have likely been a full complement. Very few ships would have actually been armed to be able to fire out of both sides simultaneously as cannons were heavy enough to considerably impact your speed and, if you were actually in a situation where you NEEDED to be firing in two directions, you were probably screwed anyway.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited July 2014
    Haven't you ever seen Pirates of the Caribbean? :-)

    Actually, the HMS Victory (the most famous British "Ship of the Line"...see image below) employed 104 cannon which could fire from three levels on both sides (and the rear) simultaneously. The largest ship of the line (I think it was Turkish) employed 128 cannons.

    I would really like to see (and may someday MOC) an HMS Victory-type Lego ship. What a beauty!
    y2josh
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    prevere said:

    The Iron Man 4529 is one I still kick myself on. If I remember correctly, I was waiting for clearance and it never made it that far. One day, every store and website were just out.

    i can understand.
    i kick myself for not getting extra multiples of them. i have single copies of each purchased from TLG. :)
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    y2josh said:

    Farmer_John said:

    The IF was a lot of fun to build, but being a perfectionist I had to complete its armament by adding four additional cannons and a lifeboat. I mean, what's an Imperial Flagship without a full compliment of cannons?

    I see people say this a lot, but if the IF were real, four cannons would have likely been a full complement. Very few ships would have actually been armed to be able to fire out of both sides simultaneously as cannons were heavy enough to considerably impact your speed and, if you were actually in a situation where you NEEDED to be firing in two directions, you were probably screwed anyway.
    Where is the dislike button. =(

    Ships had the same number of cannon on either broadside so that they could turn to either direction as the wind/current dictated and still fire. Attempting to move 4 ton cast iron canon from one side of a deck to another while under attack in heavy seas is laughable. Further, only having all cannon mounted on one side of a ship would unbalance it to the point of capsizing.

    TLG just didn't want to pay extra for more cannon.
  • BlueMoonUSABlueMoonUSA Member Posts: 116
    SSD back in stock at [email protected] Ship date of Oct 6th. New batch??
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^For a ship date that far out, I guess it's time to stick a fork in the SDD. I never purchased one and have no regrets. I could purchase two UCS Tumblers for that price...
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    Looks sold out again on [email protected] US
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Farmer_John said:

    ^For a ship date that far out, I guess it's time to stick a fork in the SDD. I never purchased one and have no regrets. I could purchase two UCS Tumblers for that price...

    It will be back on [email protected] USA to order before the year is out but I won't be purchasing anymore. At the high price point they are hard to move and they will be above the limit for signature confirmation. With so much nice gear retiring this year my advice is grab a few but save your powder for the real movers and shakers.

  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    Interesting to see Grand Emporium currently sitting atop the US best seller list on [email protected]
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    ^ That pretty much always happens as something EOLs since everyone is buying them up for resale in a short time. Bumps it to the top.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited August 2014
    It just came on my radar screen that the Barrel Escape #79004 is going away at [email protected] I need to pay better attention I guess.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,112
    edited August 2014
    Also see that TB is now showing the 'Out of Stock, expected ship date is...' status like GE. Guessing speculators are going after TB as well now.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,657
    And predictions on exosuit, now it is on backorder ... ? :-)
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,011
    edited August 2014
    I don't think it'll rise as fast as #21104.(Mars Rover). Quantity is unknown, but it is presumed it is at least as many as Rover, but may well be significantly more. Rover has appeal well beyond the fact that it is Lego, a model of a real piece of space exploration history should give long term popularity and desirability.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,112
    CCC said:

    And predictions on exosuit, now it is on backorder ... ? :-)

    Id like to hope that it lasts for a year, not 30 days. I'm guessing many are also buying them up as army builders for the green space figures
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    [email protected] europe has listed nine friend sets at once with status "Call to check availability...". Among them Olivia's House and the Heartlake High.
    Additional the Haunted House cannot be ordered anymore as the add-to-basket-button is disabled.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    How many Exo Suits could you order when they first went on sale?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    2 per order early on until mid-morning when it switched to 1.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I actually forgot that it is August 1st today :) I think everyone figured it was a limited release and bought all they could, but since Target and TRU had/has them for sale, I think they will be available again soon.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,657
    5 in the UK.
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 436
    #7965 is now "Call to check availability" in the UK
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    jasonord69a said:

    #7965 is now "Call to check availability" in the UK

    I think it is a fine set and should do ok in the Aftermarket. I think that one needs to time when they sell perfectly, before a new one is released.

  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 1,004
    That's surprising, as it's listed in the Argos Autumn/Winter catalogue which was released last weekend. Perhaps they've managed to secure a decent amount of them?
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 436
    Lobot said:

    That's surprising, as it's listed in the Argos Autumn/Winter catalogue which was released last weekend. Perhaps they've managed to secure a decent amount of them?

    Or it could just be a mistake! A few new releases are also showing as call to check.


  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Anyone have any idea whether the Batwing polybag #30301 will be available in the USA? If not, it might be prudent to grab one now while you can...
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