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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Just purchased my third GE with £20 VIP credit, and the two free gifts.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,118
    edited July 2014

    Just purchased my third GE with £20 VIP credit, and the two free gifts.

    Nice. Kinda wish i could have gotten one or two more before they were gone, but oh well.
    There are other sets due to EOL to grab before they are gone.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but GE didn't have a "Retiring Soon or Call to Check" label for U.S. did it?
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    ^I don't think the Fire Brigade did.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    You would think a "retiring soon" label would be a better marketing tool used for modulars, than say, tiny Chima or Friends sets.
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    ^Neither did SSD.

    In the brief time that The "Retiring Soon" label has been in existence, it has rarely (if ever) been used in any useful manner and often along side contradictory labels, e.g. Croc Swamp Hideout #70014 "New" and "Retiring Soon".
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    ^I love that. "Brand New...but we're bailing on Chima and dumping the line so you better buy this soon".
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    Now that would have been an appropriate label for the Mars Rover.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,031
    edited July 2014
    mathew said:

    Genuine question, if you don't know what the point of the forum is why are you still here?

    The 27% talk (for those of us out of the loop) is annoying. It has caused me to pull the plug on this forum and go elsewhere. It has been a good ride.
    Milne44
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440


    There are other sets due to EOL to grab before they are gone.

    Which other sets will EOL soon?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,667
    prevere said:

    Now that would have been an appropriate label for the Mars Rover.

    It didn't need a label to help it sell. That is what these labels are for, to get sales moving. Not as a public service announcement that a set is ready to EOL.
    juggles7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    edited July 2014
    JamesJT said:


    There are other sets due to EOL to grab before they are gone.

    Which other sets will EOL soon?
    Anything that is still active and was newly released in...
    2011 - should retire very soon (there are very few of this stuff remaining)
    2012 - should retire by year's end
    2013 - should retire by early-mid 2015
    *This is just my opinion from following the market the past few years and certainly doesn't include modulars, or the dreaded Death Star. Any questioning or badgering of my statement is welcome. That's kinda what this forum is for.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,118
    edited July 2014
    prevere said:

    JamesJT said:


    There are other sets due to EOL to grab before they are gone.

    Which other sets will EOL soon?
    Anything that is still active and was newly released in...
    2011 - should retire very soon (there are very few of this stuff remaining)
    2012 - should retire by year's end
    2013 - should retire by early-mid 2015
    *This is just my opinion from following the market the past few years and certainly doesn't include modulars, or the dreaded Death Star. Any questioning or badgering of my statement is welcome. That's kinda what this forum is for.
    That sounds like the formula now.
    What I believe is likely to EOL between now at end of year::
    #10220 VW Bus
    #10228 Haunted house
    #10188 Death Star
    #10235 winter Village Market
    #10214 Tower Bridge
    Sopwith Camel (do not remember the set number)
    #9398 TECHNIC Crawler
    #10223 Kingdoms Joust
    #79007 Battle at black Gate
    #79008 Pirate Ship Ambush
    Rest of LoTR, except maybe the Tower

    Those are off the top of my head.
    Some City stuff seems to be going, if not gone. Both old trains (#7938 and #7939)
    Apparently the Cement mixer and Coast guard plane.

    My feeling is that 1st run LEGO Movie sets may start disappearing as well by end of year.
    Possibly, 10937 Arkham Asylum is my wild card here. I believe it has been out for 2 years and LEGO may not have stock for a third year.
    But again all of this is just my feelings on what is going away.

    Of course, with the growing amount of LEGO speculators, and lack of sales meaning more are sitting around (which may cause stores to not order more of them if they cannot discount) you may not see many of these sets last through end of year (unless TRU has them and at their usual marked up price of course). This I believe is why GE is gone all of the sudden. I would say this for SSD, but IMO it was not a great set to begin with and that is why it is gone.
    prevere
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,118
    edited July 2014
    For those of you looking for #7939 Cargo train sets in US, LEGO.com now has them listed as 'out of stock, expected ship date 14 July 2014'. So it looks like they found some extra stock.

    They appear to also be gone everywhere else.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    ^Thanks for the input. I appreciate your willingness to share and discuss openly. Forgot about the Movie Sets. I'm kinda interested in doing complete runs of those, but the other part of me thinks outta sight outta mind will prevail here.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,912
    ^on the other hand, a lot of the sets in the Lego Movie run like the Ice Cream Truck and Plumber Van are nice fits for City builders and aren't likely to be done again anytime soon if ever. Could turn out to be some surprise hits in that mix.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    #10226 For the sopwith camel
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,118

    ^on the other hand, a lot of the sets in the Lego Movie run like the Ice Cream Truck and Plumber Van are nice fits for City builders and aren't likely to be done again anytime soon if ever. Could turn out to be some surprise hits in that mix.

    Yeah, they could be interesting because LEGO advertised the 'action' set instead of the 'normal' set for those boxes. I have been looking at getting plumber vans as I have bought a fair share of the ice cream trucks. Also, the figures are great in these sets for both town folk and occupational people (like the ice cream truck vendors)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited July 2014

    I would say this for SSD, but IMO it was not a great set to begin with and that is why it is gone.

    What you just said doesn't make a lot of sense. If it was not a great set then it would be languishing on store shelves. Instead it has shot up to $675 even though it has not even been announced as retired. Yes, some of it is speculators buying before the price rises too much, but it would be foolish to think that just because you don't like a set means that it won't perform well in the aftermarket. IMO, the SSD is the last of big sets that we will see for awhile.

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440

    prevere said:



    What I believe is likely to EOL between now at end of year::
    #10220 VW Bus
    #10228 Haunted house
    #10188 Death Star
    #10235 winter Village Market
    #10214 Tower Bridge
    Sopwith Camel (do not remember the set number)
    #9398 TECHNIC Crawler
    #10223 Kingdoms Joust
    #79007 Battle at black Gate
    #79008 Pirate Ship Ambush
    Rest of LoTR, except maybe the Tower

    I like the formula but I think #10228 & #10226 will stay for another year.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited July 2014
    samiam391 said:

    Constructive criticism is great, but the criticism you are always typing is anything but constructive.

    Sorry you feel that way. I hope you are having a good day. May the Lego Gods be forever indebted to your presence on this forum.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,118
    edited July 2014
    mathew said:

    I would say this for SSD, but IMO it was not a great set to begin with and that is why it is gone.

    What you just said doesn't make a lot of sense. If it was not a great set then it would be languishing on store shelves. Instead it has shot up to $675 even though it has not even been announced as retired. Yes, some of it is speculators buying before the price rises too much, but it would be foolish to think that just because you don't like a set means that it won't perform well in the aftermarket. IMO, the SSD is the last of big sets that we will see for awhile.

    First, where did I ever say it was not going to perform well in the aftermarket?
    It helps your argument if you are not putting words into other peoples' mouths.

    Also, I do not think I was the only one thinking this set is a bit of a dog.
    It is big, expensive, cumbersome, and not to scale (for obvious reasons) but yet came with figures anyway (my guess is to get those collecting the figures to also want that set).

    Now, will it go up? Probably, but that is aftermarket, not production for LEGO. How many people, besides speculators, were buying these up at retail? Not as many as I think some think. In terms of practicality, it is a horrible set, and kids are likely not going to be playing with it. It is a big piece of 3D art. I guess if you have the disposable income to have one AND disposable space to display it, it is great. However, I think there are fewer of those people than you think.

    I am only speculating here, but I would say for every one person buying a SSD at retail, I would guess there were 3-4 people (if not more) buying a mod at retail.
    So yes, retail wise, I think it was a dog and I am guessing I was not the only one.
    Also paradoxically this will help it go up once it is EOL. With fewer out there, with speculators hording them, I'm sure they will go up. But I just think they are not going to sell those as fast as say a load of fire brigades or say... the Death Star if it also goes this year
    Again just my opinion, take it or leave it.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited July 2014


    It is big, expensive, cumbersome, and not to scale (for obvious reasons) but yet came with figures anyway (my guess is to get those collecting the figures to also want that set).

    I personally like the minifigs. It adds value to the set. Too bad Boba Fett wasn't included. But he's easy to acquire now thanks to the Desert Skiff. I also like that it's big. Big is good right? If you have the space to display of course. I wish it would have been priced closer to $300 to begin with, but it was on sale quite a bit before the exclusive ban. If I had to do over again I would have bought it at $290-$320 which was possible a couple years back.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^At this point, I would rather have a stack of FB's and GE's than an equivalent stack (in terms of money invested) of SSD's.

    I remember back in 1984 I asked my dad to buy me the G.I. Joe U.S.S. FLAGG. His response was "I'm not pay over $100 for a toy...Besides, where would we put it?". I feel the same way with the SSD.
    CoraHarrison
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited July 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    I remember back in 1984 I asked my dad to buy me the G.I. Joe U.S.S. FLAGG. His response was "I'm not pay over $100 for a toy...Besides, where would we put it?". I feel the same way with the SSD.

    You've become your dad. How does that make you feel?
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144
    I am totally lost here. What are we speaking about? Is the GE available anywhere? That's what I want!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,118
    edited July 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^If I have become my dad; then makes me proud because he defended our country for 23 years, was a successful business owner and a hard worker. He also is the best grandfather any parent would want for their children.

    I wasn't really talking so much about me anyway. I was just thinking what probably most parents are thinking today; especially because of the economic situation in the US.

    All I know is part of me still wants that USS FLAGG, my friend had one when we were kids and I ran across one in an antique mart, but did not buy it.. Kinda wish I did
    Pitfall69
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,376
    mathew said:

    samiam391 said:


    Constructive criticism is great, but the criticism you are always typing is anything but constructive.

    Sorry you feel that way. I hope you are having a good day. May the Lego Gods be forever indebted to your presence on this forum.
    @mathew- i was merely making an observation upon your very own comments. You constantly bash the forums, your comment yesterday was an example of that, so I don't thinks it is wrong for me to question your motives in staying here. Sometimes I even think your sole purpose in being here is to cause unrest and to gode people into confrontation (apparently it works on me!). Otherwise what in the world is the point in your rude comment about the forums yesterday, your snarky response to me today, and your blatant little jab at pitfall above?

    Perhaps saying all this is over-stepping my bounds. I don't see the harm though in challenging you to at least be more balanced with the attitude of your comments. I've tolerated your comments since I've joined the forums, but like I said before it has just gotten to the point of annoyance. You can choose to ignore my words, that's completely fine, but I hope you don't.

    And I sure hope the lego gods owe me, perhaps then... Finally... I can get 27% off LEGO ;o)
    TheCableGuy
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^We are better off my friend. Room is always at a premium in most houses. That doesn't mean that I still don't want one. My cousin had one and it was loads of fun.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144
    Kum bay ya, my Love, kum bay ya;
    Kum bay ya, my Lord, kum bay ya;
    Kum bay ya, my Lord, kum bay ya,
    O Lord, kum bay ya.
    SuperTrampMojoest
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    My friend had the FLAGG as well. Hands down the coolest toy on the block until it was dethroned by the NES.
    Pitfall69madforLEGOdougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    samiam391 said:

    mathew said:

    samiam391 said:


    Constructive criticism is great, but the criticism you are always typing is anything but constructive.

    Sorry you feel that way. I hope you are having a good day. May the Lego Gods be forever indebted to your presence on this forum.
    @mathew- i was merely making an observation upon your very own comments. You constantly bash the forums, your comment yesterday was an example of that, so I don't thinks it is wrong for me to question your motives in staying here. Sometimes I even think your sole purpose in being here is to cause unrest and to gode people into confrontation (apparently it works on me!). Otherwise what in the world is the point in your rude comment about the forums yesterday, your snarky response to me today, and your blatant little jab at pitfall above?

    Perhaps saying all this is over-stepping my bounds. I don't see the harm though in challenging you to at least be more balanced with the attitude of your comments. I've tolerated your comments since I've joined the forums, but like I said before it has just gotten to the point of annoyance. You can choose to ignore my words, that's completely fine, but I hope you don't.

    And I sure hope the lego gods owe me, perhaps then... Finally... I can get 27% off LEGO ;o)
    "...and boom goes the dynamite!"

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    CircleK said:

    My friend had the FLAGG as well. Hands down the coolest toy on the block until it was dethroned by the NES.

    US Flagg, 7 feet of plastic, and you include 1 figure? C'mon on!
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,118
    edited July 2014
    prevere said:

    CircleK said:

    My friend had the FLAGG as well. Hands down the coolest toy on the block until it was dethroned by the NES.

    US Flagg, 7 feet of plastic, and you include 1 figure? C'mon on!
    What? One guy cannot manage an entire aircraft carrier?
    Probably was done due to military budget restraints.

    Back on topic...
    Is the Tower of Orthanc going to bow out by end of this year?
  • dragwitdragwit Member Posts: 26

    I am totally lost here. What are we speaking about? Is the GE available anywhere? That's what I want!

    I picked one up on Sunday at the Lego Store in Utah. They had a few left then, and unfortunately, I wasn't paying attention last night at the Monthly Mini Build to see if they had any left.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,667
    edited July 2014

    Back on topic...
    Is the Tower of Orthanc going to bow out by end of this year?

    I doubt it. I can see that one doing two years at least (it was a July release), and only just had it's first birthday. Especially if we are going to get any more LOTR sets once The Hobbit stuff is done and out of the way, it makes sense that they keep it going.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,421
    ^I agree on that, although I wouldn't be surprised to see it disappear when the rest of the Hobbit stuff ends, but I think a set that size in that theme would likely linger a little longer than the rest of the theme.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    On LTOR/Hobbit, is what we are seeing now on the shelves, the last of it?
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,421
    I believe theres one more wave of Hobbit sets but no more LOTR - as much as I'd love to see more
    Farmer_John
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,667
    We know about the one more wave of Hobbit for sure, but I hope there will be another wave of LOTR but only after the last wave of the Hobbit is done, seeing as we haven't heard about it yet.
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,525
    edited July 2014

    Went into Lego Leeds about two weeks ago, noticed none on the shelf spoke to one of the staff who said that's it... Grab it online while you can but I know we have all heard that one before...

    The last 3 were purchased by me and a couple of others in the first few min of opening time on the Friday morning of the 1st birthday.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242



    Went into Lego Leeds about two weeks ago, noticed none on the shelf spoke to one of the staff who said that's it... Grab it online while you can but I know we have all heard that one before...

    The last 3 were purchased by me and a couple of others in the first few min of opening time on the Friday morning of the 1st birthday.
    Went in yesterday to claim my spaceman and chima free gifts with a £25 spend and noticed they've not appeared back on the shelves, ordered online instead :)

  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Also no GE at Manchester Discovery Centre when I went to the AFOL evening about two weeks ago now... I am going to try and get to the Manchester Store tomorrow so will be assessing the situation there too :)
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    CCC said:

    We know about the one more wave of Hobbit for sure, but I hope there will be another wave of LOTR but only after the last wave of the Hobbit is done, seeing as we haven't heard about it yet.

    you are dreaming man....

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,667
    dougts said:

    CCC said:

    We know about the one more wave of Hobbit for sure, but I hope there will be another wave of LOTR but only after the last wave of the Hobbit is done, seeing as we haven't heard about it yet.

    you are dreaming man....

    Yeah. At least we'll know soon. I don't mind mocing Gondor soldiers, I just don't want to go to the expense only to find out they are bringing them out officially.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I don't see the Tower of Orthanc going anywhere unless sales are abysmal. You would think they would continue it at least until the new Hobbit movie is out and ran its course.

    I don't know anything about the history of Orthanc, but I assume it was built ages ago and might make an appearance in the new Hobbit movie as a setting for LOTR's. They do this with prequels a lot. I watched Underworld: Rise of the Lycans the other day and at the end they pictured Selene on top of a building just like the beginning of the first Underworld.
    MathBuilder
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    ^The +1 is just for alluding to Kate Beckinsale.
    Pitfall69canon03
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Kate Beckinsale is hoooottttttttttt :p
    MathBuilder
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    ^ I think every Underworld movie shows at least one clip of the scene with her crouched in the tower. Not that I am complaining :)
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