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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited June 2014
    nkx1 said:

    I'm curious why the 27% thing is such a secret. Unless it's illegal or unethical, why not share the knowledge? Otherwise, why brag about doing something illegal/unethical?

    @doriansdad‌ was pretty clear a couple pages back on why.

  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    This percentage conversation is boring, who cares, lets just keep the topic on topic :)
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,379
    stevemack said:

    This percentage conversation is boring, who cares, lets just keep the topic on topic :)

    Good luck with that.

    Pitfall69LegoFanTexasUKtsumiJP3804cloaked7GothamConstructionCo
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144
    I wonder how many people go to the [email protected] site frequently each day in the hopes that this "last shipment" of GE's shows up.

    I mean, is this possible? Is the consensus that a ship, a Maersk ship I bet, is on it's way to the US with One. Last. Shipment?

    I guess we just have to keep checking [email protected] to find out...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Unless it gets hijacked by pirates ;)
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    Local Lego store said the VW Van is done.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Not that I put a lot of stock in what local Lego stores say, I have a hunch this is correct. Especially with the new mini cooper coming out. The VW is a great set and will do well post-EOL.
    FollowsCloselylegofanfromleeds
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    400 pages!

    "I drink to that!"
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I have been around for 335 pages.

    One of my first posts:

    "...I noticed alot of talk about the modular buildings especially the Fire Brigade. Well...at this moment it is still in stock and it won't be fully "retired" until it is completley sold out."

    Brilliant Pitfall...Brilliant. I'm such a dumbass :(
    minicoopers11LegoFanTexasStormKittyFollowsCloselysidersddBumblepantsVortex
  • iluvmyelementiluvmyelement Member Posts: 52

    ^Not that I put a lot of stock in what local Lego stores say, I have a hunch this is correct. Especially with the new mini cooper coming out. The VW is a great set and will do well post-EOL.

    Shortly after this post.....S&H now says "Out of stock, expected ship date 2 Jul 2014". I'm guessing the shipment expected in by July 2nd could be the last of this one. And GE sold out faster than anyone could imagine (even Lego reps said they had enough stock through the summer before all the panic buying set in)
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited June 2014

    ^Not that I put a lot of stock in what local Lego stores say, I have a hunch this is correct. Especially with the new mini cooper coming out. The VW is a great set and will do well post-EOL.

    Shortly after this post.....S&H now says "Out of stock, expected ship date 2 Jul 2014". I'm guessing the shipment expected in by July 2nd could be the last of this one. And GE sold out faster than anyone could imagine (even Lego reps said they had enough stock through the summer before all the panic buying set in)
    i visited two lego stores in my area.
    in one of the store #10211 GE was limited to 1 set per house-hold.
    in the other store #10211 GE there was no limit.

    sales clerk of both stores mentioned that they have more than enough in the back. if i have to put a number in the back ( based on my past experience it would be about 7 to 10 ) also they mentioned that they were getting more Monday.

    if i am to believe the other sites and the seal of the sets i bought which is 18R4. i think we will see GE coming back in stock @ S&H before it vanishes.

    with regard to #10220 , its available in most of the other retailers so i don't think its going to go away this fast. also based on the seal it has been produced as late as may of this year.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    I have been around for 335 pages.

    One of my first posts:

    "...I noticed alot of talk about the modular buildings especially the Fire Brigade. Well...at this moment it is still in stock and it won't be fully "retired" until it is completley sold out."

    Brilliant Pitfall...Brilliant. I'm such a dumbass :(

    :) You and me both! :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    I have been around for 335 pages.

    One of my first posts:

    "...I noticed alot of talk about the modular buildings especially the Fire Brigade. Well...at this moment it is still in stock and it won't be fully "retired" until it is completley sold out."

    Brilliant Pitfall...Brilliant. I'm such a dumbass :(

    This thread was started back when TLG used to EOL sets. I'm not sure they do that anymore.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    edited June 2014
    How do you read those seals? I didn't know they showed production dates?
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    edited June 2014
    My understanding is that it tells you the week and year of production, so reading 06S4 off a recent purchase means produced the 6th week of 2014, so somewhere at start of Feb. As another example, our old friend the FB with 39R1 is 39th week of 2011 (hence the missing parts being reported at the start of October).

    I don't know what the letter represents, my thought was the region / factory it's from, but have never had this confirmed (S typically being Europe and R the US, but I may well be missing something here).
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...a lot of items have date codes out there similar to what TLG uses. You can determine the age of things such as candy and even fluorescent lamps. I'm sure that TLG uses it to help with quality control. Very useful at times. I'm guessing the letter may indicate a specific plant of origin...
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    I just got GE from [email protected] with may & june production dates
    pharmjod
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    U.S. europe asia?
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    US. Sorry forgot to mention. Ordered last week
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    A GE from [email protected] UK arrived this morning with 18S4 on the seals.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    JamesJT said:

    A GE from [email protected] UK arrived this morning with 18S4 on the seals.

    What does that mean, I am really trying to hold out until July and get a free mini mini cooper as the free gift :)

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited June 2014
    ^ By most accounts GE is done. At least here in the United States. You may be able to find them at a local Lego store or Discovery center. But it's sold out everywhere else. In the past this forum was a good place to come to stay up to date with retiring sets. Not anymore.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,150
    edited June 2014
    mathew said:

    ^ By most accounts GE is done. At least here in the United States. You may be able to find them at a local Lego store or Discovery center. But it's sold out everywhere else. In the past this forum was a good place to come to stay up to date with retiring sets. Not anymore.

    I think there has been discussions since it was 'sold out' that it was gone. Yes it also caught everyone off guard as I think many expected it to last until the fall (like in previous years with other EOL sets). So LEGO screwed up what people logically thought. It is not the first time that has occurred and most certainly not the last.

    Also, if people are expecting everyone here to have an accurate knowledge of what is staying and what is going month by month when most store employees are in the dark, then I think they overestimate the knowledge of folks on here.
    Yes, there are those that appear to have insider knowledge looking at wholesaler, or other, catalogs that report what sets are not available for repurchase, but even that I believe is not month specific. And even still I think we have managed to tick off those that did know. But that is what it is.

    People have been noting what sets are likely to go (27% and trailer talk aside) in the past few pages.
    Expect Haunted house, Death Star, Winter Village Market, VW Bus, and Tower Bridge to go. Guess the TECHNIC Crawler is gone as well
    When could they go? Anyone's guess. They could be gone tomorrow, Around end of November or in December.
    But with the more and more speculators that sites like brickpicker are creating my guess is most sets will be gone sooner than later.
    pharmjodMilne44minicoopers11
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    FWIW, with no discounts on exclusives, I can't imagine why anyone would take a chance on an old set anymore. The modest discount afforded by a free poly or double VIP is not worth it. Sure, it might stick around for a few more months or heck another year. But there's not enough gain to warrant the risk.
    pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited June 2014

    FWIW, with no discounts on exclusives, I can't imagine why anyone would take a chance on an old set anymore. The modest discount afforded by a free poly or double VIP is not worth it. Sure, it might stick around for a few more months or heck another year. But there's not enough gain to warrant the risk.

    I'm thinking just the opposite. The lack of sales on exclusives may push the price higher after EOL. Yes, there are those who are savvy enough to get discounts on Exclusives; those people will just make more money than those who paid full RRP on their sets.

    As far as being "worth the gain"; it all depends on how much your time is worth. If your only income is selling Lego then it is worth it. If you don't have a job then any money gained is better than no money at all.
    madforLEGOdougts
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977

    FWIW, with no discounts on exclusives, I can't imagine why anyone would take a chance on an old set anymore. The modest discount afforded by a free poly or double VIP is not worth it. Sure, it might stick around for a few more months or heck another year. But there's not enough gain to warrant the risk.

    Exactly. I have been trying to hold out for VIP, but doing the calculation this week of the discount on a set between $100 to $200 versus the risk of a an additional $5-$10 off...it simply is not worth it. I actually may place my order today.

    As for this forum not being a good source of info on retiring sets.... I also think it was very common knowledge that GE was very much at risk and probably retiring, although fall was not an uncommon thought.



  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,759
    Pitfall69 said:

    FWIW, with no discounts on exclusives, I can't imagine why anyone would take a chance on an old set anymore. The modest discount afforded by a free poly or double VIP is not worth it. Sure, it might stick around for a few more months or heck another year. But there's not enough gain to warrant the risk.

    I'm thinking just the opposite. The lack of sales on exclusives may push the price higher after EOL. Yes, there are those who are savvy enough to get discounts on Exclusives; those people will just make more money than those who paid full RRP on their sets.

    As far as being "worth the gain"; it all depends on how much your time is worth. If your only income is selling Lego then it is worth it. If you don't have a job then any money gained is better than no money at all.
    I think he was arguing the same point as you. It is not worth the risk waiting near EOL time if you want the set, just for the benefit of a relatively cheap promo item or double VIP.
    Pitfall69pharmjod
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    The SSD is the hot topic over on Brickpicker. Barely a word about it here. I know a lot of people don't like it personally (for whatever reasons). But it's already picking up steam in the aftermarket.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,150
    edited June 2014
    Pretty sure SSD has been a topic on this site (and this thread) for some time. Maybe I'm just missing something.
    I think the thunder was gone when it showed as 'sold out' during that sale.

    Brickpicker seems to be filled with a bunch of speculators and unabashed resellers. To be frank, I felt dirty being there with the perceived attitude of the almighty dollar. If that is how that site is, Id rather be here, but that is just my feeling.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    CCC said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    FWIW, with no discounts on exclusives, I can't imagine why anyone would take a chance on an old set anymore. The modest discount afforded by a free poly or double VIP is not worth it. Sure, it might stick around for a few more months or heck another year. But there's not enough gain to warrant the risk.

    I'm thinking just the opposite. The lack of sales on exclusives may push the price higher after EOL. Yes, there are those who are savvy enough to get discounts on Exclusives; those people will just make more money than those who paid full RRP on their sets.

    As far as being "worth the gain"; it all depends on how much your time is worth. If your only income is selling Lego then it is worth it. If you don't have a job then any money gained is better than no money at all.
    I think he was arguing the same point as you. It is not worth the risk waiting near EOL time if you want the set, just for the benefit of a relatively cheap promo item or double VIP.
    I guess I misunderstood. Yeah, I can get on board with that.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited June 2014

    Pretty sure SSD has been a topic on this site (and this thread) for some time. Maybe I'm just missing something.
    I think the thunder was gone when it showed as 'sold out' during that sale.

    Brickpicker seems to be filled with a bunch of speculators and unabashed resellers. To be frank, I felt dirty being there with the perceived attitude of the almighty dollar. If that is how that site is, Id rather be here, but that is just my feeling.

    True to an extent. Brickpicker is mostly aimed at investors but there are also those who collect. My point is that if you are wanting to stay on top of what's retiring and deals then it's the place to be. Brickset, not so much anymore. Heck, we're not even supposed to discuss MOCs or other collectables. I'm not sure what the point of this forum really is aside from being affiliated with a very good database.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    mathew said:

    The SSD is the hot topic over on Brickpicker. Barely a word about it here. I know a lot of people don't like it personally (for whatever reasons). But it's already picking up steam in the aftermarket.

    It is not that I don't like the SSD; it is just that it is so huge and expensive. While some people have the room to store many copies, most do not. There comes a point where a set hits a certain price point and it takes a percentage of people who can't afford the set out of the market.
    pharmjod
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited June 2014
    ^ The same could be said for the UCS Falcon. Will the SSD hit $3K? Maybe in ten years. But if it doubles within two years which is a very distinct possibility then I don't see why so much hate on this forum has been laid upon it.
    Milne44
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030
    mathew said:

    Pretty sure SSD has been a topic on this site (and this thread) for some time. Maybe I'm just missing something.
    I think the thunder was gone when it showed as 'sold out' during that sale.

    Brickpicker seems to be filled with a bunch of speculators and unabashed resellers. To be frank, I felt dirty being there with the perceived attitude of the almighty dollar. If that is how that site is, Id rather be here, but that is just my feeling.

    True to an extent. Brickpicker is mostly aimed at investors but there are also those who collect. My point is that if you are wanting to stay on top of what's retiring and deals then it's the place to be. Brickset, not so much anymore. Heck, we're not even supposed to discuss MOCs or other collectables. I'm not sure what the point of this forum really is aside from being affiliated with a very good database.
    Try this thread and the the one linked to it tomorrow, I think they prove pretty well that this forum is alive and kicking.

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/15370/2014-brickset-fairy-bricks-raffle-prize-donations/p1
    sidersddPitfall69LostInTranslationMatthewTheCableGuyBrickarmorStormKittyLego_Starwagnerml2
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    mathew said:

    ^ The same could be said for the UCS Falcon. Will the SSD hit $3K? Maybe in ten years. But if it doubles within two years which is a very distinct possibility then I don't see why so much hate on this forum has been laid upon it.

    The SSD will not hit $3,000. You can't compare the UCS MF with the UCS SSD. The Imperial Star Destroyer in my opinion, is more iconic than the SSD and it isn't selling for more than $1,500 almost 7 years since EOL. Also, the UCS MF and ISD were before the huge reseller boom and their prices reflect that.

    cheshirecatSirKevbagsdougts
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,759
    mathew said:

    Pretty sure SSD has been a topic on this site (and this thread) for some time. Maybe I'm just missing something.
    I think the thunder was gone when it showed as 'sold out' during that sale.

    Brickpicker seems to be filled with a bunch of speculators and unabashed resellers. To be frank, I felt dirty being there with the perceived attitude of the almighty dollar. If that is how that site is, Id rather be here, but that is just my feeling.

    True to an extent. Brickpicker is mostly aimed at investors but there are also those who collect. My point is that if you are wanting to stay on top of what's retiring and deals then it's the place to be. Brickset, not so much anymore. Heck, we're not even supposed to discuss MOCs or other collectables. I'm not sure what the point of this forum really is aside from being affiliated with a very good database.
    There is a MOC thread now. I think the point of brickSET is the focus on the sets, as a collectable rather than as a commodity.
    cheshirecatSirKevbagsMatthewLostInTranslationPitfall69StormKittysidersdd
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited July 2014
    mathew said:

    I'm not sure what the point of this forum really is aside from being affiliated with a very good database.

    Genuine question, if you don't know what the point of the forum is why are you still here?
    LostInTranslationPitfall69StormKitty
  • MatthewMatthew Cheshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 3,735
    mathew said:

    Heck, we're not even supposed to discuss MOCs or other collectables.

    As @CCC said, the rule on not discussiong MOCs was lifted with the introduction of the Builder's Guild. If you were referring to discussing other people's MOCs rather than posting photos of your own, that has always been allowed as long as there is perceived to be some discussion value. Although it was posted a while ago that discussions of clone brands were discouraged, I guess that now there is the off-topic category you could discuss other brands if you really wanted, though I'd doubt that many others would be interested. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think BrickPicker or any other sites encourage discussing other collectibles do they?
    CCC said:

    I think the point of brickSET is the focus on the sets, as a collectable rather than as a commodity.

    This hits the nail on the head, while resellers certainly have a place on the Brickset Forum, the main purpose of the site is to cater to collectors, those who do so for personal enjoyment, not to make a quick profit. This may be different on other sites, in which case I can categorically say (without visiting any) that I, and I'm sure many others, prefer it here.
    cheshirecatLostInTranslationSirKevbagsPitfall69StormKittyGothamConstructionCo
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977
    * That threw me for a second.... matthew responding to himself, and arguing the opposite point. ;-)

    LostInTranslationMatthewSirKevbagsPitfall69MathBuilderStormKittyGothamConstructionCoDougout
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I think most of expected GE to go this fall. It's just strange to see 2 modulars fall so quickly in a short window of time. Now if HH goes this year, to me, that would be a huge surprise.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited June 2014
    prevere said:

    I think most of expected GE to go this fall. It's just strange to see 2 modulars fall so quickly in a short window of time. Now if HH goes this year, to me, that would be a huge surprise.

    HH won't surprise me since it was expected to go out with the last of the monsters :D....

    i would be surprised if #10218 Pet shop vanishes this year.
    madforLEGO
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited June 2014
    tamamahm said:

    * That threw me for a second.... matthew responding to himself, and arguing the opposite point. ;-)

    Pay attention to the number of "t"s. Or stick around this thread for a while and you learn which is which by the tone of each post ;)
    StormKittyRainstorm26
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    tamamahm said:

    * That threw me for a second.... matthew responding to himself, and arguing the opposite point. ;-)

    Pay attention to the number of "t"s. Or stick around this thread for a while and you learn which is which by the tone of each post ;)
    Distinguishing forum members by their tone? That just tells me that I'm spending too much time on the forum :)

    StormKittyRainstorm26
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    prevere said:

    I think most of expected GE to go this fall. It's just strange to see 2 modulars fall so quickly in a short window of time. Now if HH goes this year, to me, that would be a huge surprise.

    HH won't surprise me since it was expected to go out with the last of the monsters :D....

    i would be surprised if #10218 Pet shop vanishes this year.
    Nothing surprises me anymore. I think HH will still be around for at least one more wave around Halloween. After that, it is anyone's guess. As far as GE; many of us expected it to go later this year, but not exactly this fast. Pet Shop should be around awhile longer. I wouldn't be shocked if Town Hall goes before Pet Shop.

  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited June 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    tamamahm said:

    * That threw me for a second.... matthew responding to himself, and arguing the opposite point. ;-)

    Pay attention to the number of "t"s. Or stick around this thread for a while and you learn which is which by the tone of each post ;)
    Distinguishing forum members by their tone? That just tells me that I'm spending too much time on the forum :)

    How is that so difficult ? wisecrack tone = 90% chance the post was made by Pitfall69 ;)


    Or should I say there is only 27% chance the wisecrack post was made by someone OTHER THAN Pitfall69 ?
    StormKittycloaked7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited June 2014
    I think PS will go next summer and TH the summer after that. Of course, they could go 1-2 next year. However, I feel strongly that they will go in order of release, so PS will get dropped first.

    Then in 2017, we'll all be complaining the Palace Cinema has been out way too long.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    mathew said:


    I'm not sure what the point of this forum really is aside from being affiliated with a very good database.

    Genuine question, if you don't know what the point of the forum is why are you still here?
    It's a community devoted to Lego. But instead of Brickset maybe it should be re-named Pitfall69's Saloon because that is what it feels like most of the time.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    mathew said:

    ^ By most accounts GE is done. At least here in the United States. You may be able to find them at a local Lego store or Discovery center. But it's sold out everywhere else. In the past this forum was a good place to come to stay up to date with retiring sets. Not anymore.

    The irony of this statement made me laugh out loud!
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144
    We should move to discontinue this thread!
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