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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Ahh, good to know...

    Oh well, I only paid $1.48 for them, so I don't mind, I'll give them to the kids... :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Great stocking stuffers...
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    hula girl is the best of the bunch
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Has anyone else noticed 10195?

    It has been going up and up... This may have been a silent winner among retired sets, just two weeks ago it was $299 on Amazon, now the lowest price among sellers with any feedback is $399, and that is a single seller, above that it hits $450... The lowest FBA seller (to removal all hassles of condition and reputation) is $499 today (it was $299 two weeks ago for FBA sellers)

    For a set that could be purchased for $175 on Brick Friday, that is a heck of a return...

    No way of course to know how many are moving at that price, but sheesh!

    Makes me wonder if Imperial Shuttle will do the same, similar price point, similar lack of interest from the community, it isn't talked about much like 10195 wasn't talked about much... If this coming Brick Friday it is 25% off, that tells me it is worth buying.

    Thoughts?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Side note: Amazon still "reports" over 1,000 Tantive IV sets in stock, and that one is clearly retired...

    Is that one going to be a dead duck like Home One was?

    Speaking of Home One, finally it is over $99 on Amazon, right now it is at $109... Took long enough!

    Finally, would someone explain to me why people are willing to pay $215 for the AT-AT walker (8129) when you can buy the motorized AT-AT (10178) for the same price?

    As a side note, since Star Wars has been extended by 10 years with Lego, who wants to put odds on there being another AT-AT at some point? :)
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^ & ^^ I agree that 10195 was a sleeper, glad I grabbed a few:). I also think 10198 is going to take a while with how widely available it is. Some are still selling for less than retail on ebay.

  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^^ For some of the same reasons why people buy any of the retired stuff on Amazon instead of eBay or Bricklink - they don't know any better. Lowest AT-OT on Bricklink is $268, with several others below or right around $300. I have an 8129 AT-AT listed on Bricklink for $159.99.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    edited February 2012
    @sidersdd - You are correct that sometimes they don't know any better, but there are other reasons as well. For one, you have the Amazon AtoZ Guarantee, in that you never have any risk doing business on Amazon, ever... That is worth something to some customers.

    For another point, given a set like Home One, it is $72.50 on Bricklink right now, but without a listed shipping cost, it may well be closer to $90 including shipping (or more). $110 including free shipping from Amazon is not all that crazy when you consider that point.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ Bricklink buyers call that AtoZ thing "PayPal".
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    I might have a chance to buy several 10195 from local dealer, which would be the highest price currently I should buy it with?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Bricklink buyers call that AtoZ thing "PayPal".
    Yes, but it isn't the same thing... PayPal doesn't always side with the buyer, while Amazon does 99% of the time...

    Plus, PayPal requires the buyer to pay return shipping, Amazon does not. Plus, if the item is under $300 and the seller is not upfront offering to take it back and pay return shipping, often Amazon just refunds the buyer and doesn't require a return at all.

    Now THAT is service. :)
    Amanda1983
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I asked about 10195 a couple months ago before it vanished. I thought it would do well, but I also thought the home one and the tantive would do well. The shuttle may do well also as long as when lego sells out, amazon doesn't still have thousands stocked. Maybe that will go EOL around black friday if its still not selling well. I think someone has mentioned it before, but MISB for that set might be rare; The shuttles I got from amazon for around $180 were totally beat up.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    I love Star Wars, but I really didn't like 10195. I found it a painfully boring build, inpractical to display and store, and just generally not much fun. I ended up trading it. I also thought it should have had about 20 more Clone Troopers with it.

    I am actually surprised it is rising.

    Much more hopeful for the Imperial Shuttle that I just took delivery of from Amazon Italy for £169. Not built yet though!
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^Agreed. It has 6 regular clone trooper, but I need way more for my army and I only got about 4 clone trooper battle packs this year. I am planning on selling the three I have for republic gunships (7676). I think the look of those are much better.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    ^agreed back! (on the 7676), a nicer looking set, not as awkward.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Member Posts: 995
    As a side note, since Star Wars has been extended by 10 years with Lego, who wants to put odds on there being another AT-AT at some point? :)
    I reckon there's a pretty good chance. I dwelled on the motorised AT-AT and missed the boat, but I'm confident that we'll see another version in the future (maybe not motorised, but I don't necessarily need it to be).

    It'd be interesting to compare the value of something like the original Jabba's Palace a year ago and now, with the remake on the way in the summer.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    I would have thought there will be another AT-AT in a couple of years, maybe 2015?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I think there's a good chance that we'll see more than one UC Falcon and other sets like the Death Star may just stay in circulation. Star Wars Legos seem overpriced to me, and considering that the license has been renewed for another ten years I don't think they will be a particularly good long term investment.

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Not surprised at Home One as I think its one of the worst sets ever.

    Have always liked Tantive. Its a sharp looking ship, but with the EOL discounts I think it will take awhile to reach a good price. Never sold well but my gut feeling is it will do well eventually.

    I think the Dropship is a great set but just out of the range of most buyers. Two separate ships and lots of figs. Lots of play and moc possibilities. Not something that's going to be duplicated every couple years.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I would have thought there will be another AT-AT in a couple of years, maybe 2015?
    This past Christmas when I put an order in for the latest AT-AT to be EOL'd, I was concerned that my order would be canceled and I contacted TLG CS to check on the order. The rep on the other end told me not to sweat it either way...that TLG had already released four versions and would very likely be releasing more.

    As for the Home One and Tantative, they always have reminded me of each other for some reason. It's kind of funny that they are acting similar after being EOL'd.

    Personally, I never picked up a 10195 even though I had the opportunity to get it cheap during the BF sale. I decided to use those funds on IFs and ENs, which I think was probably a better idea in the long run.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    I must say I agree on all these comments. I do think the long term value of some of the Star Wars sets (as investments or resale after using them etc), should naturally fall given the re-signing.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Star Wars Legos seem overpriced to me, and considering that the license has been renewed for another ten years I don't think they will be a particularly good long term investment.
    I take the reverse view (there is room enough in the world for both views, is there not?)

    Because there will be 10 more years of Star Wars Lego, then there will be 10 more years of "new" AFOLs coming into the game, some of whom want to get the back catalog. What would concern me more is if they stopped them next year, then the retail shelves stopped having Star Wars Lego of any kind, then they become a long term collectible without any new buyers...

    When the Star Wars license finally ends, I personally would get out at that point.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    interesting way to look at it. I guess it could go either way.

    Your right in one point. I got back in to Lego several years back when I bought the first Star Wars Snow Speeder. So yes, Star Wars pulled me back in actually.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited February 2012
    @LegoFanTexas,

    Just realised that we can test your theory pretty soon with Harry Potter exiting in the summer! Just out of interest since you are a seller, have you stocked up on any of these sets?, or do you think the interest will drop off given the big summer releases for Star Wars and Lord of The Rings dropping in.

    Cheers,
    Rich
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I had no idea Star Wars Lego even existed, up until Dec 2010, when I walked into the Lego store in the mall.

    In fact, I didn't even know Lego stores EXISTED until I walked by it... I was in the mall to buy an iPad for my wife, when I found the Lego store directly across from the Apple store.

    Walked in and about fell down, this was NOT the Lego I remembered from my childhood... First thing that caught my eye was the Yellow Cargo Train, bought that on the spot for my son (he was MAJOR into Thomas at the time) and away it went.

    If you remove current Star Wars Lego sets from retail shelves, then at some point your average person has no idea it even exists, so they aren't going to look for it. Oh sure, many will find it by mistake, but I think having "something" on the shelf draws people in, then they get hooked, then they want the back catalog.

    To be sure, rereleases are probably not the best sets to invest in, the AT-AT is going strong now, but another will come along in a few years I imagine, same with Falcon, X-Wing, TIE Fighter, etc.

    But will we ever have another 10195? 10212? No, those are unique, and special enough that 5 years from now, someone will want them to complete the back collection.

    7676 is going strong now, but that also may get remade, and if it does, I'd expect the current prices to drop a bit. Now is probably the peak of the market for that set. Wish I had 10 of them to sell, but alas I don't... I have one of them (thanks to the member of this forum who hooked me up!) and my son and I are going to open it and build it!!! Ha! :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Ahh, regarding HP...

    I'm stocking up on 10217, but that is it, nothing else... Diagon Alley can be used for Castle, LOTR, and of course HP, I think it is special and thus will hold longer than the others. Hogwarts Castle is nice, and probably the best they have done, but what does it build besides Hogwarts Castle? Besides, the price per part on it isn't as good as Diagon Alley.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    I couldn't agree more on 10217 Diagon Alley. It's an instant classic, and I...., actually I havn't bought it yet. lol
    Planning to get it next month when the double points are on. Just the one copy though, and will build it with my daughter, although given it's going to be a complex build and she is only coming up to 6, I might put it away for a year.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Smart... I suspect it will cost much more than $150 in a year. Or at least I'm hoping...
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    I wonder how the licence extension will affect some of the mid sized Star Wars sets that command good prices, but are not necessarily guaranted to be remade like the bigger classic ships, or at least not for a few years. Take say 7153 Jango Fett's Slave 1, I have been looking at these on ebay and bricklink, and they go for 3-4 times the original price, but if they remade it, surely it would drop significantly?, or would it?
  • Great_small76Great_small76 Member Posts: 23
    I have only 1 Diagon Alley 10217 at the moment - so I do need to stock up on those. I came across Lego online purely by accident. In early 2011 I had bought 20 off 7676 for a crazy price of £42 each -basically I had purchased 4 pallets of random toys from a wholesale clearance and 20 of the 7676's happened to be amoungst the job lot. I have sold all but one now for between £200 - £250 all mint condition. The last one I am holding onto for now as it has a big tear and I am thinking of building it. I used the profits to add to my collection. Probably my worse purchase to date has been a load of HP Freeing Doby's - albeit £6.66 each - they arnt fetching what I thought they would. Next on the list is Diagon Alley and a few more Imperial Shuttles if I can get them for around 186 euros again.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited February 2012
    well, I am not a reseller, but I would have thought that Freeing Doby will do ok once Harry Potter exits in the summer, you're probably just selling, or looking to sell, too soon. The set is a little dull though.
    LegoFanTexas is right though, Diagon Alley is the stand out set by a mile there. Totally unique and not likely to be ever remade. I just hope its still about when I visit the Lego store in Milton Keynes in March. At £132.99, I need the double points offer!!! :-D
  • Great_small76Great_small76 Member Posts: 23
    I will probably keep hold of Freeing Doby for a while and hopefully there will be a good return. Diagon Alley rarely seems to get discounted much either by Lego or Amazon - I think that has put me off hording a few - and maybe others? Looks like the best deal will be when its double VIP as Lego seem to be getting very clever at selling out of sets before the christmas sales start! I still kick myself to this day when Lego had 43 Taj Mahals left in stock just before christmas 2010 prior to selling out - and the chap on the phone said they were being discontinued at any time and advised me to purchase asap - did I buy any? Nope! I wont make the same mistake with Diagon Alley - although I cant see them making the markups that Taj Mahal make.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited February 2012
    I will probably keep hold of Freeing Doby for a while and hopefully there will be a good return. ...................
    Nope! I wont make the same mistake with Diagon Alley - although I cant see them making the markups that Taj Mahal make.
    I also purchased a bunch of Freeing Doby's for $5.40. I am not worried about those at all as I believe everything "HP" will do well by next Christmas after being sold out for a few months. DA will be the cornerstone of the HP theme, and I wouldn't be surprised if it approaches the Taj Mahal at some point. HP is just too big "globally," and I have more confidence in its aftermarket prospects than any other series that I can think of. I am only purchasing HP for resale; not to open and build.

    The verdict is still out on SW with the contract renewal. Yes, buyers will be happy and TLG will be happy; however, I do wonder about the prospects for aftermarket sellers. I guess my gut instinct leads me to believe that it will be on a set-by-set basis (unlike HP).

    JMO
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I have 3 Diagon Alley's, and really should purchase more. A very under-the-radar set, and it seems like it will have a shorter shelf life than many other recently retired sets such as Emerald Night.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Of course if we all talk ourselves into filling our closets with Diagon Alley, then it defeats the point, doesn't it? :)

    Quick, everyone go buy Hogwarts Castle, no one will have them, it'll triple after EOL!!!

    Quick, go buy now! ;)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited February 2012

    Because there will be 10 more years of Star Wars Lego, then there will be 10 more years of "new" AFOLs coming into the game, some of whom want to get the back catalog.
    Exactly. However, if they re-release the most popular sets such as the UC MF then wouldn't that hurt your investment? I was recently shopping for a minifig Darth Maul (for my son) on ebay. I was surprised that I could actually buy the original Sith Infiltrator along with the minifig for under $20 (complete but without box). The Maul minifigs seem to go for over $10 on average. Like you said, there will be future generations of Star Wars AFOLers so if it was discontinued next year then sets would skyrocket in price if there was nothing else to take their place.

  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    edited February 2012
    Quick, everyone go buy Hogwarts Castle, no one will have them, it'll triple after EOL!!!

    Quick, go buy now! ;)
    This will probably end up being true..
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    @mathew - yes, for sets they rerelease it does hurt their value, how much depends on how good the original set was...

    That is why I try and invest in sets that won't get re-released too soon... AT-AT is going to get done again, so I wouldn't save those sets past this Christmas...

    The UCS Falcon? Never happen... Lego has too many other fish to fry than to try that again... From everything I've heard, the first one didn't actually sell very well...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    @pcirone - actually I just got a Hogwarts Castle from UPS today, Amazon sold it to me...

    No, not a new one, one of their "used - like new" sets... Paid $102 for it... It sure looks new to me, there is some very minor shelf-wear on the box, a few nicks and bumps, but nothing major. The seals are good, it looks fresh off the shelf.

    They had two more for sale for $104, also marked as minor damage, I just bought both of them... I won't invest hard in this one, but if they come in similar condition, then that is a heck of a price for that set. To me anyway. :)

    I'll probably end up building one of them, to add to our general Castle theme, strip the HP elements out and make it Castle fodder, just like I'm going to do to Diagon Alley (I have not seen any of the HP movies, or read the books, and honestly know almost nothing about HP, amazing isn't it?)
  • dk1007dk1007 Member Posts: 49
    How do you know that in 2 weeks Lego store will offer double VIP points?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    It is on the March calendar... not to mention that the store employees are telling all the customers about it. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Ok, ok...

    Now THIS is nuts:

    http://www.amazon.com/BrickMaster-Exclusive-Building-20006-Bagged/dp/B001KJKTE2/

    This is a 64 part polybag... ok, Brickmaster, whee! The lowest new seller on Amazon is $135 including shipping...

    You can buy the FULL SIZE Clone Turbo Tank for less:

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-Wars-Clone-Turbo/dp/B003F7V7XE/
    $102.95 shipped as of tonight

    Now, I know some people like complete collections, but that is insane!!!
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    edited February 2012
    Star Wars Legos seem overpriced to me, and considering that the license has been renewed for another ten years I don't think they will be a particularly good long term investment.
    I take the reverse view (there is room enough in the world for both views, is there not?)

    Because there will be 10 more years of Star Wars Lego, then there will be 10 more years of "new" AFOLs coming into the game, some of whom want to get the back catalog. What would concern me more is if they stopped them next year, then the retail shelves stopped having Star Wars Lego of any kind, then they become a long term collectible without any new buyers...

    When the Star Wars license finally ends, I personally would get out at that point.
    One thing to keep in mind here though is that 10 more years of AFOLs getting into Star Wars means 10 more years of additional AFOLs doing exactly what you and I do with buying sets for speculation in the secondary market. Perhaps the market will end up being large enough to absorb all of the additional product that those new resellers will inject into it, but I have been at this for about 6 years now and have seen huge changes in the prices and liquidity of EOL sets as the popularity of Lego has expanded.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Ok, ok... Now THIS is nuts:

    http://www.amazon.com/BrickMaster-Exclusive-Building-20006-Bagged/dp/B001KJKTE2/

    This is a 64 part polybag... ok, Brickmaster, whee! The lowest new seller on Amazon is $135 including shipping...
    I saw that and wondered why it was so high. I figured it came with a 24K C3PO inside. It appears to be made from basic components, and could probably be easily made from spare parts.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    Finally, would someone explain to me why people are willing to pay $215 for the AT-AT walker (8129) when you can buy the motorized AT-AT (10178) for the same price?

    As a side note, since Star Wars has been extended by 10 years with Lego, who wants to put odds on there being another AT-AT at some point? :)
    8129 AT-AT is back in-stock, on-line at TRU. I'd pick up a few more if there was a coupon to stack with it. It's "on-sale" for about 20% *over* MSRP (~$130), but that's still cheaper than the going rate on Amazon/eBay/Bricklink. Get em while you can if you missed out the first time.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    just went to TRU website, it is listed but is Out of Stock for Shipping
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404

    8129 AT-AT is back in-stock, on-line at TRU. I'd pick up a few more if there was a coupon to stack with it. It's "on-sale" for about 20% *over* MSRP (~$130), but that's still cheaper than the going rate on Amazon/eBay/Bricklink. Get em while you can if you missed out the first time.
    They were, maybe, for a minute... gone now... :(
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Still waiting for the UCS AT-AT....with 10 more years I see this as very likely.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^ Yes, I'm still sticking by my prediction that a UCS AT-AT will be the next huge 5000+ piece set...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Still waiting for the UCS AT-AT....with 10 more years I see this as very likely.
    *drools on carpet*
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