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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I must be nuts then, because I just looked at it, they were all in stock and showing full price. shop.lego.com

    hmm, let me restart my computer and try again...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Hmm, I closed my browser and reopened it, and now it shows the discounts.

    Weird... sorry about that, computers, what can I say?
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    Sold Out items at shop@home have previously returned so I wouldn't assume anything just based on that.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    edited November 2011
    Earlier, According to shop.LEGO.com if you check the Hard to find items, all of the items listed as sold out above were showing available.. If you added one to your cart it would appear as the sale price in the 'shopping bag' online.
    I tried to order more Emerald Nights, but it may have just been a glitch in the shop@home system as I got an email with my order number, but I do not see it in the order history, plus I rebooted my PC and now everythnig shows as sold out like it did earlier.
    I guess we will see as now the Emerald Night, Dropship, and some other sets are sold out online, a few went to backorder (like the Tantive IV)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I agree with Yellowcastle...sold out sets sometimes come back (at least for a very short time). Last year, Count Dooku's Solar Sailer went on and off the "sold out" list a couple times. I think it all has to do with errors in Lego's inventory system trying to track sets in their warehouses and B&M stores. Sometimes they have additional sets they need to move, so if you happen to check at the right time you might get lucky.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    The question is, tomorrow will there be any left in the stores. :)

    I'm thinking of getting a few Emerald Nights, that set strikes me as one that should go up in value. The only problem is that Amazon has over a thousand in stock, perhaps tens of thousands, who knows...

    Public Transport is still online at Shop @ Home, and it is sold out at Amazon and has been for awhile, but the sales rank on it tells me that it isn't a great seller.

    I agree with the other comments, Republic Drop ship is half of a great set and it isn't a great seller. It was priced too high for the part count, the AT-OT walker sucks, etc.

    At the discounted price, it is where it should have been from day one.

    Tantive IV? I like that set, it was one of my really early builds back into Lego, so it holds a warm place in my heart. It is not playable however, it falls apart at the slightest touch. Price to part count isn't terrible, and it IS star wars and is a very well known item.

    Imperial Flagship, nice set, but not part of a current theme. Price is good for the part count, but will anyone want it in a year?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    Imperial flagship will be in demand BECAUSE it is not part of one them, meaning you could use it with any Pirate or PoTC theme... it could be a ship chasing Jack Sparrow, or a a ship to reign in Pirates.. not to mention the people that just collect pirate ships...
    Pirates have proven in the past that they can go up in price, and since many people wanted a price discount to get one then there may be people out there who want them.
    The issue is, which all of these sets, is how many resellers got in on these sales (as I do not believe there was a limit) and bought 50 of a set.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    What about 8041 - Race Truck? Any thoughts on that being in demand when it goes out?

    The sales rank on Amazon is terrible, that worries me.

    I suspect Emerald Night and Imperial Flagship are the two to have, but then I think 1,000 other people think that too. Maybe the sets that no one else is thinking of?

    Ahh, who knows...
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I think LOTS of people have stocked up on Emerald Night, but even then, their value will go up post-retirement. For Imperial Flagship, I think fewer have hoarded these due to price and availability. I recently built it - it's an incredible set. LEGO has done ships and pirates for a very very long time. This set is the ultimate build of it. I think it will be long viewed as a classic set, something really special. I didn't expect to keep it when I first bought it, just build it, then sell it. But I liked it so much, my wife even allowed it to be in the living room, that I bought a second set to keep MIB.

    @LegoFanTexas made really good points about the pros and cons of different sets. I just grabbed a Public Transport, a very interesting set. For AT-OT, my local LEGO Store said they still had tons of them in stock. I think you will see these 50% off throughout January.

    I'll likely be picking up another Emerald Night or two in the next two weeks.
    Thanks.
    -Dan
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited November 2011
    If one is just trying to flip one of these sets over the next month, then they will be lucky to break even. However, if one is patient I think both the EN and the IF will be excellent to resell (MIB). Both of these sets are classics and will only go up. The Tantive IV set should also do well since it is a large set from the very first SW movie.

    As for the Technic Race Truck, it will be hit or miss in my opinion. I like technics and my kids are liking them more as they get older. However, ...well...it's a race truck. Don't see too many of those driving around the roads these days. I think it is certainly good for parts if nothing else, but can't imagine a premium on parts. Buy hey...what do I know...the small lego Technic Go-Kart set seemed kind of bland to me, but it's been doing very well on the secondary market after it sold out last year.

    Girl horse sets (Bellville) will likely do well once it sells out because girls gotta have something girly.

    Personally, I like the Public Transport Station too and picked one up. Seems like one can't be serious about the City theme without having one.

    I also bought a large tote bag ($9.99 on sale at Lego) for my wife and daughter for Christmas. It was an impulse buy, but I was surprised at the quality of the bag when it arrived.

    In conclusion, I think the larger sets generally do better (from a $$$ standpoint) down the road. It may be because Lego typically doesn't repeat the themes of larger sets like they do the smaller sets. Or it may be due to the fact that the younger generation's disposable income increases and they spend it on those big sets they couldn't afford a few years earlier. Or it may be that sets like Green Grocier are part of a continuing theme, and people who start collecting these themes later on "have to" get the older sets to go with their newer sets.

    JMO.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    ^--- Agreed, the Public Transport is a nice set, but nicer when it is on sale. I just do not think that set warranted its price unless it was going to include track with it for the tram or baseplates or something, otherwise it is really only like a collection of smaller sets in a big box...
    I want more Emerald nights, but not sure if LEGO store by me will have them. I am debating about going up there later on tonight as I also want more of the Holiday set #1.
  • kylejohnson11kylejohnson11 Member Posts: 508
    I'm going to try and get at least 2 Public Transportations after Christmas. I want to motorize the blue trolley/tram. Someone on Eurobricks made it look really nice by using two sets.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Imperial Flagship is back on sale. They must have found a few more in inventory. FYI.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Imperial Flagship gone again.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Looks like the SW Advent set is now gone.

    Also, Lego has added the Earth Defense HQ, Mill Village Raid, and the SW AT-AT Walker to the sale list. Of those, I would guess that only the AT-AT Walker is going to be permanently sold out. The other two sets are too new to be EOL'ing already.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    You never know, the city limo went out at 6 months.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    Grand Emporium is sold out at S@H. Huh? Again though, I don't think this necessarily means it's gone, gone.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Maybe grand emporium is going out to make room for another modular early next year?

    Probably not, but you never know...

    If it does, I suspect it will go much faster than fire brigade because no one expected it.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited November 2011
    Hope I am able to get the Emporium!!! I purchased it two days ago and it still shows as "In Process." I ordered an Imperial Flagship when it came back as for sale, and Lego sent me an email canceling my order.

    I used all my VIP points to help defray the cost of the Emporium, and now my fingers are officially crossed...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Does anyone know when S@H indicated the Grand Emporium went EOL? Was it today or further back than that?
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ Dunno. It's been out-of-stock at TRU.com for over a month.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited November 2011
    Has anyone ever experienced a status of "In Process" going to "Backordered" going to "Sold Out" on an order. Just trying to give myself a ray of hope for the Emporium.

    FYI - The AT-AT is now officially sold out at S@H. I've got one "Backordered," but that typically means that mine will be canceled since it is officially sold out. The dreaded email from Lego is in the proverbial mail...
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Hope I am able to get the Emporium!!! I purchased it two days ago and it still shows as "In Process." I ordered an Imperial Flagship when it came back as for sale, and Lego sent me an email canceling my order.

    I used all my VIP points to help defray the cost of the Emporium, and now my fingers are officially crossed...
    Only place I can find Grand Emporium at all is Target. All others appear sold out, Walmart, TRU, Amazon, etc. Could always order one there as a safety net, then if it comes back just return the Target purchase, think they give you 90 days.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Thanks Andy...
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    I would not worry about Grand Emporium. It will probably be back in stock. LEGO has historically been selling three modular a at a time. The next modular, Town Hall, comes out in spring to replace Fire Brigade.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Thanks Ma...I think of those offered, the Emporium is the nicest. I would be very surprised if it was gone before the Fire Brigade too.
  • kylejohnson11kylejohnson11 Member Posts: 508
    @Ma1234 for the first part of 2011 LEGO only had two modulars available, Grand Emporium and Fire Brigade.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Fire Brigade came out a year before Grand Emporium, if Lego follows any sense of logic, Fire Brigade should go out now and Grand Emporium in a year.

    Unless Lego is messing with us. :) Or perhaps do we know if Town Hall is a corner set? If it is, then that makes sense, if not, then it doesn't.
  • bluemoosebluemoose Member Posts: 1,716
    ^ the final decision on whether to keep a set in production will be based on how well it's selling. *If* the Emporium wasn't selling very well they could easily decide to retire it 'early' and use the freed up brick production capacity to manufacture more of a set that is selling well. I don't think that is the case here, but there are no hard-and-fast rules in set production.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    To Bluemoose's point, they've been selling the Death Star for sometime now, and it HAS to be a profitable set for Lego. I think it is popular because of its playability.

    If one looks at these large buildings from a "playability" perspective, then the Fire Brigade might be more popular because it is...well...a fire station set (not a shopping center like the Emporium). I just like the look of the Emporium set. I've been considering it for awhile, but decided to use my VIP points that I accumulated over the past year to finally get one.

    I guess it's all speculation now, and we will know in the course of the next month or so.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Is it also possible that Lego might want to have a few retired sets that go up in value to hold the collector community interest? The average Joe will just buy something else in the store, but you have to think that the rise of sets like Cafe Corner and UCS Falcon has helped Lego's business among AFOLs and collectors and resellers.

    Perhaps they might end it early, since no one was expecting it, to force the aftermarket price up like Cafe Corner?

    Again, the average Joe walking into a Lego store will see Pet Shop and Town Hall and buy one of them and not care, but we will and many of us will pay higher prices for these sets, plus we're more likely to get off our duff and buy what IS in stock to avoid "missing out".

    Does it benefit Lego to be predictable, or unpredictable?
  • bluemoosebluemoose Member Posts: 1,716
    LEGO have repeatedly said they have no interest in the reseller market, and that it doesn't enter into any of their planning or decision making. I believe them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    @bluemoose - Perhaps, but that is like saying they have no interest in money...

    The reseller market is part of their business, like it or not. Even more so, the collector market is part of their business and it is all affected by the value of retired sets, regardless of how Lego might "want" to feel about it.

    They would be pretty poor business people if they didn't take all aspects of the market into account.

    Just my opinion...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    edited November 2011
    LEGO has had Sets 'sell out' only to come back, I would say this would be a the case for the Grand Emporium..
    There is no reason, even those mentioned above, why the Grand Emporium would sell out before the Fire Brigade.
    1) You cannot tell me that Fire Brigade is more sought after than Grand Emporium (panic buying aside) and that is why the Grand Emporium is discontinued.
    2) As part of earlier LEGO production runs, the earliest set always goes out first in terms of EOL, it was that way with the Cafe Corner, and Green Grocer, so Fire Brigade really should be gone before Grand Emporium..

    I guess anything is possible but I am also thinking in this case it is a miscue by the S@H admins.
    Unless LEGO has just decided that they only want one Modular up and being sold at a time and what to remove the others...
    Has anyone called LEGO customer service to see if this really is gone?

    I'm also guessing panic buying has started for the GE...
    I will say this, if this really is the case then man oh man what a shocker



  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    Hmmm,
    Just checking LEGO site for other things that appear to be leaving.
    It seems the Hoth Wampa Cave is sold out, not sure if this has been mentioned before, but the other interesting one is the Slave 1 being listed as call to check product availability.
    It also appears the LEGO Fire Boat is done as well.
    Kingdoms Prison tower rescue is gone as well
    Outpost attack, Prison carriage rescue and Knight's showdown are also gone...

  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    All those Kingdoms sets selling out to make way for LotR... ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Just snagged an Imperial Flagship at the local Lego store, they had it on hold for someone, it came off this morning, walked in and it was right there on display. Perfect box too! :)

    Last two Republic Dropships were there, they said they were selling 2 or 3 a day, it was not a fast seller, but it did move quickly once it went on sale.

    Emerald Night was gone, but they said they had one more shipment coming in, and that was the last one.

    Even more interesting... They did NOT have the online sales that appeared last night in the store, so the AT-AT was full price. The store manager said no to buying 6 of them at the web site price, but she did agree to do 2 of them for me at the sale price.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Well...I just checked and my Grand Emporium shows as shipped! Woo Hoo!!!!

    I don't care if it is only a temporary sell-out or not as I ordered it purely on interest on the 25th with no idea it would sell out. The combination of the 10% off and my VIP dollars got it for me for $20. Now if only my backordered AT-AT comes through, I will be good. I would've had a better chance on it, but didn't see the post about it being on sale until it was probably too late. Time will tell...

  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas we need a daily ticker of your purchases! Cool find on the Flagship, and interesting to hear that some stores will still be getting more Emerald Night shipments. Thanks!
    -Dan
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I need to find out how @LegoFanTexas's wife is letting him get away with all of his purchases! I bought a few of the big sets over the past weeks, but would be hard pressed to push my luck. It could get ugly on the home-front as they say...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Sheesh, I'll stop posting then... :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited November 2011
    @LegoFanTexas - Don't do that!!! Some of us have to live vicariously through the lives of others. The grass is always greener... ;-)

    We don't have a Lego store where I live, but I still like to know what is going on with those fortunate enough to have one.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas - I agree with @Farmer_John - keep posting your finds! Heading out to Target later to see what I can turn up...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited November 2011
    I am kind of curious about Lego's order/website designations of "In Process," "Sold Out," "Back Ordered," and "Out of Stock." It would be nice to have an official clarification/definition of these terms.

    To me, "In Process" means the goods are on the way. "Sold Out" means the goods are gone for good. "Back Ordered" mean they have to evaluate and determine if there are enough sets to be shipped (no new manufacturing). "Out of Stock" means they don't have any available to ship at the moment, but will be manufacturing new sets.

    Perhaps a thread with official definitions including acronyms, etc. would be in order. But not to digress, can anyone shed light on the differences in the order designations? I hate splitting hairs, but it would be nice to have a better understanding of the terminology on Lego orders.
  • streekerstreeker Member Posts: 299
    edited November 2011
    I think there are no hard or fast rules about Sold Out sets on the website. I remember very clearly a few months ago 8038 Battle of Endor was Sold Out and the hew and cry that sounded for its death knell was pretty loud. Well, it's been magically resurrected, because it's right now available for purchase. That's not the only set the came back from the Sold Out death.

    LEGO is supposed to be fun, not anxiety-inducing. Don't worry too much, buy what you like and what you can afford.

    @LegoFanTexas, if there was a prize for Most Understanding Spouse of the Year, your wife would be the clear champion. You need to get her something super special for Christmas, and it best not be LEGO.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    @LegoFanTexas, if there was a prize for Most Understanding Spouse of the Year, your wife would be the clear champion. You need to get her something super special for Christmas, and it best not be LEGO.
    I bought my wife a pair of Lego earrings on eBay last year. She works with kids and actually wears them from time to time. The kids love 'em.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    I am kind of curious about Lego's order/website designations of "In Process," "Sold Out," "Back Ordered," and "Out of Stock." It would be nice to have an official clarification/definition of these terms.

    To me, "In Process" means the goods are on the way. "Sold Out" means the goods are gone for good. "Back Ordered" mean they have to evaluate and determine if there are enough sets to be shipped (no new manufacturing). "Out of Stock" means they don't have any available to ship at the moment, but will be manufacturing new sets.

    Perhaps a thread with official definitions including acronyms, etc. would be in order. But not to digress, can anyone shed light on the differences in the order designations? I hate splitting hairs, but it would be nice to have a better understanding of the terminology on Lego orders.
    I think that if you are seeing backordered on sets that are now Sold out (and have been out a while) you can forget about getting them. I jusy hope if this occurs with my order that I get my VIP points used reimbursed
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I agree...Very few will receive sets that are now sold out, but are listed as backordered on their order. Lego makes no effort to ship from their B&M stores to make good on those orders, even if they have the sets in stock.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    What are everyone's thoughts on the Death Star? S@H has it backordered, and I've been waiting on a deal on this thing forever (missed it on Amazon for $359), but at the same time, I'm REALLY tempted to just shell out the $400 for it now, as I feel pretty certain this one is going to get expensive pretty quickly once it drops off for good.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    edited November 2011
    ^^ However, I can always mention one great instance of LEGO working well with their B&M stores. Back when the UCS Falcon was announced to be retired and was being sold for $375 on their May 4th sale a couple of years ago, I had ordered one. I ended up being on vacation and wasn't home when UPS attempted to deliver the package to my home. For some reason UPS thought that since I wasn't home they were going to send the package back to LEGO. I had been tracking the package on-line. When I saw the status flip to something like 'returning to sender' I called repeatedly to UPS and LEGO. LEGO said they couldn't do anything, but UPS assured me they would re-route it back to me. As I tracked it, it never hit stops back to my home. The UPS guy I had been talking to finally said "Huh, I guess we couldn't re-route it." Dumbasses. Anyway, by this time it was long sold out. I talked to LEGO customer service and they said there's nothing they can do about the packages returning. The just end up in a warehouse - they have no tracking of the packages returning, so there's nothing they could do to intercept it. I asked about getting one from a B&M store. They called around and found one at the store in Dallas. They had the store ship it to me - no charge for shipping. You can't imagine the relief.
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