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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited June 2014
    Looks like the Tower Bridges are shipping. If anyone had any cancelled call Walmart and they should price adjust back to $148.79 and fill the order since they still have stock. Taking my trailer down to the local store next week to pickup...another good year :)
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    how did i miss this tower bridge sale?
    FollowsClosely
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Don't worry ebay will be flooded with TB with shipping labels slapped on the box before too long :)

    Still plenty of sets retiring this year that will bring nice coin down the road.....stay focused 2014 is going to be a memorable one and alot of stuff will disappear quickly and unexpectedly.


  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,295
    dougts said:

    how did i miss this tower bridge sale?

    This sale sounds like the best thing in a long time. Was this sale posted here on bs? #@$%^! I hate missing a good sale!

  • timinchicagotiminchicago Member Posts: 239
    Hmmm... #10211 Grand Emporium has been sold out in US and Canada for a couple of days now.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454

    dougts said:

    how did i miss this tower bridge sale?

    This sale sounds like the best thing in a long time. Was this sale posted here on bs? #@$%^! I hate missing a good sale!

    Definitely not posted in the forum. Oh well :(

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,757
    mathew said:

    ecmo47 said:

    I just sold a used #10188 for $450.00 to someone in the USA. I went looking for it and found that it's gone from all major retailers. Lego.com (US) says "Out of stock, will ship in 30 days" but no definite date. Is this the beginning of the end of an 8 year run?

    You totally ripped off that poor schmuck. Does he not live near a Lego Store? Does he not understand that he can still order it from [email protected]?

    I would not say 'ripped off' If someone buys it for that price how did he rip anyone off?

    Hmmm... #10211 Grand Emporium has been sold out in US and Canada for a couple of days now.

    Interesting. Kinda unexpected as I figured they last until the fall.
    Pitfall69 said:

    dougts said:

    how did i miss this tower bridge sale?

    This sale sounds like the best thing in a long time. Was this sale posted here on bs? #@$%^! I hate missing a good sale!

    Definitely not posted in the forum. Oh well :(

    Apparently too many people filling up trailers of them to bother posting.. Oh well.
    FollowsCloselyTheLoneTensorPitfall69
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited June 2014
    ecmo47 said:

    mathew said:

    ecmo47 said:

    I just sold a used #10188 for $450.00 to someone in the USA. I went looking for it and found that it's gone from all major retailers. Lego.com (US) says "Out of stock, will ship in 30 days" but no definite date. Is this the beginning of the end of an 8 year run?

    You totally ripped off that poor schmuck. Does he not live near a Lego Store? Does he not understand that he can still order it from [email protected]?
    No I dont think so. A quick check of prices at all major retailers shows that my price is the lowest CURRENTLY available. Maybe it was needed for a birthday gift and they could not wait for Lego's indifinite delivery date.

    Also, with tax (assume 8%) a 10188 would cost around $432.00 so I would hardly think $18.00 is "a total rip-off". Service does count for something.

    And I did inform the person of the fact that they MAY be able to get it cheaper if they wait a while.

    Bottom line is that you should not be so quick to judge and label.
    Considering that this person could have bought it used cheaper state side (based on your post you are not in the United States) then yes he was ignorant and you took advantage of that fact. Cool for you. But don't be surprised if he/she rejects your package and you get stuck with customs fees (or whatever).

    With that said, if shipping costs were included with that $450 and then whatever ebay/paypal fees,... and if the Death Star is indeed retiring then you may have screwed yourself. So, so much for bragging rights, eh? ; )

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,757
    mathew said:

    ecmo47 said:

    mathew said:

    ecmo47 said:

    I just sold a used #10188 for $450.00 to someone in the USA. I went looking for it and found that it's gone from all major retailers. Lego.com (US) says "Out of stock, will ship in 30 days" but no definite date. Is this the beginning of the end of an 8 year run?

    You totally ripped off that poor schmuck. Does he not live near a Lego Store? Does he not understand that he can still order it from [email protected]?
    No I dont think so. A quick check of prices at all major retailers shows that my price is the lowest CURRENTLY available. Maybe it was needed for a birthday gift and they could not wait for Lego's indifinite delivery date.

    Also, with tax (assume 8%) a 10188 would cost around $432.00 so I would hardly think $18.00 is "a total rip-off". Service does count for something.

    And I did inform the person of the fact that they MAY be able to get it cheaper if they wait a while.

    Bottom line is that you should not be so quick to judge and label.
    Considering that this person could have bought it used cheaper state side (based on your post you are not in the United States) then yes he was ignorant and you took advantage of that fact. Cool for you. But don't be surprised if he/she rejects your package and you get stuck with customs fees (or whatever).

    With that said, if shipping costs were included with that $450 and then whatever ebay/paypal fees,... and if the Death Star is indeed retiring then you may have screwed yourself. So, so much for bragging rights, eh? ; )

    WHOA...... Maybe you are seeing something I am not here, but...
    If he sells it to a guy that decided to overpay from retail, HOW is that taking advantage of that person? Did he hold a gun to the guy's head and say 'Buy this used set for more than retail or Ill blow your head off?'

    No, he put it up, someone bought it. Now, if the seller said this is the cheapest you will ever find it, I kind of understand your comments, but I do not believe the seller said this.
    As for the contention the guy returns it and the seller is 'screwed': If the buyer does, I'm guessing they get pinged by eBay. The seller gets the set back to sell again once it DOES go EOL and makes more anyway.

    Do I like it when people overpay for something? Not really, it just is silly IMO. However people do. I see it all the time on eBay with LEGO parts. It is what it is, I do not seller how this seller is evil or malicious in anyway, if fact the OP only was really asking if DS is done, not 'hey I just totally screwed this guy buying a used DS for 450'.

    Plus where does this end? You start to sound like someone that buys an EOL set in box, and complains they paid 100 for an item that had a 39.99 price tag when new.
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112

    Hmmm... #10211 Grand Emporium has been sold out in US and Canada for a couple of days now.

    Was in glasgow store today to pick up a #10211 grand emporium , none on shelves so I asked if they had any in the back and the guy said no we don't stock then anymore,
    I ask him is it gone and he said yes. EOL must be soon on this.
    Picked up a HH instead.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Was the used DS built? I didn't have the time to build one so I happily bought mine used and already built. Maybe the buyer did not want to put 10 hours of labor into the set.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,295
    ^ Well stated.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited June 2014
    rocao said:

    It looks like it was discussed on another LEGO board and not shared here. It's not a total shock that those that identify with that crowd would keep it to themselves, but if they also lurk here without contributing, their ability to participate in this category might be reconsidered.

    Of particular poor form is choosing not to share knowledge of sales, and then coming around later and boasting of it.

    FollowsCloselyMatthewMathBuilderRainstorm26DougoutStormKitty
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    Actually I see very few sales posted on this forum anymore. You have to visit Brickpicker, Slickdeals, ToysnBricks to catch them. This forum is more or less a jokey, slap on the back type place than anything else.
  • joel4motionjoel4motion Member Posts: 959
    edited June 2014

    Hmmm... #10211 Grand Emporium has been sold out in US and Canada for a couple of days now.

    I am sure I only checked a couple of weeks back but has #10221 SSD also changed from available in a month or so to sold out? If both remain sold out then it is two stalwarts disappearing....
    FollowsClosely
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,535
    The Lego store in Northpark Mall Dallas had three GE's remaining when I left there this afternoon if anyone in the area still needs one.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 Member Posts: 2,101
    ^ and you wonder why? I dare to make a few dollars on a set and get raked over the coals for it. You can’t loudly express your opinion and not expect the contributors of real information to shy away from sharing information will just be criticized and ridiculed by the “little Timmy” crowd….
    FollowsCloselysweetness34dougtsvitreolum
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    mathew said:

    Actually I see very few sales posted on this forum anymore. You have to visit Brickpicker, Slickdeals, ToysnBricks to catch them. This forum is more or less a jokey, slap on the back type place than anything else.

    In general, have there really any good deals recently, though, on any of these? (Outside of the obvious TB that was not posted here, I really have not seen much of anything on any site. ) There have been the occasional Amazon items, but those are observable looking at the amazon info on the front page.

    We are smack dab in the midst of the typical dead zone for good sales or clearances. July/August there will be some potential deals, but typically there is just not much posted around now.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    There has not been much of note in the UK. There is the odd set that is not as cheap as it has been in the past, which is hardly worth noting.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337

    Hmmm... #10211 Grand Emporium has been sold out in US and Canada for a couple of days now.

    Like I said stuff this year will go quickly and unexpectedly. Be very aggressive with the retiring sets - visit the other forums to find out what those are as apparently this place is out of the loop nowdays.


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    rocao said:

    It looks like it was discussed on another LEGO board and not shared here. It's not a total shock that those that identify with that crowd would keep it to themselves, but if they also lurk here without contributing, their ability to participate in this category might be reconsidered.

    Of particular poor form is choosing not to share knowledge of sales, and then coming around later and boasting of it.

    Consider for a minute that those deals stopped getting posted awhile ago when the reseller bashers were allowed to run wild...

    The rabid hate for anyone who wanted to make a buck was so bad at one point that I left for a few months, as did a few others, some of those people never returned...

    Look at how absurd the whole running 27% off thing became, and no one put a stop to it. Why would you expect someone who finds such deals to post them here after that treatment?
    dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited June 2014
    To be honest, I'm actually ok with people withholding information about sales and how to get 27% off Exclusives. What bothers me (and it doesn't bother me that much) is when people boast how they happened upon such great sales or discounts and either didn't bother to share the info or doesn't want to divulge how they get such discounts.

    With that said, it doesn't bother me that much and that is why enjoy posting memes about it, but I'm sure there are people that do get very upset about people bragging about stuff like that.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    That is understandable, posting about a great deal that wasn't posted here, I can understand...

    That being said, the 27% thing should never have been allowed in this thread, this is (or was) supposed to be a safe place for resellers, and it was taken too far, IMHO...

    I said a year ago that we needed a separate section of the forum for resellers, where it was safe to talk about money and profits and LEGO from a business point of view, so it was clear what was allowed where.

    The lack of that has driven much of the good reseller information to other places.
    FollowsCloselydougts
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,757
    edited June 2014

    That is understandable, posting about a great deal that wasn't posted here, I can understand...

    That being said, the 27% thing should never have been allowed in this thread, this is (or was) supposed to be a safe place for resellers, and it was taken too far, IMHO...

    I said a year ago that we needed a separate section of the forum for resellers, where it was safe to talk about money and profits and LEGO from a business point of view, so it was clear what was allowed where.

    The lack of that has driven much of the good reseller information to other places.

    So people can brag about how they bought out a store (or get 27% on exclusives when no one else can seem to figure it out), or ordered enough to have to take the trailer to a store to pick up their gains, and anyone that has an issue with that needs 'tougher skin' and to 'deal with it'. However, 'poor' resellers getting bashed for bragging about such actions is not allowed because you may hurt their feelings... hmmmm I sense a double standard.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,535
    If we are being fair, there has been a lot of loud and stupid on both sides of the reselling fence in the past. But please for the love of all that is plastic, do not make this thread into Limited Edition Crawler Thread 2.0
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    My feelings weren't hurt and I love pitfalls pics!

    It is always those doing the proper bashing that are begging for the info so that is the main reason I don't post much on this board anymore. As I said the 27% will get abused to death very quickly but it is there for those who know how to stack a number of discounts so that is why I mention it. Well GE is done so if you want one you better call you store and hope they will hold one for you. 2 down, 3 to go.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,535
    edited June 2014
    ^ two down being exclusives?
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited June 2014

    ^ two down being exclusives?

    i am not sure but the 2 being referred to are
    #10197 Firebrigade and
    #10211 Grand Emporium

    the 3 on the next list would be
    #10221 Super Star Destroyer { or its part of the two above not sure because i keep hearing that there is another shipment coming to S&H }

    #10188 Death Star
    #10220 Volkswagen T1 Camper Van
    #10214 Tower Bridge
    Milne44
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916


    That being said, the 27% thing should never have been allowed in this thread, this is (or was) supposed to be a safe place for resellers, and it was taken too far, IMHO...

    I think the "thing" happened because it appeared to be an outlandish statement with absolutely no hint of how it might be obtained. If you're gonna mention that and then give nothing extra it comes across as a little "dickish" (to borrow from another forum expression).

    As I said the 27% will get abused to death very quickly but it is there for those who know how to stack a number of discounts so that is why I mention it.

    This is the first real hint at how the 27% can be obtained, so I now assume it involves potentially cash back sites, cash back credit cards and probably sale gift cards among other things. Of course I could be wrong but even this simple statement from the beginning probably would have avoided the whole 27% thing because it would not have seemed so outlandish. Before it almost seemed as if @doriansdad was implying 27% could be had as an actual discount straight up (at least it came across that way to me).

    Essentially stating that one can get 27% off of any exclusive whenever one wants comes across as braggadocio wrapped in hyperbole to boot. Is some of the sarcasm borne out of envy, of course it is. But it is also a healthy dose of skepticism. I think in general the 27% run was just silliness in general which this particular thread has in spades.
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275

    and it was taken too far, IMHO...

    But was it taken 27% too far? Too soon? J/k @LFT =)
    Pitfall69Rainstorm26dougtstiminchicagocloaked7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    @pharmjod
    By the way, I was the one that apparently was being a bit "dickish" that day. Go figure?
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    Also, I should say that I imagine @doriansdad is a perfectly decent person. I appreciate the commentary he does provide when he posts, it is just that certain posts can come across in a poor light. We all have done it before I'm sure. I was merely commenting on some of the mindset behind the 27% memes.
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    I honestly don't take issue with the posts that are borderline gloating, especially when it's in the "Reseller/Video Game Systems/Gift Card Discussion/Memes" thread. It does kind of p!ss me off though when I hear about the aftermath of a great sale when there was zero mention of it on this site. I guess I am under the delusion that this a community of collectors and enthusiast first and that sharing these finds with others and thus being informed of these finds by others is far more beneficial than being a hoarder.

    There is not a single person here that hasn't benefited from sharing. So, anyone who makes the conscious decision to keep a fire sale to themselves has decided to take without giving back. period. That doesn't make you a super awesome savvy reseller - it makes you an a$$hole.

    PS: the phrase "super awesome savvy reseller" is copyrighted by @CircleK‌ 2014 - All Rights Reserved.
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Member Posts: 1,011
    I really just like the running joke of the 27%. I have nothing against resellers or people that can get 27% off.
    Pitfall69RonyarAmbroisetalorien
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    CircleK said:

    So, anyone who makes the conscious decision to keep a fire sale to themselves has decided to take without giving back. period. That doesn't make you a super awesome savvy reseller - it makes you an a$$hole.

    I told precisely 27% of folks on this board about the Tower Bridge sale...sorry you were among the 73%.
    dougtsLegoFanTexasPitfall69AmbroiseRainstorm26
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,331
    @doriansdad is right it would be exploited to death and then shut down so I can't blame him for keeping it to himself. In that situation you have a choice: don't mention it at all or do and expect some ribbing. So long as he's getting the 27% I don't expect he's too bothered.

    There's definitely an argument for some people always taking and never giving back (and I've made it before) but actually I've noticed @doriansdad giving some very solid advice about eBay and info about sets that are or are not retiring which will have helped many. Just saying its possible to get 27% might have helped a few work it out as well.

    So all that suggests to me there was no need to shut down the 27% comments as the one person who could have taken offense seems to have actually been more involved not less.

    That said it's a shame a good deal wasn't posted about here, although it always seemed the US deals threads were a little more hit and miss than the UK equivalent and they've been as strong as ever.
    FatMatt
  • ShibShib Member Posts: 5,459


    That said it's a shame a good deal wasn't posted about here, although it always seemed the US deals threads were a little more hit and miss than the UK equivalent and they've been as strong as ever.

    After the comment yesterday about more deals being posted on other forums I had a little nosey round and I got the feeling most of them had stronger posts from the US compared to UK...but that's a quick drawn conclusion to a brief look around, might be different if you watch them daily.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited June 2014

    Consider for a minute that those deals stopped getting posted awhile ago when the reseller bashers were allowed to run wild...

    The rabid hate for anyone who wanted to make a buck was so bad at one point that I left for a few months, as did a few others, some of those people never returned...

    Nope, sorry. Both sides of the argument were giving as good as they got; for every comment about greedy resellers there was one about whiny crybabies to accompany it.

    And rather than "hate for anyone who wanted to make a buck", I think it's much more accurate to say that it was criticism of the actions of those who seem willing to do anything to make a buck. The two instances that by far drew the most attention were situations where the person claimed to have played by the rules, and it was later revealed that not only had they circumvented the rules but they saw nothing wrong with their actions.

    It's ironic that you say that those opposed to reselling caused resellers to leave. I hope you haven't lost sight of the fact that an entire segment of members that were very much the original core of the forum withdrew because the staff decided that reselling discussion had a place here. In the end, anyone's decision to withdraw is their own.

    I have to call you out on your own hiatus though, because it sounds too much like you're painting yourself as a victim. I remember the environment during your absence was not inhospitable and was quite the opposite. The only messages posted about you were from people hoping you would return, which I imagine you read because your 'last active' time showed that you were visiting the forum daily for the entire duration of your martyrdom.

    I'm very curious: are you able to even name one frequent deal poster that was driven away in what you describe as the reseller inquisition?

    The lack of sharing is not a new phenomenon. When we made the "Buying and Selling" category viewable to members only, we had a huge surge in registrations from lurkers who had only taken from the community and not given anything back.

    People surely have their reasons for not sharing. I think the leading reasons are a deeply-ingrained competitiveness, fear that their situation will worsen from collective awareness, and laziness. I just don't see 'fear of being labelled a reseller' very high on that list. The whole reason things came to a head was because resellers were unabashed, unashamed, and unapologetic, and not because they were shrinking violets.

    Look at how absurd the whole running 27% off thing became, and no one put a stop to it. Why would you expect someone who finds such deals to post them here after that treatment?

    Do you realize that many of the people perpetuating the 27% are dyed-in-the-wool resellers? The 'absurdity' of 27% was the same thing that transpired previously with "Red 5 standing by" and "dickish" and pages and pages of the same movie quotes, all said in jest, and which you yourself have participated in on many occasions.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Let's try for some good prediction discussion. With GE now EOL (and alot sooner than most thought) who thinks it will surpass FB in price? Expandable corner building vs classic but overbought firestation. Personally I think GE will blow by FB fairly quickly once Europe sells out.

  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,535
    edited June 2014
    I think short term the GE might overtake the FB, say Oct-Dec of this year. Long term however I think FB is more desirable and will have the advantage.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454

    Let's try fo9r some good prediction discussion. With GE now EOL (and alot sooner than most thought) who thinks it will surpass FB in price? Expandable corner building vs classic but overbought firestation. Personally I think GE will blow by FB fairly quickly once Europe sells out.

    I think short term the GE might overtake the FB, say Oct-Dec of this year. Long term however I think FB is more desirable and will have the advantage.

    If GE does "blow by" FB, it will be by the mere fact that resellers don't have as many GE's stockpiled than they do FB's.

    pharmjodmadforLEGO
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I have 10 GE, which is 10 less than I had originally planned on getting, but I got gunshy when FB persisted and persisted and just never got around to buying more. I think it will do ok though.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited June 2014
    Fire Brigade benefited by being released after CC, GG and MS and most people probably thought that FB would do just as well, but it hung around for a very long time and was on sale a bunch of times.

    People were more conservative with their purchases of GE.
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    edited June 2014
    mathew said:

    Actually I see very few sales posted on this forum anymore. You have to visit Brickpicker, Slickdeals, ToysnBricks to catch them. This forum is more or less a jokey, slap on the back type place than anything else.

    tamamahm said:

    In general, have there really any good deals recently, though, on any of these? (Outside of the obvious TB that was not posted here, I really have not seen much of anything on any site. ) There have been the occasional Amazon items, but those are observable looking at the amazon info on the front page.

    I'm pretty active on BrickPicker and there hasn't been a dry spell on sales. They have been fast and furious all year.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited June 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    If GE does "blow by" FB, it will be by the mere fact that resellers don't have as many GE's stockpiled than they do FB's.

    My thoguhts exactly. Corner buildings (especially ones that were designed to be expanded with two sets) will always command a premium IMO and I know stock levels for GE are alot lower than FB. Will be very interesting to see where we are in 1 year for both sets.

    FollowsClosely
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    There's been a lot of rumor about it retiring soon, but I was still surprised when it actually happened. And it's also interesting how fast other retailers sold out of it as well. I figured when [email protected] was out, I'd have a chance to grab just a few more at $150. But it seemed like they went cold first.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,295
    I have invested equally in FB and GE. I would be surprise if GE ever overtakes the FB.
  • MatthewMatthew Administrator Posts: 3,714
    How long does everyone think the GE has got in Europe?
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