Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

iluvmyelement

and my phone call gave me enough info that there is enough stock for at least 3 months (if not longer).

Milne44

Can we count down for the VW Camper, with the mini coming out on 1st August, I think this will go EOL by end of year

bee

iluvmyelement said:

and my phone call gave me enough info that there is enough stock for at least 3 months (if not longer).

Are you talking about GE?

iluvmyelement

Actually I did ask about GE and the VW Camper - and both had 3+ months of stock but my statement was referring to GE specifically.

bee

^ Great Job! So what does it mean when Amazon, Target, TRU, and Walmart are out of stock? They will receive more?

iluvmyelement

bee said:

^ Great Job! So what does it mean when Amazon, Target, TRU, and Walmart are out of stock? They will receive more?

He said there were no shipments showing from the factory - but that didn't necessarily mean there wouldn't be more. He said the factory often just produces batches based on sales numbers and ships them without notice. He did say that 4 years was longer than expected for it's run and that it is likely to be gone before the end of the year but there was enough stock to last through the summer from what he could see.

My personal opinion is that if they do a double or triple points promotion this will likely sell out then - so if that happens before fall I would order as quick as possible during the promotion.

Pitfall69

iluvmyelement said:

If you call Lego [email protected] and can sweet talk a rep, they can look in their system and see how many are left in stock and if there will be more shipments. I've done it a couple times. They may not tell you the exact qty - but they can tell you "we have good stock" or "we are very low" and they can see if there is an order into the factory for more to come.

iluvmyelement said:

and my phone call gave me enough info that there is enough stock for at least 3 months (if not longer).

You do know that Lego [email protected] stock and Lego Brand Stores stock come from different sources?

iluvmyelement

Pitfall69 said:

iluvmyelement said:

If you call Lego [email protected] and can sweet talk a rep, they can look in their system and see how many are left in stock and if there will be more shipments. I've done it a couple times. They may not tell you the exact qty - but they can tell you "we have good stock" or "we are very low" and they can see if there is an order into the factory for more to come.

iluvmyelement said:

and my phone call gave me enough info that there is enough stock for at least 3 months (if not longer).

You do know that Lego [email protected] stock and Lego Brand Stores stock come from different sources?

Absolutely - I was talking about [email protected] [email protected] typically sells out before the brand stores. That being said - when there are open orders at the factory it indicates the stock will last more than 6 months for both.

Pitfall69

The Grand Emporium should be a decent gauge on how future retired Modular Buildings do in the aftermarket. The Fire Brigade is one of the more popular Modulars and a Fire Station. The Grand Emporium, from what many have said, is a boring build, but it is a corner building. I also think that there were less GE's produced than FB's and that not as many people have hoarded them like Fire Brigade was.

iluvmyelement

I think Pet Shop will do better than GE in the after market once both are out of production (because you can split them up and have narrow buildings or keep them together and you can use multiple to make row houses and fill out a street (just change the pet store to other stores in multiple buildings)

Pitfall69

I will not go out on a limb and say that Pet Shop will do better than Grand Emporium. I do, however, think that Town Hall will do poorly.

I love the Pet Shop and hope that future sets will have 2 separate footprints, so you can move them around.

Bumblepants

^I think the rumored Detective Agency could do that nicely. Half DA, and the other half an apartment or townhouse segment. Perhaps some other establishment that fits nicely with the DA.

ecmo47

Pitfall69 said:

The Grand Emporium should be a decent gauge on how future retired Modular Buildings do in the aftermarket. The Fire Brigade is one of the more popular Modulars and a Fire Station. The Grand Emporium, from what many have said, is a boring build, but it is a corner building. I also think that there were less GE's produced than FB's and that not as many people have hoarded them like Fire Brigade was.

It may be a boring build (aren't all buildings?) but the GE is a real looker with some extra floors!

Pitfall69

I haven't built my GE. I'm just going on what people have said. It is that same reason I won't build my Town Hall.

tamamahm

^ It looks nice on the outside, but the inside is what has really turned me off to this one.

brickupdate

I agree with @Pitfall69 - Pet Shop is one of my favorite modulars because it offers so much flexibility in varying your layout. Also, because each half is something you could use multiples of. You could have 10 brownstones in a row, block after block, and that would mimic reality. For the pet store, you could make all kinds of small variations so that you have different stores all over town.

As for GE - I feel like folks have been stocking up on it for years, and it doesn't seem to have anything in particular that makes it "amazing." I like it, but it doesn't grab the eye as much as others do, and aren't as functional as something such as the Fire Brigade.

Pitfall69

You could do quite a bit with the Pet Shop. Yes, you can line up a bunch of Brownstones, but you could also do a mirror image of some and line them up that way. As far as the Pet Shop itself, you could also do a mirror image of that and/or change the letters. I just filled that area with clear wall elements and made a different shop.

Pitfall69

I love 1/2 footprints much better. Here I made a Barbershop using the Pet Shop as inspiration. a "custom" 1/2 footprint of the Green Grocer.

CircleK

I finally purchased my GE a couple of weeks ago so that my collection would be complete, but just like @pittfall - I have no plans to build it anytime soon. I haven't bought the TH yet, but it will get the same treatment when I do. Neither look like much fun to me.

I haven't built my Petshop yet due to time, but was wondering if I should buy a spare to part out. I've been wanting to build up some inventory to MOC with (mostly buildings) and the Petshop looks like a decent place to start. As it is currently, I don't have many lose bricks bc I don't like repurposing my sets.

Pitfall69

I think the Pet Shop is a great parts set. The colors are unique. I'm going to do the same eventually. We have a lot of time before Pet Shop goes. Wait for Double or even Triple VIP points to make those purchases. Unless...No, not going to say it :)

CircleK

Pitfall69 said:

I love 1/2 footprints much better. Here I made a Barbershop using the Pet Shop as inspiration. a "custom" 1/2 footprint of the Green Grocer.

Do I spy an old school gum ball machine outside the grocer?! I was just looking into ways to make a custom one from my GG too bc well... It just needs one. I've always thought that was the one thing truly missing from that set!

bee

So do you guys think SSD is done?

dougts

Pitfall69 said:

I will not go out on a limb and say that Pet Shop will do better than Grand Emporium. I do, however, think that Town Hall will do poorly.

I love the Pet Shop and hope that future sets will have 2 separate footprints, so you can move them around.

Unfortunately I don't see this happening. The sheer amount of extra 1x brick needed to form those extra two walls is going to make it a non starter. PR probably has half the amount of 1x brick that PS had. The modular line, like most others, continues to see price inflation combined with raw plastic reduction. LEGO seems more than thrilled to trade in tiny bits and detailing pieces while they trade out bulk 1x brick

Pitfall69

CircleK said:

Pitfall69 said:

I love 1/2 footprints much better. Here I made a Barbershop using the Pet Shop as inspiration. a "custom" 1/2 footprint of the Green Grocer.

Do I spy an old school gum ball machine outside the grocer?! I was just looking into ways to make a custom one from my GG too bc well... It just needs one. I've always thought that was the one thing truly missing from that set!

It is just a gumball machine from a Friends set :)

TheLoneTensor

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TheLoneTensor

I think Lego can't wait to get back to $200 for the modulars. It's hard to do it out of nowhere like they tried with the TH. Even though it had a lot more bricks, I think it suffered from sticker shock (I have no data for this, just totally speculating based on board feedback).

So, I totally see them trying something like this. Release the next modular as a single, half-wide model, priced at $100, even though current prices would dictate closer to $75-$80. Then they can follow up that with a $200 "full size" modular (same general size as all the others except TH) and it will appear reasonably priced. Hell, they can also make it a candy shop with 200 extra studs and 1x1's making up the candy and it'll fluff up over 2000 pieces too.

ecmo47

bee said:

So do you guys think SSD is done?

It's sold out at Lego.com USA and all of the major retailers. Amazon has them from third party seller starting at $580.00. I just sold my only extra copy for a hefty mark-up so I'd say it's gone.

scrumper

Sold out with an expected shipping date of 3rd July in The UK.

Dad

^ oos with an expected ship date of 3rd July. Totally different to sold out.

Brickarmor

@CircleK If you're just wanting to get the bricks, Sand Blue 1x4 and 1x6 bricks are pretty cheap on BL. If Pet Shop stays out as long as FB and GE they'll probably get even cheaper. For the $150 you'd spend on the set itself you could get a ton of bricks without any extraneous material.

SuperTramp

Dad said:

^ oos with an expected ship date of 3rd July. Totally different to sold out.

Its now sold out on the US site.

SuperTramp

Would this now be the time to purchase a SSD?

samiam391

SuperTramp said:

Would this now be the time to purchase a SSD?

Unless you can get it at retail, of course not.

I'd wager that 75% of the current mark-up is due to re-sellers buying other re-sellers stock. That's what most sets these days are banking on in terms of appreciation after retirement, which is why I'm predicting a crash of the market relatively soon. But that's just me :o)

FollowsClosely

Crash? I don't see how the crash would result in a fall much below retail for most sets. A Lego set will always be worth the price of the bricks.

Dad

Stick or twist? Dunno. I find it a funny one this. Was available at 20% off in the UK. All European Amazon's are out and the below rrp ones have gone from Ebay. I think this one's a case for me of stick with the low number of them I have and hold them. It's a lot of money tied up if they don't perform in the aftermarket. Imperial Shuttle was only a winner over here because you could get at big discounts from Amazon. I'm on the fence with this one.

littlepuppi

I personally think it will do well, I dont think there are loads tucked away....

Dad

^ I'm not sure that means that much these days. There's loads of FB's tucked away and they've done really well really quick although the rise may begin to level out now. Might even take a drop at Christmas if people are holding to sell then. I've found that to happen last couple of years due to the increased competition. It becomes a buyers market until 3 days before Christmas then people are wanting to drive miles and pick sets up at all hours . Thing with the SSD is it's cost prohibitive to many people at rrp. I've never been as unsure about a set as I am this one, so I aren't diving in. If it does very well then it's the one that got away. But the few I have I can afford to hold as long as I wish.

LegobrandonCP

Toys r us Canada still has the SSD, but $100 more than USD msrp. Shipping would be a killer too I would imagine.

111ins

TRU Canada has free shipping over $75

Milne44

I got two tucked away, payed £300 each for them, think they will do ok when gone.

Pitfall69

I didn't buy any for resell. There are better sets to invest in.

TheLoneTensor

littlepuppi said:

I personally think it will do well, I dont think there are loads tucked away....

The loads tucked away don't hold a candle to the normal supply lines of retailers (which includes [email protected]).

littlepuppi

Dad said:

^ I'm not sure that means that much these days. There's loads of FB's tucked away and they've done really well really quick although the rise may begin to level out now. Might even take a drop at Christmas if people are holding to sell then. I've found that to happen last couple of years due to the increased competition. It becomes a buyers market until 3 days before Christmas then people are wanting to drive miles and pick sets up at all hours . Thing with the SSD is it's cost prohibitive to many people at rrp. I've never been as unsure about a set as I am this one, so I aren't diving in. If it does very well then it's the one that got away. But the few I have I can afford to hold as long as I wish.

It is an iconic ship though, and its massive... I just cannot see it failing... Star Wars fans are also quite often money no object... 3 years time if it goes now it will be 800 - 1000 quid...

Pitfall69

^How is the Imperial Shuttle doing? I can't even get 2x RRP for it.

Pitfall69

As a die hard Star Wars fan, The Imperial Star Destroyer is more iconic than the SSD. This, of course, is my opinion, but I'm sure many would agree with me.

LegobrandonCP

111ins said:

TRU Canada has free shipping over $75

Oops, I meant to say shipping over to the USA.

prevere

Pitfall69 said:

^How is the Imperial Shuttle doing? I can't even get 2x RRP for it.

Getting 2x rrp for many recent sets ($150 and up) is going to be tough when you're trying to flip in 12 months. IS and DA are perfect examples. Widely seen as can't miss, both are longer-term investments at this point. You make more money flipping smaller sets. But if you don't mind stashing away for 5 years, you'll get 2x rrp.

I say this as a full participant in both the IS and DA countdowns.

brickupdate

@littlepuppi has a point. There seems to be no ceiling for the value that now-adult Star Wars fans will pay for collectibles. Since this generation is going to be earning more and more for awhile to come, the SSD will likely do well in the aftermarket - OVER TIME. And it's clearly a ship that LEGO wouldn't make again within the next 10 years.

I say this, regardless of my personal belief that its just a box of gray bricks, and the feeling that we are in a "LEGO reseller bubble."

Farmer_John

prevere said:

Getting 2x rrp for many recent sets ($150 and up) is going to be tough when you're trying to flip in 12 months. IS and DA are perfect examples. Widely seen as can't miss, both are longer-term investments at this point. You make more money flipping smaller sets. But if you don't mind stashing away for 5 years, you'll get 2x rrp.

I say this as a full participant in both the IS and DA countdowns.

The risk with holding any Lego set for 5 years is that TLG releases another similar set. Then you get to hold it even longer. ;-)

Farmer_John

Dad said:

^Thing with the SSD is it's cost prohibitive to many people at rrp. I've never been as unsure about a set as I am this one, so I aren't diving in. If it does very well then it's the one that got away.

My exact sentiments regarding the SSD! If I was a betting man, I would say that it will do well...maybe even extremely well. However, it's one set that never floated my boat as they say...kind of like a set of Darth Maul's bust.