Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

There will definitely be new sets that go with the new movies. I'm hopeful that Lego will make some sets from the first Series of movies, but I'm not sure that will happen.

theLEGOman

Will they do a star wars though and release new versions of old sets with tons of new minifigs?

Pitfall69

^I'm sure they will. Although, they will focus more on sets for the new movie. HP is huge, but HP is no Star Wars.

madforLEGO

Right now the scuttlebutt I have seen is that this new trilogy is only referring to the 'world' that Potter lives in, and take place 70 years before Potter exists, meaning his parents also would likely not exist. This new set of movies will reportedly not have Potter himself.
So I guess Dumbledore may be around, and well as some of the older characters, but HP will reportedly not be in it.
Now the question would be if LEGO decided to release new sets based off of this new trilogy or not. If so, then you may, and I emphasis may, see demand for old HP sets.
I guess if you have the space and the want to hold onto HP sets until 2016, or whenever these get done, then more power to you. Not sure if they will go down in price between then and now. I remember that many 'first line' HP sets did drop once LEGO stopped keeping new lines around.

vitreolum

madforLEGO said:

If so, then you may, and I emphasis may, see demand for old HP sets.

There is demand for them right now, they still sell extremely well and prices are very slowly but constantly increasing for most of the good sets. A new movie will definitely make the sets more desired.

bobabricks

@vitreolum They did say that the last Harry Potter movie was the finale and Lego also said they would not be making any more waves of Harry Potter, Though IF it were to happen then I too would think it would be successful ;)

I just read the comments above (I'm really bad at doing that ;P) and are they actually making new movies? I remember hearing who ever makes HP (sorry I'm not a huge fan) said that year 7 would be the finale and I also heard Lego say that the last wave of HP would be the last... Typical Hollywood :/

Shib

I hadn't heard anything about these new films, the odd thing will be because they (in theory) won't be labeled as Harry Potter they might not generate as much interest. That said the films are still likely to do very well, and if TLG don't get the rights to make construction toys of these new films someone else almost certainly will. Assuming TLG want to get maximum profits from these they almost certainly will include a few Potter sets, but it's down to what they bring out as it how it will impact the prices for older sets.
All that said, a bit of a search around the net seemed to show that very little has happened towards the new films, except Rowling having written a very rough draft of the films basic shape and Warner Brothers saying it'll be a trilogy. No cast or director announced, so I'd imagine the new films and therefore the new sets are a while away yet.

hoyatables

Pitfall69 said:

What is everyones opinion about Harry Potter sets. I still have a few of the last wave sitting around and Diagon Alley. Have all HP sets reached their peak or are there certain sets that have room to grow? Also, is it worth holding on to some in hopes that the new movie will drum up interest?

I think they'll rise an additional 27%.

(You walked into that one.)

KingDave

I have a Duplo #3774 Bridge which is brand new and has been stashed away for a couple of years now. It was due to become a birthday present on Wednesday, but I have just checked and there are three listed on Amazon from £140 to £161.99 at the moment. There are a few used ones on Ebay, but none listed as new and no completed listing for new sets to be able to judge the ebay going rate. I know the Amazon prices are probably just overly optimistic speculators, but would (or could) I get anywhere near £140 if I put this on ebay now? If I could get anything close to £100 it would be daft not to sell it and just get #10508 Deluxe Train Set as it comes with a bridge anyway?

Any thought and advice appreciated.

Pitfall69

Sell. Sell. Sell.

brickupdate

@Pitfall69 Good question. The Harry Potter franchise is in that 'make or break' moment of keeping it culturally relevant without more books in the core series. So the Universal Studios theme park, the new movie, are all huge indicators of that.

Without new sets, I imagine current sets will continue to perform well, though I don't know where the true ceiling is.

dragonhawk

a

brickupdate said:

Without new sets, I imagine current sets will continue to perform well, though I don't know where the true ceiling is.

Most likely 27% higher than their prices today ;)

Matthew

The first of the 'new Harry Potter movies' is scheduled for 2016. I use that description loosely as @madforLEGO is correct in saying that they won't have too much in common with the existing HP films. Although set in the same world, they've been described as expanded universe. Possibly a couple of characters such as Dumbledore might feature but it's unlikely that many will. The main character is Newt Scamander, the author of one of HP's fictional school textbooks. It has been said that the films will have the same 'feel' as the HP ones, but it's also been mentioned that they might be targeted at a slightly older audience that the first few HP. Possibly the films might impact on the desirability of the older HP sets, though I'd say that's more likely to be affected by the theme park etc. I would imagine it's by no means certain that TLG would get (or attempt to get) the license for these films. I'm struggling to think of a suitable comparison right now, but the new films are far from a prequel/sequel to HP. There's slightly more info here.

graphite

^ I thought I read that while they're in the same "universe" (ie magical world where Hogwarts etc exists) that the movies were going to take place in a city like New York or something following Newt's stories or whatever. However it ends up it would be highly unlikely for new HP sets to arise from it.

Pitfall69

That's what I am thinking. I bet if someone set up a booth at Universal and sold Harry Potter Lego sets, they would make a killing.

LegoFanTexas

xeeeej said:

So do you then collect sales tax from your purchasers to subsequently remit?

Yes, I do. Only in Texas of course... That is how I get my tax back, I can subtract the extra tax paid from the payment to the state.

Example:

Total of $1,000 in LEGO sales to Texas customers, at 8.25% sales tax rate that is $82.50 in sales tax charged that I receive from customers.

Let's say I bought $300 worth of LEGO from the retail store and paid tax on it, that is $24.75.

I would actually send into the state $57.75 and keep the difference.

CCC

KingDave said:

I have a Duplo #3774 Bridge which is brand new and has been stashed away for a couple of years now. It was due to become a birthday present on Wednesday, but I have just checked and there are three listed on Amazon from £140 to £161.99 at the moment. There are a few used ones on Ebay, but none listed as new and no completed listing for new sets to be able to judge the ebay going rate. I know the Amazon prices are probably just overly optimistic speculators, but would (or could) I get anywhere near £140 if I put this on ebay now? If I could get anything close to £100 it would be daft not to sell it and just get #10508 Deluxe Train Set as it comes with a bridge anyway?

Any thought and advice appreciated.

I doubt you will get anywhere to close to £140 for it. But with listings now free on ebay if you don't do many, then it might be worth a punt. Nothing lost, after all.

I remember paying £18 for one (quite) a few years back. We've had a lot of fun with it over the years for that price.

Farmer_John

bobabricks said:

I just read the comments above (I'm really bad at doing that ;P) and are they actually making new movies? I remember hearing who ever makes HP (sorry I'm not a huge fan) said that year 7 would be the finale and I also heard Lego say that the last wave of HP would be the last... Typical Hollywood :/

Yeah...I remember everyone (including the author herself) stating that HP was done. I guess technically "Harry Potter" is done if they ware making movies about something else in the HP world.

I've never been a big fan of HP story (especially compared to LotR). That said, mother didn't raise no fool which is why I did set aside a few HP sets to sell after they EOL'd. There are just some sets that are obvious winners after being EOL'd. If there are HP movies coming out in 2016 and IF TLG plans to release new sets, the release will likely occur in the latter half of 2015. So if one plans to sell (as I do), it would probably be best to sell by 2Q15 in case TLG has a "wash, rinse, repeat" strategy planned for this theme. JMO.

jcb193

I have to disagree. Anything that brings attention back to the Harry Potter universe, will likely shed a light back on the HP lego sets. Even if they aren't related, it is still bringing relevance and ebay searches. Especially if there are new legos. Anything that Rowling does in this universe will not be some small low budget movie. Even if it has nothing to do with Harry, I can't imagine it not being a big deal.

prevere

Details on the HP universe movie for 2016, "Fantastic Beasts". Not much detail though. And no guarantee LEGO will jump on board, following a few years of Chima sets.

http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/14/5716178/harry-potter-spinoff-movie-fantastic-beasts-coming-november-2016

rocao

KingDave said:

I have a Duplo #3774 Bridge which is brand new and has been stashed away for a couple of years now. It was due to become a birthday present on Wednesday, but I have just checked and there are three listed on Amazon from £140 to £161.99 at the moment. There are a few used ones on Ebay, but none listed as new and no completed listing for new sets to be able to judge the ebay going rate. I know the Amazon prices are probably just overly optimistic speculators, but would (or could) I get anywhere near £140 if I put this on ebay now? If I could get anything close to £100 it would be daft not to sell it and just get #10508 Deluxe Train Set as it comes with a bridge anyway?

Any thought and advice appreciated.

The previous generation of Duplo Trains were discontinued in the US around 2008, and the current generation of sets were just released late 2013. That gave the old sets a lot of time to appreciate without any alternatives. Target also showed up with a bunch of old stock of #3772 for Black Friday 2012 and as a result the aftermarket prices for retired accessories surged.

I believe what you're seeing is pricing leftover from before the latest release, and agree with @CCC that you won't likely get that now.

Oh, and 27%

tamamahm

jcb193 said:

I have to disagree. Anything that brings attention back to the Harry Potter universe, will likely shed a light back on the HP lego sets. Even if they aren't related, it is still bringing relevance and ebay searches. Especially if there are new legos. Anything that Rowling does in this universe will not be some small low budget movie. Even if it has nothing to do with Harry, I can't imagine it not being a big deal.

I have to agree with this. The Star Wars Universe was not there overnight. It did take years, and steps, and time. I think The same is true with HP. These new movies are an extension of the HP universe, and not of the HP story. You draw light onto any part of the HP universe, you are going to shed light back onto HP.

Now, the question to me is this. Who was buying the HP Lego sets? Colletors or parents? Parents would have bought them because their kids missed out, and they did not realize they were gone. If that is the main consumer, then I think now is as good as time as any to sell, because while the books are not out of mind, the fact that there were Lego sets is out of mind. If collectors were a good percentage of the consumers, though, I think one could realistically wait. The only problem with waiting is that you are holding stock, where perhaps you could could better invest in something else and get a better return for those additional years of holding. *shrug* I think this one is a coin toss and I could call it either way.

prevere

I've gotten a bunch of people asking where to get Potter sets after they've come back from Orlando at Universal.

Pitfall69

prevere said:

I've gotten a bunch of people asking where to get Potter sets after they've come back from Orlando at Universal.

Wait until they see the prices :)

sweetness34

I heard a lady asking for Harry Potter sets while in the San Diego Lego store today.

Rainstorm26

My guess is there will be one 100 page book written an WB will springboard that to 3 movies just like the hobbit. That was a big mistake for the hobbit. Hopefully JK will not allow given how particular she is about everything she writes and related products.

graphite

^ The current book that the movies will be based on was like 60 or 80 pages. So they already know there needs to be more source material to pull of the 3 targeted movies.

Basta

Isn't the book more of a reference style book then story? If so it leaves the movie plot wide open I would think.

They'll probably get Dumbledore to cast a time travel spell and get Harry from 70 years in the future so he can save the world. :p

Pitfall69

graphite said:

^ The current book that the movies will be based on was like 60 or 80 pages. So they already know there needs to be more source material to pull of the 3 targeted movies.

Isn't the book that Monster book that Harry had to stomp on in Prisoner of Azkaban?

tamamahm

I'm seeing the time frame of the first movie is 11/16/16.
Rowling is writing three screenplays, so this isn't simply a 100 page book being turned into a movie. It sounds like WB pitched her the idea, but the idea of another author writing didn't feel right, so she went back and pitched her idea. I read somewhere else that she actually had some additional material that she already had written, but had not intended to turn into a book, but just leave to her kids, but instead is pulling into this. The reality is Rowling has such tons of backstory to her universe, that I do not see this similar to the "Let's turn Hobbit into 3 movies".

graphite

Pitfall69 said:

Isn't the book that Monster book that Harry had to stomp on in Prisoner of Azkaban?

According to the wiki that one is "The Monster Book of Monsters" where the movie is supposed to be based on "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them".

KingDave

rocao said:

KingDave said:

I have a Duplo #3774 Bridge which is brand new and has been stashed away for a couple of years now. It was due to become a birthday present on Wednesday, but I have just checked and there are three listed on Amazon from £140 to £161.99 at the moment. There are a few used ones on Ebay, but none listed as new and no completed listing for new sets to be able to judge the ebay going rate. I know the Amazon prices are probably just overly optimistic speculators, but would (or could) I get anywhere near £140 if I put this on ebay now? If I could get anything close to £100 it would be daft not to sell it and just get #10508 Deluxe Train Set as it comes with a bridge anyway?

Any thought and advice appreciated.

The previous generation of Duplo Trains were discontinued in the US around 2008, and the current generation of sets were just released late 2013. That gave the old sets a lot of time to appreciate without any alternatives. Target also showed up with a bunch of old stock of #3772 for Black Friday 2012 and as a result the aftermarket prices for retired accessories surged.

I believe what you're seeing is pricing leftover from before the latest release, and agree with @CCC that you won't likely get that now.

Oh, and 27%

I think it will be going on ebay at some point in early December. Never sold anything on ebay so I should probably put a few things on there before then to get some sort of a rating as a seller.

Pitfall69

graphite said:

Pitfall69 said:

Isn't the book that Monster book that Harry had to stomp on in Prisoner of Azkaban?

According to the wiki that one is "The Monster Book of Monsters" where the movie is supposed to be based on "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them".

Yeah, I believe that's the book. It has teeth and you have to stroke it in order to open it...lol.

Matthew

It is Fantastic Beasts not the monster one (with teeth). It's one of Harry's textbooks in the first book, and the version that JKR has written is just that, a textbook, albeit fictional and short. The three films are to be based on the author's experiences writing the textbook.

RomanticWarrior

Pitfall69 said:

prevere said:

I've gotten a bunch of people asking where to get Potter sets after they've come back from Orlando at Universal.

Wait until they see the my prices :) >:->

fixed it for you...

Pitfall69

RomanticWarrior said:

Pitfall69 said:

prevere said:

I've gotten a bunch of people asking where to get Potter sets after they've come back from Orlando at Universal.

Wait until they see the my prices :) >:->

fixed it for you...

I don't even know what my prices are :)

cloaked7

Pitfall69 said:

I don't even know what my prices are :)

In that case.... I heard that you're having a 27% off sale! :-)

starwarfan77

should we do a countdown for
#10211 GE :D

Pitfall69

^Is it time?

piratemania7

Countdown? Time? What do you mean? That's it. I'm buying a GE tonight. I need that hot dog diggity poly anyways!

starwarfan77

Pitfall69 said:

^Is it time?

looks like it. its OOS on all the major retailers website except the source itself :D ...

madforLEGO

I would be surprised if GE is officially done now and not in a few months.
Anything can happen but usually stuff starts officially being sold out=EOL around the Fall.
It is possible that with lack of discounts on these sets that retailers do not want to be 'stuck' with them after a certain date so they stopped ordering replacements now, but a bit surprising if they are really going to be out of stock everywhere by mid late summer.

bee

^Look at what happened to SSD

MathBuilder

FollowsClosely said:

Bumblepants said:

Just a quick heads up for those looking to make a quick buck, #70105 Nest Dive is now back in stock on [email protected] US at 50% off!! Act now before it is gone again!

Just grabbed 150 of them. I am going to make quick easy money, thanks! (Sarcasm)

Nest Dive is Call to check product availability, 3,2,1…
Act now!
:P

CCC

MathBuilder said:

Bumblepants said:

Just a quick heads up for those looking to make a quick buck, #70105 Nest Dive is now back in stock on [email protected] US at 50% off!! Act now before it is gone again!

Just grabbed 150 of them. I am going to make quick easy money, thanks! (Sarcasm)

Nest Dive is Call to check product availability, 3,2,1…
Act now!
:P

That is one of our favourite speedorz sets. Not to nest dive, but to aim for the arms and make it spin like a spinning top.

CoraHarrison

madforLEGO said:

I would be surprised if GE is officially done now and not in a few months.
Anything can happen but usually stuff starts officially being sold out=EOL around the Fall.
It is possible that with lack of discounts on these sets that retailers do not want to be 'stuck' with them after a certain date so they stopped ordering replacements now, but a bit surprising if they are really going to be out of stock everywhere by mid late summer.

Went into Lego Leeds about two weeks ago, noticed none on the shelf spoke to one of the staff who said that's it... Grab it online while you can but I know we have all heard that one before...

Brickarmor

[email protected] was out of GE for a while and restocked mid-May. I would guess that if they bothered to produce yet another batch (for themselves, not necessarily enough to send out to retailers) they made enough to last. Back in April, I was at a Lego store that didn't have any on the shelf, I asked and was told they weren't getting any more, and guess what was there when I went back in May?

CircleK

The Lego store in Columbus, OH had a few GEs on the shelf last night. I was kind of surprised to see them there.

I do think the writing is on the wall for that one tho. If you want it then I wouldn't put it off much longer.

madforLEGO

CoraHarrison said:

madforLEGO said:

I would be surprised if GE is officially done now and not in a few months.
Anything can happen but usually stuff starts officially being sold out=EOL around the Fall.
It is possible that with lack of discounts on these sets that retailers do not want to be 'stuck' with them after a certain date so they stopped ordering replacements now, but a bit surprising if they are really going to be out of stock everywhere by mid late summer.

Went into Lego Leeds about two weeks ago, noticed none on the shelf spoke to one of the staff who said that's it... Grab it online while you can but I know we have all heard that one before...

Yeah, the LEGO employees told me such things about 2 years before FB truly was gone. So I take anything LEGO employees say with a big grain of salt, heck I think I really do surprise them when I talk about a set that I saw due to come out but is not out yet.

I think we have to also remember LEGO employees would rather err on the side of caution and not say something like "Oh wait another year..." Because if they tell a customer that and it is gone in 2 months then the customer could complain.
Also, they would rather see a purchase that day than someone saying "Ok I'll wait"

With LEGO anything is possible. I think GE is gone this year, but likely will survive until around Thanksgiving here in the US (Late November) or a bit beyond. Sits with the new time frame set by FB, and it is not a hugely popular Modular (judging by many comments on this board) so I do not see it extended or anything like that.
I think that if any set is truly going EOL (no more produced that is) I'm guessing most times it is by late summer and gives one last chance for store to purchase for their shelves. Then stores still have remaining stock until shortly before Christmas or a bit later (depending on stocks and how popular the set is). Of course here is the States it also means TRU will likely have stock 6 months (or more) after stocks run out everywhere else because of TRUs exorbitant prices over RRP

iluvmyelement

If you call Lego [email protected] and can sweet talk a rep, they can look in their system and see how many are left in stock and if there will be more shipments. I've done it a couple times. They may not tell you the exact qty - but they can tell you "we have good stock" or "we are very low" and they can see if there is an order into the factory for more to come.