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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,986
    dougts said:

    So basically LEGO is going to do more limited run items, ensuring massive stockpiling and quick jumps in aftermarket pricing, all the while complaint about those darn nasty profiteering resellers

    Right. It makes little sense. Although... I wonder if they are doing short runs for unlicensed, and longer runs for licensed.

    I really can not imagine just a 10k run if Doctor Who gets approved.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,331
    I'm guessing in manufacturing number terms the line between a fairly obscure set that sells out fast and sits on the shelves is small. 10,000 rovers sells out but with 20,000 do a couple of thousand sit there for ever. Personally I like the rover and have one but it's in a completely different league to BTTF or ghostbusters. By delaying the exosuit they've now been alternating licenced set and non licensed set. If BTTF disappears as ghostbusters appears on the shelves that system makes sense. I wonder if that's why they've got the female minifig project sat in a holding pattern.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,331
    Saw this in today's paper and for some reason it brought a certain bricksetter to mind...

    http://metro.co.uk/2014/05/16/were-pony-entrapped-meet-the-adult-men-who-make-up-my-little-ponys-unlikeliest-fan-base-4729624/
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    BrickDancer said:

    ^After what happened with the Rover and their supposed rationale as to why, I wouldn't take any chances on the BttF set if you want it for yourself.

    The Mars Rover and BTTF are two completely different sets. One was a small tun and exclusive to lego store / LDCs the other has had a huge run and available just about everywhere. Many other stores will still have the BTTF set after lego has sold out.

    If you ant it, it still might be the time to get it, but more because Ghostbusters is coming rather than the Mars Rover disappeared quickly due to low stock.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,456
    CCC said:

    Ghostbusters is coming

    I'm in the middle of reading Game of Thrones so this phrase stuck out like a sore thumb to me...the words of house CCC perhaps :-P

    I think that the BttF Delorean (along with the Ghostbusters Ecto-1) could do good as more of a long term, prices likely to spike around significant anniversaries - which with Ghostbusters will obviously mean a long wait. If the Delorean disappears before the end of the year, next year might get some interest because of the 2015 references in the film, but I wouldn't bank much on it, as mentioned above, the fact that other retailers have it means its likely to linger at retail across the next year.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    Although maybe they will do what they did with the film in the UK, delay the release until just before Xmas. I remember as a young teen the wait to be able to see the film, the music was out while we were at school before the summer holidays and the film didn't appear in cinemas until the christmas holidays ... such a long wait.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    cheshirecat said:

    Saw this in today's paper and for some reason it brought a certain bricksetter to mind...

    http://metro.co.uk/2014/05/16/were-pony-entrapped-meet-the-adult-men-who-make-up-my-little-ponys-unlikeliest-fan-base-4729624/

    Ahhhh. You tried to sneak that past the goalie ;)

    For the record, I like to smell my daughter's ponies. I don't collect any for myself :)

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    dougts said:

    So basically LEGO is going to do more limited run items, ensuring massive stockpiling and quick jumps in aftermarket pricing, all the while complaint about those darn nasty profiteering resellers

    Stop it! You're applying logic! :-)

    (to self) "Must make sense of LEGOS conflicting signals." Now my head hurts!

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Pitfall69 said:

    For the record, I like to smell my daughter's ponies. I don't collect any for myself :)

    ...

    I'm not so sure that makes it better.
    jasorbobabricks
  • scrumperscrumper UKMember Posts: 317
    y2josh said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    For the record, I like to smell my daughter's ponies. I don't collect any for myself :)

    ...

    I'm not so sure that makes it better.
    It makes it a lot worse if you're a cockney!
    jamiest
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2014
    Anyone else notice that the aftermarket price (in fact, the price in general) of CMF boxes has had a significant uptick across the board...at least on eBay? It used to be that a patient person could pick up a box for roughly $150; now that price is in the $225 range...even for the Series that didn't do so well. It seems like it all started with Series 10 and the hunt for Mr. Gold. With the RRP for Simpsons at $3.99, I think those that picked up boxes should do pretty well.
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69bobabricks
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^Possibly with Series 10, but I think The Lego Movie and The Simpsons have had a lot to do with the "uptick" .
    madforLEGO
  • jondesouzaCEjondesouzaCE UKMember Posts: 241
    Have people had any further thoughts on how Ewok Village will do in the after market? I was wondering if the new Sandcrawler might have an impact on prices.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Ewok Village is here to stay... no point even wondering how it will do in the aftermarket for a few years.
    FollowsClosely
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    Yeah, I wouldn't think about investing in Ewok village until 2017/8 at the earliest
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Possibly with Series 10, but I think The Lego Movie and The Simpsons have had a lot to do with the "uptick".

    Actually, I remember perusing the Series 10 boxes last fall, and they never dropped below $180 on eBay (and that was only from a couple sellers for very brief periods). I guess everyone thought their odds of getting a Mr. Gold were improved by getting the entire box. As Series 10 approached EOL, the prices went up from there.

    The Lego Movies sets have done well due to the extra advertising the movie has given this particular series. That and the short time they were available, which I still think is odd. Perhaps TLG was trying to force people to purchase more box sets to get the minifigs.

    The Simpsons boxes are more expensive because of the 33% increase in the RRP. So what was a $150 per box is now north of $200.

    As has been said before on another thread, increasing the non-licensed CMFs to $3.99 is going to hurt the sales of CMFs. Basically, TLG plan is to ask for $0.75-$1.00 per plastic piece...which is insane. If this does end up being the case, then the individual CMF sealed packets should rise as well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^That very well is possible, but I was able to buy a Series 10 box for the same price I bought my Series 9. It wasn't until TLM came out that i had to pay more for a box of TLM CMF's.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Now that they are making licensed series, the interest in the "original" figs will be less and less. Demand will increase for more licensed ones. There's a good chance, I think, that Series 12 in the fall may be the last "original" one. I'll be glad when they are finished with them at this point. Time to move on.
    cheshirecat
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^That very well is possible, but I was able to buy a Series 10 box for the same price I bought my Series 9. It wasn't until TLM came out that i had to pay more for a box of TLM CMF's.

    Out of curiosity, did you get those sets from eBay or some other outlet? Once upon a time it was possible to order boxes of CMFs from Amazon France for a much lower price. Unfortunately, Amazon France put the hiatus on that. Of course you could never know what condition it would arrive in. I once had the freight train set arrive in a box from France that appeared to be sawed completely in half (bricks and all) and then taped back up.
    prevere said:

    Now that they are making licensed series, the interest in the "original" figs will be less and less. Demand will increase for more licensed ones. There's a good chance, I think, that Series 12 in the fall may be the last "original" one. I'll be glad when they are finished with them at this point. Time to move on.

    There's more profit in it for TLG if they sell the unlicensed sets...especially if they keep them at $3.99. But I can't disagree with your sentiment. If they do continue the CMFs, I plan to be much more choosey and certainly won't be trying to get complete sets, much less a box.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,275
    Farmer_John said:

    I once had the freight train set arrive in a box from France that appeared to be sawed completely in half (bricks and all) and then taped back up.

    Well the LEGO boxes do say "do not cut with razor" so the guy at the warehouse must have decided to use a chainsaw instead. Because "the box didn't say not to".


  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2014
    graphite said:

    Well the LEGO boxes do say "do not cut with razor" so the guy at the warehouse must have decided to use a chainsaw instead. Because "the box didn't say not to".

    It's all USPS (and their evil French counterpart, the mauvais USPS). I had a Minecraft set arrive from TLG [email protected] that looked like someone parked a truck on it. Seriously...here's the pic.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,456
    ^seriously do not get me started on courier companies...that is one industry that I think needs to completely hit the reset button on e way they work!
    Matthewbobabricks
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    prevere said:

    Now that they are making licensed series, the interest in the "original" figs will be less and less. Demand will increase for more licensed ones. There's a good chance, I think, that Series 12 in the fall may be the last "original" one. I'll be glad when they are finished with them at this point. Time to move on.

    The strange thing is, both TLM to a little extent and The Simpsons to a greater extent seem to be getting people into collecting non-licensed CMF. I use swapfig.com a fair bit, and I get a fair few trade requests from new users that have only The Simpsons available for swapping that want minifigs from earlier non-licensed series.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    The other problem for collectors is that if you're starting at Series 12, going backwards to catch up is very expensive. Especially if you're just a kid. By way of licensed series, they each are their own collection of 16 and that is easier to handle.

    Still shocked to see "official" Mr. Golds going for the same amount roughly they did after the price stabilized a month after Series 10's release.
  • PraiasPraias Member Posts: 51
    And where are all the other Mr Golds if you hardly ever see series 10 in shops any more but the site still says that less than half have been found?

    Even accounting for people that didn't register theirs, surely there must still be some around?

    We never opened ours yet nor told the kids yet. My eldest is quite the collector, but I know my middle one would also love one so it isn't fair to give to one of them. For now it will be kept as our secret. If we never find another one (which likely we won't) then it will remain a secret until the kids are grown up.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^I would use it to help pay for college for one of them. In the big scheme of things, what is more important: a Lego set or the ability to purchase Lego sets?
  • PraiasPraias Member Posts: 51
    ^Nah, at the moment we are not interested in selling.

    It's a shame that I cannot give both kids one, but I'm also happy in keeping it in the family collection. I just won't tell them yet because I don't see the need for any drama.

    If the kids were the only ones interested in Lego, I could see the advantages in selling, but we also have our own personal collections.

    If we were so low on cash that their education was at risk, I wouldn't hesitate, I would sell anything I could not to jeopardize their education. They are still young but I do hope that we won't ever be in that position though.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yep...I get it.

    A fellow collector that lives nearby (and also frequents this blog) found one at a local pharmacy store. He opened it, took a picture to prove he had found one, then promptly sold it. I was a little surprised, but then again I know that sometimes marital strife can be mitigated by using a hobby to fund itself. That and the temptation of making $700-$800 from a little bag containing a few pieces of plastic. :-)

    On a related note, I find it a bit dishonest that people selling individual Series 10 bags on eBay always put "possible Mr. Gold?" in the listing title...as if the seller hasn't already frisked every single one out of the box. But I would expect there are a lot of unopened Series 10 boxes out there that do contain a Mr. Gold.
    madforLEGO
  • LostInTranslationLostInTranslation UKMember Posts: 5,572
    ^When I bought my box of Simpsons figures from WHSmith the guy serving me remembered me from buying a box of series 10 and told me they still had a couple of boxes of Series 10 up in their storeroom. I think he said they were still sealed too. Could be a Mr Gold lurking up there! :-)
    jasorrancorbait
  • luckie_reubsluckie_reubs Member Posts: 299
    Farmer_John said:

    ^Yep...I get it.

    A fellow collector that lives nearby (and also frequents this blog) found one at a local pharmacy store. He opened it, took a picture to prove he had found one, then promptly sold it. I was a little surprised, but then again I know that sometimes marital strife can be mitigated by using a hobby to fund itself. That and the temptation of making $700-$800 from a little bag containing a few pieces of plastic. :-)

    On a related note, I find it a bit dishonest that people selling individual Series 10 bags on eBay always put "possible Mr. Gold?" in the listing title...as if the seller hasn't already frisked every single one out of the box. But I would expect there are a lot of unopened Series 10 boxes out there that do contain a Mr. Gold.

    There's a pharmacy here that has four Series 10 bags left, but they're $4/pop. I guess I could feel them up; would be great to pick up a Mr. Gold. That would get me that Arkham Asylum I'm longing for plus get a few rooms of the house painted!
    FollowsCloselyFarmer_John
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    #21104 is doing very well on ebay UK, cheapest now is £75. I guess £99 is possible by Xmas.
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    edited May 2014
    JamesJT said:

    #21104 is doing very well on ebay UK, cheapest now is £75. I guess £99 is possible by Xmas.

    Or spend another £5425 and get the whole set.

    http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lego-CUUSOO-Rare-Job-Lot-Sets-21100-21101-21102-21103-21104-Shinkai-Minecraft-/141276134310?pt=UK_Construction_Toys_Kits&hash=item20e4b6bba6



  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^that seller appears a lot in the "Rediculus ebay Auctions" thread.

    I've had a few messages from her to my ebay account. I think the prices are so high because she wants to trade.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    SSD back instock on [email protected] North America.




    FollowsClosely
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    Hope this is a good place to ask, but is trading away my used Winter Village Toy Shop for a Used Emerald Night a good deal? I bought the Toy Shop in hopes of collecting the other sets, but they were far too expensive for what you get. So I just stopped.

    I already have an EN, but another would be cool. Thoughts? opinions?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The Toy Shop and Emerald Night are apples and oranges. It's really a matter of taste, although the Emerald Night was a bit more expensive than the Toy Shop last time I looked. Is the Toy Shop the only WV set you have?
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Thoughts on 79008 & 79003 they were purchased during the Toys R Us UK clear out... Deciding whether to hold for the long term, shift quickly or part out...
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited May 2014
    ^ It would help a little if you put a # in front of those models so that people can link to the set details. It would help a lot if you also included the model name in your post.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Wat ya mean?!!! Everyone knows 79008 is uh... errr.... hummmm..... some LEGO set. :-)
    bobabricks
  • msandersmsanders Member Posts: 1,017
    #79008 lord of the rings pirate ship ambush
    #79003 hobbit unexpected gathering bag end

    I love the Hobbit house - it is one the only small(er) sets on display in our house.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    doriansdad said:

    SSD back instock on [email protected] North America.

    ...and still going for the low, low price of $399.99.
    BumblepantsFollowsCloselyTheLoneTensor
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I posted the update about the SSD as it had been out of stock at all retailers in the USA and there was some conjecture regarding EOL of this set in the USA. I will post when Amazon and Walmart restock as it may help some fellow resellers.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I think the Bag End set will do well long term. It's the best of The Hobbit and LOTR sets. Could be had for a good price. Has a lot of minifigs. It's a great display model. A house. A playable set. It has a lot going for it. Now, will it go double or triple RRP a year after it retires? I have no idea.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited May 2014
    ^ I think it's a safer bet than most that it will, because even though Peter Jackson has stretched, CGI'd and elf-ized the living daylights out of a beloved story, that beloved story will remain...beloved.
    y2josh
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    CoraHarrison said:

    Thoughts on 79008 & 79003 they were purchased during the Toys R Us UK clear out... Deciding whether to hold for the long term, shift quickly or part out...

    Those are long term holders rather than short term shifters. Many people that wanted them got them. I can't see them going for RRP for a while in the UK.
    FollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    Maybe, but didn't we say the same about the FB, that those who wanted them already have them?
    Pitfall69
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,456
    I think CCC was talking more specifically to UK market as we recently had a lot of major sellers with all the hobbit/LOTR sets at half price, bit of a flood to the market.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    Mine have all gone in the loft for storage for 2 years (Retirement + 1 Year)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    JamesJT said:

    prevere said:

    ^How about another Technic Shuttle with fiber optics? That said, how about ANYTHING with fiber optics...

    I bet there's a NASA shuttle in #42025 somewhere, I'll let you know if I find it.

    Found it
    http://s266.photobucket.com/user/JamesJT_bucket/media/Shuttle3.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0

    http://s266.photobucket.com/user/JamesJT_bucket/media/Shuttle1.jpg.html?sort=3&o=2

    rocaoMathBuilder
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    edited May 2014
    Anyone have any thoughts on the minecraft sets? #21102 #21105 #21106?

    With 'The End' #21107 coming out shortly, does this mean the end for these sets/line too?
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