Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

dougts

tamamahm said:

piratemania7 said:

tamamahm said:

That is great Pitfall, and there is nothing that says that girls do not like fire trucks, but yes, there are many that do not have interest there. (Even my son has no interest there. ;-) ) If there was a strong interest with girls and their fire trucks, we would not have a need of Lego Friends. As has been discussed many times on this board Lego Friends has gone after those that are not already interested in Lego and/or those that have not found the themes of interest in the Lego line because Lego does focus many of their lines on more traditional areas of boy interests. Great. They attracted a new demographic. The key now is maintaining, renewing and building that demographic, or you lose it.

I have to be blunt and say I don't know what you mean by this? I think TLG did a fantastic job in creating a Friends theme. I don't see it as their responsibility to "maintain" as though it's some crop. I think it's unfair to assume everything has to go in another direction all together when this general business model has functioned just fine for decades.

Id say overall I am incredibly "middle of the road" I do and enjoy just as many manly fixing up things around the house type stuff as I do sitting and reading a book and enjoying a cup of tea. I think of gender especially when it comes to stereotypes, very little if at all.

Unfortunately I don't see where any of this is coming from and I think people need to have a larger perspective rather than one narrow thought process.

I really do not see how stating basic business is being narrow.
I am not sure I can be more plain with what I am saying.
Lego saw a segment where they were not getting sales. They took step 1 in broadening and achieving a new demographic. Girls make up ~50% of the kids out there, and if they can even attain a portion of that they really grow their bottom line.

A company, though, can not just call it done, or they lose that demographic after the initial luster is over. Yes, it IS the responsibility of a company to maintain. That is basic business 101. Why do you think we have updates to City? Why does Lego put out new police sets? Why does Lego create new licenses, and phases out old ones?
It's because kids are fickle, and when the next new items comes, they hop on board.

This is no different than any other toy company or line. Barbie, American Girl, Imaginext, Playmobil, Hotwheels, etc. They are constantly updating, revamping to maintain their market.
Toy companies, though, have to maintain a balance between 'classic' and new. Thus, we see Lego consistently with police/city, and yet yearly new items in that line... Arctic, Coast Guard, Mining.

If Lego wants to maintain or expand the growth they achieved via Lego Friends, they have to do the same that they have done in their other lines. Lego Friends was great, and probably one of the more creative of the lines they have going, but there was a focus on buildings/horses. In my area, I was beginning to see interest fade. As cool as a juice bar was... the interest was lower here, but interest in a Cruise ship was high, because it was new and different.
The core of shops/horses, though, is important, in that in maintains your core and upcoming kids, but you have to revamp....just like the City line has to revamp.

You either do that in a line, like City has done, by creating subthemes, and/or you do that by creating additional lines. Jungle is definitely a subtheme and should shake things up a bit. New, different, and they interconnect to make a larger set.

The most successful toy lines, though, do both. They create subthemes, but completely new lines as well.

I guess I would say in my view, Friends is doing exactly what you are asking for. You compare it to CITY, and I think that is an apt comparison. And I have seen with friends exactly the same type of scenarios that we see with CITY. Let's look at the 6 waves thus far:
1. Shops/Car/Vignette to Intro each girl, plus the House
2. Summer locales (camping, beachside, and Horse/stable camp)
3. more character vignettes, shops, city pool
4. high school, dolphin cruiser
5. beach house, ranch, shop, variety of small sets - beach, farm, ice cream
6. Jungle, camping, mall

they seemed to have moved a lot (but not all) of the animal focus to the series packs, while keeping the various shops and dollhouses coming pretty regularly. In between, they have offered a pretty large variety of settings outside Heartlake City: Camping, Stables, Beaches, Pool, School, Cruise Ship, and now the Jungle.

That is certainly at least as much variety, if not moreso, than we have seen over city in the same time frame, is it not?

dougts

tamamahm said:

Maybe I'm mistaken, but I very much see Friends as analogous to City.
Maybe it is different in other demographics, but around here, City is often considered for 'younger' kids. Kids that are interested in Lego, but aren't necessarily old enough to have strong interest in themes.

I both agree and disagree with this. It's analogous in as far as the general setting (real life, city/towns along with wide range of content coverage) but it's quite different in as far as building techniques and detail. Friends is quite a bit more advanced than CITY in this regard. We see a lot more advanced techniques and a lot more attention to detail, as well as topics/themes that appeal to an older demographic of girl in general. Therefore, kids should "age out" of Friends at a later age than they do CITY, and perhaps at an age that is in line with aging out of Ninjago or Star Wars.

tamamahm said:

Finally, with Friends, I think they have something. To me the question is how big, how fast can they grow, but more importantly how big can that market be? Can it be as large as the current 'boy market'? They have to have the right speed of growth or it comes collapsing down. Grow to slow, and they lose momentum. Grow to fast, and things crash down.

I guess I would say I think they are growing this at the right pace. I'm also honestly struggling to figure out what other new minidoll theme they could put out that would be popular enough to sell well, but wouldn't be overly redundant to what they are already doing with Friends. We know that anything IP focused would have to be based on a current movie or movie franchise. They haven't shown to do IP as themes other than that way (excluding SW of course, which is an entirely different animal)

BrickDancer

@tamamahm‌ And in this fair and egalitarian age, why aren't you encouraging your girls (and boy) to embrace themes that are not wholly pink and girly with accompanying girl figs? Shouldn't you be encouraging children to feel comfortable with all matters regardless of gender or gender-targeted themes?

If before Friends & Princesses arrived on the scene, TLG was doing business with a demographic breakdown of 80% boys vs. 20% girls, then it would be logical that 80% of their offerings would appeal to the boy segment. And just because they are seeing a growth in the girl segment, that doesn't mean they should all of a sudden capitulate and throttle it to be 50%/50% offerings over a period of 1 or 2 years. Further to this point is that we do not have the data to show what the predicted mix would be if the market for girls was fully achieved. Perhaps that even when fully saturated and peaked, the mix would be 65% boy vs 35% girl, as building toys may not be as fun or attractive to the girls as to boys on the whole. Thus if TLG got overly excited for their new growth segment, that they can over produce and expand thus creating a loss and potential collapse of the segment or business even.

You bring up Barbie, American Girl, etc., as a comparison point. But wouldn't you agree that more than 65% of their offerings are geared towards girls? What would you think of a guy complaining on the Barbie board about not having enough male dolls released?

jcb193

It's a shame that almost every single great moment in history involves mainly an assassination or great military battle. Would love to see a "great moments in history" Lego series.

Think of all the new demographics. Everyone from elementary school teachers to military model collectors.

Pitfall69

https://www.theglobalcmo.com/lego-global-marketing/

This was a decent article to read. I do remember when TLG got a lot of slack for coming out with the Friends theme.

Even though girls may roughly make up 50% of the market, it would be foolish to try and target all of them because there may only be 15% of those girls interested in Lego. It is no different than any product being marketed to the public. Based on statistical information, marketing companies put most of their money into targeting their biggest demographic.

Pitfall69

jcb193 said:

It's a shame that almost every single great moment in history involves mainly an assassination or great military battle. Would love to see a "great moments in history" Lego series.

Think of all the new demographics. Everyone from elementary school teachers to military model collectors.

I think TLG has made tremendous progress with incorporating Historical Figures. The Lego Movie had Abraham Lincoln and William Shakespeare.

The CMF line has introduced many historical minifigures. Why does TLG need to come out with historical themes when you can pretty much make your own historical diorama? The only thing that is lacking are modern military themes. The closest that we have gotten to that was Indiana Jones.

prevere

The architecture series does have some historical value to it. Certainly, they could introduce something through DACTA/Educational line for teachers to purchase as well.

graphite

^ I always hoped they would do something like #9348 and #9349 but with more historical figures. Could definitely do it themed for teachers. US history (ben franklin, washington, MLK, lincoln, columbus etc), World history (napolean, alexander, cleopatra, ramses etc), people of science (tesla, newton, copernicus, aristotle etc) although they've done a few of them I think done like those other two sets with a little scene or props related to each would be great. I'd also be happy if they threw some more in with the future CMFs but at a rate greater than one obvious notable figure per series.

CCC

tamamahm said:

I really do not see how stating basic business is being narrow.
I am not sure I can be more plain with what I am saying.
Lego saw a segment where they were not getting sales. They took step 1 in broadening and achieving a new demographic. Girls make up ~50% of the kids out there, and if they can even attain a portion of that they really grow their bottom line.

They did see a gap and they could fill it with something they thought would sell, and they were right. Little girls like Friends, and they sell well.

tamamahm said:

A company, though, can not just call it done, or they lose that demographic after the initial luster is over. Yes, it IS the responsibility of a company to maintain. That is basic business 101. Why do you think we have updates to City? Why does Lego put out new police sets? Why does Lego create new licenses, and phases out old ones?
It's because kids are fickle, and when the next new items comes, they hop on board.

City attracts a rage of ages, as they go from simple sets to more complex. Friends to me does the same.

tamamahm said:

This is no different than any other toy company or line. Barbie, American Girl, Imaginext, Playmobil, Hotwheels, etc. They are constantly updating, revamping to maintain their market.
Toy companies, though, have to maintain a balance between 'classic' and new. Thus, we see Lego consistently with police/city, and yet yearly new items in that line... Arctic, Coast Guard, Mining.

.....

You either do that in a line, like City has done, by creating subthemes, and/or you do that by creating additional lines. Jungle is definitely a subtheme and should shake things up a bit. New, different, and they interconnect to make a larger set.

The most successful toy lines, though, do both. They create subthemes, but completely new lines as well.

Lego is doing subthemes for Friends, as you say, and these seem to be good additions. No doubt they will rehash older subthemes too, just like in City.

The big question that is not answered is what should lego put out to attract girls that think they are too old for Friends (what age is this? 10-16?). There is a gap there (if you ignore the creator type sets) but can it really be filled? What do girls of this age group want? Looking at friends' kids of that age, they seem to want make-up, art-stuff / craft / beads, music, clothes, computer games. How should lego appeal to those girls? Brick-built make-up sets?

Does Mattel (Barbie) and Playmobil make toys that sell well to that age demographic?

I'm hoping my daughter continues to play with lego when she is that age and sticks with some of the "boys toys" - the more engineering type sets.

binaryeye

tamamahm said:

Lego specifically put out Friends to resolve an issue. The Issue is that the were missing the girl demographic.

That's an assumption. Based on what LEGO has done with Friends, I don't think the issue was missing out on the "girl" demographic. It seems more likely that LEGO realized there was an age range of girls that offered an opportunity for increased profit, and created a theme to cater to that age range.

tamamahm said:

They put out Friends. That is great. The reality, though, is that those girls will eventually either age out of Friends, and Without a next theme to move into, Lego will lose the group they fought hard to gain.

Again, you're making an assumption here that LEGO wants to cater to teenage girls. Perhaps their market research has indicated that this demographic would not be profitable for them.

Pitfall69

Santa's Workshop is right up your alley @tamamahm‌ :)

flyingpig

Lego has a sales winner in friends and followed up with Disney princesses, which is also making a killing. Let's wait and see what the come out with next year before sounding the alarm.

littlepuppi

What are peoples thoughts on kingdoms joust? Worth tucking a couple away?

tamamahm

binaryeye said:

tamamahm said:

Lego specifically put out Friends to resolve an issue. The Issue is that the were missing the girl demographic.

That's an assumption. Based on what LEGO has done with Friends, I don't think the issue was missing out on the "girl" demographic. It seems more likely that LEGO realized there was an age range of girls that offered an opportunity for increased profit, and created a theme to cater to that age range.

tamamahm said:

They put out Friends. That is great. The reality, though, is that those girls will eventually either age out of Friends, and Without a next theme to move into, Lego will lose the group they fought hard to gain.

Again, you're making an assumption here that LEGO wants to cater to teenage girls. Perhaps their market research has indicated that this demographic would not be profitable for them.

Binaryeye, the first comment we are in complete agreement actually. I wasn't thinking they were just plugging a hole out of the kindness of their little Lego hearts. LOL! This is only about profit. I personally think someone in Lego realized that there is an upper limit on how much a family will spend on an individual for Lego, so they first diversified into 'toys' and tv show, which means accessories, and online games... They will saturate that as well, so the next obvious place to grow profit is to tackle the 'female' segment. This is all about growing their business and maximizing profit, and with STEM being such a huge thing right now, they are able to capitalize on that as well with parents.


On the second, I think you were assuming I was talking teen. I'm really referring more to the preteen age, but yes, as CCC pointed out, and something I personally have considered as well is what is the breakpoint for girls. Do they simply have no interest after a certain age, does it hit earlier than boys, do they not have the right sets out? I do think there are questions that need to be asked and answered.

CCC said:

I'm hoping my daughter continues to play with lego when she is that age and sticks with some of the "boys toys" - the more engineering type sets.

If she is interested now in science/engineeering items, that often will continue, even if not always via Lego. My general experience, though, is that often science/engineering toys and items are geared towards boys in subtle and not-so subtle ways, which can impact interest. I will say the engineering program that our elementary school uses does try to remove some typical gender stereotypes I have encountered in the past. It is very fascinating seeing the kids, take very different approaches, and what topics they choose based on interest, and generally I do see a large gender difference in what interest areas they have chosen.

Pitfall69 said:

Santa's Workshop is right up your alley @tamamahm‌ :)

Yes, the Winter sets we use as family builds.
I actually think my 7 year old will love the reindeer, while I am not a fan of how they are built. I'm a bit neutral at the moment, and am waiting to see the inside and price tag before formulating a final opinion. I already created a grotto, I picked up extra elves, have my Mr. and Ms. Claus, and I am not sure this really works as a Santa Workshop for me, so I am waiting for more info before formulating an opinion.
I'm also not so patiently waiting for any word on the Minecraft sets.

Farmer_John

Shib said:

I can see hunger games working in terms of what they could do, but not sure how it fits with TLGs often inconsistent 'family friendly' guidelines.

Oh come on...kids being forced to kill kids wouldn't work as a Lego theme? [sarcasm]

I can image some kid playing with their newly purchased TLG Hunger Games play set and deciding to try it for real. At least that seems to be the world we now live in...

tamamahm

Yes, they can't do Hunger Games, but the reality is that Hunger Games was a HUGE trend, and kids at school were playing games related to Hunger Games. When themes hit school yards, they are 'big'. Dystopian as a genre is huge right now.

I do not see any violence happening anymore than violence we have happen with any of the other Lego Themes they have with weapons. Yes, it is kid against kid, but kids very much see this as 'fantasy play' like many of the other Lego genres and not real world play.

As said, though... not happening.

prevere

They should do Starving Games minifigs instead.

In this Hunger Games spoof, Kantmiss Evershot must fight for her life in the 75th annual Starving Games, where she could also win an old ham, a coupon for a foot-long sub, and a partially eaten pickle.

pharmjod

Or the ever oddly present sausage or carrot.

doriansdad

Just a heads up beginning 5/15 Paypal will no longer require signature confirmation on transactions less than $750 to be eligible for seller protection, just delivery confirmation (previously $250+ required signature confirmation).

y2josh

^That seems like a very bad idea...

littlepuppi

Any thoughts on kingdoms joust? Ive bought 3.. One for me and 2 for future sale, was this sensible? Paid 70 UKP each inc delivery...

doriansdad

Starting today no more INR's for your international sales <$750. Half-priced boxes at staples until 5/17. Good times :)

CCC

What do you need for that? Just proof of posting, or still proof of delivery just without a signature?

There is an interesting new line in the UK agreement ...

Open a Dispute within 45 days (or, if you are claiming as a registered UK resident user of PayPal, 180 days)

so it looks like it will be possible to make a claim for non-delivery up to 6 months later, instead of 1.5 months.

doriansdad

Just delivery confirmation. Yep UK is already added to my do not ship to list unless they want to wire the money or send an envelope stuffed with cash. 90 days for ebay this holiday season is barely tolerable, 180 days is insanity.

Here is the update for those folks interested:

https://www.paypal.com/webapps/mpp/ua/upcoming-policies-full

CCC

It's strange isn't it. We live in a global market, but soon we'll only sell to and buy from our next-door neighbours. :-)

doriansdad

Well other payment services are gaining ground fast and ebay is becoming less relevant as time and ridiculous policies pass. Social selling is the future.....won;t be an issue then.

Milne44

I was thinking of buying a few to stash any too , I thanks the joust will do well EOL

BrickDancer

If you look at Joust's stablemates, King's Castle, MMV, MVR, etc; none have performed that well so far being 1-2 years past EOL even. That theme doesn't appreciate much or as fast in comparison to others.

cloaked7

doriansdad said:

Well other payment services are gaining ground fast and ebay is becoming less relevant as time and ridiculous policies pass. Social selling is the future.....won;t be an issue then.

The path that eBay has taken is unfortunate. In some ways I guess that's what Wall Street does to a company. (focus on profits) They are so different from the eBay I knew and sold on 15+ years ago it seems like a totally different company. Not all that has changed is bad. Shipping is a lot easier. Using the website, tracking auctions, adding photos, creating an auction... all easier. But, unfortunately their new rules, mandated policies, and higher fees outweigh all the good stuff.

And, there are a lot (I mean a lot) of people that have never used eBay, and have no desire too. People that use, and love, Amazon. Try as they may eBay will never be on the same level as Amazon. But, that sure appears what they want to be.

TheLoneTensor

cloaked7 said:

doriansdad said:

Well other payment services are gaining ground fast and ebay is becoming less relevant as time and ridiculous policies pass. Social selling is the future.....won;t be an issue then.

The path that eBay has taken is unfortunate. In some ways I guess that's what Wall Street does to a company. (focus on profits) They are so different from the eBay I knew and sold on 15+ years ago it seems like a totally different company. Not all that has changed is bad. Shipping is a lot easier. Using the website, tracking auctions, adding photos, creating an auction... all easier. But, unfortunately their new rules, mandated policies, and higher fees outweigh all the good stuff.

Sounds like another company I know. I can't think of it right now though, it's on the tip of my tongue...thinking, thinking...

Pitfall69

cloaked7 said:

And, there are a lot (I mean a lot) of people that have never used eBay, and have no desire too. People that use, and love, Amazon. Try as they may eBay will never be on the same level as Amazon. But, that sure appears what they want to be.

First, you need to be remotely close to Amazon before you start acting like you are Amazon.

doriansdad

Well I believe the future of peer to peer selling is neither ebay or amazon. Picture a global site, heavily trafficked, filled with all sorts of storefronts and employing a useful search engine (google I am looking at you). Shop owners and buyers interact via chat and payment is made via bitcoin or whatever crypto currency becomes mainstream. No house take, no paypal or other payment processor and their ridiculous mandates, just a true global marketplace with no interference. Astonishingly close to present day Alibaba but I believe it will become global and the future of e-commerce. Ebay will go the way of AOL and Kodak. Amazon will always have a place.

cloaked7

^ We can only wish. Of course, knowing Google (well, I don't personally know Google, and am not at genius level - as most of their employees) they are already looking into something like that.

Chrome is a classic example of what Google can do. It is now, and has been for years, so superior to I.E. it isn't even funny. Remember when I.E. was ubiquitous? And, had what looked like a insurmountable lead in browser technology. Along came Chrome and quickly ate I.E.'s lunch. Now I.E. will never catch up. (Canvas is doing the same thing to Flash. Guess which browser fully supports Canvas. And, guess which one doesn't?)

graphite

^ In my opinion at least, Firefox blew IE out of the water like 5 or 6 years before Chrome came. But Chrome definitely is rocking the browser war right now.

dougts

sure, but firefox never had the platform to enable themselves to gain market share. Chrome did, via Google's vast userbase.

jcb193

How do you guys feel about long term investing in the branded LEGO CUUSOO sets. Like Back to the Future? When these get cheap $25-$30, it seems worth loading up on. It's a nice set. Great packaging. Not a huge box. Doesn't seem hard to imagine it going to $50-$100. What are the risks? That they could come out with new BTTF sets or that a once and done is hard to build demand for?

graphite

dougts said:

sure, but firefox never had the platform to enable themselves to gain market share. Chrome did, via Google's vast userbase.

Firefox peaked a little after Chrome came out at about 48% according to W3Schools logs and Chrome is currently at 58% 6 years after coming out. For Google's "vast" userbase I'd say Firefox did extremely well and isn't really a significant amount different in terms of market share.

littlepuppi

Cheers for the opinoins on joust guys...

cloaked7

jcb193 said:

How do you guys feel about long term investing in the branded LEGO CUUSOO sets. Like Back to the Future? When these get cheap $25-$30, it seems worth loading up on. It's a nice set. Great packaging. Not a huge box. Doesn't seem hard to imagine it going to $50-$100. What are the risks? That they could come out with new BTTF sets or that a once and done is hard to build demand for?

Just my humble opinion, but I think all of the CUUSOO sets will do well long term.

littlepuppi

will the back to the future be around much longer?

BrickDancer

^After what happened with the Rover and their supposed rationale as to why, I wouldn't take any chances on the BttF set if you want it for yourself.

cloaked7

^ @BrickDancer What happened and what was the reason given? Is the rover officially not coming back? (I read some things, but never got the whole story.)

BrickDancer

I spoke with a CS who relayed the memo received says they want to go back to what Cuusoo was originally meant to be which was a limited release offering. Thus the incredibly short production run for the Rover: released Jan. 10 and sold out in the US by Mar. 27.

There was also the mention by perijove from the very beginning that TLG possibly meant for a 10,000 run only to begin with.

This case on the Rover is a real puzzler for what may or may not happen for the Delorean. Released before the it in Aug. 2013.

lordzarak

Another thing to consider regarding Cuusoo is the popularity of the licensed sets. The Minecraft and BTTF sets have consistently been in Amazon's top 20 selling Lego sets. Eventually, these sets will retire, but the demand will likely remain. Especially with a Minecraft movie on the way. I think Ghostbusters will repeat the Minecraft/BTTF availability, but the Exo Suit may be as rare as the Mars Rover.

ericb

BrickDancer said:

There was also the mention by perijove from the very beginning that TLG possibly meant for a 10,000 run only to begin with.

In this case, LEGO should have offered backers the chance to buy the Rover first.

It makes no sense to set a low production run on a set which owes its existence to fan popularity.

mathew

If you want the Rover, the Discovery centers may still have stock. My parents went to the Kennedy Space Center in Florida and found it in stock, although marked up to $50. It's a fun model and a shame if it's truly discontinued after such a short run.

mathew

I agree that the Exo Suit will be something to buy immediately. I can see Ghostbusters sticking around for awhile.

Bumblepants

^Yeah I think the quick exit of the Rover is going to cause a lot of 12:01AM Exosuit ordering. Hopefully all of us who want one will be able to get it.

dougts

So basically LEGO is going to do more limited run items, ensuring massive stockpiling and quick jumps in aftermarket pricing, all the while complaint about those darn nasty profiteering resellers

ericb

I would like to see the Rover re-released as a LEGO Ideas set.