Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

mathew

Pitfall69 said:

College tuition is sky high and keeps rising. People are being forced to buy health insurance and may not have the disposable income anymore.

Student loans are a huge economic problem that nobody is talking about. College degrees are now required for jobs that pay as little as $10 per hour and have no benefits. How can someone live off of $10 an hour, raise a family and pay for health insurance and student loans out of pocket? They can't. Our government cares more about corporate welfare and insurance taxation (the real reason for Obamacare). They are killing the middle class and laughing all the way to the bank.

FollowsClosely

Pitfall69 said:

What is the next big set to retire? Grand Emporium?

If you have cash to burn 9398 Rock Crawler is an interesting option. Well. I haven't bought any, so I guess I don't even believe myself.

Pitfall69

I'm not a huge reseller. Most of my sales come from used sets that I have collected over the years through thrift stores and garage sales. I try not to buy anything I wouldn't want to keep myself and Technic is one of those themes that I don't care for.

CCC

monkeyhanger said:

There is value in the loose brick, I don't think the bricklink market for loose bricks is under threat, except for that niche market for rare parts on a bricklinked set that has become way too expensive in the aftermarket. Who's going to bricklink a UCS MF and create demand for £80 pairs of LBG rigging when TLG release another, unless the redo is massively inferior to the original? But for your other parts that are "normally priced", will we really see a dip in price commanded?

There are a number of other "rare" parts that will drop in price as lego reuse them in common sets.You only need to look at things like the green bionicle tail (was 50p, now 10p as it was in Gorzan's vines set), trans-yellow 2x2 brick (80p down to 10p, as in Batman game), various arch bricks 1/4 -1/2 of their value a year ago, etc

monkeyhanger

ColoradoBricks said:

^ Bricklink will only invoice you if you own more than $10 in fees for non US seller ($5 for US sellers)

Mystery solved, thanks. Conscience eased. funny way of doing business.

TheLoneTensor

FollowsClosely said:

Pitfall69 said:

What is the next big set to retire? Grand Emporium?

If you have cash to burn 9398 Rock Crawler is an interesting option. Well. I haven't bought any, so I guess I don't even believe myself.

Especially because you can pick it up from TRU for about $160 right now.

JamesJT

^@stevemack will already have 100+ #9398, he'll list them all at once and keep the price down in UK for years. Also, it will never be worth as much as #41999 and the price of those is falling all the time.

Pitfall69

^Whoa, I sense a disturbance in the force.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

What is the next big set to retire? Grand Emporium?

Likely, I see GE going later this year. Expect it gone between Thanksgiving and Christmas

TheLoneTensor said:

FollowsClosely said:

Pitfall69 said:

What is the next big set to retire? Grand Emporium?

If you have cash to burn 9398 Rock Crawler is an interesting option. Well. I haven't bought any, so I guess I don't even believe myself.

Especially because you can pick it up from TRU for about $160 right now.

Amazon is also matching so it is a good deal. But having gotten a couple of #41999 I do not see the crawler really exploding.. maybe that means it will..lol
Plus if they are willing to drop it to 20%, then Why not 25% at some point?

Pitfall69

I want to go back to the Fire Brigade for a moment. @LegoFanTexas said he sold at least one for $310. I assume he sold more than that for $310. Everyone was so down on Fire Brigade to the point where it bacame a joke. If you bought them at around $120, you made around $140. Even if you bought them at rrp, you made around $110. How is that not a solid return on your investment for practically doing nothing? For the average reseller, that is great money. I don't think anyone thought it would do this well at this point after EOL. Certainly not me. What's the ceiling on this set? Do you think it might reach $350-400 by Christmas?

prevere

FB's quick success has so much irony to it. Proof that you should never follow the sheep.

doriansdad

FB was hoarded by the masses but it also appeals to the masses. Sure as hell suprised me on how quickly it has appreciated tho. My pile has been sitting at the back of my storage for nearly 2 yrs now...it can sit another 2-3 yrs now that the hard work has already been done

Pitfall69

FB is proof (at least to me) that the Lego aftermarket isn't dead...yet.

legogregors

I am not convinced on FB. It looks like 2 sold on 4/28 for $250 shipped each on eBay. Buying those at retail with tax and holding for 2+ years does not sound appealing. Then paying ~$32 in fees and $14 shipping puts it ~$205. $45 profit without considering ordering/storage/waiting/listing/post office/scammers does not sound as great.

I don't see very many sold for >$300. Of the >$300 sets how many were with international shipping which adds ~$40 to shipping. If several resellers need to exit the market quickly and sell their stacks, the price could be $249.99 then $239.99 and so on. Each undercut hurting their bottom line and others.

Pitfall69

^Regardless, nobody expected FB to do well at all. We will see.

Pitfall69

^Regardless, nobody expected FB to do well at all. We will see.

hoyatables

What are people finding with IS these days?

Pitfall69

Double post. Mods please delete. Thank you :)

y2josh

Pitfall69 said:

Double post. Mods please delete. Thank you :)

Be honest. You really posted that twice hoping someone would jump in with, "NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition!"

I'm on to you and your movie and television quotes.

CCC

legogregors said:

I am not convinced on FB. It looks like 2 sold on 4/28 for $250 shipped each on eBay. Buying those at retail with tax and holding for 2+ years does not sound appealing. Then paying ~$32 in fees and $14 shipping puts it ~$205. $45 profit without considering ordering/storage/waiting/listing/post office/scammers does not sound as great.

I don't see very many sold for >$300. Of the >$300 sets how many were with international shipping which adds ~$40 to shipping. If several resellers need to exit the market quickly and sell their stacks, the price could be $249.99 then $239.99 and so on. Each undercut hurting their bottom line and others.

Also on bricklink, average $US sale is $210, maximum price in last six months $255. Euro sales ... max Eur 220, ave Eur 175, GBP max £175, ave £144.

Still available to purchase at $250 or less.

Pitfall69

^According to MY Bricklink, the Average price sold was $216 and $300.89USD. I don't like using Bricklink anyway because you don't know the description of the item sold. There was a FB that sold for $95.80 and that was probably NEW No box or instructions and just new parts. I'm sure there were a ton sold that were damaged, seals busted, no box just sealed bags.

cheshirecat

^The 300USD was outside the US. Looking at sales in USD only, CCC's $210 and $250 are right. Since January the US prices have been remarkably steady - basically min $199.99 and max $249.99 each month.

CCC

^ I didn't exclude incomplete sets, but did consolidate by currency. I think the most expensive one was sold in Hungarian Forints, probably followed by one of the Aussie sales.

Pitfall69

^I just got some caffeine in my system. I realize my mistake. My apologies.

Didn't @LegoFanTexas sell a crushed/damaged box on here for $220 USD? I guess I'm being overly optimistic.

CCC

I'm not meaning to doubt LFT's data either. I'm sure you could find someone to sell one to for $310. Like most things, there is always someone willing to pay a premium without looking elsewhere. But could you sell 5 at that price? 10? 250? The total market is not that rosy just yet.

Pitfall69

y2josh said:

Pitfall69 said:

Double post. Mods please delete. Thank you :)

Be honest. You really posted that twice hoping someone would jump in with, "NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition!"

I'm on to you and your movie and television quotes.

Nothing should surprise anyone on here at this point.

LegoFanTexas

I sold 4 FB in the past few weeks on Amazon for $300 shipped, never sold one for $310, that was just the current price at the time I posted that.

$300 shipped on Amazon isn't as much as you think, once you take fees and shipping out.

For some reason, I was having a brain lapse and did the math from $200, not $150. For some reason I got it in my head that FB retailed for $200, have no idea where that came from.

After expenses I netted $250 for those FB, which is $100 over RRP, which is fine until you consider storing them for 2 years, then it isn't so hot.

The copies purchased for $107ish from Walmart were much nicer. :)

I sold about 100 FB in the past 6 months, most netted $180 to $200 after fees and shipping. I sold them to free up space and recover some cash, I know holding them a bit longer would make me more money, but it would have higher expenses as well.

Two months ago I ended a lease I had on 2,000 sq ft of storage space that I was using for LEGO, I moved most of that inventory home, about half of it I have now sold, the rest will go this Christmas.

Odindusk

Anyone remember how long this deal lasted? I (obviously) wish I had been able to buy as many Fire Brigades as Amazon would have allowed me...

FollowsClosely

If I recall correctly it was there for a long while. That is when I picked up 20 or so. The rest I go at TRU during a B2G1, that was an even better deal. The FB was always a sure thing for me, and at that purchase price I will be unloading 80% of them this Christmas.

I passed on the pet shop, and I still have yet to buy ANY for resale. That one may surprise us all.

jasor

One thing about the FB to consider....it was out forever, BUT....it was out forever. I would say it's more than likely the most unsealed Modular out there. I have numbers to back that up, promise (*not really). There are bits and pieces of FB's all over Bricklink. The volume broken down FB's has got to affect the MISB market quite a bit.

Brickarmor

The seller with 1265 FBs for $260 will probably keep it down for a while.

@Odindusk Salt in the wound, I recall it being $120 for almost 3 months, something like Jan-Mar 2013.

binaryeye

Brickarmor said:

@Odindusk Salt in the wound, I recall it being $120 for almost 3 months, something like Jan-Mar 2013.

It was regularly in my Amazon gold box deals for $105 in late December 2012 and early January 2013. So at least Amazon must have had it around $110 for a while at that time.

dougts

I seem to recall it being at that price for a very very long time.

vitreolum

LegoFanTexas said:

For some reason I got it in my head that FB retailed for $200, have no idea where that came from.

From Europe. :))

madforLEGO

jasor said:

One thing about the FB to consider....it was out forever, BUT....it was out forever. I would say it's more than likely the most unsealed Modular out there. I have numbers to back that up, promise (*not really). There are bits and pieces of FB's all over Bricklink. The volume broken down FB's has got to affect the MISB market quite a bit.

Its a fire station. I think people also forget that. It is a Fire Station and Fire Stations attract buyers (there is a reason why LEGO puts one out every 2-3 years)
AND it is a Mod, with a nice color scheme, I am not really surprised by it rising as it has.
I think though it will peak about about 250-275 for a while though (prob through next Christmas) as a lot of people are going to sell them off. Which is good for anyone that wanted one but missed it. Why good? Because if you did not have as many that are out there now you will likely see them at about 300-350 now and definitely by Christmas (Heck it could hit 300 by this Christmas IMO).

I also recall these available for TRUs B2G1F sales as well. BOGO50s Then Amazon putting them up on sale at times... Many many people I think got these for well under retail, and like @Jasor said, you have many that were Bricklinkers that bought them for parts either for MOCs or to part out and sell.

mathew

I'll go out on a limb and say that if the Ghostbusters set is a hit that we will see a GB Firestation released in the near future. Looking at the real life model I think that they could pull it off for $99 and under 1,000 pieces. Include slimer and Janine minifigs and possibly a Walter Peck for comedic relief.

graphite

^ Don't forget Louis Tully. If you have Janine you can't leave him out!

They could also do Janosz and a Vigo painting =)

Edit: Also Dana!

TheLoneTensor

LegoFanTexas said:

After expenses I netted $250 for those FB, which is $100 over RRP, which is fine until you consider storing them for 2 years, then it isn't so hot.

33% apr for two years while only storing a moderate box?

That may not be hot for what Lego has reached with other select sets (e.g. Zombies), but I'll take that return every day of the week and twice on sunday.

doriansdad

TheLoneTensor said:

33% apr for two years while only storing a moderate box?

That may not be hot for what Lego has reached with other select sets (e.g. Zombies), but I'll take that return every day of the week and twice on sunday.

That is the huge misconception about reselling Lego (or any other item) by those who do not sell themselves. Buying and sitting on the item take no effort at all (my goldfish can do that). Marketing and customer service is time consuming and takes a ton of knowledge and experience to do correctly. All the noobs sitting on paper profits are in for a very rude awakening when they attempt to liquidate their very illiquid assets. Every day it becomes more difficult to remain selling on the big venues. 90k sellers will be purged on ebay in August and many more will lose their TRS status. After all that time, energy and hoop jumping 33% is awful.

TheLoneTensor

Nope, It's not a misconception, it's a misperception on your part, because it's called gross profits, and that was the start and end of my point, because this was all about discussing how well or not well FB is doing in the marketplace.

Of course, it's a good thing to take things to another level for discussion, except that gap-filled strawman examples aren't usually the best method to do so.

xeeeej

That is the huge misconception about reselling Lego (or any other item) by those who do not sell themselves. Buying and sitting on the item take no effort at all (my goldfish can do that). Marketing and customer service is time consuming and takes a ton of knowledge and experience to do correctly. All the noobs sitting on paper profits are in for a very rude awakening when they attempt to liquidate their very illiquid assets. Every day it becomes more difficult to remain selling on the big venues. 90k sellers will be purged on ebay in August and many more will lose their TRS status. After all that time, energy and hoop jumping 33% is awful.

Link to backup for the 90k comment? Thanks.

Brickaholic

That is the huge misconception about reselling Lego (or any other item) by those who do not sell themselves. Buying and sitting on the item take no effort at all (my goldfish can do that). Marketing and customer service is time consuming and takes a ton of knowledge and experience to do correctly. All the noobs sitting on paper profits are in for a very rude awakening when they attempt to liquidate their very illiquid assets. Every day it becomes more difficult to remain selling on the big venues. 90k sellers will be purged on ebay in August and many more will lose their TRS status. After all that time, energy and hoop jumping 33% is awful.


Maybe you might see Lego selling on ebay themselves shortly, once the evil resellers have been purged. How ironic would that be?

Surely they must make enough margin to cover the fees :)

hoyatables

TheLoneTensor said:

Nope, It's not a misconception, it's a misperception on your part, because it's called gross profits, and that was the start and end of my point, because this was all about discussing how well or not well FB is doing in the marketplace.

Of course, it's a good thing to take things to another level for discussion, except that gap-filled strawman examples aren't usually the best method to do so.

What good is the theoretically attainable gross profit if you can't realize it, or if direct and indirect transaction costs eat away at your profit? I think doriansdad is right on point. Particularly for the casual reseller who picked up an extra set or two. Theoretically I have a couple hundred bucks of profit sitting up in my attic with two ISs and a couple of TC-14s, among other sets. But none of that turns into actual money until I take the time to:
- research and decide when to pull the trigger and sell;
- research various selling venues and decide which is most likely to yield most profit given fees, return policy, shipping policy, etc;
- figure out shipping estimate and logistics in advance;
- figure out a good time to sell when my job and family responsibilities will not preclude me from actually packing it up and mailing it (my dry cleaning has been sitting at the store for two weeks, so I know how non-essential can slip)
- list and actually sell the item
- ship it
- follow up on payment and customer approval.

Given all of the above, they continue to sit in my attic unsold.

All that aside, I don't think doriansdad's post warranted the snark, either.

doriansdad

Sorry for the snarkiness just keeping it real. Lego reselling has to be the hardest way to make easy money I know of :)

cloaked7

doriansdad said:

Sorry for the snarkiness just keeping it real. Lego reselling has to be the hardest way to make easy money I know of :)

Yup. Not all sets appreciate in value. Most sets don't.

Just a few of the key aspects of successful reselling are -
determining the right sets to buy (a very, very important aspect)
when to buy them
how much to pay for them (with fewer discounts this is a bit easier)
when to sell them

Not easy getting all of the above aspects correct. So, a person is pretty much forced to not put all of their eggs in one basket and buy multiple sets with the hope that most are winners. So, it's difficult to just be into reselling a little bit. If you are, you better make sure the sets you pick are winners.

Pitfall69

^That is why diversification is key. You don't put all your eggs into one basket. Are there other investments that are better? Absolutely. Are there investments out there that have as little risk as selling Lego? I highly doubt it. I can honestly say that I have never lost money on a Lego set. I can also say that I have always made a substantial (subjective) profit selling Lego.

Maybe I have just been lucky. Maybe I didn't get sucked into the 50%+ sales on Atlantis and the infamous Construct-a-Zurg.

cloaked7

I have lost $$ on some LEGO sets. And, broke even on some. And, on some I didn't make enough profit to make it worth the trouble. Especially when you figure in all the costs (my time, time value of $$, eBay and PayPal fees, storage, etc.). For me, as a rule of thumb, a set is a waste of my time, and effort, if I don't sell it for double what it cost me.

Shib

That's the thing though isn't it, how much you want back is the crucial factor. I'll admit I'm not a reseller, but I've looked around enough to know that the majority of sets (if misb) sell above rrp once they've gone EOL - obviously there are eBay fees etc that push them up etc but most sets go on sale at some point. But whether it's worth it comes down to how much each person as a reseller expects to make back. Frankly I wouldn't want the hassle of dealing with potential scammers etc, so I haven't gone down the reselling road - the return would have to be far greater than I could guarantee and I have no space to store any stock.

Pitfall69

Now that I'm only working 3 days a week, I have all the time in the world to play around with Lego. We have a large enough house, so storage is not a problem in most cases. They built a new Post Office just 2 miles from my house and it is open until 8 PM with a 24 hour package drop box, which makes it super convenient for me. It only takes me 5-10 mins to pack an item depending on the size.

As an example, I will use the Black Pearl. I bought 4 for $77 a piece when Target had a BOGO sale. I gave one to MY Nephew for cost and sold the rest for $210 a piece on EBay a few months ago. I walked away with $85 profit a piece after fees and shipping with a total of less than 25 mins of my time used to order, list, pack and ship. If making $255 in less than an hour is not with your time, I commend you. Your time is too valuable to be spending on a Lego forum.

doriansdad

Pitfall69 said:

Now that I'm only working 3 days a week, I have all the time in the world to play around with Lego.

I can't remember if you have a daughter? If so you may want to spend that extra time playing around with Frozen merchandise instead of Lego :)