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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,649
    @roxio , using #21103 of course :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited May 2014
    You guys are basically basing your points on Star Wars Lego and not much of anything else. Of course there are going to be rehashed Star Wars sets that may be or may not be better than the original.

    Obviously, the higher the price of a Lego set, the less people out there willing to fork over money for it. I was fortunate enough to come out of my dark ages before Lego started with licenced sets, Modulars and CMF's. I am a completist and I am the type of person that would buy all the past CMF's, Modulars and so forth if I didn't have them.

    Since you guys are using Star Wars in most of your examples; I will too. Not too long ago, I bought a #6211 from a certain @LegoFanTexas. The set was released in 2006 and he happened to still have one laying around. I needed it to complete my OT collection. Yes, a new one is coming out, but it doesn't have Tarkin, R2-D5 and the Imperial Officer (I can't remember his name). I also collect exclusive Star Wars minifigures and I'm currently working on completing my collection. Without resellers or people willing to trade or sell their minifigures, how am I supposed to aquire these?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    TLG made several business decisions, one of which was to try and edge out larger resellers. Another was to produce sets for longer periods of time to push out more inventory to the market and to keep aftermarket prices down a bit. Finally, they have produced so many different sets in the past 2 years, the reason to go back and buy the older sets is almost gone now.

    This!
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    SSD and Deathstar both show as sold out on UK lego.com... Are they gone?
    Pitfall69
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    Got two of each, so I hope so.
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    ^No not yet, they show OOS and the expected ship date is 5th June for DS and 5th July for SSD.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I want a countdown this time!!!
    Milne44Bumblepants
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    Was going to point out that they are OOS not sold out but someone beat me to it....

    Main reason for posting though is that when one of these stalwarts eventually departs, are we likely to see something else fill the sizeable gap? If they both depart then will the Sandcrawler not be the highest price set available?

    Personally missed out on the UCS MF so wouldn't mind seeing another but what are the chances of TLG releasing another £350-400 set?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I'm not trying to be a "Debbie Downer", but those of you expecting a new UCS MF in the future are living in a dreamworld. Some of you want something as grand, but with a finished interior. There is no way Lego is going to release a $600-700 set. In order to keep the price around what the SDD or DS, a new "UCS" MF would have to be a shadow of its previous self. I'm sure Lego will release a new MF to go with the movies and it might be better than the current MF, but a UCS MF the likes of #10179 it will not be.
    dougtsFollowsCloselymonkeyhangerbinaryeyeLegoboy
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I would expect another largish UCS set in 2016 from the new movie to replace SSD.
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    edited May 2014
    A lot of people buy those classic space sets now. Just because a few people here do not does not mean no one must buy these sets.
    Plus with the LEGO movie and Benny it seems that the old Classic Space is having a resurgence lately. I have seen sets that barely sold for 50 dollars now going from 100-150. Will be interesting once the Spaceship is released.
    Also with constant reminders of LEGO I think you are starting to see fathers and mothers wanting to relive those days. (Especially after that LEGO Simpsons episode-As an aside I think the LEGO characters in the episode were better than the actual CMF and set figures IMO)

    Is Classic Space and Town like like a Cafe Corner? No, of course not. But there are markets, even for older 80's sets.
    When I got out of my dark ages I wanted to finish a Classic town collection. Now I can say I'm not the only one, because I see those sets going for decent money on eBay.
    You can also knock SW out of this discussion. Face it, LEGO has constantly replaced almost all of the original sets with (most are) newer improved versions. So of course that will affect values.
    But I still see LEGO 1490 Banks sold for a lot and sell even though there are two other banks available for far less. Again why? By all accounts the #3661 is 'better' with newer parts. for some it is also about the chase for that rare set.

    Again supply and demand. If there is a demand and supplies are low, there will be a market

    Some resellers are stopping at the exclusive ban, but there will be people that will still buy for the 'additional 25 dollars'.
    But considering you hear people on this very site saying they will stop, and by accounts they are decently large resellers, I think it can be said you will see less people trying to resell LEGO, at least the Exclusives, which will lessen available stocks in the after market.
    Mainly because for those people it is truly about overhead. Buying 1 for full cost is no biggie, but if they are buying 20-30 of them it adds up quick Id imagine.
    Pitfall69
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm not trying to be a "Debbie Downer", but those of you expecting a new UCS MF in the future are living in a dreamworld. Some of you want something as grand, but with a finished interior.....but a UCS MF the likes of #10179 it will not be.

    Not expecting, I just can't see what they'd put out in that price range other than a large scale MF. I rarely bother with any of the small SW sets so Im more interested in what could fill the gap...
    Pitfall69
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm not trying to be a "Debbie Downer", but those of you expecting a new UCS MF in the future are living in a dreamworld. Some of you want something as grand, but with a finished interior. There is no way Lego is going to release a $600-700 set. In order to keep the price around what the SDD or DS, a new "UCS" MF would have to be a shadow of its previous self. I'm sure Lego will release a new MF to go with the movies and it might be better than the current MF, but a UCS MF the likes of #10179 it will not be.

    This. The last 2-3 years have shown LEGO continually shrinking the piece count, size, and grandeur of all the largest sets, SW and non-SW alike - while raising the price at the same time of course. The pinnacle of AFOL sets was clearly 2007-2010, and the product has been on the decline since then. Don't get me wrong - the new big big sets are still great for the most part. But they aren't what they were 5 years ago. Any UCS MF rehash isn't going to touch the exterior detail of #10179, and you can bet they will throw in as many exclusive figs as they can justify, further eating into the piece count available for the price target.

    Pitfall69
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited May 2014

    Was going to point out that they are OOS not sold out but someone beat me to it....

    Main reason for posting though is that when one of these stalwarts eventually departs, are we likely to see something else fill the sizeable gap? If they both depart then will the Sandcrawler not be the highest price set available?

    Personally missed out on the UCS MF so wouldn't mind seeing another but what are the chances of TLG releasing another £350-400 set?

    I think the Sandcrawler IS replacing the SSD. Reasons I have for that are:

    1. Sandcrawler doesn't come with booklets, it comes with a mega book like the huge sets do.
    2. SSD is done. Don't start throwing rocks, but I have been told by a few employees that it is retired and all my local stores say they are done getting stock. It's also gone from online retailers in the US.
    3. It is $300. Taking Lego's new apparent stance on more affordable play sets vs big models I would say Lego thinks a $300 set that is more like a play set will sell a lot better than a $400 set that is more like a model.

    Only 3 reasons I have so far, I think they make sense though.

    The only thing I wonder is if the DS goes too at the end of the year what could possibly replace it. A new UCS MF maybe?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    $300 is terribly expensive for a playset that reflects one major scene. I watched the Brickshow side by side comparison between the two Sandcrawlers and to be honest the old one holds it's own. While it's not nearly as detailed it makes up for it in playability. It was also built with over a thousand fewer pieces and is marginally smaller. Finally it was available for $140 upon release. If Lego would have released a similar brick built Sandcrawler for under $200 then I think more people would be able to purchase it.
    y2joshbrickupdate
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited May 2014
    dougts said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm not trying to be a "Debbie Downer", but those of you expecting a new UCS MF in the future are living in a dreamworld. Some of you want something as grand, but with a finished interior. There is no way Lego is going to release a $600-700 set. In order to keep the price around what the SDD or DS, a new "UCS" MF would have to be a shadow of its previous self. I'm sure Lego will release a new MF to go with the movies and it might be better than the current MF, but a UCS MF the likes of #10179 it will not be.

    This. The last 2-3 years have shown LEGO continually shrinking the piece count, size, and grandeur of all the largest sets, SW and non-SW alike - while raising the price at the same time of course. The pinnacle of AFOL sets was clearly 2007-2010, and the product has been on the decline since then. Don't get me wrong - the new big big sets are still great for the most part. But they aren't what they were 5 years ago. Any UCS MF rehash isn't going to touch the exterior detail of #10179, and you can bet they will throw in as many exclusive figs as they can justify, further eating into the piece count available for the price target.

    Back then though Exclusives werent coming out every month nearly, Lego can't possibly keep releasing 4000+ part sets with how regularly they seem to be coming out as of today.

    As soon as one exclusive set comes out, there always seems to be fresh news of another exclusive set To be released.

    There are just so many coming out now that its hard to get excited anymore by them unless they really stand out from the rest, part of the reason why i was so disappointed with the fairground set.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Dougout said:



    I think the Sandcrawler IS replacing the SSD. Reasons I have for that are:

    I think UCS X-Wing and DS go b4 SSD :)

    Pitfall69
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    edited May 2014

    This whole idea that no discounts on exclusives is some kind of game changer is preposterous. Profit on exclusives isn't made on the discount, it is made on the post-EOL appreciation.

    Actually, I disagree...

    Profit is made on the difference between purchase price and the sale price after fees.

    I assure you that my Fire Brigades that were purchased for 25% off have made me far more profit than my copies purchased at full price. :)

    BTW, I just sold my last 3 copies of FB this week, I'm completely out of them now. Also empty of DS and SSD, sold my last SSD this week as well.

    It might well turn out that holding those for another 6 months might have made sense, time will tell.
    Obviously a set bought at a discount will make more profit than a non discounted copy, but where did you make the bulk of your profit on FB...The delta between the discounted price and MSRP or the delta between MSRP and your final sale price?
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    Uh.... Why does it matter? profit is the difference between the amount you paid and the amount you received back, simple as that.
    LegoFanTexasBumblepants
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409


    Obviously a set bought at a discount will make more profit than a non discounted copy, but where did you make the bulk of your profit on FB...The delta between the discounted price and MSRP or the delta between MSRP and your final sale price?

    In this case, the bulk of the profit was on the discount off MSRP. I made less than $50 profit on each Fire Brigade purchased at MSRP. On those purchased at discount, I made more than twice that. It was nearly triple the margin.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    Uh.... Why does it matter? profit is the difference between the amount you paid and the amount you received back, simple as that.

    The point was that the lack of discounts doesn't kill the ability of resellers to profit off of exclusives and isn't going to lead to a dearth of exclusives on the market post-EOL.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited May 2014
    Dougout said:


    3. It is $300. Taking Lego's new apparent stance on more affordable play sets vs big models I would say Lego thinks a $300 set that is more like a play set will sell a lot better than a $400 set that is more like a model.

    I think this is TLG's new model. Playsets that are detailed enough to display, but has playable features like minifigures and other features. The problem is that the models aren't as detailed as a "normal" UCS set would be.

    dougts
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ it certainly seems to be the case. And you can see why they would do it, as they are likely going to sell a lot more in the end, because:
    1) minifigures. LEGO has (unfortunately) become all about the 'fig, more often than not at the expense of the build.
    2) No doubt those of us who like to display models are a pretty small minority. If they can get us all to buy the huge playsets anyway (which most of us will), but they can pull in the non-display fans as well, then it's a no brainer.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    This is one reason why I don't think we will see another UCS MF rehash. Anything is possible, but I'm 99% sure Lego won't. That ship has sailed...um...err...blasted its way out of Mos Eisley.

    I see a more detailed System MF with minifigures related to the new movie or OT. You will have the MF and possibly some small buildings to go with it. Maybe bits of the hanger bay at Hoth with Imperial Snowtroopers for example.

  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,938
    edited May 2014
    Pitfall69 said:


    I think this is TLG's new model. Playsets that are detailed enough to display, but has playable features like minifigures and other features. The problem is that the models aren't as detailed as a "normal" UCS set would be.

    That is definitely the Sandcrawler to a tee, could have looked a lot smoother, far more SNOT-like if they'd bricked/technic-armed the outer skin rather than multi-plate it, all for a similar (but slightly greater) piece count - on the main body at least.

    Would have been a lot trickier to get the front-end angles just right, and the finish wouldn't have matched the body (studs vs SNOT) unless they'd extensively tiled the plated front end. Would have been doable, but maybe for 500 more pieces that also pushed the average piece weight right up. The ramp and the flappable body sides could have been constructed in a similar way that the IS wings were, to maintain strength and still have the SNOT look.

    I do like the Sandcrawler I have, for it's shape - but i'm also envious of the flawless SNOT mocs out there.

    With a similar approach to UCS sets in the future, I think that any new "UCS" MF kit is going to be no more than 4000 pieces and be 2/3 the size of the old one as a result. This probably won't impact the starfighters and ships/vehicles no bigger than the IS (who would have wanted an X-wing twice as long/wide/high as the #10240?), but for the bigger sets scaled down considerably for Lego, they will probably suffer.

    In order to appeal to the upper end of the play market as well as the display biased AFOL, the finished article will have to be pretty robust and possibly swooshable - no more sets where something will fall off as soon as you look at it the wrong way.

    Pitfall69dougts
  • klatu003klatu003 Hobbiton, Shire, Middle EarthMember Posts: 721
    ^ "flawless SNOT mocs" gets my vote for phrase of the day


    Pitfall69CircleKcloaked7
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379


    Obviously a set bought at a discount will make more profit than a non discounted copy, but where did you make the bulk of your profit on FB...The delta between the discounted price and MSRP or the delta between MSRP and your final sale price?

    In this case, the bulk of the profit was on the discount off MSRP. I made less than $50 profit on each Fire Brigade purchased at MSRP. On those purchased at discount, I made more than twice that. It was nearly triple the margin.
    How much are you selling them for? I bought my FBs for 30% off and, at current prices, I would be making much more on the differential between MSRP and sale price rather than the differential between the discounted price and MSRP.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited May 2014
    klatu003 said:

    ^ "flawless SNOT mocs" gets my vote for phrase of the day

    If I was still single that would go to the top of my list of pickup lines.

    "Daaaamn Baby... You are finer than a flawless SNOT moc".

    cloaked7Ronyar
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    edited May 2014


    Obviously a set bought at a discount will make more profit than a non discounted copy, but where did you make the bulk of your profit on FB...The delta between the discounted price and MSRP or the delta between MSRP and your final sale price?

    In this case, the bulk of the profit was on the discount off MSRP. I made less than $50 profit on each Fire Brigade purchased at MSRP. On those purchased at discount, I made more than twice that. It was nearly triple the margin.
    How much are you selling them for? I bought my FBs for 30% off and, at current prices, I would be making much more on the differential between MSRP and sale price rather than the differential between the discounted price and MSRP.
    You are assuming that he is still selling them.
    If someone is buying 2 FB at RRP that is one thing.
    If people are buying 50 of them to make only 50-100, for example, then that 25% adds up IMO.
    That discount also means that he could sell them for less than what they are typical going for to make a quicker profit than holding them for longer.
    I believe LFT and other resellers have said in the past they do not want to hold onto sets for a long period of time as they do also take up space.

    So will there be a bunch of people holding onto 5 of something? Sure, but I think you are going to reduce those holding onto larger amounts of sets and those holding onto sets for bigger gains which means they will increase quicker in price than before the ban IMO.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    How much are you selling them for? I bought my FBs for 30% off and, at current prices, I would be making much more on the differential between MSRP and sale price rather than the differential between the discounted price and MSRP.

    The last one I sold was for $300 shipped.

    After taking off selling fees and shipping, it really isn't making all that much for those copies bought at retail price. For those bought for 30% off, it is much more interesting.

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Creator-Fire-Brigade-10197/dp/B002O064J0/

    The price today is a bit higher, about $310 shipped, but that doesn't make that much difference.

    If I held them another 6 months, I'm sure I would do better, this is pretty early after retirement for a 4 year set, but I'm also looking to move on so I was ok to sell them at this point. Some of my copies have been on the shelf more than 2 years. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Your business model is different than most here. We don't have a warehouse to store our Lego sets and we don't have employees to box up and ship sets, so we don't have that overhead to deal with. I'm sure there are plenty of items that will do just as well if not better than Lego in the aftermarket and obviously you found that item :)
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    CircleK said:

    klatu003 said:

    ^ "flawless SNOT mocs" gets my vote for phrase of the day

    If I was still single that would go to the top of my list of pickup lines.

    "Daaaamn Baby... You are finer than a flawless SNOT moc".

    What, you're not going to say that to your wife?

    ;o)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I will say that to my wife right now.
    rancorbait
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    Ha ha ha. Leave it to @Pitfall69 ;o)

  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055

    CircleK said:

    klatu003 said:

    ^ "flawless SNOT mocs" gets my vote for phrase of the day

    If I was still single that would go to the top of my list of pickup lines.

    "Daaaamn Baby... You are finer than a flawless SNOT moc".

    What, you're not going to say that to your wife?

    ;o)
    No. Because then I would have to explain it to her. And then she would laugh and make a smart-ass comment like "yeah... You're right - I don't have a stud on top". Then my feelings would be hurt.

    dougtsPitfall69rancorbaitsidersddcloaked7jasorricecake
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    My wife: What's an MOC?
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,294
    Pitfall69 said:



    I see a more detailed System MF with minifigures related to the new movie or OT. You will have the MF and possibly some small buildings to go with it. Maybe bits of the hanger bay at Hoth with Imperial Snowtroopers for example.

    With the way things are going TLG might just do that but still slap a UCS label on the box.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,446

    I've found that you've got to be very quick off the mark or wait until the others have sold out at the bottom end to make anything. I do find it crazy when (as an example) some people on ebay are willing to sell 15 x TC-4s for less than £7 each on an individual basis, with recorded delivery included, just to undercut everyone else by £3, making less than a pound on each one when all fees, packaging materials, signed-for delivery and cost to acquire were taken into account (but not counting trips to the post office and the trip to get them in the first place).

    When people are prepared to work for £2 an hour, the sellers market has gone crazy.

    I see a couple of opportunities a year to make enough to keep the hobby going without working for coppers, try doing that on a scale to pay the bills and you'll be working very hard.

    I think surprising many people are willing to work for that amount, given the number of times I see it happen. I can understand it though. Someone buys a lot of something, realises other people have done exactly the same, and they also realise that they didn't really have the money to invest long term. So they have to get shot of their stock quickly which means undercutting. I imagine a number of people don't even think about how much ebay and paypal fees are until after they have sold - in the case of ebay fees, probably a month after they have sold.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Keep in mind that even if you have the money to invest long term, doesn't mean it makes for a good long term investment.

    I think going forward LEGO reselling will work well enough for those who hobby resell. Buy two, keep one and sell one, will do nicely to cover the cost of the hobby and not take up much space or time.

    The economics are quite different for that, than when actually investing and trying to make a living at it. :)
    cloaked7brickupdate
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,446
    ^ Yes. I think also in the case of TC-4, people were basing what they would get on the first few ebay sales. Once they were available in widespread locations, the price was never going to stay at £20 or so. I had the same with the Frodo cooking corner, I bought a load in the US on release and managed to trade them or sell them at £10 before it was announced as a free poly with a newspaper in the UK. As soon as it was widespread, it dropped to £1 or so, and even now can be had for about £2.00-£2.50.

    The same happens with most of the more recent newspaper polys, they never really rise significantly (exception is #30160, and #30163, and the odd older SW one). No doubt some people will invest heavily in the coming promo. At 50p a go they seem like good value. But by the time you have sold them for £2 including postage, then paid for postage, ebay and paypal fees, there isn't going to be much left. Even holding them for a year, you might get an extra 50p. Smarter money will probably go elsewhere.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @legofantexas - while I agree with you, the biggest problem for the hobby reseller is becoming the restrictions in the marketplace. Ebay (my primary platform) is becoming a nightmare and by all accounts so is Amazon. Bricklink is always steady, albeit slow, and craigslist will be the first to go by the wayside as the bubble continues to collapse. I think prices will continue to fall for anyone selling. Margins may get to the point that it is not worth anyone's time to hold much unopened stock. As I said back 100's of pages ago, I sold my sportscard shop as that bubble was collapsing, there are a lot of similarities here. 1) Manufacturer is profit-taking and destroying margins, 2) many fly-by-nighters jumping on and off the bandwagon, 3) Manufacturer flooding the market with overpriced product forcing the consumer to spend more on new product.

    Now I know that people say that the bricks will always be worth more than cardboard is, but I fear that the train is really beginning to slow down.
    FollowsCloselycloaked7VaderX
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,446
    edited May 2014
    wagnerml2 said:


    Now I know that people say that the bricks will always be worth more than cardboard is, but I fear that the train is really beginning to slow down.

    I agree, brick prices have really come down in the past few weeks (here in the UK), even if only temporarily. I buy mainly greys, browns, tans, black and white. With all the sales on Hobbit sets, I have bought loads of castle / historic building materials.
    brickupdate
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,938
    TC-4 was my first (and only) foray into bricklink selling. I sold all but one of my 17 TC-4s through bricklink after pulling my ebay listing when the price dived from £14, to £10, to £7 in the space of a day. A German lad paid £12.80 each (+ postage) for the lot through bricklink (presumably to sell on as they hadn't been seen in Germany at that point), one lot of postage/one consignment. Instant £152 profit for 10 mins packing. I wish I could do that every day. Puzzlingly for me though, i've never been invoiced by bricklink for their 3% cut - I feel a little guilty about that. TC-4 paid for 60% of my Sandcrawler.
    MiniFigHunter
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    TLG pumping out tons of brand new sets also assumes that plastic will be in plentiful, cheap supply for toys for many years to come.
    madforLEGO
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    wagnerml2 said:

    As I said back 100's of pages ago, I sold my sportscard shop as that bubble was collapsing, there are a lot of similarities here. 1) Manufacturer is profit-taking and destroying margins, 2) many fly-by-nighters jumping on and off the bandwagon, 3) Manufacturer flooding the market with overpriced product forcing the consumer to spend more on new product.

    Now I know that people say that the bricks will always be worth more than cardboard is, but I fear that the train is really beginning to slow down.

    Ha, I was saying this 100's of pages ago and people said I was flat out wrong. Collectables are collectables regardless of what they are made out of. They are only worth what people are willing to pay for them. There are only so many AFOL who also MOC so the market for loose bricks is pretty much a niche.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,938
    There is value in the loose brick, I don't think the bricklink market for loose bricks is under threat, except for that niche market for rare parts on a bricklinked set that has become way too expensive in the aftermarket. Who's going to bricklink a UCS MF and create demand for £80 pairs of LBG rigging when TLG release another, unless the redo is massively inferior to the original? But for your other parts that are "normally priced", will we really see a dip in price commanded?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I'm sure a lot has to do with the economic situation as well. People are scared and are holding onto their money. Costs for everything are going up. College tuition is sky high and keeps rising. People are being forced to buy health insurance and may not have the disposable income anymore.

    I still don't buy the Sports Card comparison. I was in the business as well a long time ago. It costs just as much to make a Tom Brady card as it does to make Dan Bailey card. They make just as many as well. Sports cards go up and down based on the athletes performance on the field. You don't know what you are getting inside a pack of cards, but you do when you buy a Lego set. With a Lego set you can keep it MIB, build it, tear it down and build something else. What toy can you open and play with and probably sell for as much as you bought it for after you are done? There are so many things that Sports Cards are not and honesty I think you can compare either. The markets for each are different.
    madforLEGO
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891

    TC-4 was my first (and only) foray into bricklink selling. I sold all but one of my 17 TC-4s through bricklink after pulling my ebay listing when the price dived from £14, to £10, to £7 in the space of a day. A German lad paid £12.80 each (+ postage) for the lot through bricklink (presumably to sell on as they hadn't been seen in Germany at that point), one lot of postage/one consignment. Instant £152 profit for 10 mins packing. I wish I could do that every day. Puzzlingly for me though, i've never been invoiced by bricklink for their 3% cut - I feel a little guilty about that. TC-4 paid for 60% of my Sandcrawler.

    Bricklink has a bizarre and overly generous policy on commission fees. You have to reach a certain dollar amount (maybe $100), before they'll ask for payment. There are probably dozens and dozens of tiny sellers, who've never paid Bricklink a cent in fees.
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,649
    ^ Bricklink will only invoice you if you own more than $10 in fees for non US seller ($5 for US sellers)
    jasorPitfall69
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited May 2014

    Dougout said:

    Dougout said:



    I think the Sandcrawler IS replacing the SSD. Reasons I have for that are:

    I think UCS X-Wing and DS go b4 SSD :)

    oops you got me, don't know what I was thinking there. DS b4 SSD maybe. I guess this is why it is better to build the sets before you make judgement calls on how great they are.
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