Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

sweetness34

I never called anyone a douchebag

TheLoneTensor

I guess another way to think about my advice from above is to imagine something is retired and unavailable through normal retail channels. If that's the case, figure out what you'd be comfortable paying for it at that point. Then, apply that number before it retires and buy it at or below that price. You will be able to.

It's all a mindset, and it's weird and illogical. A set is "wanted," and then it retires and suddenly it's "really wanted." You have to get past the strange reality distortion that availability and retirement create. The fact is, unless you want to be disappointed, you have to act, or you'll have nobody to blame but yourself, and certainly not resellers by that point.

Pitfall69

sweetness34 said:

I never called anyone a douchebag

My bad. I guess I was just running the post together with yours. My apologies :)

sweetness34

No worries I was mostly joking when I typed it up that way. Forgot to add the ;)

Pitfall69

sweetness34 said:

No worries I was mostly joking when I typed it up that way. Forgot to add the ;)

Again, I'm sorry. I am man enough to admit it despite the the avatar ;)

vasp

SSD gone overnight from both walmart and target

azarbillie

I think SSD is definitely retiring very very soon...

mathew

The SSD was not on the shelf at the local Lego store. I wonder if it's being held for May the 4th.

Sierra26

SSD showing oos till the 27th of may on shop at home ....

dragonhawk

vasp said:

SSD gone overnight from both walmart and target

Wait, what ? No goodbye countdown ???

madforLEGO

Well SSD is 'temporarily out of stock' on S@H. Will be interesting if this is 'out of stock' during the May the 4th sale.
But to be honest Id rather buy the Sandcrawler over the SSD if I had to pick between the two, and not just for the price point. You can do A LOT more IMO with the Sandcrawler than SSD and it is to the scale of the minifigures, not like the SSD which is nothing more than a giant paperweight with a few figs thrown in to entice people to buy it.

TheLoneTensor

I apparently haven't been paying attention to TRU lately. When did the DS get bumped up to $500 and the SSD to $540?

graphite

^ Probably when they started going OOS other places. Thats the TRU aftermarket.

madforLEGO

^^ That occurred about 30 days ago. Just like the Mods at TRU are now all like 180 or something like that.

prevere

And as the sun starts to expand into its Red Giant phase, encompassing the earth in a ball of fire, the Dynamic Duo will still be available for $60 at TRU.

vasp

Looks like GE is gone too (10211) s@h says will ship in 30 days

littlepuppi

GE is gone?!

Briking

#10211 still available on the UK site

madforLEGO

vasp said:

Looks like GE is gone too (10211) s@h says will ship in 30 days

I wish people would stop saying something is 'gone' or 'sold out' when it is on back order. Two entirely different phases folks.

luckie_reubs

prevere said:

And as the sun starts to expand into its Red Giant phase, encompassing the earth in a ball of fire, the Dynamic Duo will still be available for $60 at TRU.

I'm really hoping for a sale on this set sometime soon. I don't know if it will EVER happen, but I'll grab it in a second if it does.

Farmer_John

TRU had a sale on the Dynamic Duo set for roughly $35 per copy a couple months ago. That's a heck of a sale from TRU considering $60 is probably their normal price. ;-)

It's actually a great set with lots of minifigs; however, TLG had it out so long that the market is definitely flooded. I think the "Red Giant" comment is apt...

FollowsClosely

I go my copies for $27 :) My TRU had hundreds of them at the time. I only grabbed 20.

wagnerml2

Anyone heard from @LFT? he was threatening to sell down his stock. Wondering if that is currently in process.

prevere

^I was thinking the same thing.

Dougout

@LFT got drawn into a war with TLG. I assumed he hasn't been posting because he was trying to be secretive, but he might be selling his stock off, who knows.

wagnerml2

Eeekk. A war with TLG. Not a prospect I would fancy.

littlepuppi

TLG = The Lego Group?

legogregors

I have not noticed any Marketplace posts from him.

cloaked7

wagnerml2 said:

Anyone heard from @LFT? he was threatening to sell down his stock. Wondering if that is currently in process.

If so, I wouldn't blame him. The environment is not as nice as it was years ago. eBay has changed for the worse. Same for TLG. I plan to be pretty much out after Christmas of this year.

prevere

Reselling dark ages begun have they?

dougts

yeah. after spending several years building my inventory, I'm finding myself doing much less buying this year. I hope to clear out half my inventory this holiday season, and dwindle the rest down in 2015. I don't expect to be out for good, but I'm certainly going to be a lot more selective in the future I think.

Pitfall69

He's not being secretive. He has probably moved on to something else. It has been talked about before...when you buy and sell Lego and treat it as a business, you tend to lose the desire to collect. I'm sure that is what has happened as well as the market drying up.

Bumblepants

He probably also grew weary of being the 'Evil Resellers Whipping Boy' and getting ragged on in just about every thread regardless of why or how the aftermarket got brought into the discussion.

LegoFanTexas

:) It is nice to be missed... but no, it has nothing to do with the "Evil Resellers Whipping Boy" topics, I can ignore those well enough. :)

Yes, I did decide to sell down my inventory, I replaced very little from last Christmas and my goal is to be completely empty by the end of this year, but that probably won't happen because I have stuff that won't have gone up in price by then.

I've moved on, working on new business ideas, LEGO has been fun, but it was unlikely to ever be a long term deal, the whole thing is controlled by TLG and they simply didn't want to play, and since it is their ball, they get to make that call.

The market will ebb and flow, it will have its up and its down years, but I doubt we'll see 2007-2010 again any time soon, that was rather special in terms of the number of "big sets" that LEGO came out with that were new and had not really been done before, now they have a new big set out every other month and they have flooded the market. The very fact that web sites exist for the sole purpose of "investing" in LEGO tells me the party is over. :)

I do sell other stuff online, but I'm wrapping those up as well, the eBay/Amazon selling environment isn't what it used to be either. eBay's fees are up, Amazon has gotten less friendly for sellers, and there are more of them pushing prices down.

I don't regret it one bit, it has been fun, but that is where I'm at.

Pitfall69

We probably won't see what we have seen in the past, but there is still enough wiggle room to make money in the aftermarket. Maybe not as your sole means of income, but enough to finance your own collection.

I've just begun trimming my collection down. I used to collect everything that caught my fancy, now I just stick to certain themes. It is great not having to sell Lego for a living. If I don't sell anything, it is no big deal. My sets have been selling, but not at the rate they used to sell.

Farmer_John

FollowsClosely said:

I go my copies for $27 :) My TRU had hundreds of them at the time. I only grabbed 20.

I'm sure you will be able to make a decent profit getting them for that price. Again, it's one of those sets that will appreciate over time due to the good selection of minifigs.

prevere

Good to hear from you LFT. It's great to love what you sell, and sell what you love. But sometimes, you have to pull a Lloyd Dobler and rethink the whole thing.

"I don't want to sell anything, buy anything, or process anything as a career. I don't want to sell anything bought or processed, or buy anything sold or processed, or process anything sold, bought, or processed, or repair anything sold, bought, or processed. You know, as a career, I don't want to do that."

DadsAFOL

Dougout

^Hahaha, that's awesome

doriansdad

Sorry to see many of the old crew leaving this game. This game has definitely changed and will continue to change. Ebay is ending free fixed price listings for the toys and hobbies category on the 15th of this month unless you buy a store subscription. Going to be an interesting xmas.

brickupdate

Okay @LegoFanTexas - I'm curious as to what "they simply didn't want to play, and since it is their ball, they get to make that call." Did you approach them directly with some kind of deal? This sounds more specific than just larger market forces of them producing more sets, more often, and not retiring as quickly.

mathew

doriansdad said:

Ebay is ending free fixed price listings for the toys and hobbies category on the 15th of this month unless you buy a store subscription. Going to be an interesting xmas.

Let me get this straight: There will be a listing fee regardless if the item sells? Not a big deal as I list items to sell. And quickly. But if they are tacking on another fee on top of the selling fee then that is a problem.

doriansdad

Yes. If you do not have a store subscription after May 15 each fixed price listing will be $0.30 (US site only). You will still have 50 free auction style listings. For certian categories only (toys and hobbies being one of them).

LegoFanTexas

brickupdate said:

Okay @LegoFanTexas - I'm curious as to what "they simply didn't want to play, and since it is their ball, they get to make that call." Did you approach them directly with some kind of deal? This sounds more specific than just larger market forces of them producing more sets, more often, and not retiring as quickly.

Nope, nothing that complex... TLG is just but one part of the overall market... Their actions didn't help, but frankly their actions took place over a year ago, so that isn't new.

I sat down after Christmas and gave the business a long hard look... and ultimately after putting a bunch of stuff in the "good" column and a bunch of stuff in the "bad" column, I decided it wasn't worth doing anymore.

Can I make a living at it? Yes. Can I grow it as large as I wanted to? No.

And that is the long and short of it. The overall market is no longer as favorable and the future growth is no longer as enticing as it once was.

Can you still make some extra hobby money on the side? Sure, but that isn't what I was doing. :)

vasp

Don't want to quote both LFt's posts due to the size of the posts.
I echo your thoughts word to word. I exclusively sell on amazon and it has not been as favorable as it has been before. Havent bought any lego in 2014 due to this very reason. Fortunately for me its extra income, but I came very late into the game. Missed the 2007-2010 period.

monkeyhanger

I've found that you've got to be very quick off the mark or wait until the others have sold out at the bottom end to make anything. I do find it crazy when (as an example) some people on ebay are willing to sell 15 x TC-4s for less than £7 each on an individual basis, with recorded delivery included, just to undercut everyone else by £3, making less than a pound on each one when all fees, packaging materials, signed-for delivery and cost to acquire were taken into account (but not counting trips to the post office and the trip to get them in the first place).

When people are prepared to work for £2 an hour, the sellers market has gone crazy.

I see a couple of opportunities a year to make enough to keep the hobby going without working for coppers, try doing that on a scale to pay the bills and you'll be working very hard.

Farmer_John

I think the significantly reduced number of posts to this thread over the past 12 months speaks volumes to the state of reselling Lego sets and figures. There are several factors that have culminated to squeeze reselling. A few of these are: the number of resellers, the lack of discounts on exclusive sets, TLG flooding the market with new sets and themes, and the poor economy...just to name a few. All of these weren't as big of an issue from 2007-2010 (or even 2011).

To take it a step further, even collecting just for fun with no intent of reselling is getting too rich for me as an AFOL (and I believe others as well). Some of the smaller sets are decent, but most are boring as a build. It's the larger sets that I enjoy building; however, TLG is pricing them out of the market with no opportunity to grab a single set on the cheap (e.g., May the 4th sale). Sure I'll still purchase Lego products from time to time, but the flow of cash from me to TLG has significantly dwindled over the past 12 months...

jcb193

I would suspect a lot of the people selling on ebay at very low margins ($1-2) are people that are just trying to exit the game and unload inventory.....

luckie_reubs

Well, if any of you guys want to unload a "Two Face Chase", I'll be happy to consider taking it off your hands.

flyingpig

I think the bigger concern should be over-saturation and market fatigue. People can only buy so many lego sets a year for so many years before running out of space. When LEGO stops expanding and opening new stores it will be a sign the party is over.