Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

vasp

Amazon is finally out of SSD

stevemack

Ooooo... Exciting times when you're sat on more than 10 of them :)

Basta

vasp said:

Amazon is finally out of SSD

Doh! I was holding out until May 4th to get one for my own collection. That may turn out to have been a mistake :(

Just last week I could still add 999 of them to my cart, I really can't see them selling that many $400 sets in a week. So they didn't actually have 999+ or they have removed them for some reason, maybe a May 4th sale item?

stevemack

I don't think the adding 999 to your basket works anymore personally... I've been able to do it recently and then 10 minutes later all gone....

FollowsClosely

^^ Target.com still has some in stock.

wagnerml2

I always smile at how desirable a set becomes as it begins to EOL across the landscape.

FollowsClosely

^Yep :) This is one of the few sets that I am not buying more of right at the end of its life. I see much better options to place a $420 dollar bill.

tom4086

Just another example of the scarcity heuristic...

TheLoneTensor

I have absolutely no doubt this will be > $400 not long after retirement, but the fact of the matter is, it has to be way beyond $400 to make it worthwhile to deal with this beast of a box.

Basta

FollowsClosely said:

^^ Target.com still has some in stock.

Yeah, my biggest problem is I'm in Australia. Apart from Amazon.com and TRU (who want $539!! for if) no other US stores ship.

As risky as it may be I'm still going to waiting for May 4th, in the hope that some where will have a sale or bonus etc. I am going to have my Mail forwarding service set up though, so if need be I can pull the trigger from any of the US based stores.

I really should have got this back when I could have had it for $360 AUD shipped, but as long as I can get it for less the the AU RRP of $699.99 I'll be happy (sort of).

exciter1

Amazon is waiting to make them available again to match LEGO's $250 price point on May 4th. Wishful thinking...

CCC

It might just be a smart move. Remove stock, people realise it is gone and will snap one up whenever they see one. Relist 10% of them at 25% more than RRP and people buy thinking they have got a bargain. Repeat, increasing the price each time.

dragonhawk

CCC said:

It might just be a smart move. Remove stock, people realise it is gone and will snap one up whenever they see one. Relist 10% of them at 25% more than RRP and people buy thinking they have got a bargain. Repeat, increasing the price each time.

Wait, are you saying TRU's 125% RRP prices are the right way to do this all along ?

CCC

dragonhawk said:

CCC said:

It might just be a smart move. Remove stock, people realise it is gone and will snap one up whenever they see one. Relist 10% of them at 25% more than RRP and people buy thinking they have got a bargain. Repeat, increasing the price each time.

Wait, are you saying TRU's 125% RRP prices are the right way to do this all along ?

No, they do that from day 1 of release. :-)

Doing it at the end of life makes sense for retailer, if the set will shift reasonably quickly at a markup once it is known to be EOL.

dragonhawk

CCC said:

dragonhawk said:

CCC said:

It might just be a smart move. Remove stock, people realise it is gone and will snap one up whenever they see one. Relist 10% of them at 25% more than RRP and people buy thinking they have got a bargain. Repeat, increasing the price each time.

Wait, are you saying TRU's 125% RRP prices are the right way to do this all along ?

No, they do that from day 1 of release. :-)

Doing it at the end of life makes sense for retailer, if the set will shift reasonably quickly at a markup once it is known to be EOL.

Haha. Although I do not think the big boxes are smart enough or diligent enough to pull this off.

FollowsClosely

^ I doubt that it will ever happen, it's not worth it to them, they deal in volume. What may happen is an automatic price algorithm adjusts the price upward as the price moves in the general market. But that assumes someone get the ball rolling up the hill.

Farmer_John

While many Lego sets seem to be on the shelves interminably, two smaller sets that have the potential to appreciate appear to have quietly EOL'd: #71004 and #21104.

The Lego Movie CMFs #71004 didn't seem to be on the shelves as long as other CMFs, which could portend a decent appreciation (assuming more aren't produced). Interestingly, the case price for these on eBay is a lot higher then it would normally be at this time for other CMF series cases. One thought is that TLG is trying to move The Lego Movie CMFs by selling full box sets...not as individual packets...to drive higher revenue. No licensing fees either...

The Mars Curiosity Rover #21104 came and went quickly, and is currently at 2X its RRP on eBay. I think the appreciation of this set has stalled because many believe TLG may produce more, which is doubtful. I can easily see it topping out at 4X RRP within the next year.

Finally, I'm giving the Maersk Triple-E #10241 less than 6 months before it's gone as well. TLG seems to EOL Maersk Ships much faster than the typical TLG set. The last Maersk ship #10155 was EOL'd within 6 months.

Pitfall69

#10155 EOL'd quickly because they were trying to use up all the Maersk Blue correct? Itewas also the third rendition of the same model.

Farmer_John

^It could be, but they were concurrently selling the Maersk Train set #10219. Are they different colors of Maersk blue?

I prefer #10155 over #10241. Maybe because I'm OCD and there are dozens of stickers on #10241 that HAVE to be straight and square. AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

Pitfall69

^I do believe the "blue" in the container ship is not the same "blue" that is in the train. Don't quote me on that.

FollowsClosely

The latest container ship is the only Maersk set that did not boast maersk blue.

Farmer_John

^I'm old enough not to dare question anyone's opinion when it comes to colors...

Pitfall69

http://brickset.com/sets?query=MAERSK

According to Brickset, #10155 had a different blue than previous Container Ships. So, I was wrong, but it is a different blue than the classic Maersk Blue.

My theory was incorrect. I just got my facts mixed up. I don't know exactly why the last ship was only out for 6 months. Maybe the molds changed. Are there any pieces on that ship that Lego doesn't make anymore?

DadsAFOL

I think you guys are talking about the "old Maersk" and "new Maersk" blues. This change occurred around the big color palette shift of 2003. The color used in the #10155 and #10219 was distinctly richer than the color of the '80's/'90's. I never had #10152 so I can't speak as to which color group that one fell into.

CCC

Farmer_John said:

While many Lego sets seem to be on the shelves interminably, two smaller sets that have the potential to appreciate appear to have quietly EOL'd: #71004 and #21104.

The Lego Movie CMFs #71004 didn't seem to be on the shelves as long as other CMFs, which could portend a decent appreciation (assuming more aren't produced). Interestingly, the case price for these on eBay is a lot higher then it would normally be at this time for other CMF series cases. One thought is that TLG is trying to move The Lego Movie CMFs by selling full box sets...not as individual packets...to drive higher revenue. No licensing fees either...

The Mars Curiosity Rover #21104 came and went quickly, and is currently at 2X its RRP on eBay. I think the appreciation of this set has stalled because many believe TLG may produce more, which is doubtful. I can easily see it topping out at 4X RRP within the next year.

It's quite location dependent. #21104 was available continuously for a good three months in the UK and I don't think had anywhere near the same level of reseller hype, which may well mean that most people that want one got one. And #71004 don't seem to be out of stock in the UK either, and some retailers are discounting them like previous CMF series.

Dougout

SSD still only says temporarily out of stock at Lego.com. I think it will come back in.

Troybin

Late coming into this thread. What's SSD?

SuperTramp

Super Star Destroyer

Troybin

Ah, thank you kindly.

cloaked7

Farmer_John said:

The Mars Curiosity Rover #21104 came and went quickly, and is currently at 2X its RRP on eBay. I think the appreciation of this set has stalled because many believe TLG may produce more, which is doubtful. I can easily see it topping out at 4X RRP within the next year.

I hope you're correct. I have 8 of them. I think $120 is doable.

Farmer_John

cloaked7 said:

I hope you're correct. I have 8 of them. I think $120 is doable.

I'm basing my opinion somewhat on the Hayabusa #21101. The Hayabusa is now at 2X even though it was discounted by TLG prior to EOLing last year. Personally, I like the Rover better too.

As for the #10241, I purchased a single copy. I would feel guilty selling someone a Lego set with so many stickers...

Dougout

I missed the boat on the Hayabusa and Rover. I plan on getting both on the aftermarket soon enough. Got to collect the Cuusoos, maybe not the submarine. I don't know if it will make a difference, but the Cuusoo name is being dropped and a new Lego Ideas site is being launched on April 30th. Might not mean much, but the Ghostbusters Cuusoo should be the last one.

Farmer_John

^Interesting...I didn't know the "Cuusoo" name was going away.

stevemack

^ Only announced in the last few days I think :)

luckie_reubs

I'm at home this week and the local walgreens has about 15 Lego Movie CMFs in stock. I can't bring myself to pay $3.99/ea for them, though. Too bad it's not at $2.99; I'd have grabbed the lot of them.

ecmo47

Just noticed that #102221 (SSD), #10188 (DS Playset), #10240 (X-wing), #10225 (R2D2) are not listed in the Star Wars Theme on Lego.com (US). They are listed under the "Exclusives" banner but I wonder if that doesn't indicate May 4th sales. The new Sandcrawler does show under both tabs.

joel4motion

ecmo47 said:

Just noticed that #102221 (SSD), #10188 (DS Playset), #10240 (X-wing), #10225 (R2D2) are not listed in the Star Wars Theme on Lego.com (US). They are listed under the "Exclusives" banner but I wonder if that doesn't indicate May 4th sales. The new Sandcrawler does show under both tabs.

S@H UK is having issues at the moment with categories and page loading so may well be that they are changing a few things up or just that their site is giving up again...

ecmo47

Over on the May 4th thread, there was a link to Hoth Bricks that shows that those 4 sets will be 15% off at least in Europe.

Hardrada

The Kingdoms Chess Set went to 'Sold Out' today on European S@H sites. Seeing that it was clearanced in the US several months ago it most likely is gone for good.

CCC

Good spot, 23 months for that one. One of the best sets of recent times for minifig army builders.

piratemania7

Chinese minifigs though - albeit yes one of the better army builders in recent times.

bp10030

Hardrada said:

The Kingdoms Chess Set went to 'Sold Out' today on European S@H sites. Seeing that it was clearanced in the US several months ago it most likely is gone for good.

Just for info: Last year also in April the set was the first time gone for good. Firstly with "Call to check..", then "Sold out" and after a while it disappeared at all. After some months suddenly it was available again...

Hardrada

bp10030 said:

Hardrada said:

The Kingdoms Chess Set went to 'Sold Out' today on European S@H sites. Seeing that it was clearanced in the US several months ago it most likely is gone for good.

Just for info: Last year also in April the set was the first time gone for good. Firstly with "Call to check..", then "Sold out" and after a while it disappeared at all. After some months suddenly it was available again...

Yes, I know that last year it disappeared for several months. But this time I think it's different. My main evidence for this is that in the US it was put on a 50% off sale before it disappeared. That really looks like an EOL clearance. They don't do that with sets that are simply going on a few months hiatus till another batch is produced. (Except for WV sets but those are seasonal.)

Farmer_John

^ Drat! Why do I always seem to miss these sales????

madforLEGO

I think it was on sale very briefly before it was gone from online. I think this is another was discounted AFTER it was gone, at least in the US

prevere

Sometimes by sale they mean, ummm, like an hour, and sometimes it's a week or more.

sweetness34

Some (expletive) reseller bought the rest of the ones from the San Diego Lego store when they went on sale.

TheLoneTensor

^ They didn't go on sale, they went on clearance. It's generally accepted that when something goes on clearance, all bets are off. That doesn't mean you can't think of someone who grabs a cart full as a douchebag, but you certainly can't ever complain that you didn't get a chance to grab it prior to it disappearing. This is why I suggest that if there's a set you want, and it's 20-30% off, grab it, or feel the pain later.

Pitfall69

sweetness34 said:

Some (expletive) reseller bought the rest of the ones from the San Diego Lego store when they went on sale.

This is generally regarded as "The Reseller Thread", so a fair amount of people that post to this thread are resellers. Some obviously sell more than others, but whether they sell a little or a lot, they still resell and calling them douchebags is not very nice and offensive.

The Kingdoms Chess set had been out for almost 2 years. Although it EOL'd back in December, I still saw plenty everywhere. It also has been ON SALE a fair amount of times, so like @TheLoneTensor said, if a Lego set is for personal use, you should grab it when you can. There was plenty of time to grab this set and I'm not surprised someone bought them all on CLEARANCE.

sweetness34

I forgot what thread I was in when I posted that. But yes clearance is what I meant.

I got one at full price when they came out I was just keeping an eye on them to try and grab a cheap one for army building.