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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited April 2014
    doriansdad said:

    SSD to EOL 2014? That would be surprising.

    With the new UCS Sand Crawler coming out, I expect the SSD to go sometime this year. At $400 a pop, I just don't believe the SSD can be a good seller for TLG.
    FollowsClosely
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    SSD could have been a little more special if Lego would have integrated LED lighting within the model.
    FollowsCloselyFarmer_John
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    doriansdad said:

    SSD to EOL 2014? That would be surprising.

    There would be absolutely nothing surprising about this at all. I can't think of any set going EOL that would be less surprising than this one.

    FollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited April 2014
    mathew said:

    SSD could have been a little more special if Lego would have integrated LED lighting within the model.

    Given that the model is mostly structure and not playset, this would have been a great addition.

    And why are we feeding the troll.
    FollowsClosely
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I'm not sure how offering constructive criticism is trolling.

    It's feasible considering that Lego could have left the minifigs out and in place of the bridge left room for a couple of power bricks for powering the lights. They would need to produce string lights but those cost next to nothing.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited April 2014
    I can see how the proximity of comments might have made you think that I was referring to you @mathew, but rest assured, I wasn't. I thought your idea was genuinely good.
    FollowsClosely
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Don't worry Mat the troll is off until fall, headed for a colder climate that is needed to procure beastly profits before Lego warms up again around Thanksgiving. Be carefull with those SSD's boys - remember to use your heads and not your hearts.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    The SSD is (for me) one of those sets that I don't plan to purchase, but know I will probably regret later. Perhaps better sales would have persuaded me, but alas it is not to be. ;-)
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    mathew said:

    SSD could have been a little more special if Lego would have integrated LED lighting within the model.

    That would require a LOT of (expensive) lights. But it would certainly make for an outstanding display!
    Farmer_John said:

    The SSD is (for me) one of those sets that I don't plan to purchase, but know I will probably regret later. Perhaps better sales would have persuaded me, but alas it is not to be. ;-)

    I keep thinking the same thing. It costs quite a bit, but later when its retired and prices have skyrocketed I will probably be wondering why the hell I never purchased it even though at the time I knew I would be thinking exactly that. :o)

    Why, why, why....
    FollowsClosely
  • bp10030bp10030 Member Posts: 102
    For me the SSD is the last one of the UCS dinosaurs like #10179 and #10030. It's big, has many parts and ring booklets!! Additional it's the largest set in inch ever TLG has made.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 Member Posts: 2,101
    Funny how we all said the same thing about #10179. Too big! Too expensive! Look at it now.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    bp10030 said:

    Additional it's the largest set in inch ever TLG has made.

    Longest ;o)
    FollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    edited April 2014
    ecmo47 said:

    Funny how we all said the same thing about #10179. Too big! Too expensive! Look at it now.

    Now? It's still too big and too expensive.
    KanohiFollowsCloselypreverepharmjodmadforLEGO
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I don't see the SSD becoming the next Falcon. Size doesn't always matter. (At least that't what I tell myself.)
    FollowsCloselyBuriedinBricksPitfall69TheLoneTensorDougoutjasor
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    Somewhere I saw the best argument for buying the SSD: "Buy it, or they'll quit making anything like it!!" I think the set appeals to diehard SW fans more than AFOLs in general. It's the iconic bad guys' ship done on as grand of a scale as feasible in an official Lego set. It's tough to display, but I've seen some pretty impressive examples, and when you see it properly displayed it certainly has a "wow" factor. Some will see it as Darth's chariot, others as just a long bley blob. I'd pick one up for personal use if I could get it close to $300, but won't cry if I can't. It has loooooooong term potential (4+ years) on the aftermarket since it will likely never be done again.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I agree that the SSD is impressive in person. It's one of those sets that needs to be on display at the Lego stores for it to sell. If I may digress, that's one issue I have with the local Lego store. They tend to not display sets for very long and don't take advantage of the space that they have to display. For example, there's no reason not to have a shelf with all of the current modulars on display.
    cloaked7FollowsCloselyYodaliciousdougts
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I can see the SSD being $800 three years after it retires, but it's just not the Millennium Falcon, it's not even as good as #10030.
    FollowsClosely
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    No rare parts either (save a 1x1 round brick decorated piece). Honestly, rebuilding from BL would be really inexpensive if one had a large stock of basic bricks, plates and tiles.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    mathew said:

    I agree that the SSD is impressive in person. It's one of those sets that needs to be on display at the Lego stores for it to sell. If I may digress, that's one issue I have with the local Lego store. They tend to not display sets for very long and don't take advantage of the space that they have to display. For example, there's no reason not to have a shelf with all of the current modulars on display.

    Completely agree. so many sets that the box just doesn't sell, but you put it on display and it's like "wow". Just thinking of current sets, I'd say SSD, UCS X-Wing, Tower of Orthanc, R2-D2, Sopwith Camel, and several of the ~$100 range items from various themes.

    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I agree. The SSD is much more impressive built and on display.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    ^ I've been told that over and over. I'm sure its true but I don't even want to see it on display, as then I will certainly want to buy it.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited April 2014
    I'm not trying to talk you into it nor am I talking you out of it, but $400 is a lot to spend on any Lego set. It takes up a lot of room on display and is not as elegant as the Imperial Shuttle.

    I don't see why most UCS sets have to be ships. I would love the see an Imperial Probe droid or a series of Lego Replica Lightsabers
    timinchicago
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    I know, I didn't mean it like that. But as far as I'm concerned, the less I know about the origins of the sets/themes the better. I just can't keep up with all my LEGO interests.

    Also, what we need are more busts, like a stormtrooper Chewie, Palpatine etc.
    pharmjod
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    I would happily enjoy UCS play sets and scenes. A modular style cantina or Cloud City.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    ^ well, you can forget about the Cantina anytime soon. I'm still holding out hope for a Cloud City done up like the Death Star. Probably futile
    Pitfall69Lobot
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^Half of Empire was spent on Bespin. So many great moments happened in Cloud City. "I love you"..."I know." Whaaaat? Didn't you just kiss your brother earlier in the film? "Impressive" lightsaber duel with Luke and Vader. Hand gets wavered off and Luke finds out that Vader is his father. Impossible? I think not.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Wait, Vader is his...doh spoiler!
    LobotPitfall69pharmjodTXLegoguyjasor
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited April 2014
    * sabered.

    Funny that my autocorrect put wavered. How is Luke supposed to wave with his hand gone? ;) At least my autocorrect didn't put "testicles" again :0
    TheLoneTensorJeffHFollowsCloselyjasor
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    @Pitfall69 I was wondering about that.

    Yeah, at least you didn't say "and Luke's hand gets testicles"

    Pitfall69pharmjod
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I love it when computer software thinks it knows what you mean. Just wait until autocorrect takes over more aspects of life! (in Siri voice) "Did you say you wanted ice cream? I just checked your cholesterol and ordered you a salad. Is there anything else I may help you with?"
    Legoboyklatu003Kanohistarwarfan77YodaliciousTXLegoguyEKSamjasor
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    I'm sure there's a reason why Pitfall's phone chooses 'testicles'
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I would love to see a redo of the Yoda UCS model. I didn't care for the first one when it came out. At first I thought it was pretty cool, then I started looking at it and decided I wasn't a fan. I think that could be an awesome model that would probably sell well if done with current building techniques and a higher piece count.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    All the big UK toy shops have sold off Hobbit and LotR sets at half price.
    Are they soon to be EOL or restocked at full RRP?
  • roxioroxio Member Posts: 1,384
    ^LOTR probably done, more Hobbit sets coming..

    http://brickset.com/sets/year-2014?query=hobbit
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^I just meant the 2012 and 2013 sets.

    Are the 2H 2014 taken from the 3rd movie?
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    edited April 2014
    ....
  • ArielaAriela Member Posts: 28
    Hi all, I am new to collecting. Not sure this is the right place for this post. Your advice is very much appreciated! I will be heading down to my local lego store tomorrow, thinking to treat myself to 1 set and collect some double VIP points. Do any of you here have inside knowledge which of the following sets is going EOL first? The haunted house, VW camper van and Sopwith camel. Afraid picking the wrong one and miss out....
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    All we have our guesses and rumors that seem to change all the time. VW is the oldest of the three, but Sopwith probably the worst seller of them and at one point was pulled from the stores and went to online only, but that seemed to later reverse itself.

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,381
    Go with the one you like best!
    pharmjod
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    FollowsClosely said:

    Go with the one you like best!

    And if you like all three equally, get the most expensive (i.e. Haunted House). Not only will the others likely be cheaper on the secondary market because of their lower RRP, you'll also take better advantage of the double points.
    Pitfall69ArielaTXLegoguy
  • bricktuarybricktuary Member Posts: 987
    Get HH. It's the best.
    Pitfall69TXLegoguy
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    With the longevity of many exclusives lately, #10228 could easily be around through next year. But if you want it, get it; you won't regret it in any case.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I hope that Haunted House becomes like the Death Star - and they NEVER stop making it. I can't believe that LEGO doesn't have a whole series of Victorian houses like this. (eg: a more residential modular line)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^True, but the HH isn't a Modular design. It doesn't even fit in with the rest of the Modulars.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Sadly, guessing what will retire next is a costly thing sometimes :(
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,170
    edited April 2014
    I am very impressed with my VW camper van if that helps to sway you. It is the only Lego model that is allowed to be displayed outside the mancave, taking up a prominent place on the bookshelf of the living room - placed there by my Lego disliking wife! If you can afford the Haunted house then you should be able to buy the other 2 instead as they're each around 1/2 the price of the HH.
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,381
    ^ yep. I also would recommend you get the cheaper two as you can get many sets like the ha, but the Camel and Van are rare treats. My liking:
    Van
    Camel
    ...
    ...
    House
  • bricktuarybricktuary Member Posts: 987
    I have the camel and the hh and the hh is by far the better model.

    Also the camels are available elsewhere and have been on sale before.

    I can't see hh getting a deep discount.

    Also hh was a more enjoyable build.

    Don't misunderstand, the camel is an excellent display model too. But hh has playability and modability and even left vanilla looks great.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^Now, you have gone and broke the camels back ;)
    FollowsClosely
  • ArielaAriela Member Posts: 28
    Hi all, thank you very much for your advices. Very much appreciated. After thinking long and hard, I bought….........…....…. (drum roll)......................................................................the Haunted House!

    This is simply because all the other sets of this theme are now retired and I guess the HH may go soon or maybe not, like @Brickarmor and @brickupdate said. The Leeds store staff confirmed that only 3 sets are left (after I bought one) but I suspect they don’t hold large quantities of this set?? More importantly, I found that (as I am writing) only Amazon EU and Lego stores/online sell this set. (Amazon UK sold by 3rd parties) Checking the historical discount prices offered by Amazon EU, the cheapest price ever was £148 by .fr followed by £160 by .it (that’s 7% higher than RRP) Cheapest price ever offered by .es was £180 (20% above RRP ouch!). Thanks to @drdavewatford for the automatically updated comparison table. AFOL day coupled with double VIP points, I guess this could be the lowest price I can possibly get for a brand new set, mint box without transit damage.

    In August this year, the world will mark the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of the WW1, so I suspect TLG is smart enough to continue selling this iconic British made fighter ?? and for another 2 years?? John Lewis stocked Sopwith Camel and VW camper van, will use them to price match if opportunity arise.

    @monkeyhanger you made a good point on buying the 2 cheaper sets instead, this way it reduces the chance of missing out to 33%. Now I stand facing a 67% risk. : ~ (

    Thank you all again for your contribution. Have a pleasant day!
    brickupdateStormKitty
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