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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • mary123mary123 Member Posts: 5
    thank you so much for the information. My older boy will take it to the lego store tomorrow and will exchange it.
  • choob99choob99 Member Posts: 147
    I'm out of the loop on this one, what was wrong with the 10213?
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,918
    I'm out of the loop on this one, what was wrong with the 10213?
    10213 was targeted for an older audience and then LEGO noticed that younger children were purchasing this set so they had to make modifications to the original to make it more 'kid-friendly'.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Will the first one really be worth more because it was EOL'd? There very similar, its pretty much just a new improved version.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    One thing that should be factored in is the economic conditions around the globe. There are a lot of hurting people, and many just do not have the disposable income that they used to have (i.e., mortgage payments and groceries come before toys).

    That said, the RRP Lego is listing products at AND the amount of dollars, pounds, euros, etc. people are still paying for sets in the secondary market is as high as ever. Imagine what will happen with today's EOL'd sets if and when an economic recovery occurs? Somehow I don' think prices will be lower overall, but that's just my opinion.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @sidersdd I actually don't know how much the discount was on the Conquest Defender - I just assumed 30%, but I could be wrong.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    ^ This is one conversation
    ^^ This is another conversation
    ^^^ This is another conversation

    Does no-one know how to start a new thread round here? :o)
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,188
    They do have different names... Adventure and Expedition. I agree that this set has to be MISB to command the premium (+10 to +20%).
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    It is hard to keep up with all the talk, maybe creating a chat room would be a good idea? I made one right now, lets see what will happen.
    http://02.chat.mibbit.com/
    server is: irc.zone.ee
    channel: #legodiscussions
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    edited February 2012
    This is already a 'chat room'.
    I do wonder though if groups of seperate communities might be natrually forming.
    Mods?
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    We definitely need a 'will the secondary Market crash?' thread. This thread is crazy and needs to be EOLd itself. I remember on the elder scrolls forums (Skyrim etc) they have a maximum no of posts per thread. I think it's 9 pages or so.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think the reason this thread has so many comments is that the EOLing of sets has so many implications for AFOLs who plan to resell. Where there is a significant investment, there is more passion and likely more posts. Also, I haven't found a thread on this site or any other over 10 posts that stayed strictly on topic. I'm sure a new chat room would be no different.

    I keep looking at WM for EOL'd sets, but they seem to be keeping their prices fixed at RRP for the most part. I did get a Cars Spy Jet Escape for 1/2 off, but that was it. They have a ton of HP sets that I thought were EOL'd, but nothing on sale.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    Don't know who else is from the secondary market like myself, but I do agree with @Farmer_John as the prices I have to pay for LEGO sometimes goes way up. But things will change soon enough as TLG is opening up more stores and theme parks in my region so LEGO circulation will increase. One big market is the UAE region and its still not being penetrated as it should be. But yes prices will not be lower then what we are seeing.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    ^^ I agree, but maybe 'retiring' could be a category of the forum though rather than just single thread?

    Also a lot of the stuff in here is about other things e.g. how white are star wars etc.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    mods where are you?! We could maybe start a few new specific threads?

    'Retirement speculation & announcements'
    'Lego secondary market sustainability'

    are ones that initially spring to mind.
  • LostInTranslationLostInTranslation UKMember Posts: 5,594
    ^ I'd prefer all these topics to be confined to this thread and the other ones that already exist about the bubble breaking or Lego as investment, or I fear we'll just end up with the forum being clogged up with loads of discussions essentially discussing the same things as this one.

    I don't mind when threads go off topic to a certain extent. Sometimes you can't help it in order to answer a point made in passing. But if it deviates too much then of course the mods will split it into a new discussion. Maybe they could do that with the "colour of star destroyers" comments?
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    ^ If the threads were easier to find, people wouldnt need to keep discussing the same things, as theyd be able to find them. At the moment all the useful info from people here is lost in 36 pages of disorganised info, so we will often end up talking about the same things over and over.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    Just had a thought - maybe I should have started another thread for this :0)
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited February 2012
    Maybe we should open a thread to discuss possible topics of new threads. :)
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    whatever we do, I do think there should be a thread limit, as there are really useful bits of information in here, but it becomes impossible to find it if you let a thread go on to 350+ comments.
  • AvengerDrAvengerDr Member Posts: 453
    I just returned from visiting a mom & pop toy store. They had two Battle of Endor and a few Batman sets.. Too bad they were at RRP. I doubt they'll ever put them on sale. They even had a few CMF S4
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    The first one, Adventure, had minor build issues that made it unstable in the engine section and in the fuel tank attachment. Engine section was able to move in a realistic way, but was too unstable. Fixed it in Expedition by simplifying the movement in one direction only. In Expedition, there are now two tall black beams to help stabilize the fuel tanks, where there were not before on the Adventure. Overall Expedition is less realistic, but better build integrity than Adventure.

    As for value long term, its a toss up due to the scarcity @pcirone mentioned.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    Maybe we should open a thread to discuss possible topics of new threads. :)
    :-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    I didn't realize that the Series 5 MFs were EOL'd for some reason. Perhaps it's because of the box after box they have listed at full price at our nearby WM. With my luck after seeing them for weeks now not selling, they will be listed at 50 cents and gone before I can pick any up. It is kind of funny though, the store mgt keeps moving these 6-8 full boxes all over the store at full price, but I never see a change in number in their number.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,245
    Hi,
    What will be the better set to collect? It seemed that both are very similar in style and feature, but the price different much.
    As I recall, they were sold at the exact same price. As for which is better to collect, is it just naive for me to think this is about playability, etc? No disrespect intended, but I don't think we need a new thread every time someone wants to know if a set will gain value in it's retirement. There are 2 ongoing discussions seemingly dedicated to this topic. Please note that I will likely move this discussion there as soon as I'm able to visit the desktop version. In the meantime, feel free to carry on. :o)

  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,245
    Is this thread all over the place? YES
    Do I want to dig through 2,000 posts to clean it up? NOPE :o)

    It's easier to merge threads than split them so feel free to create any (reasonable) new threads you feel are lost in here. We will then review and decide if any additional movements are necessary. All that being said, please note that IMO we don't need an individual thread for any/every set that may retire someday or go up in value someday. This thread and the one on Speculation are perfectly fine homes for those discussions. As to the color of space ships, a potential secondary market bubble, etc., those certainly belong elsewhere.
  • tategoitategoi Member Posts: 19
    Most of what have been discussed here are relevant to the thread subject, a little of out-of-topic discussion is inevitable, but overall this thread still retained the flavor EOL sets.

    I am still undecided whether to buy the MMV and the 3 winter villages.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Yellowcastle - sorry about the off-topic ship color posts... I will say however they are not "space ships", they are "starships". ;)

    @tategoi - you don't have MMV? What are you waiting for??? Then again, I guess someone needs to wait to buy one of mine once it is retired. ;)
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Im starting to think about getting the winter villages, but then again I can't have every set that interests me. :)
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    I hadn't heard that 10231 was EOL'd. I almost bought one today. I guess I should go back and pick it up.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    10231 isn't EOL, it is 10213 that is EOL...
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    Thanks LFT.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited February 2012
    One question I have that I don't know the answer to...

    Was Lego this "collectible" even 10 years ago? 20 years ago? Prior to the past 5 years or so, did anyone care "nearly" this much about all this?

    Or is this recent?
    I'm going to sound patronizing, and don't mind a little bit if I do because I found this question both disappointing and insulting.

    Yes, LEGO as a collectible hobby existed long before you started participating. Yes, people cared a great deal about LEGO prior to whatever current level you are witnessing.

    I bring attention to my uncertainty of your perspective because, despite finding that you often have keen insight, it's hard for me to believe that you could not know the answer to your question if you've spent even a small fraction of your time here digesting what's been posted by others on the forum or looking at the resources available on Brickset.

    If you were paying attention, you'd realize that there are life-long collectors among us whose collections number in the thousands of unique sets and span the last half century.

    Is there any other way that images, instructions, and inventories of nearly every LEGO set ever produced could have been collected and made available when the company itself didn't strive to keep these records?

    AFOLs connected and the community emerged since the dawn of the internet. LEGO listings on eBay numbered between 30k-50k as early as 2000. I didn't start using Bricklink until 2003, but at that time, there were already thousands of stores across the world.

    I, like many others, have been buying and selling LEGO to supplement the cost of the hobby for well over a decade, so I understand and appreciate its treatment as a commodity and investment vehicle. I continue to support the buying and selling topics on this forum because I think it's an integral part of the hobby.

    But please, everyone, don't allow your focus to become so single-minded such that the other aspects of the hobby -- which many members hold dear -- are dominated and overshadowed.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I'm going to sound patronizing, and don't mind a little bit if I do because I found this question both disappointing and insulting.
    No insult was intended, it was an honest question.

    However, rereading it, I can see how you took it that way, I did not use the right words, my phrasing could have used a rewrite.
    Yes, LEGO as a collectible hobby existed long before you started participating. Yes, people cared a great deal about LEGO prior to whatever current level you are witnessing.
    What I *should* have said was:

    "Has the volume and quantity of Lego being purchased for resale by future collectors at this level 10 or 20 years ago, or is the volume of sets and dollar amounts being spent by resellers for future collectors happening at this scale in the past"

    That was more what I meant, and I didn't say it that way...

    I am well aware that Lego collectors have been around for a long time, as you say, pictures and instructions and other information about sets from 20+ years ago is pretty easy to find because of that.

    I was focused on the volume purchase of current production sets for the sole purpose of future resale. Why? Because if that is new, and it is actually being done by more than a few people on this forum, then it means we are forming our own bubble.
    I, like many others, have been buying and selling LEGO to supplement the cost of the hobby for well over a decade, so I understand and appreciate its treatment as a commodity and investment vehicle. I continue to support the buying and selling topics on this forum because I think it's an integral part of the hobby.
    I understand this, however there is buying and selling to supplement the cost of a hobby, then there is buying and selling thousands of sets that end up in storage units for the purpose of making real money.

    So my question is, has the latter being going on for more than the past 5 years?
    But please, everyone, don't allow your focus to become so single-minded such that the other aspects of the hobby -- which many members hold dear -- are dominated and overshadowed.
    I love Lego, I have a room full of it, three closets full of it, and now a storage unit full of it. I just spent this morning building AT-TE while my son built the new TIE Fighter next to me, my wife is working on the VW Camper...

    So we love Lego... But the money counts too, which is why I asked the question... What I don't want is to end up with $100K worth of Lego in storage, only to find it doesn't go up in value because of a bubble that burst. I thought that was a fair question to ask...

    Build on! :)
  • Great_small76Great_small76 Member Posts: 23
    Rocao. I thought LegoFanTexas made a valid question in the first instance - so to state 'insulting' is a little over the top in my opinion. Show me the evidence that "collections number in the thousands of unique sets and span the last half century". LegoFanTexas I find your comments to be of great interest to me - as I do of many other contributers. I just wish I had the space that you have generated for collectables as nearly all of my room is taken up my Emerald Nights :-)

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    As a fairly new AFOL'er, I don't know why Lego doesn't just re-release Cafe Corner and the other modular sets. There's obviously a market for them and they're not tied to a pop-culture theme like Indiana Jones or Harry Potter.
  • mary123mary123 Member Posts: 5
    all investments have their risk...investing in lego is like any other investment; this is why we have short and long term investments. If you invest in the right lego item, then we end up with a win/win situation...otherwise our profit is just limited to our short term investment.. I do too, have a storage full of collectibles (only 10% are lego) and I've been collecting since the 80's and have been in business since 1996. Regarding collectibles, long term investments should not exceed more than 5-7 yrs to reduce the chance of loss
  • Great_small76Great_small76 Member Posts: 23
    Lego may be trying to find a balance between period of production and the after sales market - so that they have a decent balance between collectors and those wanting to build. If they re-released sets I would imagine it would have an influence on the original after-sales value of the original sets - hence limiting the collectors market. Saying that their must be 'the odd' product that could be re-released at this moment in time, such as the Taj Mahal - as the after market sales have been incremented so much. Maybe Lego will go down the route of extended the life of their products more instead of re-producing? They seem to have done this with the Fire Brigade - which I have been subjectively told will EOL next year. Although having a read through maybe this was due to the faulty batch they had - thus this allowing people to return any faulty batches.
  • Great_small76Great_small76 Member Posts: 23
    Would be interesting to see what happens to the after sales market for Emerald night and Imperial Flagship in 5-7 years. Wish I could keep hold of mine for that length of time - the return they give after being discontinued around Dec 11 is incredible. Nearly 3 fold for Emerald Night and 2 fold for Imperial shuttle - based on ebay in the UK.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    @LegoFanTexas - Insofar as your reworded question is concerned, I've been collecting LEGO since I was five years old and from about seventeen or so, I've been funding the hobby almost exclusively through the sale of older sets I didn't want any longer and, more recently, sets I bought with the intention of reselling after retirement. At least as far back as 1997, the popular LEGO sets have always performed phenomenally well post-retirement. I was actually able to sell a used Black Seas Barracuda in 1999 to fund my purchase of the entire line of OT Star Wars sets that year. But the BSB is a good example of sets sinking back down in value over time. What I was able to get nearly $450 for in 1999 is only worth about $200 now.

    To that end, I don't see LEGO's overall aftermarket value dropping anytime soon (there are individual over- and underachievers, of course), but it's also a good idea for some of the 'long term' investors to stay mindful of the fact that any given sets value isn't going to go up forever, and sometimes it really is better to sell a set early after retirement rather than hoping that the value will skyrocket ten years after a sets EOL.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    I do get that you love LEGO, and I didn't intend to single you out with that so I addressed everyone more broadly.

    I think the phenomenon of reselling as we know it today sprang forth from eBay and was galvanized by the myriad of deals websites and forums. And this applies to nearly any product, not just LEGO. From the discount racks at Macy's to wholesale golf clubs, people suddenly found they could make a viable living buying discounted merchandise and selling to a global audience.

    With respect to LEGO: yes, there were re-sellers then just as there are now. Back then there were far more instances of old collections being purchased at garage sales and resold because the value of LEGO was still being established; back then so many parents with grown children were looking to unload 'junk', whereas nowadays, it is much fewer and farther between where you'll find someone that doesn't have the wherewithal to do a quick web search for valuation or doesn't have a friend who will inform them.

    But the trend was still the same then as it is now. The majority of sets will climb in value quickly once retired, just as stocks have momentum and people want to buy before it climbs higher. For a few very special sets, the prices reach stratospheric levels. There are already threads identifying the common characteristics of these sets, so I won't expand on it here.

    Meanwhile, most sets plateau at a level where buyers generally won't pay any higher and sellers don't want to risk losing an easy sale by testing the next price barrier. Again, just like stocks, there are re-sellers that look to exit their positions sooner than others so the composition of the market also factors into how prices might stick or jump. From my observation, the rapid ascent slows to a plateau generally between 1-3 years after retirement. From there, some sets -- maybe they're "better" models, maybe just more rare -- will still still creep upwards, but not at the same rate. The others will slowly trend down as demand is satisfied and interest wanes. Yet there just aren't many instances of sets where one stands to lose money, and that's why I am and have always been bullish on LEGO as an investment. I've seen the examples of a couple often cited sets that are selling at or slightly below original MSRP years after retirement. However, in all those cases, I remember that they were widely available at deep discount, so most people selling those in quantity are still making money.

    To this day, I have yet to lose money on a single set I intended to resell, and I've sold sets large and small from both popular and unpopular themes. Of course, some do better than others, but if you predominately buy LEGO at discounted prices, it's just so hard to go wrong because the sets still have element value, whether or not YOU are the one parting it out.

    Now, naturally, if people are taking on more risk like buying at higher price points and from other resellers' exit points, such that artificiality is introduced into the valuation, then, sure, a bubble is forming.

    But I still think all this activity is fueled by real demand. It's ultimately a very fun, high quality product that appeals to all ages for a multitude of reasons. It certainly has a lot more intrinsic value than cardstock with athletes' photos on them. With no major competition in sight, I think the LEGO company is the only entity that could really saturate and destroy the market, but they obviously will protect their interests.
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    rocao, if I may ask where do you resell your legos, and do you only sell sets or parts and minifigs also?
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited February 2012
    Show me the evidence that "collections number in the thousands of unique sets and span the last half century".
    I was actually referring to the collections of several others whose are about twice as large as mine, but I think mine still applies:
    http://www.brickset.com/search/?ownedBy=rocao
    I have only entered about 60% of my collection.

    With LFT's restatement, it's clear that no offense was intended, but as it was vague before, yes, I think it could be construed as insulting. It's not a perfect analogy (hides from Yellowcastle), but in my mind, it was like showing up late to one's own dissertation, sharing it, and then asking the committee whom has been conducting research in the same field for the past 10 years if anyone cared about the subject prior to him pursuing his degree.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    I think the phenomenon of reselling as we know it ..
    Fantastic post, very informative.

  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,245
    This is an analogy-free zone. ;o)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Any thoughts on how long the Technic Unimog will be out? I have $70 VIP dollars and want to wait for free shipping to get one. However, I don't want to miss the boat (pardon the pun) like I did when I missed the Maersk Container Ship, which was out less than a year.

    As a side, when is the next free shipping offer typically from Lego?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    @Farmer_John, I haven't been into LEGOS like most of the forum, but from my limited experience it seems that Techics go EOL sooner than some other themes. I am curious in general and in a broader sense, if certain themes average having their sets stay current shorter/longer than others?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited February 2012
    ^^I doubt if anyone (besides lofty Lego employees) actually knows when there will be free shipping next. Everytime I call I ask and they don't know. If someone else on here does know for sure I would be glad to hear.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    @cloaked7 - Another related question is whether lego sets are EOL'd more at certain times of the year than other times? We all know that BF sales typically lead of a barrage of EOL'ding of sets. I think it would be interesting to see the statistic from the Brickset database on a couple things related to this thread:

    1) A list of the months (in descending order) that experience the most EOLing of sets by Lego.
    2) The same list as above only on a per Theme basis.

    That would be a very interesting analysis (if I had access to the database). ;-)

    P.S. Statistics can provide so many insights into the behavior of Lego, etc..
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I'm bullish on the Mog but haven't bought any to date. Imo, its too new and there are other sets that appear to be retiring sooner. If I had unlimited funds I would buy a bunch at the next good opportunity. But I think its always best to buy what "appears" to be retiring first. TUOM
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