Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Brickarmor

@pitfall69 Yes, Amazon, butt also at Target.

Pitfall69

Well, I butt er put some money ass ide, so I can buy a few.

CircleK

#76004 looked much better when Venom was exclusive. The Juniors release may hold it back some. I have a few.

Pitfall69

A few things:

What are your thoughts about the new Arctic Theme? Does anyone think this will drum up interest in the old Arctic sets?

I'm thinking about unloading my UCS Millennium Falcon. Has it reached its peak or is the sky still the limit?

Do people really think The Lego Movie has people coming out if their Dark Ages to buy Lego sets?

Bumblepants

Pitfall69 said:

A few things:

What are your thoughts about the new Arctic Theme? Does anyone think this will drum up interest in the old Arctic sets?

I'm thinking about unloading my UCS Millennium Falcon. Has it reached its peak or is the sky still the limit?

Do people really think The Lego Movie has people coming out if their Dark Ages to buy Lego sets?

Not really and Probably Yes and Yes. So trade me your UCS Falcon for my old Arctic sets. I even have a few extra green and blue Arctic minifigs I will throw in to sweeten the deal!

mathew

Pitfall69 said:

What are your thoughts about the new Arctic Theme? Does anyone think this will drum up interest in the old Arctic sets?

I think it's a cool theme that unfortunately due to it being 'City' is kind of juniorized. I may pick up the Base Camp when it goes on sale and modify it a bit.

Pitfall69

The new Polar Bear is a must.

madforLEGO

I think the Arctic sets are nice, but I will wait to see if they go on discount (I'm guessing they will). Is TRU or anyone going to have an exclusive set for this line?

rancorbait

^^ Not ass much of a must ass the new dewback! ;o)

Pitfall69

^Well, of course the Dewback :)

Pitfall69

rancorbait said:

^^ Not ass much of a must ass the new dewback! ;o)

"Back door, huh? Good idea!"

vasp

wm has a few technic sets at about 20% off
•LEGO Technic Rock Crawler Building Set $159.99
•LEGO Technic Mobile Crane MK II Building Set $173.58
•LEGO Technic Service Truck Building Set $98.56

Jawascrump

Apologies that this isn't yoga related (!) but, what is the concencous of opinion on #70503? I managed to score 3 for £13.99. Wondering if I should grab some more as it's 44% off and maybe will EOL soonish?
Fwiw I have zero interest in Ninjago, but I've seen great growth on sets like the Ice Dragon and Lightening Dragon...

CCC

I doubt it will go up like the other dragons. I think the current amazon deal means quite a number are being stored up.

They had over 500 at that price earlier, 84 still left. I'm willing to bet most of those bought today are for resale.

stevemack

2521 Went 2.5 years ago and it sells just over retail now..

RomanticWarrior

Honey!! Where are my yoga pants??

BuriedinBricks

#70503 has consistently been about $25 or below since last summer, minus when Amazon was out of stock around the holidays. I don't think it will do poorly after it goes away, but I tend to agree that there are a lot of them tucked away for resale already.

EDIT: After seeing the current UK price, I would not hesitate to pick up a few at that steep of a discount.

CCC

CCC said:

They had over 500 at that price earlier, 84 still left. I'm willing to bet most of those bought today are for resale.

Now 85 left. Who cancelled? :-)

Farmer_John

Is the Ninjago theme still a viable aftermarket opportunity? My kids are still into SW and SH, but their interest in Ninjago has waned over the past year. Just curious...

pharmjod

I personally am not buying it, but that is out of a lack of interest that I have in the theme. I still have a stack of epic dragon battles that I can't move at $99 with free shipping.

binaryeye

pharmjod said:

I still have a stack of epic dragon battles that I can't move at $99 with free shipping.

Not surprising, considering Amazon has had that set at $80-$90 since early January.

dragonhawk

Has CN started airing the new season of Ninjago yet ?
My son saw the new Mechdragon on display at LEGO store and he was not really impressed by it.

joch29

^2 new episodes aired early this month

pharmjod

Not surprising, considering Amazon has had that set at $80-$90 since early January.
Yeah I know. I have thought about lowering the price just to move them and take a little loss. I just don't see the set rising much above RRP and that will only be after it is long gone from all retail outlets. One of my misfires for sure. I had no idea the set would linger as long as it has.

Brickarmor

^If that set had retired any time last year it might have still done fairly well. Looks pretty bleak as it is. #9446 looked like a "sure thing" too and it's still not even close to 2x RRP. Honestly both are really cool sets on their own merits: a four-headed dragon and a dragon ship are pretty unique. Of course we have no idea what the reception of the new season will be like, but I don't expect much.

nkx1

^Just like many people have mentioned previously, there is still room for profit, even if EOL sets don't perform as anticipated. For instance, I bought all of my #9446 sets for about $65 (a somewhat modest discount) and sold them all for $140ish. So I still made a profit of at least $35 each after fees/shipping. What is worth my time? I think so. $35 for about 20 minutes of very easy work isn't half bad.

graphite

^ I only bought 2 #9446 but got them at ~$37 and sold within few months for $100. Could have held out for more but I was happy. 154% profit after fees.

bricktuary

Having only just cracked mine open tonight, I can see #79111 doing very well. Trains are always popular and it's a good play set too with a good set of minifigs.

madforLEGO

The key to 79111 doing well is the fact it is a true LEGO scale train (unlike the ghost train) with track. Will it go for crazy money? Consider TRU still has them for 119 (or whatever their ridiculous price is now) and many many people bought these are 60 or lower I would say that they may not go up as much as people think. Will they do well relative to what the may have cost people of they got them for 40-50% off? Sure, but if you are talking these hitting 200 I will say that while anything is possible, I think it is unlikely the more I think about it

CCC

The Ghost Train was fairly unique in not being a real train. Most trains do run on track without modification. #79111 will have a problem rising if lego release another steam train, like a sister train to EN. Especially if it takes power functions as part of the design (whether included in the set or not).

TheLoneTensor

madforLEGO said:

The key to 79111 doing well is the fact it is a true LEGO scale train (unlike the ghost train) with track. Will it go for crazy money? Consider TRU still has them for 119 (or whatever their ridiculous price is now) and many many people bought these are 60 or lower I would say that they may not go up as much as people think. Will they do well relative to what the may have cost people of they got them for 40-50% off? Sure, but if you are talking these hitting 200 I will say that while anything is possible, I think it is unlikely the more I think about it

I think $200 is a reasonable plateau, given that it's a full train playset with track - heck, price out the driver wheels, trucks and couplers alone and there's good value in this set simply for those parts. It has the not-easy-to-motorize aspect going against it, but offsetting that is the fact that it's a really nice looking (and as many have pointed out, not-toy-looking) western train, which makes it 100% unique (the Toy Story train doesn't exist in this dojo). Plus, it has an adorable version of one of the most violently destructive projectile weapons ever created by man. What's not to love?

As for competition, I don't see Lego revisiting the old west for trains again so soon. If they did a steamer next - and they should, since they already did the sexy European EN, I would think a big black American locomotive from the 30's or 40's would be next on the block.

And poor, poor Ghost Train. I still don't see what they were thinking making the carriages like they did. I get the flapping thing might have been more difficult on PF tracks, but to not make it compatible with your own system Lego, for shame.

FollowsClosely

I am still comfortable with my $150 bet on #79111 by Christmas bet. It just needs to go, and go soon.

Farmer_John

I think #79111 will hit $150...maybe by Christmas. It is probably one of the more diverse train sets that has been offered. It has several minifigures (with weapons), uses regular tracks, can be modified to include power functions, has a decent color scheme, came at a reasonable price point, wasn't available all that long, and...hey, it's a train. Additionally, it's perfect for some pretty neat MOCs including a BTTF 3 mock up.

Someone mentioned the EN above, but #79111 and the EN just seem like two different markets to me.

Pitfall69

^Different markets and different time periods.

hendrikdejager

Quote going around:

So, this is just a rumor at this point, I have no way of verifying it, however
someone very reliable from Denmark emailed me that there is going to be a re-release
of the UCS Millennium Falcon either at the end of 2014 or early 2015.

He wasn't sure if it was going to be exactly the same as the previous release
(I think that's unlikely, but you never know with LEGO) or a new design,
but it was going to be an UCS set similar to this: http://www.bricklink.com/catalogItem.asp?S=10179-1

If this is true, i call it the end of our business model.

LegoFanTexas

I have no doubt that UCS Falcon will get redone at some point. Will it be that soon? Maybe, but I'd expect it to be closer to 10 years. Maybe even a 10 year anniversary event. 4 years is really quick for something like that, it only went out in May of 2010.

CCC

^ Not really. Even if you have eight year gaps between similar models, then people will want them in the meantime so there is still an opportunity for reselling. And there is no guarantee that every UCS set will be remade.

FollowsClosely

The USC falcon will new redone, I agree. The release will not be linked to an anniversary of a lego set. It will be tied to a movie release or anniversary of a movie release. I do need to sell the few I have left. Anyone want a well cared for used USC falcon for 2k shipped?

bricktuary

I'm sure it will be redone. I'm not so sure what the impact will be on the original's price.

Not a perfect analogy but people still collect the Beatles original vinyl pressings despite CDs coming out.

It could lead to an increase in interest.

doriansdad

hendrikdejager said:

Quote going around:

So, this is just a rumor at this point, I have no way of verifying it, however

Chasing rainbows again are we?

mathew

bricktuary said:

Not a perfect analogy but people still collect the Beatles original vinyl pressings despite CDs coming out.

As a former audiophile I can safely say that vinyl, especially well pressed and taken care of can sound much better than a CD. I used to own Sgt. Pepper on vinyl and there is no comparison to the CD. It's like technicolor vs. b&w.

rancorbait

^^ Indeed, apparently there is a pot of gold at the end ;o)

The likelihood of the falcon being re-released is quite high in my opinion, being such an iconic vehicle, I'm surprised they didn't release a new one instead of the X-wing last year. I don't know why they would wait 10 years to release a new one, there is obviously high demand for one, and I can't see how sales would vary from now to 6 years later, unless of course the price was that much higher.

mathew

I have a good feeling that the new films will feature the falcon. My guess is that we'll see a 2015 release.

wagnerml2

They've reprinted the 1952 topps Mickey Mantle on many occasions. Only the original holds its value. It's the rarity and authenticity of the object that matters to the collector. The original #10179 will always hold its value. It was Lego's version of the '52 Mantle

dougts

I highly doubt they will re-release the 10179.

I find it quite likely that they will release a large scale MF at some point, but completely redesigned. (think 7191 and 10240)

cheshirecat

I would love to see 10179 rereleased as an exact copy, it would cheer me up no end, But also suspect that whilst a new UCS MF is likely at somepoint soonish it probably won't be a rerelease and probably will be smaller.

With the system MF surely due to go soon having a UCS falcon to take its place might make sense. Perhaps it replaces the death star.

Bumblepants

mathew said:

I have a good feeling that the new films will feature the falcon. My guess is that we'll see a 2015 release.

Spoiler Alert Yeah there was a recent photo published by Lucasfilm of the Ep7 guys gathered around a table with several pre-production type photos on the wall behind them including one with the Falcon barely visible. Almost certain to be in the film.

I am betting on a large new Lego Falcon that will not be packaged as 'UCS' but will be similar enough in size to spawn 3-5 pages of heated forum debate as to whether or not it is truly 'UCS'.

nkx1

It sort of makes sense that a new Falcon would be released, since the existing System-scale version is getting pretty long in the tooth. Obviously a UCS Falcon wouldn't be an exact replacement, but at least there would be some version available directly from Lego without a significant gap in availability.

monkeyhanger

cheshirecat said:

I would love to see 10179 rereleased as an exact copy, it would cheer me up no end, But also suspect that whilst a new UCS MF is likely at somepoint soonish it probably won't be a rerelease and probably will be smaller.

With the system MF surely due to go soon having a UCS falcon to take its place might make sense. Perhaps it replaces the death star.

If you really want one, don't underestimate the appeal of bricklinking one - it's like a 6 month build! Also, if you have plenty of the right parts in the wrong colours, almost none of the framework and bottom skin of the plating is seen on the finished article.

doriansdad

I highly doubt TLG will release any set with a retail price of greater than $399 USD anytime soon. System scale Falcon is a certainty, UCS scale Falcon not so much.