Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

roxio

#2150 station is king IMO

prevere

Huh, I didn't realize they made a red and yellow version of the same station.

They really need to do a killer train station, or a new Train Engine Shed would be fine by me, and is long overdue.

madforLEGO

I like #2150 / #4554
#7822
#7824

The newer stations are OK, #7997 harkens back to #7822. Just like the new one I think harkens back to #7824

TheLoneTensor

Oh yeah, I forgot about that other passenger bridge station. When you look at these all at once like this, the fact that there are at least two sets that are near carbon copies of previous sets is a little embarassing design-wise.

MathBuilder

When talking about these all-isomorphic train-stations we might as well be talking about police-stations or fire-stations. Except for the last category there is fire brigade as queen. Naturally, the solution to all our problems is in one word: Modular.

nkx1

^Some of the train stations are similar, but some are very different in design from one another. I don't see how that makes them all isomorphic (aka the same or similar). Also, I don't recall there being a modular train station. :) Although, I would definitely purchase one if there was!

MathBuilder

^It was meant as an exaggeration! A more accurate statement would have been all of the above stations can be partitioned into 3 or 4 equivalence classes most of them containing more than one element. A shorter statement would be look at mad's post to see what I meant. In any case my point is that we Do Not have a police and train station in the modular series, but we do have the fire brigade. If LEGO were to release a modular train station it would be the queen of all the variants we are presently discussing. At least we can both agree with your last sentence! :)

Pitfall69

prevere said:

Huh, I didn't realize they made a red and yellow version of the same station.

They really need to do a killer train station, or a new Train Engine Shed would be fine by me, and is long overdue.

Yup. I built a the red version from spare bricks. Love the windows.

Pitfall69

Took me awhile to find a decent pic.

pharmjod

I would love to see a train Circle Yard which I guess falls under the Train Engine Shed. Could be pretty epic. Make it modular quality, 3000+ pieces maybe?

KiwiLegoMeister

Pitfall69 said:

Took me awhile to find a decent pic.

Don't quite know how to tell you this, but your station doesn't look anything like the picture! ;)

nkx1

Great pic there, Pitfall69. I wish they re-issued the Santa Fe Train engine and cars, or released something equivalent (retro-style train). Stuff like the Horizon Express is nice, but the Santa Fe train sets are really cool looking. I'm too cheap to pay aftermarket prices for it!

Pitfall69

KiwiLegoMeister said:

Pitfall69 said:

Took me awhile to find a decent pic.

Don't quite know how to tell you this, but your station doesn't look anything like the picture! ;)

That painting is of a old Train Station in Ann Arbor, Michigan. They turned it into a restaurant.

Pitfall69

nkx1 said:

Great pic there, Pitfall69. I wish they re-issued the Santa Fe Train engine and cars, or released something equivalent (retro-style train). Stuff like the Horizon Express is nice, but the Santa Fe train sets are really cool looking. I'm too cheap to pay aftermarket prices for it!

Not too cheap. They are just too expensive :) There are a lot of unique parts like the windows on the engine. I think they are like $15-20 on Bricklink.

lulwut

Ronyar said:

Any thoughts on #60021 Cargo Heliplane? You can get it at Amazon for $33 right now, or at Walmart for $25 if you are lucky enough to find it on sale. I normally don't buy City sets, but was wondering if this was unique enough to be worth buying and holding?

Every City set I've bought for 50% off, I have always made a 100% return during Christmas...except for the Police Station. And the fact that this set (Heliplane) is a first of its kind, I wouldn't have hesitated picking them all up at half off.

SuperTramp

Will Jabba's Sailbarge and Gunship still be around for a while?

Keep meaning to pick a couple up.

vitreolum

Yes, they will definitely be around for a while, it's not even a year since they are out.

roxio

^^ at least another 12 months. I've gone in quite heavy already on the sailbarge - bit early for my liking but at £48.50 it could not be ignored.

jumalichi

The 10027 "Train engine shed" was a great model from the the World city theme. A reedition or an extansion of that model would be great ! I love this set... This model is very expensive in the secondary market.

Dougout

^Yes, it is a good set, with the popularity of Lego trains I'm sure we will see something like it again at some point. No telling when though...... :(

madforLEGO

LEGO trains had its last heyday back in the early 2000's. I doubt LEGO now will do much more than a freight train, passenger train, and station.. Mixing in the occasional utility vehicle for the line. It has been that way for some time and unless they get a train fanatic back into some role of power I do not see that changing soon.
I am excluding the creator line as that is not City theme, but could also explain why no other special city train sets are out besides these.

Pitfall69

As popular as Lego trains are, I don't see why TLG doesn't do more with the system.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

As popular as Lego trains are, I don't see why TLG doesn't do more with the system.

You are 'preaching to the choir'. However, i think LEGO views train as a bit expensive. In the past when they have done train cars they have not sold that well. Not as well as normal city anyway. As a result you see few train sets other than the 'standard' ones.
train being expensive was also one of the main reasons why they went to RC and IR now, they had to outsource the 9volt engine and track I believe.

prevere

Train bridge, Mountain passway (3x Silver Mine Shootouts together more or less), railyard, etc. would be nice.

I just think the idea of "Ultimate Collector Series or Sculptures" sets should apply to other themes, like train.

TheLoneTensor

I am still waiting for my Technic flagship Berkshire steam locomotive with power functions.

I really want an Allegheny, but that's just plain wishing.

prevere

Have we ever had a Technic train?

jcb193

Yeah, I won't be able to finish off my Lego Creator city block until they offer a Creator monorail.

prevere

Lego is soooooo missing the boat on a new city monorail with battery power from the train (say in conjunction with a Modular City Center Hub). Not that the city theme is lacking, but it would bring a lot of new people in for custom layouts.

madforLEGO

Not to drag this into the 'bring back monorail' thread but I think there are cost prohibitions here with doing Monorail.
People tend to forget how expensive these sets were in 80's and 90's dollars.
I believe that 6991 was around 175 and that was back in 90's bucks. I think 6399 was more.
People also tend to forget that they are somewhat rare because not many people bought these back then. I doubt they would sell many more now than then to be honest/./
It would be the Legends line all over again with LEGO likely needing to discount them to rid themselves of them. While that may be great for AFOLs it make little business sense

mathew

madforLEGO said:

It would be the Legends line all over again with LEGO likely needing to discount them to rid themselves of them. While that may be great for AFOLs it make little business sense

Legends was released ten years too soon. Ahead of its time so to speak. Release a Legends line today and I guarantee that it sells 10x more.

I'm amazed that anyone on this forum thinks that the Lego market today is the same as it was fifteen years ago. Fifteen years ago an adult who collected Lego would have been viewed as a weirdo. Today, it's the plot of The Lego Movie.

madforLEGO

mathew said:

madforLEGO said:

It would be the Legends line all over again with LEGO likely needing to discount them to rid themselves of them. While that may be great for AFOLs it make little business sense

Legends was released ten years too soon. Ahead of its time so to speak. Release a Legends line today and I guarantee that it sells 10x more.

I'm amazed that anyone on this forum thinks that the Lego market today is the same as it was fifteen years ago. Fifteen years ago an adult who collected Lego would have been viewed as a weirdo. Today, it's the plot of The Lego Movie.

Agree to disagree. The more things change the more they stay the same.
Legends would be the same as it was. While a there would be a group that would buy (and likely a ton of resellers) the majority of people would not pay for 10 year old sets regardless of when this occurs.
Again there is a wide difference of Legends vs existing City and SW and Ninjago which make HUGES amounts for LEGO and sells vast numbers.
Legends would not do this and likely LEGO would need to sell these at discount if they re-released them and their run ended.LEGO is not about losing money.

Dougout

With the profits TLG has had recently, a growing market of AFOLS, and the appeal that monorails have I don't see why they wouldn't do another monorail. There is certainly potential to make a lot of money and bring in many more customers at the same time, they just need to do it right. They could use the train engines to power the monorail and use already existing parts to make the track.

It's a no-brainer for me, make the one thing the AFOLS always talk about wanting but never being able to have. Think about all the extra bricks monorailers will have to buy to build up their skyscrapers around the rail.

Farmer_John

^

madforLEGO said:

LEGO is not about losing money.

I can tell you with certainty that they lost a lot of my money...especially since last June/July when they quit providing discounts on exclusive sets.

madforLEGO

Farmer_John said:

^

madforLEGO said:

LEGO is not about losing money.

I can tell you with certainty that they lost a lot of my money...especially since last June/July when they quit providing discounts on exclusive sets.

Ok, But that can be reversed. If LEGO makes a ton of sets that sit around and have to be discounted, then they are not going to do it.

Poochy

Dougout said:

With the profits TLG has had recently, a growing market of AFOLS, and the appeal that monorails have I don't see why they wouldn't do another monorail.

Granted, this was almost a year ago, but somehow I don't think the number of AFOLs has increased that much since then: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/57950/#Comment_57950. The whole thread is interesting as well.

nkx1

Farmer_John said:

I can tell you with certainty that they lost a lot of my money...especially since last June/July when they quit providing discounts on exclusive sets.

Same here. I've only purchased a single exclusive set since then (Horizon Express), and that was because I eked out a pseudo discount by getting a free set with purchase from TRU. I still purchased numerous other sets that were discounted during the same period.

Regarding the Legends debate and financial feasibility, I feel that you can't really have a meaningful discussion about the subject unless you take into consideration the earnings of TLG then and now. According to TLG's income statement for 2002 versus 2012, TLG earned over 7 times more profit in 2012 than in 2002 (not adjusted for inflation). One cannot simply cannot ignore the fact that Lego is much more popular now than it was then, as proven by the numbers. When taking this into consideration, it's plausible a Legends "theme" today would be quite successful, and might make financial sense. Of course, no one, not even TLG, truly knows how successful a present-day Legends theme would be until consumers vote with their wallets. I know I would probably buy every large Legends set released (assuming I could get at least a slight discount), but that's just me.

See for yourself:
https://aboutus.lego.com/en-us/lego-group/annual-report

Disclaimer: I'm not an accountant; I'm just a lay person that tries to be informed to some degree. It's possible, though unlikely, I may have misinterpreted the financials.

Dougout

Poochy said:

Dougout said:

With the profits TLG has had recently, a growing market of AFOLS, and the appeal that monorails have I don't see why they wouldn't do another monorail.

Granted, this was almost a year ago, but somehow I don't think the number of AFOLs has increased that much since then: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/57950/#Comment_57950. The whole thread is interesting as well.

I remember that discussion, it was of Nabii to comment.

I still have hope for monorails. Lego claims to have a barely enough kids interested in trains to do them, yet they continue putting new ones out almost every year.

Reasons given why monorails can't exist are:

1) Motors/track ran out, expensive to replace
2) The first ones never made money
3) Kids aren't interested, not enough AFOLS

I don't think reason 1 is a problem if the monorails are made with the existing train motors, just a bit modified, and the track is made out of existing pieces. I think reason 2 is the main reason why they aren't redone. They never sold well because the prices were so high. That could be fixed if they used existing pieces and didn't have to pay for new molds. I don't see reason 3 as a problem at all. If parents buy trains for kids why wouldn't they buy monorails instead?

...and if 2 and 3 are a problem then I don't see how we have $150+ flagship sets all the time with two $400 sets. Times are different now then when monorails first came out.

It's not too much to ask for TLG to try a 7 set monorail theme with 3 monorail sets and 4 others that could easily mix in with the city theme.

What MOCers do with huge engineering/construction models has great soft appeal for LEGO and what Lego and AFOLs could do with monorails would do wonders for the company.

Disney greatly needs a replacement monorail for their monorail toys in their theme park shops, the ones they have now don't look fun at all. Work out a deal there and sell even more monorails.

cheshirecat

I also heard that its not so much that they've run out of parts but that the monorail engine was iffy in QA, many never left the factory. If they use the same system they have all the power going through one small cog, presumably that's part of the issue and may well mean that the train engine can't be used.

I was fortunate enough to get to build and play with #6990 over christmas. It was the first time I've seen a monorail in the flesh since looking at it in the shop as a young boy. From an emotional point of view it was amazing - I desperately wanted that set as a kid and playing with it now brought back all manor of memories.

But and it's a really big but it actually wasn't that great by today's standards. It goes at one speed and it's pretty slow. The reversing mechanism is really cool and you can see how in the 80s it was novel but with remote controlled trains zipping around next to it it's actually quite tame. The reality is that the monorail really doesn't do much. Even back in the 80s the thought struck me 'why have spacemen built a monorail when they all have flying jet bikes?'. The same would be true now in real life, why have Lego built a monorail. It's not like they're new tech that's popping up everywhere. They're a play thing from decades ago (the Disney one doesn't impress much when you've travelled on one getting from the Orlando airport terminal, in fact the best thing about the Disney one is the hotel built over it) which probably have little impression on kids today beyond the excitement we pass on as we remenis our youth. The reality is its a good display piece that actually has less play value than the trains.

What would differentiate the monorail released today from the train system? Just one big fat rail rather than two skinny ones? Elevation changes? Most Lego play happens at one level anyway. I just don't see the benefit of rereleasing it for Lego. A maglev or something yes but that ain't happening.

mathew

cheshirecat said:

But and it's a really big but it actually wasn't that great by today's standards. It goes at one speed and it's pretty slow.

Were you using a fresh battery? I found that you could run the heck out of a single 9v, but it would slow down quite a bit over time.

Anyway, my fascination with the Futuron monorail has more to do with my interest in retro-futurism. Why would astronauts need a monorail? Why would you or I want a jet pack? Practically it doesn't make a lot of sense. Because it's cool! If I put myself in the shoes of a 1987 Lego designer and or marketing exec my guess is that they were trying to combine those motorized construction sets that were popular back then with the aging Space theme. Interestingly enough I don't find #6991 very interesting or desirable. There's just something aesthetically pleasing about #6990. It looks like something out of a pulp science fiction comic book. In my eye that approaches pop-art.

cheshirecat

Yep, brand new battery. Slow compared to the trains is what I meant. I get the whole nostalgia thing - on a personal level I loved it and love the whole futuron vibe. And absolutely back in the 80s monorails were both futuristic and a physical embodiment of awesome, just like the first time I rode on the one at epcot. I just don't think thats the case now and certainly not enough for a company like LEGO to base an entire range of sets on.

Diney still say their monorail is “public transport of the future.” although they noticeably put it in quote marks perhaps realising that much like BTTF that future has come and in the monorails case gone. In the 70s and 80s the monorail looked futurisitic, the concrete modernist. Now the concrete looks, as it is, an out of place relic of the 70s like many tower blocks in UK cities. The trains look little different to what I travel on every day. They're just not special any more and I think that would be a real problem for any future sets. It would be fine if it was just a normal set with normal bricks. But a monorail isn't and its surely just not worth LEGO taking the risk.

Hardrada

Too much wishful thinking in this thread. If trains are barely profitable and TLG has (had to) cut back to a more streamlined approach to them (no separately sold cars and engines, switching to plastic rails, etc.) then surely it's easy to understand why they don't launch a second train system. A handful of nostalgic AFOLs don't a big enough customer base make. Monorails are not trendy any more and don't have that much public recognition as the real thing isn't widespread either. I can't even understand what makes you think that it would be a success.

While I'm also nostalgic about the monorail system and even own a #6399 and quite some extra track I'd be happy if the basic trains theme had a bit more variety. But even that has little chance.

As for re-introducing the Legends line: I'm sure those would make a lot more money than around 2000. Problem is that what would have been good sales figures in 2000 aren't enough in 2014. The goal posts have moved. So even if you are most probably right that Legends sets would sell a lot better today that doesn't say much. The question is whether they would sell better than new lines and whether they could tap into a new market. (So not simply grabbing a certain share of AFOLs' Lego budgets.) It's hard to make a case for a line of sets that look dated compared to the current sets and thus would sell rather poorly to kids (the main consumer base) who can't be nostalgic about them. Around 2000 the current sets weren't way ahead of the old classics in design, in fact quite often they were much inferior. One has to admit that this isn't the case any more.

CCC

I don't really see the appeal of Legends either. There are enough complaints when lego remake an existing set / ship in themes such as Star Wars, even if the build is significantly different. Why remake old retired sets from long ago. I prefer that they look forwards, not backwards.

vitreolum

Actually every now and then I would love a limited legends set, say a re-release of 6286 or 6086. Especially if they did them in bluish colors.

It's not the same thing as star wars remakes, these are overdone, and sold as "new sets", that's different to a limited anniversary model or something like that. And clearly aimed at a different public.

If the new castle sets is them looking forward, I'd rather they go back.

Dougout

Monorails don't HAVE to be futuristic. I wouldn't expect Lego to do a space like monorail, they barely do space themes at all anymore. They don't even need a monorail specifically, they just need some type of transport vehicle that can go up and down slopes. Trains are good for flat surfaces.

I guess what I am hearing here is that trains and monorails are out and flying ice cream machines are the new it toy? Kids will want what you make them want, make a goofy looking monorail vehicle and they'll want that too.

Paperbackwriter

Monorail? Seriously? Why not a can opener or a spatula?

TheLoneTensor

Monorails are a little too limited in their application. There's a reason Lego only made a city or space themed monorail, because those are the only general themes that would ever have one. I'd rather trains they spent the trains R&D refining power functions trains for more overall trains applications...like trains for example.

kim43235

I know it's been discussed briefly in mid Jan but wanted to check again.

WVM 10235 seems to be "retired" (not sold out) in european [email protected] but US still have plenty of stock.

What does it mean? Is it getting retired once we run out of stock? Have we had any sets been retired and came back again?

TheLoneTensor

kim43235 said:

I know it's been discussed briefly in mid Jan but wanted to check again.

WVM 10235 seems to be "retired" (not sold out) in european [email protected] but US still have plenty of stock.

What does it mean? Is it getting retired once we run out of stock? Have we had any sets been retired and came back again?

Has it been labeled as "retired product?" If so, I believe you're right, we have not had anything come back from that label.

There has always been at least two WV sets out at any given xmas, but it wouldn't surprise me if they do a one-and-done one of these years, maybe starting with this one.

mathew

Paperbackwriter said:

Monorail? Seriously? Why not a can opener or a spatula?

These kind of flippant responses well, uh, don't deserve a response ; )

But I really don't think it matters. For some reason the monorail discussion brings out the worst in people. There are those of us who wear the rose tinted glasses of nostalgia and can't understand why Lego won't re-release a monorail. And then there are those like yourself who just play the small minded jerk card. Why do you care so much if people just want to talk about it? This is a discussion forum after all. Go to a different discussion if you don't like it.

madforLEGO

mathew said:

Paperbackwriter said:

Monorail? Seriously? Why not a can opener or a spatula?

These kind of flippant responses well, uh, don't deserve a response ; )

But I really don't think it matters. For some reason the monorail discussion brings out the worst in people. There are those of us who wear the rose tinted glasses of nostalgia and can't understand why Lego won't re-release a monorail. And then there are those like yourself who just play the small minded jerk card. Why do you care so much if people just want to talk about it? This is a discussion forum after all. Go to a different discussion if you don't like it.

Do not try to bully people off a board or discussion because you do not like the comment. They made a perceived flippant comment... Like you (or anyone else, myself included) never have left flippant comments in any discussions.
I would say in general there have been plenty of flippant comments made in this thread and everywhere else, but yet life and the thread goes on.
How about instead of giving an ultimatum to someone you just ignore the comment?