Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

prevere

^I'm at a loss in understanding why Lego has not remade a black tumbler with the new waves. Oh wait, they did for 2014 ... it's 57 pieces.

vitreolum

I don't know if we'll see another tumbler the size of #7888, if they make it the minifig scale it will always look like a joke to me.

Farmer_John

I missed out on #7888, but ended up Bricklinking two of them over the last year. One was black (Batman's) for my son and one was red (a Harley Quinn version) for my daughter.

richo

I just thought I would mention how nice #79111 Constitution Train Chase set is. Not sure what any of you resellers think, but as a collector I only realised how nice it is at the weekend. I actually went back to get another one since they were on offer after been discontinued, and ended up getting both of the last two sets they had in store. This was in part due to the fact that one of the boxes looked like it had got in to a disagreement with a Honey Badger, so I got a further discount.

Anyway, I don't have any plans to sell mine, but just wandered what the view was on this? I have The Emerald Night, and to be honest, it stands up quite well to it, especially when you consider the huge number of minifigs included and all the track. Really not sure how I missed this last year, I think I stupidly wrote it off as a Toy Story Train type set. How wrong I was!

Farmer_John

^I built one over Christmas and was very happy with it. The price was very good (around $65) and it was a fun build. Probably the only downside is that it's associated with a movie that flopped, so people might not consider it. But you're right...it does have possibilities.

We still have a few at our local Wally World for a 10% discount, but I am waiting for a steeper cut before I wade in. I may miss those, but am willing to take the risk.

madforLEGO

I think that if you got it on discount (at least $80 or less) then it was a good deal (then again I said the same thing about EN). I just do not see it being a '100' dollar set, track or not, but that is just me.

FollowsClosely

I think it will do well, very well actually. I got most of mine in the $80 range and expect that it will perform similar to the other mentioned trains.

TheLoneTensor

FollowsClosely said:

I think it will do well, very well actually. I got most of mine in the $80 range and expect that it will perform similar to the other mentioned trains.

I couldn't agree more. Still available at Target right now for $80. Even if you just want one for yourself, get it now, or by xmas you'll be kicking yourself.

Farmer_John

Basically, the only lego train that hasn't done well is the Toy Story train and I think the reasons for that should be obvious.

cloaked7

^ Yup, by far most trains do well. I think #79111 will follow the train trend.

prevere

Farmer_John said:

Basically, the only lego train that hasn't done well is the Toy Story train and I think the reasons for that should be obvious.

I just parted out another TS train this week. I bought a bunch when they were $50. For a parts pack, it was still a good buy.

spicemind

^^ I agree regarding the look of #79111. The set has a certain charm to me, being a fan of the Old West. Value-wise, it is a nice set considering you get track and minifigs along with the train. For those reasons, I think the set will do well (though, not as well as EN) in the aftermarket.

mathew

I guess I'm the lone dissenting voice, but I'm just not understanding the love for the TLR train. It definitely is no Emerald Night and you're fooling yourself if you're expecting it to be $200+ by next Christmas.

pharmjod

I know it is possible I've missed a post, but has there been a cry from a majority claiming it will be $200+ by next Christmas? I think most people just think it will do "well" which is a relative term. I too think it will do "well" over time. By this Christmas 2014, assuming it is completely gone (which is should be) it should easily be $120-$150 I would think. By Christmas 2015, it could very well surpass $200. Given that it has been widely available to many at $50-$70 with various sales, that seems like a decent ROI for 1 year if you managed to get it on sale. Not gonna set the world on fire, but I don't think you'll lose either.

tamamahm

I think part of the thing with the train is that it is a train. No reason not to expect it to not do okay.

I will also say we really enjoyed this set. Granted, we turned it into a holiday train, but it was fun.

spicemind

pharmjod said:

I know it is possible I've missed a post, but has there been a cry from a majority claiming it will be $200+ by next Christmas? I think most people just think it will do "well" which is a relative term. I too think it will do "well" over time. By this Christmas 2014, assuming it is completely gone (which is should be) it should easily be $120-$150 I would think. By Christmas 2015, it could very well surpass $200. Given that it has been widely available to many at $50-$70 with various sales, that seems like a decent ROI for 1 year if you managed to get it on sale. Not gonna set the world on fire, but I don't think you'll lose either.

...It's like you were reading my mind... :)

TheLoneTensor

pharmjod said:

I know it is possible I've missed a post, but has there been a cry from a majority claiming it will be $200+ by next Christmas? I think most people just think it will do "well" which is a relative term. I too think it will do "well" over time. By this Christmas 2014, assuming it is completely gone (which is should be) it should easily be $120-$150 I would think. By Christmas 2015, it could very well surpass $200. Given that it has been widely available to many at $50-$70 with various sales, that seems like a decent ROI for 1 year if you managed to get it on sale. Not gonna set the world on fire, but I don't think you'll lose either.

I agree with the $70 end of your range. I don't think many were able to widely pick it up at $50. And I don't believe people were clamoring that it was going to set the world on fire (that would be something like #41999), but rather that it was just a solid investment, something you can claim on fewer and fewer sets these days. Then again, if you buy for $80, you sell for $150, that's $50 in your pocket after fees. I don't know about you, but 62% apr sets my world on fire.

FollowsClosely

If this set goes in the next couple months, it will be $150 by Christmas. $50 per sale on a $80 investment is a fine return for my business.

doriansdad

Looks like a $130 shipped set to me. Just not enough meat on the bone for me. My next train purchase will be Horizon Express at the end of 2015.

madforLEGO

Just curious about Exclusives... If LEGO EOLs an exclusive and they need to clear out stock, do they then have an excuse to clearance them, as they are no longer in production ( I mean for what it is worth FB was on sale on their site, albeit out of stock online and EOL'd)? Same with Retailers.. Once LEGO stops making them, will they then discount them? I mean what is the worst that occurs, LEGO stops sending them the set that was EOL'd? Or are there more sanctions that LEGO has in store for retailers that do this with an EOL set (like stop them from selling any other exclusives if the set they discount is gone)?

doriansdad

Resellers will make sure there is no stock left online or instore to clearance. Once word gets out an exclusive set is going to EOL then all will be bought up within a day or 2 at RRP.

FenrisAkashi

@madforLEGO

To answer your questions directly: Yes, they do. Winter villiage Cottage was clearanced for $80 after Christmas and I got a few in-store for that price.

prevere

Silver mine shootout is now call to check. And Doc Ock Ambush is sold out. Not sure if these are new to the list or not.

Pitfall69

Is there a standard % that you guys take off for an opened set? Is it like when you drive a new car off the lot?

hoyatables

Heh. I feel like finding a great deal on a used set is like finding a great deal on used car. The equivalent of the car with 5,000 miles that the little old lady only drove to church on Sunday is the used set that has an opened box and maybe one opened bag from the kid who decided he didn't want it.

Pacific493

prevere said:

Silver mine shootout is now call to check. And Doc Ock Ambush is sold out. Not sure if these are new to the list or not.

doc ock set has been sold out for a few weeks. You can still find some at wm/ but they're getting more difficult to find so get them while you can.

Pitfall69

hoyatables said:

Heh. I feel like finding a great deal on a used set is like finding a great deal on used car. The equivalent of the car with 5,000 miles that the little old lady only drove to church on Sunday is the used set that has an opened box and maybe one opened bag from the kid who decided he didn't want it.

Yeah. I was just wondering what "breaking the seal" actually does to the value of a set.

FollowsClosely

Hurts big time for some sets. Just look at the UCS Faclon as an example. I consider a set used if the seals are broken.

TheLoneTensor

FollowsClosely said:

Hurts big time for some sets. Just look at the UCS Faclon as an example. I consider a set used if the seals are broken.

I don't know if I'd degrade a set down to used for a broken seal. It's still Mint In Box, just not Mint In Sealed Box.

But I do agree that it's amplified for a set like the MF, because the entire thing is collectible (set, box, instructions, even seals, etc.). For the majority of sets, however, I think it's important to some, but not to most that the set is sealed. For example, a set like the Winter Toy Shop will sell for nearly the same value whether the seals are broken or not, as long as the bricks are 100% complete and 100% unplayed with; all other things being equal, of course. That is, unless the buyer is planning on flipping it later, in which case the seals are quite important*.

* Which is kinda funny anyway, because if you're really devious, you can circumvent seals, so it's a flawed sense of security that the set is indeed perfect.

cloaked7

TheLoneTensor said:

* Which is kinda funny anyway, because if you're really devious, you can circumvent seals, so it's a flawed sense of security that the set is indeed perfect.

Yup, funny, but not in a Ha Ha way. People that open, remove LEGOS, then reseal are thieves plain and simple. Just last week I was a victim of a reseal thief. Fortunately I got the LEGO set from yoyo.com (an obvious return) and they refunded me. It was near impossible to tell the seals had been tampered with. I suspected something when I picked up the set and it felt light. It weighed about half what it should have weighed. Opening it found torn cardboard pieces and a few re-taped bags of LEGO junk. I didn't even want to touch any of it. I threw all of it away.

legoprods

doriansdad said:

It has no watermark but not sure if this is allowed but this is the technic flagship 42030 model for 2014:

mountebank

That looks terrific.

nkx1

I saw the video, and I must admit I was a little more impressed than I thought I would be based on the preliminary images. However, one thing that sort of irked me was the super-slow movement of the scoop (clearly due to so many gears needed to operate the actuators). Seems pretty inefficient to me. Too bad Lego can't come up with a better/ more controllable pneumatic system that could work for this.

stevemack

Use proper hydraulic rams made from lego :) Might not be safe for kids though!

pharmjod

Would the old compressor tank be helpful in a model like this? Have one motor charge it up then let the compressed air run the pneumatics?

TheLoneTensor

nkx1 said:

I saw the video, and I must admit I was a little more impressed than I thought I would be based on the preliminary images. However, one thing that sort of irked me was the super-slow movement of the scoop (clearly due to so many gears needed to operate the actuators). Seems pretty inefficient to me. Too bad Lego can't come up with a better/ more controllable pneumatic system that could work for this.

Not unlike for the ME and MCII, there will be upgrade mods available after the mass engineers get their hands on it.

I'll tell you though, I find it a little amazing that Lego can release something like this that becomes so much better after the mods (for example, the ME can be modded to be much faster and stronger than how it is out of the box). I wish they would leverage these modders somehow to ensure that Joe Normal gets "awesome" out of the box, as opposed to "great" that becomes awesome after some tweaks.

And for the record, this model looks really nice.

cloaked7

^ "I wish they would leverage these modders somehow to ensure that Joe Normal gets "awesome" out of the box, as opposed to "great" that becomes awesome after some tweaks."

Yup, I agree. I am sure one main concern is keeping the project secret. One would think they could work something out.

Farmer_John

This thread tends to focus on individual sets as they go EOL...which is completely fair; however, I often wonder what specific attributes of a Lego set make it potentially more valuable after it is discontinued. There are two reasons for this: 1) potential investment opportunity, and 2) to avoid paying a premium to get a copy for myself later on if I didn't pick one up while it was readily available.

As a seed for discussions, here are a few general thoughts:

Sets that seem to do well:
1) Rarity, uniqueness and/or availability (e.g., Taj Mahal, Mellinneom Falcon, space shuttle)
2) Playability and popular movies (e.g., SW, PotC, IJ)
3) Large sets with periodic releases (e.g., modulars)
4) Trains and boats (e.g., EN, IF)
5) Super heroes (e.g., Marvel, DC)

Sets that don't seem to do so well:
1) Duplo? (I've never purchased a duplo set and there isn't much chatter on BL)
2) Less popular movies (e.g., PoP)
3) Popular movies that don't seem to translate well to Lego (e.g., TS, LotR)
4) Strange (e.g., Chima)
5) Repetitive (e.g., space themes)
6) Overproduced/overpriced sets

Again, this list is just my thoughts and anyone (including me) can find exceptions to the rules (or even problems with the rules themselves). The initial list I have provided isn't even close to being comprehensive. Selfishly, I'm curious about trying to predict which sets will do better going forward before EOL'ing (aka, the topic of this thread).

Thoughts?

stevemack

Would I be right in saying the LotR pirate ship will do well based on it being a ship and not the theme itself?

doriansdad

The LotR ship is not your typical pirate ship so I would not expect too much out of it. It is no BP, QAR or IF so forget about those levels of returns or sell thru rates. If you get it at rock bottom prices and don't mind it being a slow mover it is an option, just not a very attractive one to me.

y2josh

I'm not looking at the LotR ship to do very well on either the ship front OR the LotR front. As a ship in and of itself, it's fairly lackluster, and not a substantial build. Sitting next to other 'proper' ships, it looks pretty lame. On the LotR side, it doesn't really contain any massively desirable minifigs, and it seems to have caught the most flak for being a poor choice of subject material (especially given all of the other iconic locations/characters/scenes that were disregarded in order for it to be released).

As @doriansdad says, if you can get it at huge discounts, you might do alright, but even if I could find it for $50, I'd be hesitant to load up, just because I think there are more attractive sets (even at full price) to sink my money into.

starwarfan77

naively asking what are "more attractive sets (even at full price)" ?

y2josh said:

I'm not looking at the LotR ship to do very well on either the ship front OR the LotR front. As a ship in and of itself, it's fairly lackluster, and not a substantial build. Sitting next to other 'proper' ships, it looks pretty lame. On the LotR side, it doesn't really contain any massively desirable minifigs, and it seems to have caught the most flak for being a poor choice of subject material (especially given all of the other iconic locations/characters/scenes that were disregarded in order for it to be released).

As @doriansdad says, if you can get it at huge discounts, you might do alright, but even if I could find it for $50, I'd be hesitant to load up, just because I think there are more attractive sets (even at full price) to sink my money into.

TheLoneTensor

y2josh said:

I'm not looking at the LotR ship to do very well on either the ship front OR the LotR front. As a ship in and of itself, it's fairly lackluster, and not a substantial build. Sitting next to other 'proper' ships, it looks pretty lame. On the LotR side, it doesn't really contain any massively desirable minifigs, and it seems to have caught the most flak for being a poor choice of subject material (especially given all of the other iconic locations/characters/scenes that were disregarded in order for it to be released).

As @doriansdad says, if you can get it at huge discounts, you might do alright, but even if I could find it for $50, I'd be hesitant to load up, just because I think there are more attractive sets (even at full price) to sink my money into.

You get this at $50, you've doubled your money by xmas.

starwarfan77

hmm.. we are expecting this to reach $140? by xmas. i am assuming at selling price of $140 after commission and shipping one nets $100 which will be doubling the $50.

TheLoneTensor said:

y2josh said:

I'm not looking at the LotR ship to do very well on either the ship front OR the LotR front. As a ship in and of itself, it's fairly lackluster, and not a substantial build. Sitting next to other 'proper' ships, it looks pretty lame. On the LotR side, it doesn't really contain any massively desirable minifigs, and it seems to have caught the most flak for being a poor choice of subject material (especially given all of the other iconic locations/characters/scenes that were disregarded in order for it to be released).

As @doriansdad says, if you can get it at huge discounts, you might do alright, but even if I could find it for $50, I'd be hesitant to load up, just because I think there are more attractive sets (even at full price) to sink my money into.

You get this at $50, you've doubled your money by xmas.

y2josh

TheLoneTensor said:

y2josh said:

I'm not looking at the LotR ship to do very well on either the ship front OR the LotR front. As a ship in and of itself, it's fairly lackluster, and not a substantial build. Sitting next to other 'proper' ships, it looks pretty lame. On the LotR side, it doesn't really contain any massively desirable minifigs, and it seems to have caught the most flak for being a poor choice of subject material (especially given all of the other iconic locations/characters/scenes that were disregarded in order for it to be released).

As @doriansdad says, if you can get it at huge discounts, you might do alright, but even if I could find it for $50, I'd be hesitant to load up, just because I think there are more attractive sets (even at full price) to sink my money into.

You get this at $50, you've doubled your money by xmas.

Maybe. That's contingent on the ship being EOL by Christmas and people being willing to spend ~$120 + shipping on it - neither of which I'm comfortable with betting on happening. Transversely, just sticking within the same theme, I could still pick up some Weathertops at (or just below) retail, which I feel have a better chance of doing well once people realize that's the only way to get anymore ringwraiths (provided there, of course, TLG has really pulled the plug on LotR - I'd expect to know for sure by NYTF at the latest).

Farmer_John

With two more years of Hobbit movies coming, I think most will be tired of the LotR/Hobbit Lego sets. Hence, the reason I listed it under popular movies that don't translate well. Sure a few of the sets will be exceptions...probably those that had a short shelf life or the larger sets, but overall I don't think the series will be like SW. And SW will get new life when Disney starts producing new SW movies.

Apples and oranges...

y2josh

I agree that most of the LotR/Hobbit sets have been underwhelming, but I'll be EXTREMELY surprised if some of the rarer minifigures don't command high prices and help drive a handful of sets. I'm not personally holding any LotR sets back for resale, so much as I was just offering up Weathertop as an example of something that I'd more happily spend $50-60 'investment dollars' on versus a discounted corsair.

Gavin83

I still think mines of Moria will do well. It's a terrible set but was available at large discounts and is the only set likely to contain Boromir and a cave troll, plus some of the other minifigs were cool as well.

vitreolum

I'm actually on the other side with lotr/hobbit, I think some of the sets will do very well and translate well into lego. I for one enjoy most of the sets, one of the few series I'm actually interested in the sets as well, not only the minifigs.

The soon retired hobbit sets were also available only one year, that's another plus.

@Farmer_John Two more years of Hobbit movies coming will only increase the hype, not make people tired of them. The more advertising everywhere, the better, not the other way around. Just look at star wars and superheroes...

richo

^ I agree, but more so on Lord of the Rings. The Goblin King Battle was a disappointing set for a flagship Hobbit one.