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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Nothing wrong with that...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Legoboy said:

    Maybe those sharing information should charge for their consultancy work. Who works for nothing?

    You're right... So, now to start sending out some invoices! :)

    *Lord Business laugh*
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited January 2014

    ...Sorry, I can't get excited over making $120 or so on a resale. Percentage wise, that would be great on fire brigade. But this is a hobby for me. I make money elsewhere. And, well, if I could sell a fire brigades and turn a profit of $50,000.....my level of enthusiasm would increase significantly. But most of these reseller discussions concern dollar amounts that are really small potatoes in the larger scheme of things.

    Besides, making $120 on a fire brigade might be a good percentage gain, if the time you spent buying, listing, packaging for shipment has no value to you.

    Maybe it's not worth it for you, but if I can sell three Fire Brigades at an average profit of $70 each, each entailing an average of 20 minutes of work (maybe slightly less time the more I sell), it is worth it for me considering I don't make $210 per hour at work. Very few people make $200+ per hour working- clearly, selling on a small scale is of value to some people. Even if a few hundred (or a few thousand) dollars here and there is small potatoes in the scheme of things, who doesn't like a hobby that is actually profitable?
    pharmjodspicemindy2joshPitfall69TheLoneTensorLegoFanTexasVaderXcardgeniusBTHodgeman
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97

    Legoboy said:

    Maybe those sharing information should charge for their consultancy work. Who works for nothing?

    You're right... So, now to start sending out some invoices! :)

    *Lord Business laugh*
    Pretty sure he said "information", not "opinion on everyone's comment in every single thread"
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^What purpose does your comment serve in this discussion? I have benefited a time or two from LFT's posts and personal messages. I have also bought from him and his service is quite good. I know everyone loves to gang up on LFT, but he does serve the Community whether people agree with him or not.

    So one invoice to be sent to @Pitfall69 ;)
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexasYellowcastleLegoboy
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited January 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^What purpose does your comment serve in this discussion? I have benefited a time or two from LFT's posts and personal messages. I have also bought from him and his service is quite good. I know everyone loves to gang up on LFT, but he does serve the Community whether people agree with him or not.

    I would agree with this too, because I think LFT is far more positive to have around here than negative. And (speaking as if he can't hear me right now) yeah, he comments on things A LOT (holy crud on a cracker a lot - 7500 posts? really?), but the guy has more than earned his right around here to speak his mind, even if it is not always as accurate as he'd like it to be.
    CircleKDaraghLegoFanTexastamamahmYellowcastletiminchicago
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited January 2014
    ^Well to be fair, if he didn't hoard line breaks also then it would only be around 1,000 posts =)

    "There is still good in him..."
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexasYellowcastleBumblepants
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    @TheLoneTensor

    Not only did he post 7500 times, a lot of his posts are many paragraphs ;)

    I would rather have LFT versus a troll any day.
    DaraghLegoFanTexasjuggles7
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    edited January 2014
    ^^ Well I beg differ. Line breaks won't earn him more posts, they do make the posts feel a lot longer, very much like the Lego boxes, you know those giant beast fully packed with air. ;)
    LegoFanTexasLegoboy
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374

    ^Well to be fair, if he didn't hoard line breaks also then it would only be around 1,000 posts =)

    "There is still good in him..."

    Yeah, I really need to get back to the Star Wars quotes.

    To be fair, sometimes it is really hard to get your point across in text form.
    LegoFanTexas
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited January 2014
    JeffH said:

    ^Well I beg differ. Line breaks won't earn him more posts, they do make the posts feel a lot longer, very much like the Lego boxes, you know those giant beast fully packed with air. ;)

    Sometimes, LFT is like a Imperial Shuttle box...Packed too tight and full :)

    JeffHLegoFanTexasLegoboy
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Where were we? Oh yeah. I own two businesses and I'm always looking for ways to generate more income. Right now I only put in 18 hours a week into one business and I mostly watch my children. Selling Lego here and there is no big deal and doesn't take too much of my time. It may not be enough for some people, but extra money does come in handy whether it is a little or a lot.
    Yellowcastle
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited January 2014
    So I've noticed that the Lone Ranger Silver Mine #79110 has been on sale at Amazon, Yoyo & Target for a while now. $50 vs $70 is not a huge discount, but it won't be around much longer, and I honestly see this set doing extremely well down the road as a sleeper set of the line. It's got a lot of play value and a range of characters including good old fashioned cowboys and a unique indian. Plus, while the LR and Tonto figures are the same in every other set in the line, each are unique in this one.
    Pitfall69prevere
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Funny thing is, while the set looks like a nice one, I don't think it will do much, if anything.

    It has been on sale forever, yet it isn't selling at a huge rate, it has remained in stock while all the other sets have sold out.

    If that set breaks $100 any time soon I'd be shocked.

    I have a dozen or so of them, but that is just in case I'm wrong. :) (I have a dozen or so of just about everything, for the same reason)
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member Posts: 4,401
    ^ Based on the original Western sets, I think I agree. The Constitution Train Chase, though, looks brilliant, was reasonably priced and a train so I think it will do very well. As much as I had been clamoring for the return of Western sets, I was only really excited about the stagecoach and train.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I tend to agree, the train seems to stand well on its own. Leave the figures and maybe even the gun off the back, it makes a nice old school train all on its own. It comes with track, which I think is important, and it just is nice all around.

    No EN of course, but then what is? :)

    The Stage Coach is nice, but will anyone care in a year or two? Maybe... Kingdoms had a Stage Coach and it didn't do much. (#7199) I have found a few #7199 sets in the random B&N stores from time to time (for original price of course, $39.99) Nice set, but overpriced by $10 which is perhaps why it has gone nowhere. TLR version was $10 less at RRP and widely on sale for $25, so if you bought for $20-25, you'll do fine. Less so at RRP I think.

    The other set that I see doing well, if you bought it on discount, is Colby City Showdown (#79109). Remove the figs and you have a great western town, the bank and sheriff's office is the perfect image for that. If you remember the Western Cuusoo set that didn't pass muster (shame, it was nice), this is like a scaled down version. If you picked this up for $40-45 or so, it should reach $80 by this coming Christmas and sell in decent enough volume. Nice mixture of colors, good part count.

    The funny thing is, the part count and physical size/weight of #79110 is higher than #79109, so it should do better, right? Yea, maybe... But the parts in #79110 are not as easy to use for MOCs, or kids for that matter, lots of vertical slopes, not much in terms of a building, and it more or less is a mine. The fact that it is bigger, heavier, more parts than #79109 and it still isn't sold out should be a huge warning flag. It is to me anyway.

    Side note, the sleeper hit might be #79107, how many Indian Teepees has LEGO done? If you want such a thing, that might be quite rare. The canoe is nice as well, not a bad set. That one might well double in RRP before anything else does (short of the obvious #79106 army builder)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Speaking of themes...

    Ninjago did amazingly well Christmas 2012, but it didn't do much this past year, I still have too many sets left where I was waiting for prices to climb back up, and they just didn't. A lot of inventory showed up during Christmas that clearly was being held back, #2507 I'm looking at you.

    Time will tell if this has any staying power, but frankly the year off really hurt, kids moved on to other things (and Chima doesn't seem to be one of them).

    My own kids aren't Ninjago crazy like they were a year ago, they recently rewatched the show (we have digital copies) and while they seem to enjoy it, that was it.

    My 8 year old told me a few days ago, "Dad, we can take apart the Ninjago sets now, other than the dragons, I'm done with them".

    That, more than anything else, tells me something. Check back with me in a year and I'll tell you what that something is. :)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    My kids still like Ninjago but you're right that the theme is nowhere near as popular as it was in 2012. My oldest son has latched onto the MB Halo sets. He's a little young for Halo but it's something to tide him over until the new Hero Factory are released.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242


    The Stage Coach is nice, but will anyone care in a year or two? Maybe... Kingdoms had a Stage Coach and it didn't do much. (#7199) I have found a few #7199 sets in the random B&N stores from time to time (for original price of course, $39.99) Nice set, but overpriced by $10 which is perhaps why it has gone nowhere. TLR version was $10 less at RRP and widely on sale for $25, so if you bought for $20-25, you'll do fine. Less so at RRP I think.


    ...

    The other set that I see doing well, if you bought it on discount, is Colby City Showdown (#79109). .


    Thing is nearly every castle line has had a coach of some sort...honestly they are a bit done to death and I love castle.
    TLR one was well done, had great figs, new horses and a good build and feel to the set as whole. I think it will do decently.



    Colby City was available for about 25$ each from Target if you PM'ed Amazon and and used the Target 5$ toy coupon +Red card. I expect the ones I picked up to do nicely or be nice cheap fun MOC sets ALA the recent Hobbit Barrel escape bonanza.
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    edited January 2014
    About the train(s), what about 9467?
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Kind of surprised to see #6868 Hulks Helicarrier breakout doing so well already. I found one in a clearance aisle today and did a quick check on ebay. Sealed sets are going in the 60 - 70 range and the Hulk maxi fig alone will fetch 30 easily.

    I thought it was the stinker of the bunch. They were routinely clearanced out for 30 to 35 in my area several months ago.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    edited January 2014
    I would guess that prices will fall once #76018 is widely available. I am almost out, just one or two left.
    Yellowcastle
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    I would guess that prices will fall once #76018 is widely available. I am almost out, just one or two left.

    Will they though? #6868 seems to be in short supply already, firstly theres not many on the secondary market for sale, when you compare to other super heroes sets so this will help to hold its value at least and secondly #6868 is a very different type of set to #76018. #6868 has the hulk with green trousers so that will fetch a higher premium than the blue trousers of #76018.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305

    About the train(s), what about 9467?

    To be honest, I do not see it doing terribly well in the aftermarket. For one main reason, not LEGO train rail compatible. While the Loco is, I believe the rest is not, which means many train fans will likely not pick it up.
    The Constitution train chase however all cars are LEGO rail compatible, same with the TS train. And the Constitution train chase set comes with track as well.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited January 2014

    I would guess that prices will fall once #76018 is widely available. I am almost out, just one or two left.

    Will they though? #6868 seems to be in short supply already, firstly theres not many on the secondary market for sale, when you compare to other super heroes sets so this will help to hold its value at least and secondly #6868 is a very different type of set to #76018. #6868 has the hulk with green trousers so that will fetch a higher premium than the blue trousers of #76018.
    Being as the primary complaint about the #6868 Hulk was that he used the tan pants from the film version and not the 'classic' purple pants, I'm not sure this argument holds water. If demand for the purple pants version is greater than the tan pants version, I can see #6868's value tanking pretty rapidly, especially since Hulk is, presumably, the driving force behind that set's value.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^Precisely my expectation. It was a nice surprise to see it rise as it did, so holding any longer seemed a pointless risk. Sold all but 2 of mine.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    ^Both 1st wave Hulk and Cap will quickly have new versions out shortly. Will either maintain its quick nice aftermarket rise? I say short-term no, but by Xmas they will be where they are now or higher. Fans of both will want each version. Lego Marvel collectors as well.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 435

    Honestly, I think this is not so much Lego trying to cash in on The Simpsons, as it is The Simpson's using Lego to help revitalize interest in their overall product.

    And it's working.

    And perhaps that probably why this set has such a healthy price per piece. Probably almost gave away the license.
  • PaperbackwriterPaperbackwriter Member Posts: 105
    As far as TV ratings go, the Simpson franchise is on solid ground. They were renewed for 2014-2015. I don't think that the Simpsons really need Lego anymore than Lego needs the Simpsons.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member Posts: 4,401
    Looks like I waited too long on Jabba's Palace. Anyone think Amazon or Target discounts this again or should I just take my medicine and order it from [email protected] while the getting is good. I have the rancor yet stupidly kept putting off the palace. I'm an OT collector and was very excited the rancor pit was modular and then stupidly forgot to grab both.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    edited January 2014
    ^It is unlikely as the major reason Amazon consistently showing discounted price is due to lower price at Walmart and now Walmart.com was out of the item. You may want to check your local Toysrus as it is right now 20 off 75 and for the moment it is RRP for the set at the website so that makes it 100. Because of wackiness of Toysrus pricing, it may go up tomorrow so you may want to to store pickup tonight to lock up the price if possible. I do not count on store level with RRP so try store pickup if possible.

    Or you can try Ebay and there are a few for 110 shipped and depend on your locale, tax may also come into play as most of time the seller does not charge tax there.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-STAR-WARS-9516-JABBAS-PALACE-MISB-NEW-SEALED-/151213729922?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item23350a6882

    Based on the history, he sold one for 100 just a few days ago and received positive feedback from buyer so offer that price should be fine.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    #9516 sold out on UK [email protected] since 26th Dec. How did I miss that? Its still at John Lewis and Tesco for £80. I assume all reseller have loads of JP piled up, it was £60 at argos last year and £50 at Smyths last week.

    I only have a few JP as I decided to go with #9526 instead.

    JP @ £60 or PA @ £35. Which will turn out to be the best investment?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,590
    ^ JP. It's OT.
    vitreolum
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited January 2014
    ^If all other resellers agree and didn't bother with PA then mine should do well.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Actually I'm all for PA, it should do great in some time, especially since there's very few of them for sale currently and many seem to avoid it. But between JP and PA at those prices, I'd go with JP if I had to choose. Might take longer for it to grow, but the return will be better.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member Posts: 4,401
    Thanks @JeffH
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Hey everyone, it's been a while Lego is truly testing my student finance this year, thank god I am soon to graduate (and fingers crossed become full time employed) in the meantime I am wondering everyone's opinion on Robie House, now discontinued it never stood out to me as a must have set when it was around however there often the ones that tend to do best in retirement...
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited January 2014

    Hey everyone, it's been a while Lego is truly testing my student finance this year, thank god I am soon to graduate (and fingers crossed become full time employed) in the meantime I am wondering everyone's opinion on Robie House, now discontinued it never stood out to me as a must have set when it was around however there often the ones that tend to do best in retirement...

    A lot depends on what was paid for it, I paid around £112 so can see that reaching my target of £230 by christmas 2014. It will do well in the long term 1-3 years post retirement but can't see it doubling RRP for a long while. Generally they are seen (Architecture series) as being a slow climb with few sales, with the odd exception. But I think a few had there eyes on this set, especially at the £108-£120 mark. It is one of the better and more recognised sets in the series, and therefore I don't think it retired with a whimper.

  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242

    Hey everyone, it's been a while Lego is truly testing my student finance this year, thank god I am soon to graduate (and fingers crossed become full time employed) in the meantime I am wondering everyone's opinion on Robie House, now discontinued it never stood out to me as a must have set when it was around however there often the ones that tend to do best in retirement...

    A lot depends on what was paid for it, I paid around £112 so can see that reaching my target of £230 by christmas 2014. It will do well in the long term 1-3 years post retirement but can't see it doubling RRP for a long while. Generally they are seen (Architecture series) as being a slow climb with few sales, with the odd exception. But I think a few had there eyes on this set, especially at the £108-£120 mark. It is one of the better and more recognised sets in the series, and therefore I don't think it retired with a whimper.

    It's between that or the Umog 400 at the moment... I've never blinked an eye at a technics set previously either :/ haha.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Can you still get #8110 or #21010 without having to pay over RRP?
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    JamesJT said:

    Can you still get #8110 or #21010 without having to pay over RRP?

    I can get a #8110 on click and collect in my local Argos however it's £5 over RRP... Which are retail stores even allowed to do? :/

  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    JamesJT said:

    Can you still get #8110 or #21010 without having to pay over RRP?

    Also #21010 is also available at RRP within the UK.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,590

    Hey everyone, it's been a while Lego is truly testing my student finance this year, thank god I am soon to graduate (and fingers crossed become full time employed) in the meantime I am wondering everyone's opinion on Robie House, now discontinued it never stood out to me as a must have set when it was around however there often the ones that tend to do best in retirement...

    A lot depends on what was paid for it, I paid around £112 so can see that reaching my target of £230 by christmas 2014. It will do well in the long term 1-3 years post retirement but can't see it doubling RRP for a long while. Generally they are seen (Architecture series) as being a slow climb with few sales, with the odd exception. But I think a few had there eyes on this set, especially at the £108-£120 mark. It is one of the better and more recognised sets in the series, and therefore I don't think it retired with a whimper.

    It's between that or the Umog 400 at the moment... I've never blinked an eye at a technics set previously either :/ haha.
    Except for #41999?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,590

    JamesJT said:

    Can you still get #8110 or #21010 without having to pay over RRP?

    I can get a #8110 on click and collect in my local Argos however it's £5 over RRP... Which are retail stores even allowed to do? :/

    Yes, they can sell their stock for whatever they like. RRP is meaningless in law.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    RRP is just the manufacturer recommended price, stores can sell for 100x RRP if they so wish.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242

    Except for #41999?

    Ah yes but #41999 was a different situation all together
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,813
    edited January 2014
    I rarely if ever comment on this thread, but I have always had a suspicion that first phase LOTR sets are going to do very well indeed at some point. Weathertop, Orc Forge, Uruk-Hai army, Helms Deep, Mines of Moria and even Gandalf Arrives. I'll be interested to watch this one.

    I simply love the Weathertop set, great build and fantastic minifigs. 2xRing Wraiths and black horses. :-)
    FollowsCloselyThanos75Dougoutvitreolumcardgeniusnerick906
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I think the only thing holding back Weathertop from breaking out is everyone waiting for the final wave of LOTR (if there is one) to see if there are Ringwraiths in any of those sets. If there are, I think it'll hurt the value considerably.
    cloaked7cardgenius
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