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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited January 2014
    The actual bet I proposed was a chrome (or 14kt) Threepio versus the lame blue version of Hoth Han (which I thought was fitting, because it pitted the only desirable chrome figure against the only undesirable version of Hoth Han). And though I did concede my chances of winning were slim once the B-Wing sale happened, I'm still going to wait for the January 1, 2015 date.

    Plus, if push comes to shove, I have plenty of those awful TC-14 polys lying around that I could sell off for a penny to really tank the average... but then I'd have to feel bad about all the people that I overcharged for a TC-14. ;)

    For what it's worth, I didn't expect a Threepio if I'd won, but I'll absolutely be sending out a Han. Sam deserves at least one good mini.
    rocaoPitfall69
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,642
    After reading this a few days ago, I created a Hans and TC-14 7 days auction on eBay, same terms, end time within 5 minutes. TC-14 sold for $29, Hans for $6 both had $1.69 Shipping.
    After that I created another, it will end in 28h from now, TC-14 is currently at $16.50 and Hans is at $4.99 (starting price)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^My mother always called him Hans Solo, too. And then she would also do Darth Ader for some reason...
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,642
    ^ Opps..., on a side note in the French version, Han Solo is Yan Solo and Darth Vader is Dark Vador and there is a few others, but the worst is Porkins that became Porky :)
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 863
    Looks like I better go sell my TC-14s!
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,383
    Yup. I stirith the pot :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,383
    I'm on the fence about buying another Grand Emporium. I am surprised how much Fire Brigade is selling for. Did anyone predict this? I sure didn't.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I predict that it is the initial "oh my gosh it's gone better get one" surge.

    I predict the price will be lower in 6 months.

    It may be similar or higher come Christmas, but at some point, all the "I just missed it" people will be gone, the only buyers left are those coming out of their dark ages and those who wanted one but couldn't afford it, but that latter group, if they couldn't afford it at RRP, how do they afford it at 2x RRP?

    PR just came out, one of the best modulars done. Another one will be along shortly.

    Only the release of a Police HQ or Police Precinct will draw back interest I think. While the FB is a good one and it will always have fans, LEGO has swamped the market with great big sets.
    juggles7
  • preusspreuss CanadaMember Posts: 89

    ^ Opps..., on a side note in the French version, Han Solo is Yan Solo and Darth Vader is Dark Vador and there is a few others, but the worst is Porkins that became Porky :)

    In Portuguese Count Dooku became Dookan, but it was because Dooku sounds like "of the asshole" in Portuguese :-D
    LostInTranslationLegobutterfly
  • bgl_84bgl_84 Member Posts: 3
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited January 2014

    ^ I predict that it is the initial "oh my gosh it's gone better get one" surge.

    I predict the price will be lower in 6 months.

    It may be similar or higher come Christmas, but at some point, all the "I just missed it" people will be gone, the only buyers left are those coming out of their dark ages and those who wanted one but couldn't afford it, but that latter group, if they couldn't afford it at RRP, how do they afford it at 2x RRP?

    PR just came out, one of the best modulars done. Another one will be along shortly.

    Only the release of a Police HQ or Police Precinct will draw back interest I think. While the FB is a good one and it will always have fans, LEGO has swamped the market with great big sets.

    The unknown is when people will really start flooding the market. I think most people who stowed away FB's are really tired of looking at those boxes and want to get rid of them, so if they can realize a quick $50-$100, they'll do it just to release the karma (and space, sheesh those old modular boxes are big).

    I really do wonder about the future of modulars for resale, because not only do you have to have people coming out of their dark ages with money to spend, but those are now filtered by having enough space to display all those big buildings. They will be picking and choosing their favorites only, not necessarily all of them to complete the collection.

    Honestly, I think the FB has some serious staying power, simply because kids (of all ages) love Fire Stations. I think if the FB is put side by side with most any other modular, it'll be the one chosen over the "store" or "a couple houses" or the "city hall." And also, you mention the inevitable Police Precinct. I think that will actually strengthen the FB, because their very natures compliment each other nicely.
    TXLegoguymadforLEGOLegoFanTexas
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Not including the mini, the next modular will be the 10th. Hoping we get a Fort Knox in chrome gold.
  • PaperbackwriterPaperbackwriter Member Posts: 105
    Do an ebay search for completed auctions involving lego 10197.....fire brigade. You will see that very few are selling for a high price. Many are listed at high prices, but few have actually sold.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    mooman66 said:
    After fees, shipping and scammage there is no profit. I know plenty of folks sell on ebay who are just happy to get the VIP points after all is said and done. I will stick with selling retired sets until the next limited numbered set is for sale.

  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 436
    Poor Han Solo.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    I didn't want this to get buried in the "other" thread... So here's the lighter side of #41999

    BrickDancerJeffHLegoFanTexasPitfall69CupIsHalfEmptyDougout
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,383
    edited January 2014

    Do an ebay search for completed auctions involving lego 10197.....fire brigade. You will see that very few are selling for a high price. Many are listed at high prices, but few have actually sold.

    Depends on what you mean by 'high price', many would consider 240 pretty good considering many people bought the for about 120-130 (or lower if you got them during a B2G3F at TRU) back when you could get them on sale.

    Also taking into account it JUST sold out about 1 month ago, and has been out for as long as it has been (5 years),not bad at all.... Also the fact many thought it would stay under 200 for the rest of the year.
    Like others though I'm guessing much of this is panic buying and also resellers buying even at 200-250 to hope they can flip them for another 50-100 in a few months.
    TheLoneTensor
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited January 2014
    ^ Exactly, people tend to forget that there are two prices in the sales spectrum, the price it's going for, and the price paid. It doesn't matter how successful or crappy the set was, if you buy it low and sell it high in comparison to that price, you win.
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • haakonohaakono Member Posts: 62
    edited January 2014
    Hmmm. WVC just showed up for me on an amazon search, as in stock from Amazon on Jan 21 for $100. I thought it was EOL.
    wvc.png 51.2K
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,383
    ^-- Whoever on Amazon had this it is no longer showing
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    The Simpson House is available at UK [email protected] and already there are 2 listed on ebay UK (£260ish). Is it worth a quick flip? 1 or 2 copies may sell for £250+ especially if [email protected] sells out quickly. But if 20 sets appear the price will fall.

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    JamesJT said:

    The Simpson House is available at UK [email protected] and already there are 2 listed on ebay UK (£260ish). Is it worth a quick flip? 1 or 2 copies may sell for £250+ especially if [email protected] sells out quickly. But if 20 sets appear the price will fall.

    Depends on what profit you want? If you pay tax? I have to pay tax and NI on anything I sell, plus there is around 15% fees, so personally I don't sell anything unless I can get 100% gross, which would be £360 and I cant ever seeing it reach that price even if sold out.

  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,841
    There are people selling these from the US to the UK (delivered) for less than $300 (£188). If you haven’t considered import tax/duty, or feel lucky that you won’t get your collar felt for it then £250 seems decidedly expensive. Shortages causing a rise in ebay prices down the line is probably the only way anyone would see any reasonable money flipping these after your expenses are taken into account.

    If this set had some decent current parity with the US then it would have been easier. They’re buying these for £125 each ($200), so the UK reseller is already at a £55 disadvantage.

    IMO this set is 10 years too late – the Simpsons is nowhere near as popular as it used to be.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,953


    IMO this set is 10 years too late – the Simpsons is nowhere near as popular as it used to be.

    Although the different parts now available and different types of minifig parts now possible would mean that this would have been a crap set 10 years ago compared to now.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,841
    Crap set with high demand still sells.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Hmmm anyone know what is going on with 10197 FB? It was listed on sale at [email protected] but now it is back to regular price and sold out. I have only ever seen this occur once before and that was with the UCS Jedi Starfighter when they decided to bring it back for another year. Normally if an item is EOL they will keep the sales price on it until it goes to "retired product". Could be interesting :)
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I think the timing is right for the Simpsons, 10 years ago the Simpsons may have been rating better but Legos popularity, especially among adults has increased significantly since then.

    It is somewhat cool to be into what was once mostly the domain of kids, we have a lot of cashed up 30 something's who love video games, comics, transformers, Big Bang theory etc. who would have grown up watching the Simpsons, they are really going to be into this set.

    I have a number of friends who traditionally aren't into Lego keen to get this and just about every other AFOL in there 30's I have spoken too tell the same story.

    I think it's going to be a hit, the big question is will TLG be ready. I have no doubt that if it sells out in a few days and doesn't come back in stock quickly we could see some crazy eBay prices.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited January 2014
    Honestly, I think this is not so much Lego trying to cash in on The Simpsons, as it is The Simpson's using Lego to help revitalize interest in their overall product.

    And it's working.
    pharmjodwagnerml2BrickDancerLegoFanTexasdragonhawkYellowcastle
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,841
    ^I would agree with that – Simpsons needs Lego more than Lego needs Simpsons IMO. Kids buy Simpsons Lego and start watching Simpsons, rather than Kids watch Simpsons and start wanting Simpsons Lego, IMO.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129

    Hmmm anyone know what is going on with 10197 FB? It was listed on sale at [email protected] but now it is back to regular price and sold out. I have only ever seen this occur once before and that was with the UCS Jedi Starfighter when they decided to bring it back for another year. Normally if an item is EOL they will keep the sales price on it until it goes to "retired product". Could be interesting :)

    Perhaps They are protecting against people returning full price sets to the store and rebuying them at the sale price?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,383

    Hmmm anyone know what is going on with 10197 FB? It was listed on sale at [email protected] but now it is back to regular price and sold out. I have only ever seen this occur once before and that was with the UCS Jedi Starfighter when they decided to bring it back for another year. Normally if an item is EOL they will keep the sales price on it until it goes to "retired product". Could be interesting :)

    My guess is it is LEGO site being SNAFU and a typical error. It was listed on sale when it was 'sold out' as well. My guess is that eventually it will be marked as 'retired' but it is possible some stores somewhere still have physical stock left and that is why it is still listed with a price.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    WVC is still call to check. But I've called to check 3 times and nada. I think it's sold out.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    edited January 2014
    ^If you click into the page it shows sold out. Probably a search cache thing. I did receive one for $79.98 this week when they went back call to check last week with the sale price.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited January 2014

    There are people selling these from the US to the UK (delivered) for less than $300 (£188). If you haven’t considered import tax/duty, or feel lucky that you won’t get your collar felt for it then £250 seems decidedly expensive. Shortages causing a rise in ebay prices down the line is probably the only way anyone would see any reasonable money flipping these after your expenses are taken into account.

    If this set had some decent current parity with the US then it would have been easier. They’re buying these for £125 each ($200), so the UK reseller is already at a £55 disadvantage.

    IMO this set is 10 years too late – the Simpsons is nowhere near as popular as it used to be.

    If thats what is put on the customs declaration, i guarantee the package will NOT get through customs.

    $50 or $60 packages do sometimes get through uncharged if your lucky by the cheapest shipping option.

    Priority mail is far more strict, even just a tiny amount over and your package gets charged.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited January 2014
    There are now over 20 simpsons houses on ebay UK. The 1st auction to finish on ebay UK is at £170 already. Though most of the bids look like shilling to me.
    http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lego-The-Simpsons-House-Set-71006-/151212207329?pt=UK_Construction_Toys_Kits&hash=item2334f32ce1
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,841
    @Legoscott: Well even with the taxes it ends up being a £250 proposition, same as the UK seller, but with the chance that customs misses it.

    As far as we're aware, it isn't in short supply, and no-one is buying those that are out there right now on ebay.com/.co.uk (lots of watchers though - probably rival sellers).

    £180 down and £250 with postage, ebay and paypal take their 13% combined, and you are left with £32. Chances are that over the next few days, some more people will get in, undercut and put them up for as little as £230 delivered (£15 for your troubles). I suppose you've got £9 in VIP points coming your way.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,841
    There's one up for £229 + £7.75 right now.

    http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lego-Exclusive-71006-The-Simpsons-House-Brand-New-Sealed-6-Minifigures-/310846938389?pt=UK_Construction_Toys_Kits&hash=item485febdd15

    £19.23 profit there if you assume the postage costs are inclusive of paypal fees.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Does anyone have a European barcode for #71006? If so can you PM me one.
  • PaperbackwriterPaperbackwriter Member Posts: 105
    "Depends on what you mean by 'high price', many would consider 240 pretty good considering many people bought the for about 120-130 (or lower if you got them during a B2G3F at TRU) back when you could get them on sale."

    Sorry, I can't get excited over making $120 or so on a resale. Percentage wise, that would be great on fire brigade. But this is a hobby for me. I make money elsewhere. And, well, if I could sell a fire brigades and turn a profit of $50,000.....my level of enthusiasm would increase significantly. But most of these reseller discussions concern dollar amounts that are really small potatoes in the larger scheme of things.

    Besides, making $120 on a fire brigade might be a good percentage gain, if the time you spent buying, listing, packaging for shipment has no value to you.

  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    $120 for 10 minutes of my time would be worth it... but that's just me.
    y2joshPitfall69spicemindFollowsCloselyYellowcastlemadforLEGO
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Does anyone have a European barcode for #71006? If so can you PM me one.

    If you know the numbers, there are plenty of free programs that will generate the EAN code for you. In the US, we use the UPC system, which is a different barcode system to the EAN system used in Europe.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Product_Code

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Article_Number_(EAN)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Selling FB on eBay for $240 when you paid $120 for it is NOT a $120 profit...

    Most people here paid tax on the $120. A few don't, but most don't have reseller tax permits.

    The $240 isn't net, there is 13% in eBay/PayPal fees, then about $15 in shipping to take off that.

    It is still profitable, but not nearly by as much as it would seem. In addition, those bought for $120 were bought a year or more ago, not last month. From a return point of view, the copies bought last month for $150 have a far better rate of return on them than the $120 year-old copies.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^ $60 for 10 minutes of time would still be worth it.
    spicemindFollowsCloselyYellowcastlemadforLEGOBTHodgeman
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    10 minutes? Yes, if you do it in volume... But if you're honest about it, at small scales it isn't 10 minutes.

    You have to make the listing, find the box, pack it, drop it off or have it picked up. None of it is a big deal, but it is easy to ignore all that is involved.

    Oh, and you had to put the $120 into the set back in 2012 and store it for a year.

    Again, if you're just doing 5 of them and putting them in your closet and doing it in your spare time to fund your hobby, that's fine. But don't say it is a total of 10 minutes per set, from start to finish.

    So $600 invested 15 months ago, plus your time, to make $300 profit? Not bad actually, depending of course on what you make in your regular job. That $300 buys you SOH or EV, or a pair of modulars.

    Of course, if you add up the time to keep track of the LEGO resale market... :)
    DougoutUKtsumi
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,953



    Of course, if you add up the time to keep track of the LEGO resale market... :)

    But for some people here following markets (whether lego or stock) is a hobby, not a business. I don't cost my time when doing other hobbies.
    y2joshspicemind
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited January 2014


    ...
    Of course, if you add up the time to keep track of the LEGO resale market... :)

    I consider time spent browsing this thread leisure so :P to that point :D
    I can't argue against the rest of your post though :)
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,704
    CCC said:



    Of course, if you add up the time to keep track of the LEGO resale market... :)

    But for some people here following markets (whether lego or stock) is a hobby, not a business. I don't cost my time when doing other hobbies.
    Maybe those sharing information should charge for their consultancy work. Who works for nothing?
    cheshirecatPhonebooth
  • indigoboxindigobox Member Posts: 470
    ^ I feel like I do :D
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2014
    If I can make more then my "real" Job hourly I'm happy. As it's a hobby that I enjoy it doesn't feel like work.
    nkx1Pitfall69
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