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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    I have sold collectable coins, ski gear, books and even Thomas the Tank engine wooden train sets in the past.

    There are a lot of things out there that can be resold, but I find it's things that interest me that I end up reselling. I think that it's just easier that way as it can take a fair amount of time to research successfully and so having interest in the thing your selling makes it not feel like work.
    Yellowcastlepharmjodcloaked7cardgenius
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Any folks going to try and flip the Simspons House? At $300 shipped on ebay and a cost of $180 we are looking at around $66 profit on each set. More than likely there will be a shortage like the Maesrk ship.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ That can be done, but you do get more return requests, angry customers, and negative feedback doing that.

    I've done it, but I try not to do it too often, I find it more stressful than just selling retired sets where customers can't order it 2 weeks later for 40% less than I sold it for. :)
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    edited January 2014
    My local Toy Store is selling #10234 for only €210 ($287). This is way below the €300 on Lego.com. I wonder if this is a bug, i'm thinking of picking up the 3 boxes they have for that money. €210 for #10234 sounds like a good deal for me.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Why? To hold for retirement, or to quick flip them on eBay?

    That set may well be out another 4 years, I wouldn't stash any for a long time.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Hmmm I will have to sleep on it. I have plenty of spare selling accounts so the neg feedback is not an issue. I just don't know if it is worth the effort. Also have to worry about folks coming in and selling at $250 who are just glad to be a part of ebay and don't care about profit.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    There are those as well. I continue to be amazed how many people are willing to work for almost nothing.

    Sometimes, I buy from them, their prices are so low. :)
    TXLegoguy
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Why? To hold for retirement, or to quick flip them on eBay?

    That set may well be out another 4 years, I wouldn't stash any for a long time.

    To keep for retirement actually, i have plenty for spare cash and i think the set will always be worth more than the €210. Cheapest on BL is ~€240.

    I don't think i can sell them at Ebay for ~€300 when it is the same price at Lego.

    The Toy Store also has 15% points to spend on next Lego, not sure it will work on this one but that would make it €178.

  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I think the Simpsons House will be hard to part-out. Half of that thing is just tan bricks.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Which is a plus side, if you want to stock up on tan bricks! :)
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    ^ and ^^ Yes, some people love tan, especially for Star Wars Tatooine mocs. Whereas others like me go for Lovely Bland Grey for their castles.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    ^The problem is that the other half is too "colorful". ;)
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    ^^^ Absolutely - with nearly all of the recent creator houses being white and the shortage of tan on PAB walls, I've found it more difficult to acquire enough tan 1 x Xs at reasonable prices over most of 2013 (other than through GE or maybe #3185 summer riding camp - plus I'm sure I already have 20+ Ramses Pyramid sets for 2xs...)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ lol, ah Rames. I still have a bunch of those. Just stashed them away and never bothered with them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Is The Simpsons House a different version of tan from Tower Bridge? Does Tower Bridge not come with the right parts?
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    edited January 2014
    it is the same color tan. TB contains 362 tan 1x bricks (not counting the 2 high and 5 high column pieces). but if one only wants tan bricks, spending $240 for 360 pieces isn't all that economical and you now have to figure out what to do with all the other pieces. And over half the total is only 1x1s, so it's not exactly a good breakdown either

    I did find the comment interesting though, because tan 1x bricks have been a PAB staple for a couple years now. I've loaded up on 1x2, 1x3, and 1x4 tan bricks that way.
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    edited January 2014
    TB does have a big bagfull of tan parts, albeit 556 of those are the 1x1 cheeses!

    Plus for personal use it's pretty pricey to buy a lot of them just to part out for tan bricks...

    @dougts - i agree, I found a lot in 2011/early 12 on the PAB wall but haven't seen anything in the last 12m (in UK) - and have used up nearly all those I got for various projects that I don't feel like dismantling. Have been campaigning to the store managers to try to get some!
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    edited January 2014
    Is the 10235 to be gone soon? I have the idea it's disappearing.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^WVM...It might disappear from [email protected], but it'll re-appear next spring. They aren't being discounted (yet) as we all had hoped. The stores still have lots from what I heard here.

    It's a lackluster set to me visually - too many small buildings. For parts - it's great. Had they done just the carousel (a re-do on the grand one), that would have been lights out. Then they could have STILL done a market. But I think the big Xmas modular building look is what is the big draw.
  • bricktuarybricktuary Member Posts: 987
    I disagree - it's my favourite. Lots more play than the stupid post office and the enormous bloody carriage which looks ridiculous.

    And it ties in with the theme much better than the bakery (mmm Christmas baguettes).
  • Short_RoundShort_Round Member Posts: 161
    Is Grand Emporium going eol?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,329
    edited January 2014
    ^ Yes. It could go any day now. You should be stocking up soon. I would not wait till summer.
  • bricktuarybricktuary Member Posts: 987
    A great set too.
  • khmellymelkhmellymel Member Posts: 1,313
    Another one I'll have to buy in the aftermarket!
    FollowsClosely
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    prevere said:

    ^WVM...It might disappear from [email protected], but it'll re-appear next spring. They aren't being discounted (yet) as we all had hoped. The stores still have lots from what I heard here.

    This set will be back this fall. This set will not be discounted. IMO it is the weakest Winter Village set. My prediction is inexperienced investors will load up on it this fall at MSRP thinking it will be another 10229....it will not. I will buy a few when TRU throws in a $60 - $70 set for free at the end of this year, but not nearly as many as 10229.

  • Short_RoundShort_Round Member Posts: 161
    FollowsClosely said:

    ^ Yes. It could go any day now. You should be stocking up soon. I would not wait till summer.

    Cheers. I'm not a reseller, just don't want to miss getting a second for an expansion.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    prevere said:

    ^WVM...It might disappear from [email protected], but it'll re-appear next spring. They aren't being discounted (yet) as we all had hoped. The stores still have lots from what I heard here.

    It's a lackluster set to me visually - too many small buildings. For parts - it's great. Had they done just the carousel (a re-do on the grand one), that would have been lights out. Then they could have STILL done a market. But I think the big Xmas modular building look is what is the big draw.

    Agreed. This is far and away my least favorite set, almost entirely because of all the 'polybag-esque' filler. It's a real step down from even the cottage, which
    I also wasn't super fond of. Actually, the toy shop remains my favorite to this day, and I kind of wish they'd move back in that direction.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    prevere said:

    I think the Simpsons House will be hard to part-out. Half of that thing is just tan bricks.

    mmmmmm tan bricks, your my best friend you never let me down.

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    I built all the WV sets this Christmas. Cottage was by far my favorite of the bunch. WVM was by far my least. That said, they ALL will have tremendous aftermarket value for the completeist.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited January 2014
    Short_Round said:

    FollowsClosely said:

    ^ Yes. It could go any day now. You should be stocking up soon. I would not wait till summer.

    Cheers. I'm not a reseller, just don't want to miss getting a second for an expansion.
    Theoretically, you will not be able to get it cheaper than you can today, so if you want one, the only reason I can see to wait is to catch it with some kind of promo like a free set or vip points, etc.

    Of course, while waiting for the perfect promo, it might actually go eol, so it's a gamble. I wouldn't wait past the 5/4 sale though. While I have every expectation that it will be a total dud of a sale, it's likely the only chance for a good deal on an exclusive without waiting until the xmas season.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    FollowsClosely said:

    ^ Yes. It could go any day now. You should be stocking up soon. I would not wait till summer.

    Not sure if you are being serious or sarcastic. In any case it is the older Mod available now so I would not wait, other than you can roll the dice and try to get one during the next Double points, which I think is normally in May. But an indicator usually is when it starts to disappear on [email protected] in Europe (change you region at the site) as they usually start running out of sets there first.
  • Short_RoundShort_Round Member Posts: 161
    So for Grand Emporium, we're talking months, not days? The only reason I asked if it was eol'ing immediately was because I noticed the Brickset page says it's out of stock at [email protected] US and Canada (I'm in the UK), but I've just looked at the US site and it says it's due back in later this month.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    I don't see enough Tan 1x8 bricks in the Simpsons house, unfortunately. TB has 0 and overall is mostly plates. I have never sold any part faster than Tan 1x8 bricks. GE is an incomparable source. You guys holding them MISB are missing out. (Now what to do with 600 Dark Green windows...)
    FollowsClosely
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Grand Emporium will be available through at least 2014. No info on 2015 yet. We can guess it will go at the end of this year like 10197 did at the end of last year, but that would be just a guess. TLG likes to keep us on our toes :)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Short_Round said:

    So for Grand Emporium, we're talking months, not days? The only reason I asked if it was eol'ing immediately was because I noticed the Brickset page says it's out of stock at [email protected] US and Canada (I'm in the UK), but I've just looked at the US site and it says it's due back in later this month.

    The truth is, nobody really knows. People like to act like they they know, but they really don't. Sometimes there is no head's up whatsoever and suddenly boom, the set is gone from retail.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Member Posts: 995
    y2josh said:

    Agreed. This is far and away my least favorite set, almost entirely because of all the 'polybag-esque' filler. It's a real step down from even the cottage, which
    I also wasn't super fond of. Actually, the toy shop remains my favorite to this day, and I kind of wish they'd move back in that direction.

    Aside from the extraneous stuff like the Christmas tree, pond, and gazebo the Toy Shop, Bakery, and Post Office are all very similar buildings. I think if they kept going in the same way it might have gotten stale, so I'm happy enough to have gotten sets that were a bit out of left-field the last two years. It really varies up the village IMO.
    pharmjodFollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited January 2014
    TheLoneTensor said:

    Short_Round said:

    FollowsClosely said:

    ^ Yes. It could go any day now. You should be stocking up soon. I would not wait till summer.

    Cheers. I'm not a reseller, just don't want to miss getting a second for an expansion.
    Theoretically, you will not be able to get it cheaper than you can today, so if you want one, the only reason I can see to wait is to catch it with some kind of promo like a free set or vip points, etc.

    Of course, while waiting for the perfect promo, it might actually go eol, so it's a gamble. I wouldn't wait past the 5/4 sale though. While I have every expectation that it will be a total dud of a sale, it's likely the only chance for a good deal on an exclusive without waiting until the xmas season.
    May the 4th a dud of a sale? As I remember, you got an awesome Hoth Han Solo with your purchase. That right there is worth its weight in chrome. Right @y2josh and @samiam391 ;)

    Legoboy
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited January 2014
    Steve_J_OM said:

    y2josh said:

    Agreed. This is far and away my least favorite set, almost entirely because of all the 'polybag-esque' filler. It's a real step down from even the cottage, which
    I also wasn't super fond of. Actually, the toy shop remains my favorite to this day, and I kind of wish they'd move back in that direction.

    Aside from the extraneous stuff like the Christmas tree, pond, and gazebo the Toy Shop, Bakery, and Post Office are all very similar buildings. I think if they kept going in the same way it might have gotten stale, so I'm happy enough to have gotten sets that were a bit out of left-field the last two years. It really varies up the village IMO.
    I don't disagree that the WV series needed a change from building after building. Ok, so now we have 4+ locations in the village to travel about. Does Lego expect me to trudge along in foot-deep snow to each one?

    How about some rail transportation...
  • jdylakjdylak Member Posts: 281
    A little village of four buildings needs rail transportation?? I guess tho as a City based on Fire and Police sets needs a passenger train for some odd reason...
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^^The wager is still on right fellas? I already have tickets to the showdown between TC and Han.
    LegoboyPitfall69desultor
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    edited January 2014
    Crumbs. Remind me of the detail. :o)
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    I think it was set for Jan. 1, 2015 if I recall correctly. Forgot what the victor wins though. @samiam391 or @y2josh you guys remember what it was?
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    I love it. :oD
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    edited January 2014
    ^^I believe if he wins (*chuckles), I send him a Hoth Han poly. If I win, he sends me a TC-14.

    Lets just say I've already got a nice space reserved for my winnings...

    By the way, not meant to be related to this at all, but if you want to pick up a sealed Hoth Han poly it won't cost you more than $10 on eBay. Did I mention there was free shipping?
    Pitfall69
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    BrickDancer said:

    I think it was set for Jan. 1, 2015 if I recall correctly. Forgot what the victor wins though. @samiam391 or @y2josh you guys remember what it was?

    "Holiday 2014" was the date, which is open to interpretation.

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/172118/#Comment_172118

    Average sold prices on BL over the last six months (for the sealed polybag):
    TC-14: $23.33
    Hoth Han: $11.04

    I'm not expecting a like from @y2josh for this post.
    samiam391LegoFanTexasBrickDancery2joshPitfall69FollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited January 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    TheLoneTensor said:

    Short_Round said:

    FollowsClosely said:

    ^ Yes. It could go any day now. You should be stocking up soon. I would not wait till summer.

    Cheers. I'm not a reseller, just don't want to miss getting a second for an expansion.
    Theoretically, you will not be able to get it cheaper than you can today, so if you want one, the only reason I can see to wait is to catch it with some kind of promo like a free set or vip points, etc.

    Of course, while waiting for the perfect promo, it might actually go eol, so it's a gamble. I wouldn't wait past the 5/4 sale though. While I have every expectation that it will be a total dud of a sale, it's likely the only chance for a good deal on an exclusive without waiting until the xmas season.
    May the 4th a dud of a sale? As I remember, you got an awesome Hoth Han Solo with your purchase. That right there is worth its weight in chrome. Right @y2josh and @samiam391 ;)

    Heh right. I got a crisp Alexander Hamilton for my Hoth Hans, whoopie. In all fairness, the B-wings were a great deal, but one good deal on a market-blah* ship does not a good sale make. If the giveaway does, indeed turn out to be TC-4, yawn. Why doesn't Lego realize that chroming existing, beloved characters > new, obscure ones.

    * Market maybe, but I still love it
    Pitfall69
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    binaryeye said:

    BrickDancer said:

    I think it was set for Jan. 1, 2015 if I recall correctly. Forgot what the victor wins though. @samiam391 or @y2josh you guys remember what it was?

    "Holiday 2014" was the date, which is open to interpretation.

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/172118/#Comment_172118

    Average sold prices on BL over the last six months (for the sealed polybag):
    TC-14: $23.33
    Hoth Han: $11.04

    I'm not expecting a like from @y2josh for this post.
    @binaryeye- But you can expect one from me.
    LegoFanTexaspharmjodstarwarfan77Pitfall69
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited January 2014
    The actual bet I proposed was a chrome (or 14kt) Threepio versus the lame blue version of Hoth Han (which I thought was fitting, because it pitted the only desirable chrome figure against the only undesirable version of Hoth Han). And though I did concede my chances of winning were slim once the B-Wing sale happened, I'm still going to wait for the January 1, 2015 date.

    Plus, if push comes to shove, I have plenty of those awful TC-14 polys lying around that I could sell off for a penny to really tank the average... but then I'd have to feel bad about all the people that I overcharged for a TC-14. ;)

    For what it's worth, I didn't expect a Threepio if I'd won, but I'll absolutely be sending out a Han. Sam deserves at least one good mini.
    rocaoPitfall69
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    After reading this a few days ago, I created a Hans and TC-14 7 days auction on eBay, same terms, end time within 5 minutes. TC-14 sold for $29, Hans for $6 both had $1.69 Shipping.
    After that I created another, it will end in 28h from now, TC-14 is currently at $16.50 and Hans is at $4.99 (starting price)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^My mother always called him Hans Solo, too. And then she would also do Darth Ader for some reason...
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