Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Dad

TheLoneTensor said:

Not quite sure why the reseller thread has become the anything goes thread.

^ Because unlike the pureblood threads, this thread welcomes such viewpoints as complimentary to the discussion.

hendrikdejager

Any thoughts on Orthanc and Ewok Village for the future ?

Bumblepants

^Orthanc could surprise quite a few folks by retiring earlier than many of its 10xxx brethren. Perhaps it sticks around to the end of the year and disappears when the license does. That might catch a lot of folks off-guard making it shoot up fast. But Diagon Alley hung around after the rest of HP was pretty much done so that is probably the more likely route for Orthanc. No way it hangs around DS or FB long though. Ewok seems too new to even bother with at this point.

stevemack

Where there's a will there's a way.... No matter what TLG do, ppl will always find some way to circumvent limits etc!

Back to topic :)

Ewoks going to be around for a loooong time I think, Orthanc not too sure, when does the LOTR license run out?

rancorbait

BrickDancer said:

Have any of you guys built the #41999? I thought it was a fantastic build and well worth the coin.

Yes I have, twice! :-) A great build, an awesome model, rare parts, definitely worth every penny!

rocao

Legoboy said:

This debate isn't about reselling.

I agree with this, and that's why I was careful to write "buyers that circumvent the limit" rather than "resellers that circumvent the limit".

Regarding this being a safe haven for reselling, the difference may be subtle, but I treat this thread as the Wild West that @yellowcastle also does. That means that resellers can discuss reselling until they're red in the face, anyone that doesn't like it should know that from the outset and would be wrong to think that discussion would be curtailed. But safe? :) Heh, no.

That being said, I'm relocating this debate of ideas into the "Community perspective... " thread because it looks like some people actually are trying to discuss retiring sets and predictions. http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/7043/the-community-perspective-on-reselling

Pitfall69

hendrikdejager said:

Guys, what do you think of 853373 LEGO® Kingdoms Chess Set?

prevere said:

Those chess sets fit such a niche crowd, I wouldn't touch it. If I knew they weren't doing another one, maybe 1 or 2.

I bought 2. The part-out is not bad and I know I can at least get my money back. If anything, I can add the minifigures to my castle display :)

Farmer_John

Legofanscott said:

The question is are resellers buying 41999's off resellers? or are resellers buying off scalpers? are scalpers buying off resellers or are scalpers buying off scalpers

LOOOOOL

:D

As the old saying goes, the easiest money is the first money.

TheLoneTensor

Pitfall69 said:

hendrikdejager said:

Guys, what do you think of 853373 LEGO® Kingdoms Chess Set?

prevere said:

Those chess sets fit such a niche crowd, I wouldn't touch it. If I knew they weren't doing another one, maybe 1 or 2.

I bought 2. The part-out is not bad and I know I can at least get my money back. If anything, I can add the minifigures to my castle display :)

I agree, I think in moderate quantities, this is a zero-risk investment. It's a cool set with both widespread and perpetual appeal. Also, I do think it's funny that the original description claimed 32 minifigures, but was then (correctly) adjusted down to 28. My box claims neither, just pictures.

rocao

^ I also agree with what most people are saying: Kingdom's chess has a high floor, low ceiling.

The high floor is because castle and chess are established things that people desire, display, and collect. As mentioned, the price point alone ensures very little risk, and the historical performance of previous LEGO chess sets provides further comfort.

The low ceiling is because it's not particularly great at being either a LEGO set or a chess set. TLG made quite a few of these, so I don't think scarcity is on its side. And TLG will surely make another chess set in a few years time, so that hurts the long value.

wagnerml2

I have a Kingdoms Chess set somewhere. Aren't the figs in that set of the cheap China quality?

rocao

^ Yes. #852293 Giant Chess Set has lower quality figs, too... that hasn't hurt it's value, though :P

wagnerml2

@rocao I've never seen that set. It's pretty cool.

Yellowcastle

I finally snagged Town Hall (am I the only one that loves this one?) from TRU with dusty gift cards. Got to triage Orthanc, Ewoks, R2D2, Parisian, Simpsons House, Haunted House, Arkham and Palace. Imagine Palace, as a modular, will be around for a bit. If I had to prioritize by want, I'd say Orthanc and Haunted House would be my top 2. I think Arkham EOL's first but I'm worried I'm going to guess wrong like I did with the red bird cycle poly, forest firefighter battle pack, Winter Cottage, Duplo Deluxe Train, Thanksgiving dinner and the whole Lone Ranger theme. I was expecting PoP time with Ranger but pow, it's gone. I've picked up most sets from Amazon and TRU but was really thinking that I'd want more stages/trains.

Anyone have any advice on how to triage my list of exclusives above, in order of departure or "don't even risk it, get it immediately"?

SirKevbags

I don't fancy R2 to survive much longer. If the Slave 1 and Sandcrawler do appear that would make it five big box SW sets all out at once. One to many maybe?

Legoboy

rocao said:

^ Yes. #852293 Giant Chess Set has lower quality figs, too... that hasn't hurt it's value, though :P

Every now and again someone will mention that set. My heart jumps with joy as I remember I have one. Somewhere.

monkeyhanger

SirKevbags said:

I don't fancy R2 to survive much longer. If the Slave 1 and Sandcrawler do appear that would make it five big box SW sets all out at once. One to many maybe?

I think it is one of those sets that appeal to a lot of people. Even those with only a vague like of Star Wars can relate to the set, and although it is a big set, it has a small footprint - ideal for display without cluttering the house. I reckon it could outlast SSD by a margin.

TheLoneTensor

Yellowcastle said:

...but I'm worried I'm going to guess wrong like I did with the red bird cycle poly, forest firefighter battle pack, Winter Cottage, Duplo Deluxe Train, Thanksgiving dinner and the whole Lone Ranger theme. I was expecting PoP time with Ranger but pow, it's gone.

As of right now, there are stages and a couple trains available on Amazon at rrp, plus the mine is less than rrp. It's not gone completely yet. Plus, I bet some Thanksgiving dinners will crop up.

madforLEGO

@Yellowcastle I like the Town Hall and I'm sure many do but the price when at retail is a bit prohibitive IMO.
Even still I would be surprised if Amazon is out of the exclusives for good. My guess is, like everywhere else, LEGO is taking time to replenish stocks (Even LEGO stores are somewhat barren after the holidays, the one I go to is saying Mid Jan for restocks to start).
The current trains, by many accounts will likely be gone at the end of this year as the new ones are due out this summer I believe.

What is surprising is the lack of sales going on right now.. maybe it is just the calm before the storm but I have not seen many sales at Walmarts or Targets by me yet, if at all. The silver lining is it is good for my credit cards as this is a nice breather to catch up.

Yellowcastle

I too wonder if R2D2 could be another death star...

I see that LR sets are still avail online, but I guess I had been hoping for the similar PoP sales later on. I'm kicking myself that I didn't participate more in the amazon craziness in Oct/Nov.

y2josh

Yellowcastle said:

Anyone have any advice on how to triage my list of exclusives above, in order of departure or "don't even risk it, get it immediately"?

Of those you listed, my gut feeling is that Orthanc goes first, especially if it's true that there are no more LotR sets in the pipeline. Even if there are, I really can't picture that one hanging on much past the end of the year. Beyond that, I think Arkham and Artoo are the next to go, though I don't expect them to necessarily go anytime soon.

These are just guesses, of course, but in light of current evidence (some anecdotal), Orthanc seems the most likely to drop out first.

Yellowcastle

Consensus seems to be Orthanc first, though I'm really concerned about HH. If only TRU kept it at retail, I'd be on Orthanc with my last giftcards like hair on a gorilla. :o)

dougts

I actually think HH goes before Orthanc. R2 is the wild card. May 4th will be two years for that one.

brickupdate

(my first post here in a loooooong time...)
I agree with @kim43235, which is why I have recently sold off 90% of my LEGO and have little plans on buying none except for a handful of sets this year. I recently did a post on this on my blog (link below, if that is allowed), but the gist is:

1. Too many great sets. LEGO is doing an amazing job, I can't keep up.
2. Too many great sales. You folks in this forum are doing an amazing job finding and sharing them!
3. I'm bored of the "investment" angle of LEGO, it seems like a crowded market, as @kim43235 said
4. It has become difficult to store (and dust) the sets I buy.

So, from now on, I'm just buying a couple of sets I can build and appreciate. That said, i have ALWAYS kept up on LEGO news, and love (love) this great forum. Thanks everyone!
-Dan

That post I mentioned:
http://brickupdate.com/a-new-year-without-lego/

Legofanscott

brickupdate said:

(my first post here in a loooooong time...)
I agree with @kim43235, which is why I have recently sold off 90% of my LEGO and have little plans on buying none except for a handful of sets this year. I recently did a post on this on my blog (link below, if that is allowed), but the gist is:

1. Too many great sets. LEGO is doing an amazing job, I can't keep up.
2. Too many great sales. You folks in this forum are doing an amazing job finding and sharing them!
3. I'm bored of the "investment" angle of LEGO, it seems like a crowded market, as @kim43235 said
4. It has become difficult to store (and dust) the sets I buy.

So, from now on, I'm just buying a couple of sets I can build and appreciate. That said, i have ALWAYS kept up on LEGO news, and love (love) this great forum. Thanks everyone!
-Dan

That post I mentioned:
http://brickupdate.com/a-new-year-without-lego/

I agree with the investment part, i think there are just too many people that are into Lego now.

If sets like the UCS MF and CC were worth half as much as they are today i really think it would be a different story.

Legofanscott

10212 is a good example of a really bad investment and imagine there will be many repeats of this set in years to come, such an amazing model and one of the best UCS models ever made yet is coming up to 2 years past its EOL at the end of this year and is still really struggling to rise in price, and is still along long long way off reaching double its rrp, at least here in the UK anyway

azarbillie

Legofanscott said:

10212 is a good example of a really bad investment and imagine there will be many repeats of this set in years to come, such an amazing model and one of the best UCS models ever made yet is coming up to 2 years past its EOL at the end of this year and is still really struggling to rise in price, and is still along long long way off reaching double its rrp, at least here in the UK anyway

I don't see how 10212 is "a good example of a really bad investment".

It's been what, 14 months since its retirement? And the average trading price for NISB is $371.98 (Brickpicker), which is 43% increase from its retail price of $259.99

I don't know what it is like over there, but I wouldn't pick 10212 as a bad investment according to factual data here in the States at least.

Oh, and did I mention it's absolutely stunning to look at/display?

TheLoneTensor

Legofanscott said:

10212 is a good example of a really bad investment and imagine there will be many repeats of this set in years to come, such an amazing model and one of the best UCS models ever made yet is coming up to 2 years past its EOL at the end of this year and is still really struggling to rise in price, and is still along long long way off reaching double its rrp, at least here in the UK anyway

Hmm, "...is coming up to 2 years past its EOL at the end of this year" is a weird thing to write when it's only 12 days into said year.

And for the record, it's barely over a year since EOL, and not even a year since it really went EOL from Amazon & Target.

And totally agree on the stunning, what a beautiful set, as has been stated many times already.

LegoFanTexas

My last order from Amazon for this set was Jan 11th, 2013. Bought 2 of the last ones in stock from Amazon itself, at full RRP.

I don't recall off the top of my head what the last day it was actually in stock, since the purchase limit resets once per week, but it was within a few days of that I believe.

So we are at 1 year and 1 day from my last RRP purchase of 10212.

Has it done well? All things considered, it is fine. Not great, but fine.

The sad truth is, as much as we all like it, and it is true that it is one of the most impressive models TLG has done, it is a big white shuttle. It doesn't shoot, it doesn't do anything but just fly Vader around.

We love it, but how many of us are there?

Will this set ever reach $1,000?

Hard to say, it might, but it will take awhile.

cloaked7

Legofanscott said:

10212 is a good example of a really bad investment and imagine there will be many repeats of this set in years to come, such an amazing model and one of the best UCS models ever made yet is coming up to 2 years past its EOL at the end of this year and is still really struggling to rise in price, and is still along long long way off reaching double its rrp, at least here in the UK anyway

The return I got on my 10212's I would take for most every LEGO set I've resold. A few have done better, but not many. Bought for $160, sold for $400 w/ free ship. With fees and shipping I will double my money. Very few investments offer that good of a return that quickly.

azarbillie

I can't believe how greedy people are.

10212 appreciated over 40% in 12 months and it's nothing but "fine"? Really? Seriously? *facepalm*

Last time I checked we no longer live in 10179 MF era.

pharmjod

I agree completely. There was a time when anything less than 200-300% ROI was disappointing to me. Now, I'm basically thrilled if I get greater than 40-50% for the "duds" and 80-100%+ for the winners. Crazy thing is that is still a great ROI. My accountant last year was stunned when I essentially told him I couldn't legitimately declare less than an almost 60% NET profit (before taxes). He kept asking if I was sure there were no other expenses I could add. So yeah, people's expectations are somewhat unreasonable at times regarding LEGO as an investment. I think too this is why you see so many people willing to sell at a lower price. To many, a 20-40% gross is a fantastic ROI compared to other things they have experience with.

doriansdad

I think most of us are used to 100% over 1 year after shipping and fees for Lego. Given 10212 is a UCS set, and a good one at that, it is a little disappointing to see where it sits today. I bought all mine for $190 - $195 and would like to see it at $450 by now enroute to $500 by years end. As it is we will be lucky to see it at $400 consistently by years end. Lego is still a nice steady performer but nothing to write home about anymore. Maybe I have been spoiled by more collectible toy lines.

MathBuilder

LegoFanTexas said:

[...]
The sad truth is, as much as we all like it, and it is true that it is one of the most impressive models TLG has done, it is a big white shuttle. It doesn't shoot, it doesn't do anything but just fly Vader around.

And the emperor!

Pitfall69

The days of fast money are behind us friends. There will be some sets that will exceed the 2.5x RRP, but most sets will struggle to get there...if get there at all.

Billybrown

Legofanscott said:

10212 is a good example of a really bad investment and imagine there will be many repeats of this set in years to come, such an amazing model and one of the best UCS models ever made yet is coming up to 2 years past its EOL at the end of this year and is still really struggling to rise in price, and is still along long long way off reaching double its rrp, at least here in the UK anyway

Depend on how you view # 10212 . I bought them at between £160 - £200 mark and I need at least £320 - £400 taking into consideration tax etc. I am lucky to sell 1 every 2 Months at the moment for that price, so its been a bad investment from my point of view when I could have put it into other stock. I only sold one in the lead up to Christmas.

When compared to everything else I sell those sales are pitiful, on the opposite scale there was the friends Camper van which I paid £16.66 each for, those are now reaching £40+ already - just a couple of Month EOL, so it would have been better putting it into that from my point of view. The reason why I didnt was because theres only so much of 1 item that I can stockpile, Im not into get 100's of 1 set, and like to spread things around.

cloaked7

Pitfall69 said:

The days of fast money are behind us friends. There will be some sets that will exceed the 2.5x RRP, but most sets will struggle to get there...if get there at all.

Yup, I agree. There are several reasons for this and they've been mentioned. That's why I'm slowly getting out of the LEGO reselling business. That should help the rest of you. Less competition. :-)

CCC

That's why now the skill is not buying the right set at RRP, but buying the right set at the right time.

Even complete dogs can be winners, if you purchase them at the right price. Who cares if they barely make RRP if you bought them at 75% off.

Legofanscott

CCC said:

That's why now the skill is not buying the right set at RRP, but buying the right set at the right time.

Even complete dogs can be winners, if you purchase them at the right price. Who cares if they barely make RRP if you bought them at 75% off.

Im strictly not a reseller but i do find it fun and exciting buying 1 or 2 sets and seeing how well they do after they retire.

I personally think that is far more rewarding than being a reseller, buying the same set over and over again, trying to find as much space as possible to put everything and trying to find boxes big enough to ship sets in doesnt sound fun to me, then youve got those few buyers who are a real pain to deal with and its not hard to find one on ebay :(

wagnerml2

Anyone else getting requests for LR stuff over RRP? Sold a silver mine that I just picked up off yoyo for $39 for $90 on Saturday. This one still has me perplexed. Movie bombed, but cowboy theme generally does well. I guess we shall see.

BrickDancer

^I think LR will out-perform expectations once you get past the 1-year post eol timeframe.

doriansdad

cloaked7 said:

That's why I'm slowly getting out of the LEGO reselling business. That should help the rest of you. Less competition. :-)

Same here. Scaling back and entering less saturated markets with much better margins and much less competition. I will always hold some lego but am scaling back to around 30% of my entire portfolio instead of the usual 90%.

wagnerml2

@doriansdad - I'm curious, not asking you to name the other markets, but I thought about doing the same thing. I determined that I would not be successful in another market as I probably didn't understand it. Part of my success in my 20 year sports collectable business and subsequently my Lego re-selling is an understanding of the market because I collected and had been active in the hobby for some time. I don't have that experience in the, say, Barbie market (for lack of a better example), therefore my ability to forecast and invest would be severely compromised. Just wondering if you collect/dabble in those other markets already or are you going to learn them from scratch?

doriansdad

I have been active in other toy markets since mid last year. I was not previously a collector in those markets so had to do some research and get involved in their associated forums as well. I mainly stick to limited edition runs of other toys. If ever a site like brickpicker emerges for those toys then I know it is time to move on. My wife has been a huge help as some of the new toy lines I have invested in are aimed at girls and women. For me it was fun learning from scratch. I feel Lego has really stagnated so it is time to reel it back in.

prevere

There's a market for every toy that has ever existed. But Lego is one of the few with amazing versatility and global interest.

Go ahead and part-out some Transformers and see how far you get. (Although I did find a laser gun for Construction Hook in a Lego bin recently, and promptly sold it for $5...so you never know).

doriansdad

Funnily enough TRU Prime mp10 and Soundwave mp13 have been some items that have performed very well for me.

cloaked7

Yup, there are definitely other toy/gaming lines that are very profitable for reselling. Well, there were in the past, and I figure it hasn't changed. You just need to find how what is. The most profitable toy/game I resold was Wizkids Mechwarrior and Mage Knight figures. Did that for about 5 years about 15 years ago. Course, eBay was lots different then, and that was pre PayPal. :-) So, the fees were lower.

I tell ya, they were lots easier to store and ship than LEGOS. :-) Another key aspect was hugely different, the timing was 180 degrees different. You had to sell them as soon as they came out, not store them past retirement. Timing was everything. They weren't collectible. You didn't sit on them, not even for a day or week. You sold them for 2 weeks after the release date like a crazy man, then you couldn't give them away. But, be the first one on eBay with the figures and it was insane what the profits were. I had a lot of repeat customers too. Not like today.

Oh yeah, one time I got a few of one specific LE Mech pre-release. Sold them for over 1,000 percent profit, and all of them in 1 day! Those were good times. :-)

BuriedinBricks

@prevere - I was amazed at some of the prices I pulled for parts from old GI Joe toys. Random guns and other pieces from figures I could not salvage often went for more than the figure on its own would have. Parts from incomplete vehicles also turned out good returns.

Dad

CCC said:

That's why now the skill is not buying the right set at RRP, but buying the right set at the right time.

Even complete dogs can be winners, if you purchase them at the right price. Who cares if they barely make RRP if you bought them at 75% off.

^ This. I've been saying that 'profit is made when you buy it' for some time but I still don't think the message has got through to some.

Hogwarts Castle @ £50, Hogwarts @ £25, Forbidden Forest @ £5, Technic Excavator @ £90, Technic Supercar @ £60, Passenger Plane @ £17, Airport @£40, Two Face Chase @ £22, Batcave @ £37, Technic Helicopter @ £29, Lighthouse @ £20.

Which of these were never going to make anyone enough profit?

y2josh

cloaked7 said:

Yup, there are definitely other toy/gaming lines that are very profitable for reselling. Well, there were in the past, and I figure it hasn't changed. You just need to find how what is. The most profitable toy/game I resold was Wizkids Mechwarrior and Mage Knight figures. Did that for about 5 years about 15 years ago. Course, eBay was lots different then, and that was pre PayPal. :-) So, the fees were lower.

I tell ya, they were lots easier to store and ship than LEGOS. :-) Another key aspect was hugely different, the timing was 180 degrees different. You had to sell them as soon as they came out, not store them past retirement. Timing was everything. They weren't collectible. You didn't sit on them, not even for a day or week. You sold them for 2 weeks after the release date like a crazy man, then you couldn't give them away. But, be the first one on eBay with the figures and it was insane what the profits were. I had a lot of repeat customers too. Not like today.

Oh yeah, one time I got a few of one specific LE Mech pre-release. Sold them for over 1,000 percent profit, and all of them in 1 day! Those were good times. :-)

Sounds like HeroClix these days (though, the non-X-Men sets have become more difficult to shift, even in the opening days... and DC is an absolute dog at this point. I feel like the game may be on its way out again).