Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

luckyruss · January 2014

@wrangler6915, how many are you after, just one of each?

dragonhawk · January 2014

margot said:

wrangler6915 said:
Anyone in the UK willing to take delivery of 50011, 50003, and 50006 and then ship to the US? The seller noted in @bricknation post wont ship to the US.

If you're willing, please PM me!
Thx
50006 sells in the US, toysrus...

They are also 30% off at LEGO B&M stores. YMMV of course. The box is thinner than the average LEGO games though.

wagnerml2 · January 2014

@bumblepants - Thanks. I think I may go ahead and do that.

azarbillie · January 2014

I wonder what is going to happen to Tower Bridge... Feels dangerously close to retirement hmm

bricktuary · January 2014

That reminds me - I still need to build mine. It's a bit daunting. ..

On Amazon.it at €180 btw.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

azarbillie said:
I wonder what is going to happen to Tower Bridge... Feels dangerously close to retirement hmm

It will be out for the rest of this year...

I sold all my copies last year when I figured out that it wasn't going last summer. I recently purchased 2 more and will probably put back 6 of them total, but it simply has been out too long to perform anything like TM did.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-Wars-Millennium-Falcon/dp/B004P95ABG/

Anyone who was concerned this was retired, Amazon has it back in stock at RRP.

Probably be on sale again, but if you don't want to risk missing it, there you go. :)

azarbillie · January 2014

LegoFanTexas said:

azarbillie said:
I wonder what is going to happen to Tower Bridge... Feels dangerously close to retirement hmm
It will be out for the rest of this year...

I sold all my copies last year when I figured out that it wasn't going last summer. I recently purchased 2 more and will probably put back 6 of them total, but it simply has been out too long to perform anything like TM did.

You really think so?
I was actually giving it like end of Feb..Hmm..

Yeah, I don't think it's going to perform like TM.. That's for sure.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

^ That is my understanding... granted, I've been wrong before, so don't get upset if I'm mistaken.

If you're buying for yourself, now is the time. Waiting for a sale now is very risky since it could of course go sooner.

azarbillie · January 2014

LegoFanTexas said:
^ That is my understanding... granted, I've been wrong before, so don't get upset if I'm mistaken.

If you're buying for yourself, now is the time. Waiting for a sale now is very risky since it could of course go sooner.

Yeah I am looking around since its for myself but I cant bloody find one on sale :X

azarbillie · January 2014

I will not pay retail! Dare me LEGO! Haha this is going to bite me in the ass. Lol

vitreolum · January 2014

No worries, you can always pay 1.5x retail. :))

madforLEGO · January 2014

I dunno. To those saying there will be too many out there for the tb to go up, it now it appears #10197 is climbing, seeing average selling on eBay now at $225 per. Not bad for something out 5 years and only unavailable via retail for about 20-30 days.

vitreolum · January 2014

Cheapest in Europe on BL is Eur 175... seems like only yesterday it was EUR 120-130. I'm almost tempted to get the remaining ones in stores at EUR 155.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

azarbillie said:
I will not pay retail! Dare me LEGO! Haha this is going to bite me in the ass. Lol

You don't have to, just wait 12 months and pay over retail! :)

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

azarbillie said:
Yeah I am looking around since its for myself but I cant bloody find one on sale :X

The days of getting these for $180 are probably over, waiting for a sale now is playing a risky game.

Which is why I said if you're buying for yourself to build, I would not wait any longer.

Full retail will look really cheap in a year or two. :)

Who here would be happy to pay the full $300 RRP for TM today? :)

Dad · January 2014

madforLEGO said:
I dunno. To those saying there will be too many out there for the tb to go up, it now it appears #10197 is climbing, seeing average selling on eBay now at $225 per. Not bad for something out 5 years and only unavailable via retail for about 20-30 days.

I agree. TB will do just fine if it retires 2014. #10197 will be fine too. Just let the resellers offload at 1.5 x RRP in the first half of this year and it will be 2 x RRP approaching Christmas. Ok, we may have been sat on them longer than we wished but sometimes you've just got to jump on a horse and ride it. I didn't hold them for an extra two years just to dump them immediately after EOL. If I was going to do that I'd have dumped them two years ago at a 20% loss. In fact I piled in for more of them when they were on sale at Christmas at 30% off.
If a man knocks on my front door wanting one at 1.5 x RRP then he can have it all day long but I'll still be holding 10 of them for Christmas 2015

doriansdad · January 2014

I'll be stocking up on TB this pre-BF sale. Nice set.

hoyatables · January 2014

LegoFanTexas said:

azarbillie said:
I wonder what is going to happen to Tower Bridge... Feels dangerously close to retirement hmm
It will be out for the rest of this year...

I sold all my copies last year when I figured out that it wasn't going last summer. I recently purchased 2 more and will probably put back 6 of them total, but it simply has been out too long to perform anything like TM did.

Thanks again, LFT :).

I am surprised at the Fire Brigade price. Part of this may simply be that only the "professional" resellers have listed so far, and they have all listed at a price that is high enough to recoup costs, and ensure a modest profit after fees. In other words, no one else is coming in to undercut them. Or maybe it is simply that no reseller is going to go under $200-225 because then they are losing money.

legoprods · January 2014

If someone is getting 200$ for a FB and you are losing money he may as well get out of the secondary market.

On the FB price increase, it's probably the EOL "hype". People worried that maybe in a month they could be sold higher, that there won't be any more, and people buying them cheap just because they think that the price will continue like this for some months, to flip it in 1-2 months for a 25$ profit.

doriansdad · January 2014

There is obviously alot more demand for FB than most of us anticipated. Good times :)

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

^ There are a shocking number of people who are willing to buy a FB today for $225 and flip it in 2-3 months for $25 profit...

I shouldn't be surprised, but I still am anyway. :)

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

doriansdad said:
There is obviously alot more demand for FB than most of us anticipated. Good times :)

Maybe...

#41999 shot up in price after it came out as well, only to fall.

The demand is due to it EOLing right now and everyone who missed it to race out and buy one, the price doesn't have to follow a smooth curve up, it can also come back down.

Over time, people will forget about it and move on, more modulars will come out, it may or may not do well over time.

Even if it gets to $300 in a year or two, or even $500 in 5 years, the return on investment from buying 30 days ago and selling today for $225 is hard to beat. :)

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

#6862 has been mentioned several times...

This seems to be a more common event, I now count about a dozen items that Amazon itself is selling above RRP, including this one.

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Super-Heroes-Superman-Power/dp/B005VPRF2K/

At the time I'm posting this, Amazon has this in stock (Amazon Retail, not a 3rd party seller) for $24.94.

This is current and in stock at [email protected] for $19.99.

Nuts...

y2josh · January 2014

^Ah... I miss M-Tron.

So far as I can tell, though, that $24.94 price is FbA, rather than Amazon itself. Amazon actually appears to be out of stock.

79012 is a good example of what you're talking about, though.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

Nope... It is from Amazon...

What makes you think it is a third party FBA seller? It clearly says "Ships from and sold by Amazon.com"

Are you seeing something other than the below two images?

legogregors · January 2014

The link took me to a 3rd party when I clicked on it earlier but now shows the amazon.com. Same price point and very strange for amazon.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

Sheesh, Jake's Pirate Ship is $39.99 RRP, Amazon is selling it for $56.99.

That is a 42% markup over RRP.

y2josh · January 2014

legogregors said:
The link took me to a 3rd party when I clicked on it earlier but now shows the amazon.com. Same price point and very strange for amazon.

Same here. It also suggested that Amazon would be getting more stock on January 15th. Their site has been extremely erratic lately, though, so it doesn't shock me that much, in all honesty.

EDIT: For example, every single one of those links (except Superman and Mirkwood) that LFT JUST posted come up as being from third party sellers for me.

JeffH · January 2014

^LFT, if you pay attention, all of those sets are either out of stock or completely off Walmart.com listing. Amazon is locked in direct price competition with Walmart and I can image all those 3rd party sellers have been hit pretty hard if Amazon keeps the price both aligned with Walmart and consistently below RRP all years long. They may do this to just accommodate the 3rd party sellers.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

Most of them are still showing Amazon as the seller and still over RRP.

See this new screen shot, taken just now.

y2josh · January 2014

I don't doubt you're seeing what you're seeing. I'm just saying Amazon's site has been REALLY erratic lately, including, it seems, who they're listing as the seller.

As another example, I looked at the brick bucket (5508) as soon as I read your post, and it was listed at $49.99 (The $75.00 bucket is used, comes from a third party, and apparently includes a bonus green base plate).

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

Also, take a look on the right side of the screen, sometimes it will look like this.

Look at the "More Buying Choices" list.

This one shows $28.02 from a FBA seller, but down on the right it shows Amazon.com as a seller at $27.50.

If you mouse over it, it shows the second picture, In stock on Jan 16th. The price is still well over RRP, that set has a RRP of $14.99 making Amazon's price 83% over RRP.

JeffH · January 2014

Look it this way, #5508 may be listed $75 at the time you posted, Walmart just get them back to stock and guess what, Amazon is now back to 49 even though the search page still shows 75. I think my theory above has some leg.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

JeffH said:
^LFT, if you pay attention, all of those sets are either out of stock or completely off Walmart.com listing. Amazon is locked in direct price competition with Walmart and I can image all those 3rd party sellers have been hit pretty hard if Amazon keeps the price both aligned with Walmart and consistently below RRP all years long. They may do this to just accommodate the 3rd party sellers.

I am aware of that... But Amazon never used to sell over RRP, even if they had the last stock left anywhere. When we did the big UCS Imperial Shuttle Countdown, Amazon had the last stock left online anywhere, and they never marked them up over RRP.

This is new behavior for Amazon.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

y2josh said:
I don't doubt you're seeing what you're seeing. I'm just saying Amazon's site has been REALLY erratic lately, including, it seems, who they're listing as the seller.

Amazon does not show the same offer to every customer, it depends on where the items are in their various warehouses (they have warehouses in 19 states now I believe), it depends on if the buyer is Prime or not, and of course it depends on the buyer's history.

The actual offers are fixed, as far as I know, but which offer is promoted front and center does change.

y2josh said:
As another example, I looked at the brick bucket (5508) as soon as I read your post, and it was listed at $49.99 (The $75.00 bucket is used, comes from a third party, and apparently includes a bonus green base plate).

Yep, they just changed it. Amazon changes prices like my daughter changes her clothes. :)

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

Here is another good example. Two pictures, one of the primary item page, the second from the complete list of "new" offers.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00CNBGUHQ/

Amazon clearly is promoting their own sale of this item at $18.99. There is a third party seller at $18.80 for 19 cents less, FBA, fulfilled by Amazon but sold by a third party seller.

Emma's Sports Car has a RRP of $14.99, for what it is worth. :)

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Emma-s-Sports-Car-41013

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

JeffH said:
Look it this way, #5508 may be listed $75 at the time you posted, Walmart just get them back to stock and guess what, Amazon is now back to 49 even though the search page still shows 75. I think my theory above has some leg.

You may be right, Emma's Sports Car is out of stock at Walmart.com right now.

madforLEGO · January 2014

LegoFanTexas said:

doriansdad said:
There is obviously alot more demand for FB than most of us anticipated. Good times :)
Maybe...

#41999 shot up in price after it came out as well, only to fall.

The demand is due to it EOLing right now and everyone who missed it to race out and buy one, the price doesn't have to follow a smooth curve up, it can also come back down.

Over time, people will forget about it and move on, more modulars will come out, it may or may not do well over time.

Even if it gets to $300 in a year or two, or even $500 in 5 years, the return on investment from buying 30 days ago and selling today for $225 is hard to beat. :)

I think comparing it to #41999 is not a fair comparison. Many vastly underestimate the draw of Fire Brigade. It is a Mod, which I believe the Mods are more sought after than Technic, at least in the US. AND it is a fire station, which will likely not be reproduced nor will another one be made as a mod, at least for some time (likely a police station may be done in which case may spur demand for FB as well)

juggles7 · January 2014

Day before yesterday, Amazon pre-sold or took reservations for #21007 Architecture Rockefeller Center. It didn't last long. It was priced at $45, which is $5 above its regular retail price of 40, for a 12% markup. Amazon has worked very hard, for very little profit, to earn market share. At some point they may start to exploit their market share, raising their prices. It may have already started.

jcb193 · January 2014

Thoughts on the Simpsons Legos set? Simpsons has a long history of merchandise, but I think it peaked 15-20yrs ago. But any long term value in the base set?

nkx1 · January 2014

juggles7 said:
...Amazon has worked very hard, for very little profit, to earn market share. At some point they may start to exploit their market share, raising their prices. It may have already started.

It really depends on how you define profit. When forced to view profit through the confines of a balance sheet, perhaps Amazon's profit is "very little" (in fact, Amazon has consistently lost money). However, Amazon has been quite profitable for some people, most notably Jeff Bezo's, whos net worth is currently around $36B if celebritynetworth.com is to be believed.

With regard to exploiting market share by over-charging people, that probably wont work. Just ask Best Buy (yeah, they had a lucky 2013, but I doubt they'll keep it up unless they're able to keep prices low). Amazon currently offers relatively little in the way of proprietary products/services- they're generally a reseller of other companies' stuff. Once people see they're being over-charged by Amazon (such as for Lego), they'll likely shop elsewhere. Amazon isn't Apple.

All of this is just my opinion, of course.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

^ Depends on how long it is out for. Long term value? Yes. More or less than anything else you could put your money into? Way too early to even guess at.

nkx1 · January 2014

^^I meant income statement, not balance sheet.

JamesJT · January 2014

jcb193 said:
Thoughts on the Simpsons Legos set? Simpsons has a long history of merchandise, but I think it peaked 15-20yrs ago. But any long term value in the base set?

Simpsons' house is $199.99 in US (~£125) but £179.99 (~$288) in UK! I will be importing my copies.

LegoFanTexas · January 2014

^ The US price does not include sales tax, the UK price does include VAT, it does make some difference.

khmellymel · January 2014

^ Yes, by the time the shipping is factored in it may not be that good a deal.
You'll get a better deal going US-UK instead of CAN-UK of course; difference between UK and Canadian price after sales tax (BC, Canada, is what I went with) and exchange is accounted for is (roughly) $50 (bit more), but shipping from Canada will be about that much, so it's not really worth it.

Difference between US-UK is about $75, though (accounting for let's say an 8% sales tax)... so depending on how much you can get it shipped for (not too familiar with US-UK shipping anymore), that could potentially be a deal, but if it's as expensive as Canadian shipping, you're only saving about $25, which is £15.

YMMV, depending on deal/sales tax area/shipping price/exchange rates on the day! And of course these are pretty rough approximations, but I do figures like these pretty much everyday of my life as an international student :(

Legofanscott · January 2014

JamesJT said:

jcb193 said:
Thoughts on the Simpsons Legos set? Simpsons has a long history of merchandise, but I think it peaked 15-20yrs ago. But any long term value in the base set?
Simpsons' house is $199.99 in US (~£125) but £179.99 (~$288) in UK! I will be importing my copies.

Yes, but you'll probably have to pay VAT and import fees and top of the 199.99 unless you somehow pursuade someone to put a low value on the customs when importing

Gavin83 · January 2014

JamesJT said:

jcb193 said:
Thoughts on the Simpsons Legos set? Simpsons has a long history of merchandise, but I think it peaked 15-20yrs ago. But any long term value in the base set?
Simpsons' house is $199.99 in US (~£125) but £179.99 (~$288) in UK! I will be importing my copies.

With 20% added on (so about £25) plus their fees (which is about £12 I believe) and also delivery, which from the US isn't cheap your probably looking at about the same price.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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