Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

doriansdad

I have never sold on Amazon and don't intend to do so. Honestly I am very lazy and have no intention of holding someone's hand thru a transaction so I would not be a good fit for Amazon. I much prefer to sell overseas to dealers and collectors rather than moms and dads in the US. 95% of my sales are overseas.

Basta

LegoFanTexas said:

jcb193 said:

I think the Marina Bay Sands is a little bit of a stretch for being architecturally significant, and also for having any mass appeal. 99% of people probably don't even know what country (city) it is in, and I don't think it is known for anything other than having a cool swimming pool. Odd choice for Lego. This was the best they could come up with for Asian architecture? That said, I don't know if any of the pieces are unique or rare, as that could affect it.

I had not even heard of this set, if that tells you anything. :)

Now that I see it, I still don't care. :)

To be honest the Lego set doesn't really give you a sense of the actual size and scale of the building. It is huge and when I was in Singapore I couldn't stop looking at it from across the bay, it is one very impressive building.

IMO Marina Bay Sands, if not already, will be considered "architecturally significant" don't forget it's only been up a few years, I'd imagine these things take time.

khmellymel

^ I had never heard of it either, until I got to Singapore last year with some friends. The Marina Bay Sands is a gorgeous building, inside and out - I couldn't stop taking pictures of it (not to mention, the museum outside the building is where I saw Nathan Sawaya's Art of the Brick exhibit, so this particular set holds a lot of significance for me!).

timinchicago

I just called to order #10241 Maersk Line Triple-E and found out it is back ordered until 30 Jan 2014. This set only came out two days ago and AFAIK was not offered for pre-sale. Is this a case of LEGO underestimating the demand or just an unusually small initial production run? The S&H rep was perplexed by this and could not provide an explanation other than mentioning that something similar happened with the Architecture Studio recently.

I also asked the S&H rep about #9516 Jabba's Palace and he confirmed that they would be receiving a "full production batch" this month.

jcb193

khmellymel said:

^ I had never heard of it either, until I got to Singapore last year with some friends. The Marina Bay Sands is a gorgeous building, inside and out - I couldn't stop taking pictures of it (not to mention, the museum outside the building is where I saw Nathan Sawaya's Art of the Brick exhibit, so this particular set holds a lot of significance for me!).

I've seen it too, but I guess it didn't have as much of an impression on me. Maybe if I had stayed there, but regardless, is it one of the most architecturally interesting building in Asia? Or the world?

rocao

It's a new building so it doesn't measure up in historical significance if that's what you mean, but my answer to your question would be: "Yes, it is one of the most architecturally interesting buildings in Asia or the world."

From Wikipedia: "The engineering for the project was headed by Arup and Parsons Brinkerhoff (MEP/ELV). Arup had originally worked on prestigious projects such as the Beijing National Aquatics Centre and the Sydney Opera House. In spite of their experience in constructing challenging designs, the Marina Bay Sands project was described as the 'most difficult to carry out in the whole world' due to the amount of integration of the varied and advanced technologies needed to complete the project."

legoprods

Even though the building is impressive, I think that the set fails to look impressive (which is understandable on a small set for a big building (cough Opera)). Besides, I see the small Architecture sets as a must have for a very reduced amount if people, at over RRP. Also known as money-holder.

Those are the sets that are only worth when bought at discounts and selling at RRP.

rocao said:

From Wikipedia: "The engineering for the project was headed by Arup and Parsons Brinkerhoff (MEP/ELV).

Didn't know he was into architecture as well, thought his "project" was only music. ;-)

LegoFanTexas

legoprods said:

Cheers for the words of advice. I may follow up if I ever sell anything, and how it goes. Indeed, I remember seeing your "this ain't eBay" thread as well as some other horror stories. Knock on wood!

Amazon is an interesting beast, you really have to know what you're doing, or you'll get pounced on being a new seller.

---------------

https://sellercentral.amazon.com/forums/thread.jspa?threadID=189281

This guy is upset because he listed an item as "used-like new", and in the condition notes said "doesn't come in the retail box".

That is a violation and Amazon will instantly side with the buyer in an A-to-Z claim, which you'll lose, Amazon will refund, and you probably won't get your item back (unless it is over $300).

For example, here are the Amazon condition guidelines for "used-like new":

•Used - Like New: An apparently untouched item in perfect condition. Original protective wrapping may be missing, but the original packaging is intact and pristine. There are absolutely no signs of wear on the item or its packaging. Instructions are included. Item is suitable for presenting as a gift.

For what it is worth, all of your "shelf wear" "new in sealed box" items? Yea, those have to be listed "used-very good" at best.

If you grade better (or worse, list them as new), if the customer files a claim, you lose.

New items on Amazon are just that, new. No box damage, nothing opened, nothing crushed, brand new, perfect condition, gift quality.

LegoFanTexas

BTW, just to be clear, there are buyers who search out such listing violations from new sellers and buy them, hoping to get a free item. Often new sellers don't really understand the rules and it costs them an item or two before they go and spend a few hours reading all the rules.

And yes, there are 2 to 3 hours worth of reading of rules on Amazon, to really understand that place.

eBay? You can list an item as "new", but with pictures and a specific item description, be much more likely to not have any problems. Buyers there expect to get what is in the picture. Buyers at Amazon expect to get what Amazon would send them.

madforLEGO

timinchicago said:

I also asked the S&H rep about #9516 Jabba's Palace and he confirmed that they would be receiving a "full production batch" this month.

Take whatever any LEGO rep says with a big grain of salt to be honest. If you call LEGO CS/[email protected] and talk to five people you will likely get 5 different answers.

Hardrada

LegoFanTexas said:

For example, here are the Amazon condition guidelines for "used-like new":

•Used - Like New: An apparently untouched item in perfect condition. Original protective wrapping may be missing, but the original packaging is intact and pristine. There are absolutely no signs of wear on the item or its packaging. Instructions are included. Item is suitable for presenting as a gift.

For what it is worth, all of your "shelf wear" "new in sealed box" items? Yea, those have to be listed "used-very good" at best.

So as most Lego sets don't have protective wrapping in case of Lego 'Used - Like New' seems to be a pointless option. Or does it allow for an open but otherwise nice condition box?

Also I've received several Lego sets with damaged boxes from Amazon. (Their shipping boxes are quite lightweight and not too strong.) Would be great if they held themselves to the same standards and I could keep them for free.:)

stevemack

I sold a few things on amazon recently and would never use it again tbh! That a-z thing is awful, they will not listen to sellers at all. Basically they will never let a buyer lose out even if they are clearly committing fraud etc!

LegoFanTexas

stevemack said:

I sold a few things on amazon recently and would never use it again tbh! That a-z thing is awful, they will not listen to sellers at all. Basically they will never let a buyer lose out even if they are clearly committing fraud etc!

At the bottom of Amazon customer service e-mails (to buyers), they sign off with:

"Did I help solve your problem?"

Then it has a (yes) and a (no) box, then it says:

"Your feedback is helping us build Earth's Most Customer-Centric Company."

----------

I've said it before, I'll say it again. They are *not* kidding.

Amazon will bend over backwards, twice, then sideways, and maybe into a pretzel, before they ever say no to a customer.

On the plus side, Amazon continues to grow by 20% per year, largely due to that service (because they are no longer the cheapest on everything like they used to be).

LegoFanTexas

As a buyer, I buy everything from Amazon, or at least almost everything. Just today my subscribe and save items arrived.

Including 4 jars of natural peanut butter, coffee creamer, and English Breakfast tea for my wife.

We get about 25 different items each month that we used to buy at Walmart, from Amazon, including paper towels, coffee, potato chips, trash bags, etc.

The price is, more or less, about the same as Walmart, but everything just comes to the door.

VaderX

*Prediction*

10197 Fire Brigade will hit close to 300$ this Christmas (2014)

I just listed my only one on feebay @ 225 plus a solid shipping rate
and it sold in one day... yikes!

Legofanscott

LegoFanTexas said:

As a buyer, I buy everything from Amazon, or at least almost everything. Just today my subscribe and save items arrived.

Including 4 jars of natural peanut butter, coffee creamer, and English Breakfast tea for my wife.

We get about 25 different items each month that we used to buy at Walmart, from Amazon, including paper towels, coffee, potato chips, trash bags, etc.

The price is, more or less, about the same as Walmart, but everything just comes to the door.

Don't Walmart deliver to your door?

Here in the UK ASDA which is part of WALMART deliver to your door, as do most other supermarkets.

LegoFanTexas

^ Walmart ships to your door, but not that sort of stuff, at least not for the prices and convenience Amazon does.

I don't know if Amazon has something like Subscribe and Save in the UK, but in short, it allows regular deliveries of commonly purchased items for 20% off. You can get them once every month, every other month, every third month, etc. Change the orders any time about 5 days before the delivery is set (it all comes the same day each month), cancel any time, no commitment.

Thousands and thousands of items can be purchased this way, for 20% off and free delivery. There is a simple page showing all your items, so you can easily move items up and down (to this month, or next month) if you have enough or need extra.

Amazon also has FAR superior customer service, if something arrives broken (it does sometimes, glass food containers do break from time to time), just e-mail them and they'll send you a replacement for free, 2 day delivery, no need to fuss with the return on the broken item.

That service level is worth something to me. :)

And frankly, the cost of Cheerios from Amazon is almost exactly the same as Walmart, about $2.50 a box delivered. (my 3 kids eat a lot of Cheerios!)

SirKevbags

Why is tea called English Breakfast Tea? It's just regular tea. Silly marketing. @LegoFanTexas Treat the Mrs to Ringtons tea http://www.ringtons.co.uk/tea-c1/tea-bags-c2/ringtons-traditional-tea-bags-80-p3

She won't go back. Mine is delivered by the tea van but they do worldwide delivery now. If it's silly money I'll send you some. Wonderful stuff. (Miles off topic but it is THIS thread)

SuperTramp

Also suggest some Ringtons Shortbread Rounds. go perfectly with the tea.

joel4motion

We have a few items on a subscribe and save option but the ones I have seen only have 5% off and seem to be extremely optimistic about ones usage of the product.

Anyway, back to reselling... With most of the last wave of Batman gone, what are the expectations for the smaller sets? I like the small arctic set myself and it was often available at silly prices considering the minifigs but what about the midrange stuff (tumbler, batwing etc)

iso3200

@Tom4086 I think that #21021 Marina Bay Sands could be a nice sleeper set and one that will surprise many. It's come out largely unnoticed except to devout architecture-heads, and coupled with its region based exclusivity and limited production run, it has all the qualifications of being a highly collectible set.

When the Architecture line first came out I thought they were overpriced for what you actually get. On the whole I still do, even when at sale prices, sets like #21001, #21002 and #21007 just don't seem to offer good value for money and the building experience and end result looks to be dull. The range seems to be improving though, and I think more people will get into it over time.

After looking for a long long time I finally bought my first Architecture set in November, but now I've actually built one and displayed it I'm hooked and have had to get more.

I think for resellers there's not a great deal to be made from this line with the exception of a few sets, and #21021 will be one of them. As a model it makes a great shelf partner for #21018 United Nations HQ which increases its visual appeal.

Architecture Studio has proved that there are surprises to be had, and lets face it, that's just a bunch of white bricks in a fancy box.

I think Christmas 2014 will see a small amount of these on eBay with quite a hefty premium on them. Sure they have limited appeal, and for a reseller to source a large amount and stockpile would be a risk, but to get a few sets while available to make some bonus bucks at the end of the year it could pay off.

I already see Architecture as something of a niche, and now it may be that #21021 is a niche product within a niche. I think in time it may become a classic in the Architecture range and highly prized.

I suspect many resellers will have overlooked this one, and with not so many of the already limited run stockpiled for a later date I think anyone with a few put by will make a fair profit on them.

LegoFanTexas

joel4motion said:

We have a few items on a subscribe and save option but the ones I have seen only have 5% off and seem to be extremely optimistic about ones usage of the product.

The more you add the bigger the discount. It starts at 5% and grows to 20%. I forget the number of items you have to buy each month to get to that number, 15 or 20 I think.

LegoFanTexas

SirKevbags said:

(Miles off topic but it is THIS thread)

My understanding is that almost anything is allowed in this thread, so long as it isn't guns, religion, or politics. :)

...and maybe Mega Blok! :)

LegoFanTexas

SirKevbags said:

Why is tea called English Breakfast Tea? It's just regular tea. Silly marketing. @LegoFanTexas Treat the Mrs to Ringtons tea http://www.ringtons.co.uk/tea-c1/tea-bags-c2/ringtons-traditional-tea-bags-80-p3

She won't go back. Mine is delivered by the tea van but they do worldwide delivery now. If it's silly money I'll send you some. Wonderful stuff. (Miles off topic but it is THIS thread)

They want £8.50 to ship a £2.59 package of tea. :) To do 10 packages of tea, shipping jumps to £36.99.

Yuck.

My wife actually prefers Australian tea, I get it from https://www.simplyoz.com/ who imports it all from Australia (along with a lot of other stuff she misses)

This is her favorite:

https://www.simplyoz.com/products/australian_foods/vegemite__groceries__beverages/teas/bushells_blue_label_tea

But that is expensive, so what she drinks most of is this:

http://www.amazon.com/Twinings-English-Breakfast-50-Count-Boxes/dp/B000F4F952/

$22.99 delivered with our 20% off subscribe and save discount.

7.6 cents per tea bag, hard to beat that price. :)

LegoFanTexas

LegoFanTexas said:

The more you add the bigger the discount. It starts at 5% and grows to 20%. I forget the number of items you have to buy each month to get to that number, 15 or 20 I think.

Just looked it up...

1-4 subscriptions a month, 5% off

5+ subscriptions a month, 20% off

So just make sure you have 5 items coming a month and get 20% off.

stevemack

I currently have an a-z claim which amazon are allowing in direct contradiction of the buyer terms and conditions they have set, I've refused any refund and asked them for their address to send legal documentation as they don't have a leg to stand on. Yet still they just keep saying please send the buyer a return address!

iluvmyelement

(self removed - found the answer)

doriansdad

LegoFanTexas said:

...and maybe Mega Blok! :)

What?? Oh well here goes....Halo Pelican on sale 50% off at Target B+M for $49.99. Scoop them while you can. $$$.

Basta

doriansdad said:

LegoFanTexas said:

...and maybe Mega Blok! :)

What?? Oh well here goes....Halo Pelican on sale 50% off at Target B+M for $49.99. Scoop them while you can. $$$.

Lol, thanks to the Mega Bloks talk a while back I made my first purchase Yesterday with a Halo UNSC Elephant. Picked it up for $36.70, eBay AU suggests $180-$220 is possible, but should be an easy flip for $100+ so I couldn't resist.

Yes I did feel a little dirty and like every one was judging me while walking back to the car with the box under my arms. :p

Pacific493

legoprods said:

Shall I ask a question to our particular reseller hive mind here. Do products on amazon actually sell? Like, are you actually going to sell a VW Van for 160$/€ on amazon, series 10 packs for 8$ a piece, etc.? Is it worth giving a shot, or will it be a loss of time?

LFT has covered Amazon pretty well, but I wanted to add a few things. If you are just getting started on Amazon and are a casual reseller, it will be a waste of time. As a non-featured seller, you basically have to have the absolute lowest price on a set for it to sell. However, if you waste enough time as a non-featured seller and score enough good sales to become a featured seller, things get a lot more interesting. Once you're a featured seller, it is a lot easier to get the buy box and, when that happens, sets can sell like hotcakes, particularly during the holiday season. It can take a while to land featured seller status and can be pretty frustrating getting there, but it's totally worth it if you are serious about reselling and have a lot of product to sell. However, it's not all sunshine and roses. When I went from being a non-featured seller to a featured seller, I went from selling maybe 1-5 sets on Amazon per week to selling 20-40 sets per day every day for weeks on end. You may be saying that's not a bad problem to have and it's not, but it was a total pain in the a** when I had to shift gears from a leisurely pace of sales to an incredibly demanding pace of sales. In my mind, the bottom line is that it is worth it if you want to be a serious reseller, but not worth it if you are just a casual reseller.

vasp

Longtime lurker, but first post.
Let me start by saying Hello to everyone here.

There is no featured or non-featured anymore on amazon. Unless you have buy box it doesn't matter anymore. Once buy box is gone the lowest comes up first, which is true for most EOL sets.

nkx1

Does anyone know why so many sets at [email protected] are "Out of stock, expected ship date 12 Jan 2014"?

Here's one of numerous examples: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/R2-D2-10225

Is everyone on vacation? How can so many sets miraculously be available on 1/12/14? Maybe that's the day a Maersk container ship delivers 100,000 sets to Lego...

LegoFanTexas

^ My local LEGO store is also wiped out, and that is about the date they are expecting most of their restocks. Next Monday (the 6th) they are expecting a smaller shipment, but it is the 13th that they said they would be getting their large restock.

BTW, when I say wiped out, I mean wiped out. Even the SSDs were all gone. :) In Super Heroes, they had exactly 2 sets left, total, in the whole store. When I walked in I thought I was in the wrong store for a minute.

nkx1

A nearby store to me was also wiped out of most Super Heroes sets last week(Downtown Disney Anaheim). Good to know regarding the restocks at the store. Might have to stop in to see if they get on last shipment of #6864 Batmobile (highly doubt it).

The reason I was wondering is that I wanted to buy #7965 Millennium Falcon. Like many of the 2012 Star Wars and Super Hero sets, it seems to be fading quickly from retail stores. I have a coupon for Barnes & Noble and saw one yesterday, but didn't buy it for some reason (opted for a different set). I went back today looking for it, and of course it was gone! [email protected] seems to be about the only place that has it for a reasonable price, but it too isn't in stock until 1/12. I don't want to miss out on this set if it retires soon.

starwarfan77

@nkx1 : #7965 is in target and walmart for $139. at least i saw 1 in each... if you want it there is still hope :P

LegoFanTexas

#7965 is not retiring, as far as I know, it is just out of stock everywhere and not a high production priority, but it should be back within a few weeks.

If anyone has other information, by all means, speak up. :)

Gavin83

I've actually stayed in the Marina Bay Sands hotel. Sadly it was before this set was released :-(

Farmer_John

I like #21013 and think it will do well once it's EOL'd. In fact, I would like to see TLG do the same thing with #21013 that it has done with #10234...produce a much larger and more ornate model. The clock face is the most expensive component to MOC this model, but Bricklink currently has these from #10224 for a surprisingly reasonable price...considering there is only one clock face per TH set.

madforLEGO

LegoFanTexas said:

^ My local LEGO store is also wiped out, and that is about the date they are expecting most of their restocks. Next Monday (the 6th) they are expecting a smaller shipment, but it is the 13th that they said they would be getting their large restock.

BTW, when I say wiped out, I mean wiped out. Even the SSDs were all gone. :) In Super Heroes, they had exactly 2 sets left, total, in the whole store. When I walked in I thought I was in the wrong store for a minute.

Yeah, went to the LEGO store after Christmas to use my $10 gift cards for a log truck and a auto carrier and they y were both sold out at the store.. So I picked up a WVM for $80 which they had plenty of (and guessing they will start dropping in price shortly).
But it seems most of the Exclusives were still plenty on the shelf by the store I go to.. hint hint LEGO.

Also, most of the TLG is now 'sold out', only the Comanche camp is left.
Unimog is back to 'call for ..availability' on LEGOs site. (TRU has them now at 229.99, likely due to the spend 60 and get 15 off promo they are doing)

jcb193

Farmer_John said:

I like #21013 and think it will do well once it's EOL'd. In fact, I would like to see TLG do the same thing with #21013 that it has done with #10234...produce a much larger and more ornate model. The clock face is the most expensive component to MOC this model, but Bricklink currently has these from #10224 for a surprisingly reasonable price...considering there is only one clock face per TH set.

I think Big Ben is iconic enough for the full set treatment. how cool would a technics clock be!

I know it will never happen, but I am dying for a creator level Gothic church...someday....

prevere

^I think they might test a cathedral first in the architecture series. It needs 3,000 parts for a full proper treatment.

gmpirate

^ I think Lego has an aversion to things religious.

LegoFanTexas

gmpirate said:

^ I think Lego has an aversion to things religious.

And that's a shame, given that more than half the people on this planet believe in one religion or another.

So why not do a trifectia...

Do a Church, a Mosque, and a Buddhist Temple, all released at the same time, all at about the same size/part count. That should avoid any "you're playing favorites" and it gives everyone something to buy.

If they did a nice 2,000 part Church, it would probably be the first ever set my mother builds and displays in her house.

madforLEGO

LegoFanTexas said:

gmpirate said:

^ I think Lego has an aversion to things religious.

And that's a shame, given that more than half the people on this planet believe in one religion or another.

So why not do a trifectia...

Do a Church, a Mosque, and a Buddhist Temple, all released at the same time, all at about the same size/part count. That should avoid any "you're playing favorites" and it gives everyone something to buy.

If they did a nice 2,000 part Church, it would probably be the first ever set my mother builds and displays in her house.

Simple reasons why this will almost NEVER occur. Most importantly (and helping me make my point) you forgot all major religions by forgetting synagogues and Hindu Temples (and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few as well). There are more than three major religions. Leave one out, and it is a hornets nest kicked.
Also, you cannot please all the people all the time, and all religious groups have members that are a bit zealous when you try to portray their religion, even if it is a 'positive' light. What may appease many will irritate the other groups or even in their own religion, and then you get to the Atheists which is a whole other potential issue.
I can see why LEGO tries to stay away as I think it would be too much of a hassle. Also you may just turn off parents that do not want their kids toys having religious undertones, even if only one set, or a group of sets.
Extremist Christians may not like LEGO making Mosques for Muslims.
Extremist Muslims feeling TLG are making a mockery of their religion as a toy.

No different than trying a 'war' theme in LEGO IMO. You will likely irritate more people with it than if you avoid it (even though LEGO has danced around army type LEGO in the past).

MathBuilder

re: Major religions.
I recommend watching the 5th episode of Babylon 5 series 1: The Parliament of Dreams. At least the ending.

LegoFanTexas

madforLEGO said:

Simple reasons why this will almost NEVER occur. Most importantly (and helping me make my point) you forgot all major religions by forgetting synagogues and Hindu Temples (and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few as well). There are more than three major religions. Leave one out, and it is a hornets nest kicked.

Forgive me for lumping Hindu and Buddhism together, I always in my mind put the two together, but if they are not, then I'm sorry. No offense was intended.

As for extremists, I always thought the world would be better off if everyone just ignored them. But that's just me. You do make fair points.

CCC

SirKevbags said:

Why is tea called English Breakfast Tea? It's just regular tea. Silly marketing. @LegoFanTexas Treat the Mrs to Ringtons tea http://www.ringtons.co.uk/tea-c1/tea-bags-c2/ringtons-traditional-tea-bags-80-p3

Because it is similar to the blend that used to be drunk at breakfast time, whereas lighter blends used to be drunk in the afternoons.

And my vote goes for Taylor's of Harrogate tea, with their Yorkshire tea for everyday use.

pharmjod

Of course Playmobil makes / made a nativity set every year and the world didn't end. They seem to be doing ok as a company :)

prevere

WVC showed up at $80 on [email protected] with "call to check"...called and it's checked out for good they said.

cbaker1974

We've already got a mosque! According to folks in the past, it is #9516 :)