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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    Billybrown said:

    Paid £80 for each of my #10197's and already going for 2 x what I paid.

    just so you don't all get too excited..

    If you sell on amazon at : £166.14 (including postage)
    Your amazon earnings are: £136.96, then post cost me £14.67
    gives me £125.29
    not exactly a massive profit!


  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 928
    £45.29 Profit is still profit!
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    ^yes if you got it for £80, but most got it for £99
    I think people are only buying these now because they have seen the rise in other modulars and dont want to miss out... but with so many resellers I dont think it will reach much over £200 for another 3 years or so.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 928
    £26.29 is still profit too :) Depends what you want to make on them I guess over what period!
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    Just want people to do the numbers. If your limited on cash and space there might be better options.

  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Or sell them on here and have no fee's.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    edited January 2014
    UKtsumi said:

    Billybrown said:

    Paid £80 for each of my #10197's and already going for 2 x what I paid.

    just so you don't all get too excited..

    If you sell on amazon at : £166.14 (including postage)
    Your amazon earnings are: £136.96, then post cost me £14.67
    gives me £125.29
    not exactly a massive profit
    If you bought them for 90 GBP at John Lewis about a month ago then it's a nice short term flip. Also price is now 180 GBP on Amazon UK.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    UKtsumi said:

    Billybrown said:

    Paid £80 for each of my #10197's and already going for 2 x what I paid.

    just so you don't all get too excited..

    If you sell on amazon at : £166.14 (including postage)
    Your amazon earnings are: £136.96, then post cost me £14.67
    gives me £125.29
    not exactly a massive profit!


    Then the taxman takes his cut....assuming you guys that are buying to resell do fill in a tax return??

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,001
    edited January 2014
    LegoFanTexas said:

    #6862 is not retiring, as far as I know, [email protected] has it in stock and it seems to still be around.

    #6865 will do well, but frankly it has already done as well as I expect it to, does anyone really see this climbing higher?

    #6867 - This set is just blah to me, it also probably has reached the top.

    Funny how some sets do that really fast, others take a year.

    Do keep in mind that the prices posted include shipping and don't include fees, the actual net price after all that is a whole lot less.

    Also, you have to move a bunch of them to make any real money.

    #6862 If the figures are not in any other sets coming up and it goes away I see it rising. Id rather have the 'classic' Superman than the one for the movies.

    #6865 : Isn't Cap America being redone with his motorcycle in a new set? If so I do not see this one rising much.

    #6867 : All depends on if any of these figures are being redone in the next line. (with Iron Man being the exception due to all of the sets he is in)

    Really any of these sets depend on if they are being redone or the figures are being put into a new set. Same as SW lines IMO.
    Same can be also said for #6858
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    Hardrada said:


    [...]Btw why was the Fire Brigade so damn cheap in the UK? I see that its RRP was 100 GBP compared to 133 GBP of the GE. Everywhere else the two had the same RRP. It's as if FB was on a 20% permanent discount to begin with. (Btw Pet Shop also has a slightly reduced RRP in the UK. That also should be at the same RRP as GE and be more expensive than PC.)

    I cannot answer to your question but what I wanted to say is: For Star Wars theme it is the same: RRP for #10188 is 275 GBP (320€) and e.g. 10221 is 350 GBP (410€). In germany both are at 400€ (DS even 20€ above)

  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    edited January 2014
    prevere said:

    ^Never heard of that place before, or previously mentioned. Has anyone bought from them before? Looks a bit sketchy.

    IP lookup does not look good at all, registered in PA but tech support in Ukraine ;)

    WHOIS information for artbrickshop.com:***

    [Querying whois.verisign-grs.com]
    [Redirected to whois.PublicDomainRegistry.com]
    [Querying whois.PublicDomainRegistry.com]
    [whois.PublicDomainRegistry.com]
    Domain Name: ARTBRICKSHOP.COM
    Registry Domain ID: 1817579843_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN
    Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.publicdomainregistry.com
    Registrar URL: www.publicdomainregistry.com
    Updated Date: 07-Nov-2013
    Creation Date: 25-Jul-2013
    Registrar Registration Expiration Date: 25-Jul-2014
    Registrar: PDR Ltd. d/b/a PublicDomainRegistry.com
    Registrar IANA ID: 303
    Registrar Abuse Contact Email: [email protected]
    Registrar Abuse Contact Phone: +1-2013775952
    Domain Status: clientTransferProhibited
    Registry Registrant ID: DI_29007796
    Registrant Name: Dovbeta Anna Mikhaylovna
    Registrant Organization: none
    Registrant Street: 701 Ashland ave
    Registrant City: Folcroft
    Registrant State/Province: PA
    Registrant Postal Code: 19032
    Registrant Country: US
    Registrant Phone: +1.8635881674
    Registrant Phone Ext:
    Registrant Fax:
    Registrant Fax Ext:
    Registrant Email: [email protected]
    Registry Admin ID: DI_29007796
    Admin Name: Dovbeta Anna Mikhaylovna
    Admin Organization: none
    Admin Street: 701 Ashland ave
    Admin City: Folcroft
    Admin State/Province: PA
    Admin Postal Code: 19032
    Admin Country: US
    Admin Phone: +1.8635881674
    Admin Phone Ext:
    Admin Fax:
    Admin Fax Ext:
    Admin Email: [email protected]
    Registry Tech ID: DI_25525298
    Tech Name: NIC.UA Hostmaster
    Tech Organization: NIC.UA LLC
    Tech Street: PO BOX 147
    Tech City: KYIV
    Tech State/Province: KYIV
    Tech Postal Code: 04050
    Tech Country: UA
    Tech Phone: +380.442329962
    Tech Phone Ext:
    Tech Fax: +380.445937569
    Tech Fax Ext:
    Tech Email: [email protected]
    Name Server: ns10.uadns.com
    Name Server: ns11.uadns.com
    Name Server: ns12.uadns.com
    DNSSEC:Unsigned
    Registration Service Provided By: DRS.UA
    The data in this whois database is provided to you for information purposes
    only, that is, to assist you in obtaining information about or related to a
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    The compilation, repackaging, dissemination or other use of this data is
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    URL of the ICANN WHOIS Data Problem Reporting System:http://wdprs.internic.net/
    Last update of WHOIS database: Wed Jan 01 19:48:21 GMT 2014
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,815
    As Janice would say, "Oh, my, God!"
    Kanohi
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,919
    Ukraine ... You know when Paypal won't allow payments to process through a country there is a big problem.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    edited January 2014
    ^When you see a website front page with 2011 copyright in 2014 and the website was registered on 7/25/2013, and hosted in Ukraine... I won't touch it with 8-foot pole. ;) I think drop ship is the most you can be expected.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,919
    ^I think I saw somewhere that Lord Business runs that site.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    prevere said:

    ^I think I saw somewhere that Lord Business runs that site.

    Wait a minute, don't bring me into this, I didn't do it, I swear!!! ;)
  • rchaddrchadd Member Posts: 187
    Is the Sopwith Camel due to retire soon or will it be around for another year?
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    I also looked around that ArtBrick site. Seems too good to be true on a lot of those. Wonder what would happen, though, if you bought Fire Brigade for example. Can't be drop-ship, since they can't get that anymore...
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    LegoFanTexas said:

    prevere said:

    ^I think I saw somewhere that Lord Business runs that site.

    Wait a minute, don't bring me into this, I didn't do it, I swear!!! ;)
    You are still in President Business mode.

    Here is Lord Business:
    image

    TWO coffee cups for extra caffeine power
    wagnerml2jasormargotChompersPenkid11prevereLegoFanTexas
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    BTHodgeman said:

    I also looked around that ArtBrick site. Seems too good to be true on a lot of those. Wonder what would happen, though, if you bought Fire Brigade for example. Can't be drop-ship, since they can't get that anymore...

    Tactically they can still do that since there are resellers on Amazon and other sites. Price is not the problem since they use stolen credit card information. Resellers selling on eBay are safer than those on Amazon with regard to preventing dropship scam loss since paypal seller protection restricts shipping to card holder's address.
    BTHodgemanFollowsCloselyChompers
  • DaraghDaragh IrelandMember Posts: 363
    Ok, so I took a chance and ordered a FB, paid by CC and got order confirmation email confirming shipping address and billing address etc., and an email confirming account open and that they will remember my address details and shipping preferences for future orders. My order number was 1013 so with hindsight I assume they started at 1000 and I am "lucky" 13. Should I wait a while and see what happens or try to cancel?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    dragonhawk said:

    You are still in President Business mode.

    Here is Lord Business:
    image

    TWO coffee cups for extra caffeine power

    Oh very well... :)

    I was trying to mask my secret identity! You foiled my plan! :)
    GothamConstructionCo
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,011
    How do those legs stay connected?
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Legs are glued to the brick and slopes.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,919
    ^I am all about the cape. Now I can make a Imperial Royal Guard on steroids.
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 608
    Is #8110 unimog nearing EOL?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Has anyone noticed that some sets seem to be scheduled to be restocked at [email protected], whereas the same sets appear to be on their way out from most other retailers? Is this an example of a last hoorah of sorts before EOL? Could [email protected] be starting to stock sets for longer than retail stores? Or maybe the retail stores are simply out of stock due to Xmas?

    Examples:
    #9492 TIE Fighter: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/TIE-Fighter-9492
    #9500 Sith Fury Class Interceptor: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Sith-Fury-class-Interceptor-9500
    #6860 Batcave: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/The-Batcave-6860
    #9493 X-Wing: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/X-Wing-Starfighter-9493

    Some of these are still in stock at TRU, but other than that, they're mostly gone online from other retailers.
  • DaraghDaragh IrelandMember Posts: 363
    All four have a different status for S&H UK, in that order: Sold Out, Call to Check Stock, Retired Product & Add to Bag for x-wing!
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Interesting, [email protected] says Jabba's Palace is out of stock, but with an expected shipping date of Jan 18th. Don't I recall reading a statement from TLG saying they would end the set in 2013? Or was that an April Fools Day story?
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    edited January 2014
    ^Jabba probably will be the last shipment... It is not the sale leader for the obvious reason... the outrageous RRP.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ they said it's normal lifecycle would come to an end in late 2013. I took that to be merely an estimate at the time. And of course if it is selling, why wouldn't they keep making it? the phoney controversy was 8 months ago and long forgotten
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    dougts said:

    ^ they said it's normal lifecycle would come to an end in late 2013. I took that to be merely an estimate at the time. And of course if it is selling, why wouldn't they keep making it? the phoney controversy was 8 months ago and long forgotten

    Why wouldn't they keep making it? Uh... because they said they wouldn't. Don't get me wrong; I couldn't care less if they make it another 5 years, but their announcement is not forgotten. I feel sure that small-fry resellers that have a closet full of these haven't forgotten what Lego said.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited January 2014
    It's classic PR marketing stuff. They didn't make a hard fast commitment to end it, they said it wasn't current planned to continue beyond 2013. Plans can of course change and LEGO doesn't do EOL announcements and commitments. Nothing really to see here. If anyone took that press release as a firm promise, that was their mistake
    pharmjodBTHodgeman
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    Anyone thinks 853373 LEGO Kingdoms Chess Set? It is on sale $39.98 and sold out on the [email protected] I wonder if it is worth to pick up a few more as it has a lot of figures with weapons etc.
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 514
    ^Where is the chess set on sale at?
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    bricktuary said:

    Is #8110 unimog nearing EOL?

    @bricktuary yes it is
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Has Attack Of The Wargs retired? im struggling to get the Lego page up for some reason and when i do half the left hand side is missing.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    It's on the retiring list, yes.
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    edited January 2014
    What does anyone think #21021, Marina Bay Sands, from the Architecture line will do long term?
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 608
    Snaffled a Unimog from Amazon. I'd kick myself if I didn't.
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    @tom4086 - I don't think the MBS will do that well long-term, simply because it will go unknown to most people. There will be demand from Architecture completionists, but I think that demand already exists and is probably as high as it will get.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I think the Marina Bay Sands is a little bit of a stretch for being architecturally significant, and also for having any mass appeal. 99% of people probably don't even know what country (city) it is in, and I don't think it is known for anything other than having a cool swimming pool. Odd choice for Lego. This was the best they could come up with for Asian architecture? That said, I don't know if any of the pieces are unique or rare, as that could affect it.
    BTHodgeman
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    Shall I ask a question to our particular reseller hive mind here. Do products on amazon actually sell? Like, are you actually going to sell a VW Van for 160$/€ on amazon, series 10 packs for 8$ a piece, etc.? Is it worth giving a shot, or will it be a loss of time?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,919
    Another Amazon note. It is just me or does Amazon seem already out of some of the early 2014 sets and other active sets? The first two Batman sets were almost immediately out of stock. I have a lengthy watch list - and yes, it's post Xmas, but I'm surprised they are still not replenishing quickly.

    And I know third party is available, but I'm just talking about Amazon itself.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    legoprods said:

    Shall I ask a question to our particular reseller hive mind here. Do products on amazon actually sell? Like, are you actually going to sell a VW Van for 160$/€ on amazon, series 10 packs for 8$ a piece, etc.? Is it worth giving a shot, or will it be a loss of time?

    Yes, they do sell...

    However, you need to understand Amazon before you dive in. You will have a much higher rate of returns on those items than you will on others, as people click and buy without much research, then get upset when they discover they overpaid.

    In the case of the VW Bus, since it is a current product, you'll get complaints of being "ripped off", and since buyers can return for any reason within 30 days, you have to take it back.

    If they open it, you can charge a 20% restocking fee, but still have to take it back. You also get a lot more negative feedback from those customers. Or they ask you to price match the "proper price".

    Selling on Amazon is selling to a retail buyer, mostly moms and grandmas, who don't understand retired and rare LEGO, they expect service and to be treated as well as Amazon would treat them.

    Are you prepared to offer that level of service?

    Another point to consider, the A-to-Z guarantee. If you sell something under $300, if the customer gets upset and demands a return and you hedge and say something like, "I'm not a retail store, you got what you paid for", or "I won't take it back if it is opened", then the customer files a claim with Amazon, Amazon will, as often as not, refund the customer, out of your pocket, and let them keep the item.

    If anyone is thinking of selling on Amazon, go spend an hour reading the seller forums on Amazon and see if it is for you. It isn't ebay. :)

    https://sellercentral.amazon.com/forums/category.jspa?categoryID=2
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    jcb193 said:

    I think the Marina Bay Sands is a little bit of a stretch for being architecturally significant, and also for having any mass appeal. 99% of people probably don't even know what country (city) it is in, and I don't think it is known for anything other than having a cool swimming pool. Odd choice for Lego. This was the best they could come up with for Asian architecture? That said, I don't know if any of the pieces are unique or rare, as that could affect it.

    I had not even heard of this set, if that tells you anything. :)

    Now that I see it, I still don't care. :)
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @legoprods - I looked into it and Amazon's fees are so high that those prices are almost necessary to make anything. I'm sure @LFT or @Doriansdad could chime in because I know they do some pretty good volume, but Amazon's fees and TOS seemed way to high for me.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    wagnerml2 said:

    @legoprods - I looked into it and Amazon's fees are so high that those prices are almost necessary to make anything. I'm sure @LFT or @Doriansdad could chime in because I know they do some pretty good volume, but Amazon's fees and TOS seemed way to high for me.

    :). Yep, read the Amazon seller forums for a bit, lots of new sellers who sold something and never bothered to do the math on the fees are bitching and moaning that they aren't making anything.

    Take 15% off $169, then consider you have to pay shipping. Subtract that from what you paid for it, then consider Amazon's customer service policies...

    Then ask if it is worth it.

    The sellers who do it well, do volume, that is really the only way to absorb the returns and complaints. It also helps if you can buy tax free, since that puts a huge dent into it as well.

    BTW, In the US, Amazon requires your tax info at just 50 transactions. They claim they won't turn your sales over to the IRS if you don't hit 200, but nothing stops them from doing so. The law only requires it at 200, nothing says they can't at 50.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    Cheers for the words of advice. I may follow up if I ever sell anything, and how it goes. Indeed, I remember seeing your "this ain't eBay" thread as well as some other horror stories. Knock on wood!
  • haakonohaakono Member Posts: 62
    @legoprods, I used to sell new sets on Bricklink, but found I was mostly drop-shipping for ebay/amazon sellers. I switched to selling on amazon 3 years ago, and have done much better there. Some people are willing to pay a premium for the A-to-Z guarantee.

    I've run into a few problem buyers, but nothing like I found on ebay. One nice benefit is that amazon has covered all 'charge back' issues I've had. And yes, like LFT says, you do have to accept all returns. I fulfill all my own orders, and I've had a much lower return rate than I expected when I started.

    Good luck.
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