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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Hit our local Wally World this morning...unfortunately not a single set on sale including those being EOL'd. I'm not surprised...disappointed...but not surprised.

    The highlight of our shopping trip was that we ended up purchasing several tubes of candy cane/peppermint chapstick (only sold this time of year) instead. In short...kind of a depressing day!
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    I made trips to a few local Walmarts this weekend. The only set I found on sale was #9473 Mines of Moria for about $55 at one location. I passed.

    One employee I spoke with confirmed that the semi-annual markdowns occur in late January and early February (which most of us already know anyway).

    I also visited a few Target stores. I bought one #9500 Fury Class Interceptor for $62. They had two, but one weighed about a third of the one I bought and had tampered-with seals (obviously it had been looted).

    #9500 doesn't seem to have been discounted significantly over it's lifetime, at least from what I've noticed. It seems like it might do ok. It's a cool-looking model.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    #9500 is a cool model, I've built it, being a fan of SWTOR...

    It is solid and swooshable, kinda like a TIE, but not really, something else... but the same idea clearly...

    But...

    It is not just EU, but obscure EU. Look at how well (or rather not) TIE Defender did.

    Once #9500 passes into history, the number of people who will remember or care will be small. Yes, SWTOR fans do include LEGO fans, yes some of them will want one, but are the numbers large enough to drive aftermarket demand?

    I have exactly 4 of that set put back, just in case, but frankly I don't expect anything.
    nkx1
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    It's a really well designed model, very cool looking, clearly Star Wars, good sized while being solid and swooshable. really really like this LEGO set.

    for reselling purposes it pretty much sucks. price to minifigure ratio is really bad, and the minifigure selection makes it worse.
    nkx1
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Speaking of minifigs, long term, the Ewok Village strikes me as the obvious winner. Of course, since it is obvious and since it may well be out 5 years like DS, that may mean nothing. :)

    Anyone want to take bets on if DS will actually go out sometime in 2014?
  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    edited December 2013
    nkx1 said:

    #9500 doesn't seem to have been discounted significantly over it's lifetime, at least from what I've noticed. It seems like it might do ok. It's a cool-looking model.


    In Germany you have hardly ever seen it for RRP. It has been discounted since it came out and is still sitting on the shelves for 40% off now! It's good looking, a great build and Darth Malgus is awesome but it just looks way too small for the price. And it's not a must-have for a SW fan!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ The ship is bigger once built than the box would lead you to believe, or at least I think so anyway.

    It isn't a must have for a SW fan, just for a SWTOR fan.

    SWTOR, for those who don't know, is a MMORPG, like World of Warcraft, just for Star Wars. Set 3,500 years before the movies we all know (and love or hate), it takes place in a time when Sith number in their thousands, rivaling the Jedi and making for a more evenly matched civil war. You can play on both sides and frankly there is a ton of story content there.

    It is also free to play, but you will need to spend at least a few dollars ($20 gets you a reasonable amount actually) to unlock a few things that make it much easier to live with, but at least you can try it for free. :)

    One nice thing... most of the stuff you can spend "real money" on in the game, can also be earned in game and purchased with in game credits. So either grind and get stuff for "free", or pay cash and skip the grinding. :)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    10229 officially labeled as "retired product" on overseas [email protected]
  • KumbazoKumbazo Member Posts: 24
    Do the "Availability" dates on Brickset fluctuate as time goes on? On Brickset, the original Minecraft 21102 says that it is no longer available at [email protected] However, [email protected] lists it as coming back in stock in January. Just wondering how literal I should be with the dates listed and if they will change if the item does come back in stock.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    I dont think #9500 is going to be a money maker. It's a cool ship but is it cool enough for somebody to pay 2xMSRP ($180 USD) ? Not likely. I could see maybe $120.00 which would work if you were able to snag it on sale.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    edited December 2013
    Havent talked about #6868 much. I was able to turn a nice profit on that set last month but I think that the new #76018 will keep it from doing much better than it is right now.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    FB sold on ebay UK for £180 yesterday and now the cheapest is £190.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    ecmo47 said:

    Havent talked about #6868 much. I was able to turn a nice profit on that set last month but I think that the new #76018 will keep it from doing much better than it is right now.

    Non-sense. Nothing compares to a purple-pants Hulk.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    JamesJT said:

    FB sold on ebay UK for £180 yesterday and now the cheapest is £190.

    Then they'll hit a price point what people are waiting for and more will appear on the market which will hold the price back for a while. I'm in no rush to start moving mine, I've sat on them long enough, another lifetime won't matter. I honestly don't think there is as many of these stashed as what people think, certainly in the UK.

    FollowsCloselyDougoutChompers
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited December 2013
    Dad said:

    JamesJT said:

    FB sold on ebay UK for £180 yesterday and now the cheapest is £190.

    Then they'll hit a price point what people are waiting for and more will appear on the market which will hold the price back for a while. I'm in no rush to start moving mine, I've sat on them long enough, another lifetime won't matter. I honestly don't think there is as many of these stashed as what people think, certainly in the UK.

    I have 15 of the FB put away in the loft, which might sound a lot, but for me I dont think I went that heavy on them. I set myself a limit at 15 and that was due to the extended production run. Maybe other re-sellers will have thought the same so there arnt as many on the secondary market as anticipated. I think we could be looking at the £300 mark by the second week of Dec 2014. Coming back down to £250 Jan - Feb 2015, then rising up towards the £450 mark by Christmas 2015.

    FollowsClosely
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    @Kumbazo: Brickset scrapes a web feed of products from Shop at Home to figure out the availability date. When a product no longer appears in the feed it is treated as the end date of availability and there isn't a distinction between being temporarily out of stock or discontinued.
    Kumbazo
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    JamesJT said:

    FB sold on ebay UK for £180 yesterday and now the cheapest is £190.

    Fits to prices in germany: The last weekend all FB on ebay were sold for ~230€
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2013
    Dad said:

    Then they'll hit a price point what people are waiting for and more will appear on the market which will hold the price back for a while. I'm in no rush to start moving mine, I've sat on them long enough, another lifetime won't matter. I honestly don't think there is as many of these stashed as what people think, certainly in the UK.

    Actually, I think if you purchased your FBs below RRP you will do quite well...and it may not take that long to achieve some nice profits. I wouldn't have said this a year ago, but now that TLG is holding back on discounting exclusive sets all bets are off. TLG's new sales tactic (i.e., no sales) can only help the FB post EOL...
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,806
    edited December 2013
    That and again the FB is a fire station and will likely not be forgotten and will be sought after for a long time.
    Though FB in the US are only $210-$220 USD on eBay (they are hitting 229, but with free shipping)

    So the Mini Modular set is now hitting $80-$100 USD on eBay... Did not see that coming.
    BTHodgeman
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    ^Exactly! I got a few messages from others after posting that I bought the Mini Mod for $53, asking if I had any extras for sale, offering $100.

    I also didn't expect that. I bought it thinking that it would be a good gift to a friend...
  • adventure_aladventure_al Scotland Member Posts: 243
    Is the Fire Brigade really sought after above RRP?

    Its commonly available off the shelf in my area for £99. Should I get a few?
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    ^ I just sold FB at $260 with free shipping. The price seems to keep going up even shortly after Christmas.

    I have about 10 mini modular sets and will hold another year before I sell any.

    I thought Lego reselling is a downhill as too many resellers out there but the market seems still strong if you pick right sets which is really hard to do. I never saw Architecture Studio coming. It's now over $400 level. Just crazy..
  • adventure_aladventure_al Scotland Member Posts: 243
    and we are talking about 10197 ?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815

    ^Exactly! I got a few messages from others after posting that I bought the Mini Mod for $53, asking if I had any extras for sale, offering $100.

    I also didn't expect that. I bought it thinking that it would be a good gift to a friend...

    Regarding the Mini Modulars I always fancied that to do ok. I know its easy to say that now but I built them and it was a great little build. One each night for 5 nights. I also thought that once GE goes it may be an alternative, if only temporary, for those just getting into the modulars, that they can have the first 5 in this series whilst they source the big brothers.



  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    Is the Fire Brigade really sought after above RRP?

    Its commonly available off the shelf in my area for £99. Should I get a few?

    Take an arctic wagon and fill it up is my advise. This baby will hit £300 easily by christmas (2014)

  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    ^ I remember the same being said about #41999...
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    edited December 2013
    I don't think it's fair to compare 41999 to 10197.

    10197 was available for more than 4 years, while 41999 was only available for a couple of months. Also, 41999 was strictly limited in quantity and 10197 was not.

    Those factors alone should make the long-term value of 41999 much higher than 10197, even considering that 10197 will get an automatic lift since it's part of the Modular line.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    Even though 41999 may not have experienced as meteoric of a rise as some had hoped, they're still selling for $350 shipped currently in the US. That's about $50-$75 profit depending on your tax rate and shipping costs. It could be worse...
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    tom4086 said:

    ^ I remember the same being said about #41999...

    And Imperial Shuttle......And Vampyre Castle...

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    nkx1 said:

    It could be worse...

    Yes you could have paid top dollar for a thousand of them from other resellers....it was fun being part of the Funky Bunch in 2013 :)

    FollowsCloselyLegoManiacc
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ Timing and patience...Timing and patience.......That was a case of bad timing and no patience! Or for the seller good timing and no patience!!
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 868
    Is architectural studio a bubble? A fluke? A temporary Christmas bump that will pass?
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633

    Is architectural studio a bubble? A fluke? A temporary Christmas bump that will pass?

    The Zombies set of 2013

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Happy New Year to all of my LEGO friends. In your opinion, what was the surprise set of 2013? Surprising based on whatever criteria you prefer to use. For me it was Super Heroes Wolverine's Chopper Showdown, Set 6866. That was probably my biggest money maker in 2013 percentage and time (since it EOL's) wise. It shot up a lot and quickly. I had 20 of them and wished I had 200! :-) And, I now wonder if I should have kept half of them. Will they get to $50 a set? And, if so, how quickly. Will be a fun one to watch.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    Is the Fire Brigade really sought after above RRP?

    Its commonly available off the shelf in my area for £99. Should I get a few?

    Take an arctic wagon and fill it up is my advise. This baby will hit £300 easily by christmas (2014)

    Seems like rather wishful thinking there Billy

    Remember all those 10212's you bought which you had to offload on here cos they didnt do as well as you'd hoped? :D

    With a loooong drawn out shelf life and numerous EOL scares it certainly hasnt got alot going for it.


  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    how about
    #6865 it reached $30+ already
    #6858 @ $21 ... S&H was selling this one for $10.48 even after black friday
    #6862 @ $29.99 .. target had it for $12 like a week or two ago....
    #6867 @ $34.95 ... it was @ walmart for 14.99 like 2-3 weeks ago....
    cloaked7 said:

    Happy New Year to all of my LEGO friends. In your opinion, what was the surprise set of 2013? Surprising based on whatever criteria you prefer to use. For me it was Super Heroes Wolverine's Chopper Showdown, Set 6866. That was probably my biggest money maker in 2013 percentage and time (since it EOL's) wise. It shot up a lot and quickly. I had 20 of them and wished I had 200! :-) And, I now wonder if I should have kept half of them. Will they get to $50 a set? And, if so, how quickly. Will be a fun one to watch.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    #6862 is not retiring, as far as I know, [email protected] has it in stock and it seems to still be around.

    #6865 will do well, but frankly it has already done as well as I expect it to, does anyone really see this climbing higher?

    #6867 - This set is just blah to me, it also probably has reached the top.

    Funny how some sets do that really fast, others take a year.

    Do keep in mind that the prices posted include shipping and don't include fees, the actual net price after all that is a whole lot less.

    Also, you have to move a bunch of them to make any real money.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited January 2014

    Is the Fire Brigade really sought after above RRP?

    Its commonly available off the shelf in my area for £99. Should I get a few?

    Take an arctic wagon and fill it up is my advise. This baby will hit £300 easily by christmas (2014)

    Seems like rather wishful thinking there Billy

    Remember all those 10212's you bought which you had to offload on here cos they didnt do as well as you'd hoped? :D

    With a loooong drawn out shelf life and numerous EOL scares it certainly hasnt got alot going for it.


    Well yes 10212 was 1 set that I did go over board on, and I still have 31 if them. I feel that 10197 is a different animal altogether though and although it didnt seem logical for me to stock up on these pre-chistmas, it seems like this has been under estimated, even with the 4 year life span. Paid £80 for each of my #10197's and already going for 2 x what I paid. As opposed to the £160 mark I paid for #10212's and Im struggling to get £300, 12 Months on.

    So even though I didn't end up getting substantial discounts for #10197 I can still flip them for great margins. So if you can park up an arctic wagon and have space to store those stunning #10197's then I say go for it :-)

    All we need now is for the guy that bought those 100's of #41999's to buy back al #10197's. ;-) and we could be looking at £300-£350 by Christmas :-)
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    The guy that bought all the #41999s is currently clearing eBay of all the Zombies sets....go figure.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439


    Well yes 10212 was 1 set that I did go over board on, and I still have 31 if them. I feel that 10197 is a different animal altogether though and although it didnt seem logical for me to stock up on these pre-chistmas, it seems like this has been under estimated, even with the 4 year life span. Paid £80 for each of my #10197's and already going for 2 x what I paid. As opposed to the £160 mark I paid for #10212's and Im struggling to get £300, 12 Months on.

    So even though I didn't end up getting substantial discounts for #10197 I can still flip them for great margins.

    80 GBP is like 38% off from the European RRP (of 150 EUR). I'd call that a pretty substantial discount. Over here it was not even once available for such a low price throughout its shelf life. Lowest was about 117 EUR (100 GBP).

    Btw why was the Fire Brigade so damn cheap in the UK? I see that its RRP was 100 GBP compared to 133 GBP of the GE. Everywhere else the two had the same RRP. It's as if FB was on a 20% permanent discount to begin with. (Btw Pet Shop also has a slightly reduced RRP in the UK. That also should be at the same RRP as GE and be more expensive than PC.)

    So if you bought it at 10-20% off the UK RRP then you have a very significant price advantage over other European resellers. It's hard to not do well with them this way...
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Best set of 2013 was #40079 - a free set that now sells for £30+.
    juggles7BTHodgemanjasor
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    Hardrada said:


    Well yes 10212 was 1 set that I did go over board on, and I still have 31 if them. I feel that 10197 is a different animal altogether though and although it didnt seem logical for me to stock up on these pre-chistmas, it seems like this has been under estimated, even with the 4 year life span. Paid £80 for each of my #10197's and already going for 2 x what I paid. As opposed to the £160 mark I paid for #10212's and Im struggling to get £300, 12 Months on.

    So even though I didn't end up getting substantial discounts for #10197 I can still flip them for great margins.

    80 GBP is like 38% off from the European RRP (of 150 EUR). I'd call that a pretty substantial discount. Over here it was not even once available for such a low price throughout its shelf life. Lowest was about 117 EUR (100 GBP).

    Btw why was the Fire Brigade so damn cheap in the UK? I see that its RRP was 100 GBP compared to 133 GBP of the GE. Everywhere else the two had the same RRP. It's as if FB was on a 20% permanent discount to begin with. (Btw Pet Shop also has a slightly reduced RRP in the UK. That also should be at the same RRP as GE and be more expensive than PC.)

    So if you bought it at 10-20% off the UK RRP then you have a very significant price advantage over other European resellers. It's hard to not do well with them this way...
    The FB was released in a different age, a time when us Brits could get 1.5euro to the pound and therefore £100 equates to €150. On its release most would have judged the prices to be fair based on the exchange rate.

    Not 100% sure on the release year of GE but if the European RRP is €150, then for a year or so, the European market would have had an advantage over the UK on buying them.

    Swings and roundabouts.
    6 of one and half a dozen of the other
    Etc
  • BalloonistBalloonist Member Posts: 54
    10197 still available from artbrickshop.com?? Import duty to UK about £20 so a little above RRP for those without
  • xeeeejxeeeej Member Posts: 71
    Has anyone ordered anything from that site before?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    ^Never heard of that place before, or previously mentioned. Has anyone bought from them before? Looks a bit sketchy.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 914
    Yup, claims to have a 'warehouse' in Europe but ships from usa?
  • chrisyndchrisynd Member Posts: 4
    ^ Did some sleuthing. Looks very sketchy. Seems to operate a larger business under NVA International Shipping, though. Shot them an FB msg to see if/who answers. Someone could try the phone. Will post any response.
  • DaraghDaragh IrelandMember Posts: 363
    I only found them this morning by chance and order an FB with free delivery to Ireland. Some great prices, if the pack well and there are no other problems. I will update when (if) FB arrives.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 914
    Great prices are usually too good to be true
    madforLEGO
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 914
    They are on bricklink with zero feedback http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?p=artbrickstore
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